Qld 2020 Queensland Election - October 31

[Bomberboyokay]

2020 State General Election | Electoral Commission of Queensland

View event information about the 2020 State General Election.

www.ecq.qld.gov.au

All 93 seats are on the line in QLD's unicameral parliament. Labor government has 48 seats. Liberal National Party has 38. Katter's Australian Party 3. One Nation 1. Greens 1. North Queensland First 1. 1 independent.

Vote Greens

Queensland Greens | Queensland Greens

greens.org.au

 

[Kram]

Queenslanders put Greens last on ballot paper

 

[campbell]

Independent. 1
LNP last.

 

[Goroyals22]

Liberals first.
ON Second.

Greens last if they even bother fielding as its not an inner city seat.

 

[Caesar]

Be interesting to see what happens with the Greens this election. Despite the bad press about Adani, the last couple of state and federal polls have been a relative high water mark for their vote.

I could be wrong, but it feels like like the LNP aren’t popular enough in Brisbane to take government.

DaRick

 

[DaRick]

Be interesting to see what happens with the Greens this election. Despite the bad press about Adani, the last couple of state and federal polls have been a relative high water mark for their vote.

I could be wrong, but it feels like like the LNP aren’t popular enough in Brisbane to take government.

DaRick

Yeah I don't see how the LNP wins this state election. For that to happen, I reckon the following would have to be true:

1) A rural LNP candidate (Frecklington) would have to do fairly well in Brisbane, which hasn't happened before. For example, Springborg failed precisely because he was unable to get anywhere in Brisbane. Borbidge and Newman were urban candidates.

2) There would have to be a lot of anger with the ALP/Palaszczuk in Brisbane. Palaszczuk is widely disliked outside of Brisbane, but I don't think she is within it. Queenslanders have not only approved of how she's handled COVID, but the border closures as well. I can't imagine that people in Brisbane feel any differently given that Brisbane has borne the brunt of COVID in this state. The incumbents who lost power (Goss, Borbidge, Bligh, Newman) all did something to annoy people in Brisbane - with Goss, it was the Logan Highway and his association with Keating. With Borbidge, it was his association with ON. With Bligh, it was asset sales combined with Newman's (then) popularity within Brisbane. With Newman, it was a million things.

3) There would not only have to be a large swing against the ALP, but the swing would also have to benefit the LNP. All five election winners since 1989 (Goss, Borbidge, Beattie, Newman, Palasczcuk) enjoyed large to massive swings. There's no evidence that this will happen this time, and it would be very unusual if Frecklington snuck in on the basis of a mild to moderate swing. That's the norm in Victoria, but it isn't up here.

I personally think that the decline in the QLD ALP's primary vote is down to two things: 1) the Greens and 2) her lack of popularity outside Brisbane. I can't imagine the Greens preferencing a rural LNP candidate in a thousand years - rural LNP types and Greenies tend to be allergic to one another - so I can't imagine the Greens winning votes will bother the ALP much. Palasczcuk's lack of popularity outside Brisbane is an issue but many seats outside of Brisbane are already held by the LNP, so that doesn't necessarily help them. Getting large swings in seats you already hold does nothing to win you an election, as Bill Shorten would doubtless tell you.

 

[campbell]

I would hate to have Deb Frecklington Navigating this pandemic.
She has nfi.

 

[Borisdog]

Puddleduck will win handsomely, but doesn’t deserve to.

The other mob are a rabble.

Puddleduck has handled COVID well for the South East though, it’s the “ One size fits all “ approach that’s pissed off the rest of the state.

 

[DaRick]

Puddleduck will win handsomely, but doesn’t deserve to.

The other mob are a rabble.

Puddleduck has handled COVID well for the South East though, it’s the “ One size fits all “ approach that’s pissed off the rest of the state.

Even when in government, the QLD LNP have been a rabble since Ahern's departure in 1989.

 

[DaRick]

Puddleduck will win handsomely, but doesn’t deserve to.

The other mob are a rabble.

Puddleduck has handled COVID well for the South East though, it’s the “ One size fits all “ approach that’s pissed off the rest of the state.

Borisdog

I know Palaszczuk is not popular outside of Brisbane, so how do Queenslanders from your neck of the woods feel about her? As they as angry with her as I thought that they might be? How do you think that will affect the election? Will it be enough to get the LNP into minority government (very unlikely from my POV). Moreover, how has Deb Frecklington been? Has she been campaigning around these areas that display discontent against Annastacia, or is she just a functionary who will take the fall and let a more dangerous opponent take over?

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Puddleduck will win handsomely, but doesn’t deserve to.

The other mob are a rabble.

Puddleduck has handled COVID well for the South East though, it’s the “ One size fits all “ approach that’s pissed off the rest of the state.

"Puddleduck"?

 

[Bomberboyokay]

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...land-mp-dismisses-renewable-energy-as-fantasy

 

[Borisdog]

"Puddleduck"?

That's her nickname here in QLD.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

That's her nickname here in QLD.

First I've heard it

 

[Caesar]

She has a million nicknames, mostly because nobody can bother to learn how to spell Palaszczuk.

 

[Borisdog]

Borisdog

I know Palaszczuk is not popular outside of Brisbane, so how do Queenslanders from your neck of the woods feel about her? As they as angry with her as I thought that they might be? How do you think that will affect the election? Will it be enough to get the LNP into minority government (very unlikely from my POV). Moreover, how has Deb Frecklington been? Has she been campaigning around these areas that display discontent against Annastacia, or is she just a functionary who will take the fall and let a more dangerous opponent take over?

My wife is tied into the local ALP and word has it the they're quite worried about holding any of the Townsville related seats, which are Townsville, Mundingburra and Thuringowa. The safest of those is Thuringowa - I'd be real surprised if they lost that one. The other two are always close.

Anywhere non-metropolitan/SEQ in QLD pretty much hates Brisbane based pollies and politics, of any breed. Not dissimilar to WA in that massive wealth and income is generated rurally/regionally but is very disproportionately "given back". Explains in a big way why KAP and ONP are very popular outside of Brisbane/SEQ.

Frecklington has been absent, but then most SEQ based pollies couldn't find anywhere outside of Brisbane with a map and a compass anyway.
I doubt there's anyone "dangerous" to take over from her, and if there is I'd say they've left it too late anyway.

A lot of it may depend on how the ONP and KAP parties recommend their preferences. I really wish people would vote according to their beliefs rather than voting the "card". There's been situations in QLD elections where one side or the other has got in on preferences of people "voting the card" who would, I'd reckon, despise those who they helped get over the line by just either not caring or not understanding.

The popular thing that Puddleduck has done, from QLDers point of view, has stood firm on the border closures. The thought, in many regional areas, is it's protected the regional areas from harsher shutdown measures. Tourism is obviously the main area that's taken the hit but here in Townsville it's almost normal and businesses are mostly hanging in there. One major outbreak will absolutely screw that.

That might just win it for her mob.

 

[Lebbo73]

I would hate to have Deb Frecklington Navigating this pandemic.
She has nfi.

You might be right about this. Unfortunately, Palestine hasn’t had any idea for the last 5 & a half years.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Puddleduck has handled COVID well for the South East though, it’s the “ One size fits all “ approach that’s pissed off the rest of the state.

I reckon North Queensland should just secede and become its own state. Queensland is far too distributed in population to focus on everywhere properly. Not that I think anyone west of Toowoomba would be any more favourable to Palaszczuk and SEQ in general, but unlike NQ they don't have the population to make a go of it by themselves.

I'd wave you off with good wishes and urge you to take Mackay so I don't have to look at George Christensen's face so much.

Frecklington has been absent, but then most SEQ based pollies couldn't find anywhere outside of Brisbane with a map and a compass anyway.

She isn't from SEQ, if that's what was implied.

I doubt there's anyone "dangerous" to take over from her, and if there is I'd say they've left it too late anyway.

Tim Mander looks like a competent leader, and he'll be able to sidestep the problem the LNP have winning seats in Brisbane when they have a leader from the country. I think his plan is to let Frecklington crash and burn at this election so he has full control of the party room in the aftermath.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I reckon North Queensland should just secede and become its own state. Queensland is just far too distributed in population to focus on everywhere properly. Not that I think anyone west of Toowoomba would be any more favourable to Palaszczuk and SEQ in general.

I'd wave you off with good tidings and urge you to take Mackay so I don't have to look at George Christensen's face so much.


She isn't from SEQ, if that's what was implied.


Tim Mander looks like a competent leader, and he'll be able to sidestep the problem the LNP have winning seats in Brisbane when they have a leader from the country. I think his plan is to let Frecklington crash and burn at this election so he has full control of the party room in the aftermath.

Fnq is basically wa with bananas

 

[DaRick]

I reckon North Queensland should just secede and become its own state. Queensland is far too distributed in population to focus on everywhere properly. Not that I think anyone west of Toowoomba would be any more favourable to Palaszczuk and SEQ in general, but unlike NQ they don't have the population to make a go of it by themselves.

I'm speaking as a Brisbane resident (not sure where in QLD you're from), but in general I disapprove of secession. It tends to make the two (or more) resulting states poorer, less powerful and therefore less capable of defending themselves against harmful outside interests, not to mention less competitive with other states generally. Also, while FNQ has the resources to hold their own, I'm not sure if it's particularly capable of competently governing itself (relative to other Australian states). FNQ is probably Australia's equivalent to Alabama or some such, and Alabama isn't exactly a great example of governance.

She isn't from SEQ, if that's what was implied.

From the perspective of someone residing in FNQ, Nanango would be close enough.

Tim Mander looks like a competent leader, and he'll be able to sidestep the problem the LNP have winning seats in Brisbane when they have a leader from the country. I think his plan is to let Frecklington crash and burn at this election so he has full control of the party room in the aftermath.

He'd be more likely than Frecklington, but as I've explained before, he would have to do a lot right and luck would have to be on his side (regarding the ALP screwing up, anger with the ALP in Brisbane etc.).

 

[Johnny Bananas]

(not sure where in QLD you're from)

At present, Brisbane.

but in general I disapprove of secession. It tends to make the two (or more) resulting states poorer, less powerful and therefore less capable of defending themselves against harmful outside interests, not to mention less competitive with other states generally.

If Queensland and North Queensland collectively get more than 12 senators after splitting, they certainly won't be less powerful than before. Ideally you'd see NQ getting the same 12 senators as other states, but even 6 would give them some level of clout.

Also, while FNQ has the resources to hold their own, I'm not sure if it's particularly capable of competently governing itself (relative to other Australian states). FNQ is probably Australia's equivalent to Alabama or some such, and Alabama isn't exactly a great example of governance.

Are they somehow less capable at administration than other Australians? What evidence is there to suggest this?

I've only heard of one North Queensland council getting sacked, which was in the aftermath of Cyclone Larry and it was a very contentious decision. Down south, both Logan and Ipswich had their councils sacked for mass corruption in the past three years, without any natural disaster making governance more difficult. So that's 2-1 to the south in terms of incompetent governance.

From the perspective of someone residing in FNQ, Nanango would be close enough.

This is another reason why NQ deserves to be its own state. If they see people from areas as dissimilar as Nanango and Brisbane as all being southerners, they're clearly different people with different needs living very remotely from the rest.

 

[Borisdog]

I reckon North Queensland should just secede and become its own state. Queensland is far too distributed in population to focus on everywhere properly. Not that I think anyone west of Toowoomba would be any more favourable to Palaszczuk and SEQ in general, but unlike NQ they don't have the population to make a go of it by themselves.

I'd wave you off with good wishes and urge you to take Mackay so I don't have to look at George Christensen's face so much.


She isn't from SEQ, if that's what was implied.


Tim Mander looks like a competent leader, and he'll be able to sidestep the problem the LNP have winning seats in Brisbane when they have a leader from the country. I think his plan is to let Frecklington crash and burn at this election so he has full control of the party room in the aftermath.

Secession is a particularly stupid idea that always gets a run. A fair crack with infrastructure is all that regional areas ask. The last thing Australia needs is 50 states.

She's from SEQ. Look at a map. But DaRick beat me to it there

Losing to win is a pretty dumb strategy really. Why not have a crack - With a good campaign I do reckon the LNP would be in with a chance. Present alternative plans to get the economy fully going again and get as much stuff open and they'd be a lay down misere. What that plan would consist of I don't know but I'm sure they've got clever people around them.

 

[Borisdog]

Fnq is basically wa with bananas

Hey Hey!

WA grows bananas too you know!

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Secession is a particularly stupid idea that always gets a run. A fair crack with infrastructure is all that regional areas ask. The last thing Australia needs is 50 states.

Define "a fair crack at infrastructure". What sort of funding split do you expect?

She's from SEQ. Look at a map. But DaRick beat me to it there

I'd imagine plenty of people from Kingaroy and the surrounding area wouldn't be happy to be classified as SEQ, and would insist they're from the Burnett. But being up north, I can see how a lot of places seem very remote to you.

Losing to win is a pretty dumb strategy really. Why not have a crack - With a good campaign I do reckon the LNP would be in with a chance. Present alternative plans to get the economy fully going again and get as much stuff open and they'd be a lay down misere. What that plan would consist of I don't know but I'm sure they've got clever people around them.

I didn't say the LNP wanted to lose the election, just Mander.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

I reckon North Queensland should just secede and become its own state.

Pass. Australia needs more conservative parliamentarians, drawing millions from Uncle Sam Scott, like a hole in the head. Not to mention the population is piddly, smaller than Wollongong.