Hi passionate Dogs fans,
I hope we’re all doing safe and well. Long time reader…minimal poster. Like most, I was the most frustrated I’ve been after a loss in ages, even though there was still an inevitable sense of dread when leading by 6 goals at quarter time.
Hence, I’ve been reflecting: have my expectations of this season been too high, and does our MC see us as a developing team, or a contending team? Judging by the tone and reactions on this forum, most of us supporters probably see this season as winnable; the competition is incredibly even, we have a superstar midfield and premiership players across every line. Hence, when we lose games like last night and reflect on this season, our first reaction is that we are grossly under-performing to expectations.
However, it’s my contention that the coaching staff still see our team as developing. Quote Bevo at the season launch, along the lines of ‘we thought we were closer than we are’ when reflecting on 2019 and other quotes this season, (paraphrasing) remarking that ‘we’re trying to compete against the contenders’. As supporters with high expectations in an even season we can debate whether this is the right approach. It also prompts the following questions being asked repeatedly in Autopsy threads after each frustrating loss:
Hypothesis 1: I have grossly underestimated the impact key players had in winning the Preliminary Final and Grand Final. While we had a great midfield, our forwards and backs had phenomenal impacts:
In an even season where we’ve been competing for 2-3 quarters against the best teams, it has been incredibly frustrating. But on deeper reflection my hypothesizes go some way to answering why we’re still developing, why we’ve changed our game style, why we keep getting younger and why Timmy has been playing, despite being gassed the last few weeks.
While most of us doggie fans are usually pessimists (hands up if you knew at quarter time last night's game wasn’t over?), 2016 has made us deceptively optimistic: if young, fringe players can play in a premiership then, why can’t our 2020 fringe players enjoy the same fate now? If we could win it from 7th then, it is so romantic to dream that we could do it again with 4 solid weeks.
But, we don’t have all the pieces yet and despite having some superstars, our depth isn’t all that great. We may have some future stars, but this younger list needs to develop quickly so we don’t throw away Bont, Jacko and Dunks’ prime years. So rather than chucking your phone into the couch after every Geelong Q4 goal (me last night), try to enjoy the moments of brilliance and accept that our primary 2020 goal is to fast-track our youngsters’ development so our established guns can enjoy a moment on the dais again.
I hope we’re all doing safe and well. Long time reader…minimal poster. Like most, I was the most frustrated I’ve been after a loss in ages, even though there was still an inevitable sense of dread when leading by 6 goals at quarter time.
Hence, I’ve been reflecting: have my expectations of this season been too high, and does our MC see us as a developing team, or a contending team? Judging by the tone and reactions on this forum, most of us supporters probably see this season as winnable; the competition is incredibly even, we have a superstar midfield and premiership players across every line. Hence, when we lose games like last night and reflect on this season, our first reaction is that we are grossly under-performing to expectations.
However, it’s my contention that the coaching staff still see our team as developing. Quote Bevo at the season launch, along the lines of ‘we thought we were closer than we are’ when reflecting on 2019 and other quotes this season, (paraphrasing) remarking that ‘we’re trying to compete against the contenders’. As supporters with high expectations in an even season we can debate whether this is the right approach. It also prompts the following questions being asked repeatedly in Autopsy threads after each frustrating loss:
- Why are we still developing when we won a flag with a young list only 4 years ago?
- Why have changed our game style so dramatically since 216?
- Are we throwing away the golden years of our midfield stars?
- How do we keep getting younger; why do we keep getting younger?!?
- Why do we persist with an incredibly left-field ruck strategy which undermines our midfield advantage?!?!?
Hypothesis 1: I have grossly underestimated the impact key players had in winning the Preliminary Final and Grand Final. While we had a great midfield, our forwards and backs had phenomenal impacts:
- Firstly: Offensively, we kicked 26 goals over both wonderfully magical games. 5 players contributed 2+ goals over both games: Dicko with 7, 5 to Clay, 3 each to Tom Boyd, Picko, Zaine and 1 each to Bont, Jacko, Toby, Caleb and ‘the Package.’ Of those 26 goals, only 3 goals came from players who are still on our list, in their prime and still playing centre/forward (Bont, Jacko, Toby); 4 goals came from Zaine and Caleb who now play in our back half; while a massive 12 goals came from players who we all thought would be coming in to their prime, or still adding significant value (Clay, Tom Boyd, Picko, Stringer). Lastly, Dicko is past his prime as we sadly learnt last night.
- Key insight: while we were lauded for our stoppage supremacy, we all expected to have sustained/improved output from 3 of our 5 multiple goal-scorers + Jake Stringer well in to 2020
- Defensively, I don’t think our structure hasn’t changed significantly; today’s back 7 of Keath, Cordy, Crozier, Wood, Williams, Daniel and JJ seems comparable to a 2016 back 7 of Hamling, Roberts, Morris, Wood, Biggs, Matty Boyd and JJ. However, this is likely under selling 2016’s team- Morris and Moyd provided harden bodies and wise heads, Woody was in near career best form and Hamling has always been criminally under-rated. Further, with Biggs’ and Roberts’ age profile they should be career form now but only performed out of their skins for 2 weeks.
- Key insight: we also won the premiership due to the contribution of influential defenders who we haven’t successfully replace
- Firstly: tick to Keath and Crozier- both have made our team better.
- Secondly; question marks/ borderline pass against: Bruce (enough said about him in other threads), Lloyd- albeit for 1 year, Duryea- albeit for 1 year
- Thirdly: Crosses against Cloke, Trengove, Schache, Gowers
- Too early to tell (potentially too kind…): Hayes, Gardner, Cavarra, Sweet
- Key insight: we have attempted to fill the gap with mature players, which has been largely unsuccessful
- Ruck: since 3rd man up was abolished the ruck position has become critically important. Hence, while most of us cringe seeing Timmy play exhausted each week, the MC recognize the importance of having a dominant ruck and are trying to fast track his development by maximizing his minutes
- Pressure smalls: I’d argue that both Richards and Cody have played more games deserving on their output, but players who can offer speed and pressure in front half are critical in the modern game
- Key Position players. Brucey is clearly out of form and we all continue to question Gardy’s selection, but we clearly see 2 KPF who can at least bring the ball to ground as our preferred structure. Further, our KPD depth is minimal but we must prefer Gardy’s contest work to Lewy Young and to his credit, Gardy has attacked the contest with more vigour although still has a way to go
- Key insight: due to broadly unsuccessful mature-aged recruits, we are replacing 2016’s important players with younger recruits and appear to be ‘favouring’ players in selection because we are favouring development. Further, our depth isn't talented enough to place adequate selection competition on these 'favoured' players
- Firstly, forwards: in those 2x 2016 finals we scored most of our goals forward-half pressure players, none of whom we’ve successfully replaced. In the Grand Final we only had 6x marks inside 50 (only 3 resulted in goals!); we scored 5 goals from snaps and an additional 3 from intense forward-half pressure (Zaine’s tackle, Morris’ run down on Buddy, ‘Shane Biggs never forget’). Hence, our ‘system’ was to get it inside 50 no matter how, deploy big guys who could at least bring the ball to ground (Zaine and Tom) and trap it until Tory, Picko or Clay scored. Wally aside, who do we have at the moment who can provide the pressure these 3 brought? Conversely, our current main forwards (Wally, Brucey and Astro) generate most of their goals from marks, while we need to develop or bring in players who can provide intense forward pressure. Hence, we have changed our system to be more deliberate with how we bring the ball inside 50 and are persisting with younger players in the pressure roles despite their limited current impact.
- Secondly, the ruck position. I’ve under-estimated how reliant we were on 3rd man up; Bont was the highest rate ‘ruck’ with 9 hit outs on Grand Final day and his critical 3rd man up in the last quarter led to Jake’s goal. Consequently, we are now trying to organically develop a dominant ruck and have made a debatable decision to fast-track his development even if it costs us midfield dominance this year. Clearly Trengove isn’t in our plans and because the MC see us as a developing team, they have decided there is minimal justification to play him
- Lastly, our defensive structure, largely based around interceptors, is the most consistent since 2016, and has the potential to be better than 2016 when all players are in their prime. But they’re not all there yet.
- Key insight: we have changed our offensive and stoppage systems as our personnel and ruck rules have changed significantly. Ironically this is consistent with Bevo’s initial 2014 press conference where we explained that players’ strengths will determine the system. Again ironically, we celebrated this at the time and were critical of Macca for imposing a system that didn’t seem well suited to our playing list at the time!
In an even season where we’ve been competing for 2-3 quarters against the best teams, it has been incredibly frustrating. But on deeper reflection my hypothesizes go some way to answering why we’re still developing, why we’ve changed our game style, why we keep getting younger and why Timmy has been playing, despite being gassed the last few weeks.
While most of us doggie fans are usually pessimists (hands up if you knew at quarter time last night's game wasn’t over?), 2016 has made us deceptively optimistic: if young, fringe players can play in a premiership then, why can’t our 2020 fringe players enjoy the same fate now? If we could win it from 7th then, it is so romantic to dream that we could do it again with 4 solid weeks.
But, we don’t have all the pieces yet and despite having some superstars, our depth isn’t all that great. We may have some future stars, but this younger list needs to develop quickly so we don’t throw away Bont, Jacko and Dunks’ prime years. So rather than chucking your phone into the couch after every Geelong Q4 goal (me last night), try to enjoy the moments of brilliance and accept that our primary 2020 goal is to fast-track our youngsters’ development so our established guns can enjoy a moment on the dais again.
