2020 Trade & List Management discussion

[hey shorty]

4 first round picks? lmao

Use 2 absolute max, wouldn't even mind just using pick 1. Then parlay everything into next years draft. Port have shown how much it costs to move down the order in a good draft, we need all the picks we can get.

How we handle next years draft could well be the difference between how long we are stuck on the bottom of the ladder.

Disagree.

We have to get as much young talent into this club as possible, and we have a great hand this year plus access to good talent of our own.

If we lose 1 Crouch it probably won't take much for the other 1 to leave next year and you get yourself another 1st rounder to go with what is highly likely to be a top 2 pick.

 

[Mego Red]

4 first round picks? lmao

Use 2 absolute max, wouldn't even mind just using pick 1. Then parlay everything into next years draft. Port have shown how much it costs to move down the order in a good draft, we need all the picks we can get.

How we handle next years draft could well be the difference between how long we are stuck on the bottom of the ladder.

So, just keep kicking things on for another year?

Terrible idea. You'll have to MASSIVELY overpay to get into next year's draft, where we'd already will have good picks and have a while range of other free agents coming up for possible compo, including Matt Crouch.

We need to aggressively rebuild EVERY draft, not just keep delaying things.

If clubs are hesitant to take too many draft picks this year because of reducing list numbers, we need to ABSOLUTELY jump on that and take advantage of it, because we'll have no problem reducing our list.

We should trade for young players plus trade both Laird and our seconds. We absolutely should end up with four picks before an Edwards bid.

 

[Mego Red]

I agree that if next year's drafting is better, trading out of this for next, is a good idea, given we're probably fairly set with our picks with f/s and NGA.

Can't wait for the melts though. So many already p***ed that we keep kicking the can down the road and not using the picks we have.

Our NGAs are only okay. They're mid draft players.

We need MULTIPLE top level players. Trading into next year's draft and wasting another year would be a disaster.

 

[Mego Red]

We should aim for four top 20 picks and our 3 NGAs plus Hately and Sparrow (or similar) in the PSD.

We should trade Laird, lose Brad Crouch for first round compo and Atkins for end of second round compo, and we should trade our second round picks to either get Hately, to move up or to move back for picks. Those second rounds will be where an Edwards and MAYBE Newchurch bid would come.

We should delist, retire or trade B Crouch, Laird, Atkins, Tex Walker, Mackay, Gibbs, Hartigan, Himmelburg, Knight, plus maybe Crocker. It's not hard to find 9 or more list changes.

 

[GrommoT]

...
If we have picks 2 and 3 (assuming bulldogs have pick 1), we use those two as well as Edwards, Newchurch and Borlase. We then have another 2 mid to late first rounders, maybe 3 second rounders, how do we move them into next years draft?
...

It might not work like that - it will very much depend on where our NGA/FS players get bid on (if they are bidded on).

If any of them get bid on in r1 of the draft and we have to carry a points deficit into next year (because we've spent our picks on other r1 players this year), the deficit will affect our r1 pick next year - if we get pick 1 in 2021, it would get demoted into a worse pick.

We really don't want our NGA/FSs bid on in r1 - we'd be forced to choose between (a) getting other players before them and downgrading our r1 pick next year, or (b) getting just our NGA/FSs and keeping our 2021 r1 pick intact.

 

[skittlebrew]

So, just keep kicking things on for another year?

Terrible idea. You'll have to MASSIVELY overpay to get into next year's draft, where we'd already will have good picks and have a while range of other free agents coming up for possible compo, including Matt Crouch.

We need to aggressively rebuild EVERY draft, not just keep delaying things.

If clubs are hesitant to take too many draft picks this year because of reducing list numbers, we need to ABSOLUTELY jump on that and take advantage of it, because we'll have no problem reducing our list.

We should trade for young players plus trade both Laird and our seconds. We absolutely should end up with four picks before an Edwards bid.

I'm only suggesting kicking things over for one more year then smash the draft. We will still get Thilthorpe and our academy guys this year.

And we have youth still yet to be blooded. Schoenberg, Worrell, O'Connor, Scholl, Butts etc

We're doing ok for young talls. Fog, McAsey, Butts and Thilthorpe.

Yes we will have to overpay, you have to give up something of value to get something of value. We don't overpay we get Jones and McHenry, we pony up we get Rozee, Butters and Dursma. I know who I'd rather base my rebuild on...

 

[Golumless]

4 first round picks? lmao

Use 2 absolute max, wouldn't even mind just using pick 1. Then parlay everything into next years draft. Port have shown how much it costs to move down the order in a good draft, we need all the picks we can get.

How we handle next years draft could well be the difference between how long we are stuck on the bottom of the ladder.

I'd be inclined to take in more talent now, especially with us having holes everywhere. Though, if we were to trade anyone, I'd be aiming for 2021 picks.

We'll probably start at a pick 1-3 next season. Can work everything out from there.

 

[skittlebrew]

Our NGAs are only okay. They're mid draft players.

We need MULTIPLE top level players. Trading into next year's draft and wasting another year would be a disaster.

This year could be a dud draft year, going all in this year could be a disaster.

Going all-in on a strong draft year is the way to go. Imagine getting multiple top 10 picks in the 2018 draft, that's how you rebuild.

 

[Golumless]

This year could be a dud draft year, going all in this year could be a disaster.

Going all-in on a strong draft year is the way to go. Imagine getting multiple top 10 picks in the 2018 draft, that's how you rebuild.

All years could be a dud draft year.

Drafting will not rebuild a team, no matter how strong your hand is in a good/meh draft. The development afterwards is what we have to nail, regardless. Teams who think that all their problems would be solved by drafting well are fools and deserve to circle the drain for the next decade.

The only real argument for delaying a year would be to sort out our development coaches/rebuild that side.

 

[Greenac]

If we can cut the Crouch bros, Laird and Lynch that's a fair bit of salary cap space to throw around for people to reject Kanagaroos-style. The thing that makes this whole entire conversation so depressing is that our club's reputation is so tarnished that no established star will actually want a bar of our culture and setup.

Even if we got rid of the campaigners who caused this it just puts us at Step One of our rejuvenation...not traditionally the step decent players will join, they will usually wait until we are heading around the corner already or even just after we have turned it.

So our only half-likely road out of this entire flipping mess is to absolutely nail the draft which is also the thing we have failed to do in the last 5 years.

The only other option would be to get a superstar coach like Clarko who would attract talent off his own bat. So yeah, draft it is.

So, it's pretty ****ed.

 

[SaltPeter]

All years could be a dud draft year.

Drafting will not rebuild a team, no matter how strong your hand is in a good/meh draft. The development afterwards is what we have to nail, regardless. Teams who think that all their problems would be solved by drafting well are fools and deserve to circle the drain for the next decade.

The only real argument for delaying a year would be to sort out our development coaches/rebuild that side.

Considering they’ve gone public with the rebuild surely they’re trying to sort that out now

 

[Scorpus]

We don't need to do anything to get high draft picks in 2021.

We are near certain to finish in the bottom section of the ladder, and then on top of that, we can let some of our numerous free agents leave. Matt Crouch, Brodie Smith and Rory Laird are all FAs next year

 

[Thetrader15]

Trading out senior players for picks in this year's draft and moving them on.

We have 4, possibly 5 picks inside 30 this year + NGA and FS selections. Now a couple of those will take the picks we have this year, and you don't want to go into debt next year, so I think we use those and call it a day.

But which club will give up a 1st next year for 2nd rd pick this year?

 

[Thetrader15]

We don't need to do anything to get high draft picks in 2021.

We are near certain to finish in the bottom section of the ladder, and then on top of that, we can let some of our numerous free agents leave. Matt Crouch, Brodie Smith and Rory Laird are all FAs next year

I think we should hold our FAs for the compo picks next year...at which point the VFL will scrap the compo picks

 

[Crow till I die]

We should aim for four top 20 picks and our 3 NGAs plus Hately and Sparrow (or similar) in the PSD.

We should trade Laird, lose Brad Crouch for first round compo and Atkins for end of second round compo, and we should trade our second round picks to either get Hately, to move up or to move back for picks. Those second rounds will be where an Edwards and MAYBE Newchurch bid would come.

We should delist, retire or trade B Crouch, Laird, Atkins, Tex Walker, Mackay, Gibbs, Hartigan, Himmelburg, Knight, plus maybe Crocker. It's not hard to find 9 or more list changes.

Maybe a bit different to that would be trading our 2 x 20's picks to a club wanting to downgrade due to a high academy bid for their 1st and IF b crouch heads as a band 1 rfa that gives us 4 1sts this year + we just need to make sure we have points for nga F/S bids. Then next year might be the year to trade another player out for a 1st if we can ie laird or m crouch as we are likely to have a top3 pick next year from finish position

 

[Scorpus]

I think we should hold our FAs for the compo picks next year...at which point the VFL will scrap the compo picks

Scrapping of picks aside, this is why I'd be hesitant to trade Matt Crouch unless he gets a top 5 pick. If we let him walk next year, we could very well get that.

Brodie Smith being in a higher age bracket, can't see him netting a first rounder but could get an end of first. Same with Laird, he's in the younger age bracket but can't see him getting a large enough contract

 

[CrowEater888]

Would be a good trade... except Laird wants to go to Melbourne.

Perhaps a three way trade?

We send Laird to Melbourne
GWS send Hately to Adelaide
Melbourne send (a late first rounder perhaps) to GWS.
Maybe some 2nd & 3rd round pick swapping between the three of us for points value.

 

[skittlebrew]

All years could be a dud draft year.

Drafting will not rebuild a team, no matter how strong your hand is in a good/meh draft. The development afterwards is what we have to nail, regardless. Teams who think that all their problems would be solved by drafting well are fools and deserve to circle the drain for the next decade.

The only real argument for delaying a year would be to sort out our development coaches/rebuild that side.

Not following you. Yes development is a factor but nailing picks is also very important. Show me all these teams who have won a flag and not drafted some guns. You could have the best development team in the country but you still need underlying talent in the players, otherwise Hawthorn would just win every year.

 

[Golumless]

Not following you. Yes development is a factor but nailing picks is also very important. Show me all these teams who have won a flag and not drafted some guns. You could have the best development team in the country but you still need underlying talent in the players, otherwise Hawthorn would just win every year.

You're taking a reductionist argument to get to your point.

Take the two paths Gold Coast and GWS took. GWS invested heavily in the development side of things and targetted people who would support that (and were probably saved from themselves with Franklin going to Sydney). GC had an attitude of all it matters is drafting and landed the big fish in Ablett. One has been a grand finalist (and probably should have a flag by now) and the other, despite all their riches (and there is no way even remotely possible GC stuffed up even half those picks talent-wise) circled the drain and failed a build. Melbourne had top picks out of their ears to fail a rebuild. Carlton and Brisbane too. It's not drafting why they failed because frankly, anyone in the conversation of a top 5 pick oodles with enough talent to be a gun.

How you develop and mould a raw, but talented kid is the factor that decides a rebuild. Not drafting. Even the most can't miss prospect will fail if not properly supported.

The value of a good drafter is being able to nail later picks, where it becomes more subjective. It's great to have but even then, you need a shit-tonne of support around them to be able to do it. I'd wager Hawthorn will rebound and have a premiership quicker than any team who puts all their eggs into just drafting talent.

 

[skittlebrew]

You're taking a reductionist argument to get to your point.

Take the two paths Gold Coast and GWS took. GWS invested heavily in the development side of things and targetted people who would support that (and were probably saved from themselves with Franklin going to Sydney). GC had an attitude of all it matters is drafting and landed the big fish in Ablett. One has been a grand finalist (and probably should have a flag by now) and the other, despite all their riches (and there is no way even remotely possible GC stuffed up even half those picks talent-wise) circled the drain and failed a build. Melbourne had top picks out of their ears to fail a rebuild. Carlton and Brisbane too. It's not drafting why they failed because frankly, anyone in the conversation of a top 5 pick oodles with enough talent to be a gun.

How you develop and mould a raw, but talented kid is the factor that decides a rebuild. Not drafting. Even the most can't miss prospect will fail if not properly supported.

The value of a good drafter is being able to nail later picks, where it becomes more subjective. It's great to have but even then, you need a sh*t-tonne of support around them to be able to do it. I'd wager Hawthorn will rebound and have a premiership quicker than any team who puts all their eggs into just drafting talent.

No where did I say ignore development. I merely stated I would prefer to skew our draft currency this year into nexts as much as possible.

I don't doubt GWS' development is far better but you could also make a solid argument re GWS v GC that the draft makes a big difference. GWS first year/s far superior.

 

[Mego Red]

I'm only suggesting kicking things over for one more year then smash the draft. We will still get Thilthorpe and our academy guys this year.

And we have youth still yet to be blooded. Schoenberg, Worrell, O'Connor, Scholl, Butts etc

We're doing ok for young talls. Fog, McAsey, Butts and Thilthorpe.

Yes we will have to overpay, you have to give up something of value to get something of value. We don't overpay we get Jones and McHenry, we pony up we get Rozee, Butters and Dursma. I know who I'd rather base my rebuild on...

Yeah, except there's good first round talent IN THIS DRAFT which we could get, PLUS we return with another 3 top 20 picks next year.

Thilthorpe is a good get, but none of the NGA guys are that fantastic. All are 2nd or 3rd round picks.

I'm happy with moving picks around to trade strongly up in the same draft, and I'm probably fine with a small overspend to get something next year. Normally, you have to give away extra for NEXT year to get something now, so we could do the reverse to not get too many in this year, IF we're worried about too many teenagers arriving in one year and it's not an enormous overs. If it is, let's get them in for this year.

 

[Mego Red]

This year could be a dud draft year, going all in this year could be a disaster.

Going all-in on a strong draft year is the way to go. Imagine getting multiple top 10 picks in the 2018 draft, that's how you rebuild.

We're not talking about trading future picks for more picks this year. We're just talking about what will naturally happen.

This year will be reasonably strong, and picking from the top end minimises the risk as compared to late draft guesses. If next year is a 20% better draft but it costs us 30% of a picks value to change years, we're worse off.

And rebuilds are done over multiple years. Port gave away a tonne to move up and good on them - let's see how things look when five or six of their best 10 players all retire in the next couple of years.

 

[Cap]

Given we hold two picks in the early 20s, would it be likely that we pursue a pick swap with someone's future 1st?

I'd assume it would only work in one of those scenarios where a player drops further than expected, but getting 2 first rounders 2 years in a row better than 2nd rounders this year? ( I'm assuming we'll have to swap 2nds next year or something to make it work.

 

[Mego Red]

If we can cut the Crouch bros, Laird and Lynch that's a fair bit of salary cap space to throw around for people to reject Kanagaroos-style. The thing that makes this whole entire conversation so depressing is that our club's reputation is so tarnished that no established star will actually want a bar of our culture and setup.

Even if we got rid of the campaigners who caused this it just puts us at Step One of our rejuvenation...not traditionally the step decent players will join, they will usually wait until we are heading around the corner already or even just after we have turned it.

So our only half-likely road out of this entire f*n mess is to absolutely nail the draft which is also the thing we have failed to do in the last 5 years.

The only other option would be to get a superstar coach like Clarko who would attract talent off his own bat. So yeah, draft it is.

So, it's pretty f’ed.

Ah, you're being defeatist.

This year, we focus on moving on senior talent and getting draft picks. Next year, we do the same.

By then, we will have cleared both Crouches, Gibbs, Walker, Laird, Atkins, Mackay, Lynch, Seedsman, Smith - even if we keep one or two, it's unlikely they'll still be on massive coin.

Then we start playing the free agency market. We would have brought more than a dozen players in, plus the youth from the last few years (Doedee, Milera, Hamill, McHenry, Chayce Jones, McAsey, Schoenfeld, Worrell), and we'll have tonnes of available cash.

Then we'll start to see some true improvement.

 

[Mego Red]

Maybe a bit different to that would be trading our 2 x 20's picks to a club wanting to downgrade due to a high academy bid for their 1st and IF b crouch heads as a band 1 rfa that gives us 4 1sts this year + we just need to make sure we have points for nga F/S bids. Then next year might be the year to trade another player out for a 1st if we can ie laird or m crouch as we are likely to have a top3 pick next year from finish position

I think we're saying the same thing.

Trade some seconds for a first from a club who needs to trade down for points, such as WB or Collingwood. Have that, plus our pick and Crouch compo, and the GWS first and what we get for Laird.