List Mgmt. 2020 Trade Thread - Part I

[Premium]

A lot of teams are looking for key forwards and the Dogs will be selecting Jamarra Ugle-Hagan
Brown - Nth Melb
Cameron - GWS

But one guy I would be chasing is

Logan McDonald
196cm/85kg
Perth/Western Australia
Tall forward
Recruiters were able to see McDonald in action last year, with the key forward prospect featuring in three of Western Australia's under-18 championships matches. McDonald's strength lies in his marking ability and he is comfortable as a key target in attack. Has been in strong form in WAFL practice matches leading into the season restart.

He is already performing in the WAFL - if he gets to us I would take him.

 

[StCicatriz]

A lot of teams are looking for key forwards and the Dogs will be selecting Jamarra Ugle-Hagan
Brown - Nth Melb
Cameron - GWS

But one guy I would be chasing is

Logan McDonald
196cm/85kg
Perth/Western Australia
Tall forward
Recruiters were able to see McDonald in action last year, with the key forward prospect featuring in three of Western Australia's under-18 championships matches. McDonald's strength lies in his marking ability and he is comfortable as a key target in attack. Has been in strong form in WAFL practice matches leading into the season restart.

He is already performing in the WAFL - if he gets to us I would take him.

Same here but think he goes top 5

 

[Ekomaira]

Same here but think he goes top 5

bit off topic but you were spot on with Liam Ryan. he's a freakshow

 

[StCicatriz]

bit off topic but you were spot on with Liam Ryan. he's a freakshow

Absolute star

 

[Premium]

Absolute star

It's a joke Ryan was starring in the WAFL with Tim Kelly and they go 26 and 24 in the draft the year we picked up Hunter Clark #7 , Coffield #8 , Clavarino #35 and Paton #46 , so not to bad / but Ryan and Kelly where proven and killing it in the WAFL.

 

[gringo2011]

Same here but think he goes top 5

Yeah him and Grainger-Barrass look like the best of the WA kids at the moment. There is a kid from SA called Caleb Poulter that is starting to bolt up the order Left footed goal scoring mid. Looks a bit like poor mans Bont.

 

[L_W_P]

Making finals means our pick will be at 11+

Going on worst case scenario, if we do land pick 11 then we'll cop this:
.Geelong acquired GC 2020 priority pick (11)
(Saints pick moves to 12)

.Bid placed on JUH in the top 5
(Saints pick moves to 13)

.Bid placed on Sydney NGA Brydon Campbell in top 10
(Saints pick moves to 14)

.Possible bid on Freo NGA player, consciousness seems to be around 10-15.
(Saints pick moves to 15)

My personal opinion based on SFA, is that aside from the NGA players, quality seems to markedly drop after pick 10.

If we can split our pick for the likes of Caldwell and change then it's a no brainer imo..

So who do you rate as worth pick 12 as it stands? I have no idea but let's say it's Finley Macrae.

If Macrae is worth pick 12, and our pick is pushed back to 15-16 because of bids, and Macrae is still there, then it's no different.

Regardless of what bids come sooner, it doesn't change which player is available at our pick.

Let's say we had pick 4 and we want Tanner Bruhn. The early draft looks like this -

Pick 1 - Adelaide
Pick 2 - Adelaide Compo
Pick 3 - North
Pick 4 - St Kilda

Draft night happens like this -

Pick 1 - Bulldogs - Dogs match for JUH
Pick 2 - Adelaide - Thilthorpe
Pick 3 - Adelaide Compo - Hollands
Pick 4 - Sydney - Match bid for Campbell
Pick 5 - Gold Coast - Match bid for Davies
Pick 6 - Port Adelaide - Match bid for Lachie Jones
Pick 7 - Collingwood - match bid for Reef McInnes
Pick 8 - North Melbourne - McDonald
Pick 9 - St Kilda - Bruhn

So we started with 4, ended with 9, still got the same player because the bids have ZERO impact on the available players at our selection.

I could see us maybe using the pick to grab a player and a future pick but I think I would prefer to hold it, go to the draft with a couple of key options and then if they are taken we can look to move the pick on the night.

As we have seen over the last couple of years; Teams will pay a premium to get back into the draft for a player they see sliding.

 

[ScrappyDo]

So who do you rate as worth pick 12 as it stands? I have no idea but let's say it's Finley Macrae.

If Macrae is worth pick 12, and our pick is pushed back to 15-16 because of bids, and Macrae is still there, then it's no different.

Regardless of what bids come sooner, it doesn't change which player is available at our pick.

Let's say we had pick 4 and we want Tanner Bruhn. The early draft looks like this -

Pick 1 - Adelaide
Pick 2 - Adelaide Compo
Pick 3 - North
Pick 4 - St Kilda

Draft night happens like this -

Pick 1 - Bulldogs - Dogs match for JUH
Pick 2 - Adelaide - Thilthorpe
Pick 3 - Adelaide Compo - Hollands
Pick 4 - Sydney - Match bid for Campbell
Pick 5 - Gold Coast - Match bid for Davies
Pick 6 - Port Adelaide - Match bid for Lachie Jones
Pick 7 - Collingwood - match bid for Reef McInnes
Pick 8 - North Melbourne - McDonald
Pick 9 - St Kilda - Bruhn

So we started with 4, ended with 9, still got the same player because the bids have ZERO impact on the available players at our selection.

I could see us maybe using the pick to grab a player and a future pick but I think I would prefer to hold it, go to the draft with a couple of key options and then if they are taken we can look to move the pick on the night.

As we have seen over the last couple of years; Teams will pay a premium to get back into the draft for a player they see sliding.

I've heard this line of logic before, and I'll admit that my mathematical talents are poor at best. But this just does not compute for me.

Lets say that there are 10 elite players, 3 of them tied to clubs, and we have pick 10.

Our pick 10 is pushed to 13.

Number of elite players = 10
Saints final selection = 13

So had there been zero players tied to a club, StKilda would have access to the last elite player.
But because we are pushed down the order, we miss out.

If we are targeting any player, and he remains on the board, then it has no effect on us.
But that can be said about pick 1 or pick 1000.
It's a fundamental truth, not an equation.

If we are looking at best available, then being pushed towards the shallow end of the talent pool will reduce our benefit.

In the case of the draft, it's normal that there's a strong concensus over picks 1-2-3
and the probability distribution, being the concensus of order and distribution of talent grows, or becomes more inaccurate with each pick.

In my case above, the pool of players we'd be looking at would be the 7-15 group.
But because we get pushed out to 13, we now sit in the 10-20 pool.

If we over lay those two groups, we see that there are 3 less of the high end talent, and 5 more of the low end.
The probability that the 3 high end talented players get taken picks 10-11-12, is much greater than that of the ones from the low end of the scale, and our chances of us missing on the player we wanted at pick 10 is likely %50 or greater.

Of course we may get lucky. But since the high end pool is finite, and trends towards speculative, our chances diminish with each rung we drop.

I think that's right, but there's a %97 chance I'm wrong. %98 if the breeze is coming from the south west...

 

[The_Steadier]

Lets say that there are 10 elite players, 3 of them tied to clubs, and we have pick 10.

Our pick 10 is pushed to 13.

Number of elite players = 10
Saints final selection = 13

So had there been zero players tied to a club

You want the impossible- you want access to 'elite' players we simply don't have access to.
Sounds like you are in denial about the academy system existing.

Once you accept the reality of the situation- that the system has locked away talent we can't access, you will see that being bumped down the order by academy selections doesn't mean anything in of itself.

Your beef is with the existence of the academy system itself- not with its effect in knocking regular draft picks down the order.

 

[The_Steadier]

It's a joke Ryan was starring in the WAFL with Tim Kelly and they go 26 and 24 in the draft the year we picked up Hunter Clark #7 , Coffield #8 , Clavarino #35 and Paton #46 , so not to bad / but Ryan and Kelly where proven and killing it in the WAFL.

Kelly was different- he went much later than he would have because he told everyone he would be returning to perf after 2 years.

Cats took the punt on trying to change his mind, nobody was game enough to try it with a pick earlier than in the 20's.

 

[crinkoes]

Kelly was different- he went much later than he would have because he told everyone he would be returning to perf after 2 years.

Cats took the punt on trying to change his mind, nobody was game enough to try it with a pick earlier than in the 20's.

Couldn’t have worked out much better for the Cats. They got 2 elite years out of pick 24. Then through trading him they got themselves back a pick 24, with pick 14, a future 1st rounder (pick 11-18 depending on their finals performance) and an extra pick 33.
Even discounting Kelly’s 2 years as a Cat, they effectively swapped pick 24 and a future third for picks 14, 11-18, 24 and 33.
That’s good business.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

I've heard this line of logic before, and I'll admit that my mathematical talents are poor at best. But this just does not compute for me.

Lets say that there are 10 elite players, 3 of them tied to clubs, and we have pick 10.

Our pick 10 is pushed to 13.

Number of elite players = 10
Saints final selection = 13

So had there been zero players tied to a club, StKilda would have access to the last elite player.
But because we are pushed down the order, we miss out.

If we are targeting any player, and he remains on the board, then it has no effect on us.
But that can be said about pick 1 or pick 1000.
It's a fundamental truth, not an equation.

If we are looking at best available, then being pushed towards the shallow end of the talent pool will reduce our benefit.

In the case of the draft, it's normal that there's a strong concensus over picks 1-2-3
and the probability distribution, being the concensus of order and distribution of talent grows, or becomes more inaccurate with each pick.

In my case above, the pool of players we'd be looking at would be the 7-15 group.
But because we get pushed out to 13, we now sit in the 10-20 pool.

If we over lay those two groups, we see that there are 3 less of the high end talent, and 5 more of the low end.
The probability that the 3 high end talented players get taken picks 10-11-12, is much greater than that of the ones from the low end of the scale, and our chances of us missing on the player we wanted at pick 10 is likely %50 or greater.

Of course we may get lucky. But since the high end pool is finite, and trends towards speculative, our chances diminish with each rung we drop.

I think that's right, but there's a %97 chance I'm wrong. %98 if the breeze is coming from the south west...

I'd usually agree with much of this but the outlier of course is the absence of exposed form thanks to the clusterfk that is 2020.

Of those '10 elites' maybe half of them are rated that highly based on form in their under age year. We all know how much that can change during their top age year. It may actually backfire on some of these clubs that have academy selections as they're locking themselves in to taking kids who haven't had the chance to play champs this season. They may have played a season of underage footy outside of Victoria but not being able to compete against the best kids in the country leaves them all with a question mark.

It's really going to be a lucky dip this draft with recruiters really earning their coin. There will be some kids taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds especially that people will look back on and wonder how they hell they were taken that late.

It's going to be fascinating.

 

[marcus1232]

I'd usually agree with much of this but the outlier of course is the absence of exposed form thanks to the clusterfk that is 2020.

Of those '10 elites' maybe half of them are rated that highly based on form in their under age year. We all know how much that can change during their top age year. It may actually backfire on some of these clubs that have academy selections as they're locking themselves in to taking kids who haven't had the chance to play champs this season. They may have played a season of underage footy outside of Victoria but not being able to compete against the best kids in the country leaves them all with a question mark.

It's really going to be a lucky dip this draft with recruiters really earning their coin. There will be some kids taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds especially that people will look back on and wonder how they hell they were taken that late.

It's going to be fascinating.

Also not taking into account if bulldogs are below us on the ladder and are forced to use there pick we don't move position at all in the draft.
This year is a crap shoot there will be so many hidden gems because there is no exposed form to go off for late bloomers

 

[The Boar]

I hope we're throwing some dollars at Saad if he's available. Releases Clark into the midfield and will generate a heap of HB line rebound metres (something we aren't great at).

Otherwise, try and get Hind into HBF with a license to run and carry.

On Pixel 4a using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Kelly was different- he went much later than he would have because he told everyone he would be returning to perf after 2 years.

Cats took the punt on trying to change his mind, nobody was game enough to try it with a pick earlier than in the 20's.

It paid off for the Cats without changing his mind.
They got some good footy out of him, and turned their 2017 pick 24 into a 2019 pick 16, a 2020 pick 11, and a 2020 pick 19 or so.
West Coast coughed up similar value to what we coughed up for Hill, only in their case it was worth it.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Also not taking into account if bulldogs are below us on the ladder and are forced to use there pick we don't move position at all in the draft.
This year is a crap shoot there will be so many hidden gems because there is no exposed form to go off for late bloomers

Its not that bad for us.
We should still be able to be fairly confident with our first pick, and i don't mind gambling on a kid with our later picks as much as i would if we had a second round pick.

 

[ScrappyDo]

I'd usually agree with much of this but the outlier of course is the absence of exposed form thanks to the clusterfk that is 2020.

Of those '10 elites' maybe half of them are rated that highly based on form in their under age year. We all know how much that can change during their top age year. It may actually backfire on some of these clubs that have academy selections as they're locking themselves in to taking kids who haven't had the chance to play champs this season. They may have played a season of underage footy outside of Victoria but not being able to compete against the best kids in the country leaves them all with a question mark.

It's really going to be a lucky dip this draft with recruiters really earning their coin. There will be some kids taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds especially that people will look back on and wonder how they hell they were taken that late.

It's going to be fascinating.

That not quite true W2L.
I was generalizing, but you're only looking at one side of the coin.
The increased odds of snagging talent with a later pick is probably offset by the increased odds of picking a dud.

There seems to be a reasonably firm talent line this year going by the draft gurus, bookmarked by Archie Perkins at 11-13 .
Once you pass 13 odd, you drop into the next pool. That's my read anyway.

Best to forget about our first pick this year and just put it to best use elsewhere. I'b be happy to see a pick 25-30, and our last pick, currently 73 will come in a long long way and probably land in the 50's come draft time. Take one rookie and job done.

I'm far more bullish for a bigger draft intake next year, and I'd like to see the club try and stocks in the first two rounds of 2021. Though I don't know how we'll do that if we want to be aggressive this trade period..

 

[WhiskySaint]

Draft wise, the way I see it, if there is ever a year to have a bunch of second and third rounders then this is the year.
There will be some gems that would have shown their wares if they had games to play that will slip through the first round.
Then with academy picks, later picks will move up the order.
Then, if lists are shortened and the AFL lets clubs take less then the normal minimum then we should see some quality available.
Im keen to take our first to the draft this year, but it would be nice to find a few second and thirds as well.

 

[kernelT]

Isaac Smith for a free hit… get him.

 

[pebblesofsand]

Couldn’t have worked out much better for the Cats. They got 2 elite years out of pick 24. Then through trading him they got themselves back a pick 24, with pick 14, a future 1st rounder (pick 11-18 depending on their finals performance) and an extra pick 33.
Even discounting Kelly’s 2 years as a Cat, they effectively swapped pick 24 and a future third for picks 14, 11-18, 24 and 33.
That’s good business.

Yes but it was only because someone who said he's going home soon as he gets the chance performed like an absolute superstar.

Its a credit to Tim Kelly that not only did he keep his word about going home, he performed at an amazing level for those two years and didn't screw Geelong around when it came to the trade.

Its the thing that amazes me about drafting and trading - not only did none of the recruiters see Kelly as a gun, but they also completely misread his ability to be an utter professional when it came to playing footy - irrespective of which club he is at and for how long he was going to stay there.

 

[The_Steadier]

Isaac Smith for a free hit… get him.

What problem does he fix?

He would simply fill salary cap space we then can't use to fix our real issues, while taking games away from developing our own youngsters.

 

[BigMonty]

I would take him in a flash. Move Billings forward thus removing Kent and Hind from playing as neither are ever going to give us much in finals.

Play another young developing onballer Bytel/Byrnes etc forward for experience....good players can play anywhere.

Issac could really help win us a final or two that's better experience for the group as a whole.

 

[kernelT]

What problem does he fix?

He would simply fill salary cap space we then can't use to fix our real issues, while taking games away from developing our own youngsters.

The problem of winning games?

He's a better wingman than Hill and Billings… has barely missed a game in 10 years.

At worst he could replace Phillips on the list and then we have an extra AFL level player on hand.

Weren't you telling us that Hanners 3 million for 4 years whilst not even playing isn't a problem?

 

[BrutThough]

The problem of winning games?

He's a better wingman than Hill and Billings… has barely missed a game in 10 years.

At worst he could replace Phillips on the list and then we have an extra AFL level player on hand.

Weren't you telling us that Hanners 3 million for 4 years whilst not even playing isn't a problem?

He really isn't that much better than Hill and Billings, so spending the money on a mirco improvement on the wings while not addressing our main issue of an inside mid doesnt seem the most productive thing to do this off season.

 

[StCicatriz]

Kelly was different- he went much later than he would have because he told everyone he would be returning to perf after 2 years.

Cats took the punt on trying to change his mind, nobody was game enough to try it with a pick earlier than in the 20's.

dont think thats true