List Mgmt. 2020 Trade Watch

Remove this Banner Ad

Quigley

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 23, 2006
7,863
6,383
Bangalla
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Cockatoo was drafted so highly on the basis of a great GF day under 18 game. He hadn't done that much for the rest of the year but looked like a million bucks in that game. Since then he has been constantly injured and even when he has managed to get in a couple of games he has not shown anything to suggest he could deliver on that potential at AFL level.

He has played 34 games in 6 seasons. He has averaged over 10 disposals only twice with his highest average only 12.5 disposals in his 2 games in 2018.

I was very high on Cockatoo in that draft but you have to be realistic. At best he is going to be a solid depth player with the downside of his continuing injuries write off his career altogether. Coming in to an offseason when the lists are going to be reduced I cannot see the upside in bringing him in.
 

jackess

Hall of Famer
Aug 10, 2005
39,881
34,764
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Cockatoo was drafted so highly on the basis of a great GF day under 18 game. He hadn't done that much for the rest of the year but looked like a million bucks in that game. Since then he has been constantly injured and even when he has managed to get in a couple of games he has not shown anything to suggest he could deliver on that potential at AFL level.

He has played 34 games in 6 seasons. He has averaged over 10 disposals only twice with his highest average only 12.5 disposals in his 2 games in 2018.

I was very high on Cockatoo in that draft but you have to be realistic. At best he is going to be a solid depth player with the downside of his continuing injuries write off his career altogether. Coming in to an offseason when the lists are going to be reduced I cannot see the upside in bringing him in.
Not sure how you can conclude that his potential has dropped so much between being drafted and now based on having barely played any games since turning 21.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

jackess

Hall of Famer
Aug 10, 2005
39,881
34,764
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Cockatoo was drafted so highly on the basis of a great GF day under 18 game. He hadn't done that much for the rest of the year but looked like a million bucks in that game. Since then he has been constantly injured and even when he has managed to get in a couple of games he has not shown anything to suggest he could deliver on that potential at AFL level.

He has played 34 games in 6 seasons. He has averaged over 10 disposals only twice with his highest average only 12.5 disposals in his 2 games in 2018.

I was very high on Cockatoo in that draft but you have to be realistic. At best he is going to be a solid depth player with the downside of his continuing injuries write off his career altogether. Coming in to an offseason when the lists are going to be reduced I cannot see the upside in bringing him in.
I believe he’s saying his potential wasn’t as high to start with.
:think:
 

Quigley

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 23, 2006
7,863
6,383
Bangalla
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
The games he has played since he has been drafted have suggested that his potential is more consistent with the body of his work as a junior rather than the one outstanding game on grand final day. I bought into him based on that game as much as anyone.
 

Dlions

Premium Platinum
Aug 12, 2016
8,852
10,810
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
The games he has played since he has been drafted have suggested that his potential is more consistent with the body of his work as a junior rather than the one outstanding game on grand final day. I bought into him based on that game as much as anyone.
It could just be that he is a big game player?
Wouldn’t say no to one of them.
 

Jason mp

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 31, 2015
20,031
39,067
By the Gabba.
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Valleys. Chelsea.
Pretty sure it’s just a speculative Suggestion because we need a Key Forward but our name has been mentioned as a possible destination for Jesse Hogan too.
It appears we are after them all, Daniher, Brown, Gunston, Hogan.
Of those I think a fully fit and motivated Jesse Hogan would be the best get, at his best he is a beast 1 v 1 and is mobile around the ground as well. Unlikely to happen though would cost too much in trade and in the cap you would think.
 

Saucery

Does this rag smell like chloroform?
Mar 20, 2016
1,174
2,177
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I really don't want another fading Hawthorn star from yesteryear
Hodge worked brilliantly because not only was he what we badly needed but he maintained his standards as a player.
He was undoubtedly best 22 for two years, whereas Birchall is fringe at best on my view.
Surely we couldn't now add I Smith as well and have both of them running around from week to week .
We are not a developing side anymore
Big finals, Grantd finals and Premierships for a sustained period should be our aim for the next 3-5 years and I can't see Birchall or Smith as part of that plan


On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app
And yet that's exactly what Hawthorn did themselves to keep their finals window open for so long, they recruited older role players. There's no doubt they have hit the wall on that theory but I would argue Geelong does much the same. If we can keep our window open as long as they have I'll be chuffed. Follow the Fagan mantra, trade for need, draft for talent. Also I think Birch has straightened us up a lot by looking into the corridor, choosing good options and kicking precisely. Fringe or not he is still a class act and has much to teach witho etal.
 

Tassie4ever

Premiership Player
Dec 7, 2007
3,154
2,100
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Hawthorn
Agree 100%. Hodgee coming into the club was a master stroke but Birchall isn't working out in my opinion and I kinda think Smith would follow the same theme as Birchall. Plus the fact that we would need to use another list spot on a guy that is not a long term part of our journey.
With the greatest respect, Birchall isn't in the same street as Hodge. Never was, for that matter.

To my uneducated eye, he is slower to tactical space, overweight, and hasn't anywhere near the same game impact.

But that's just me.

We're better off going with development, IMHO.
 

cotter101

Bigfooty Enforcer
Nov 11, 2010
10,808
8,192
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
The games he has played since he has been drafted have suggested that his potential is more consistent with the body of his work as a junior rather than the one outstanding game on grand final day. I bought into him based on that game as much as anyone.
I think he’d always been showing glimpses of his talent. But yeah, that game boosted his stock dramatically.

I still think he has a stack of talent and is well worth a shot without overpaying both in terms of cap space and as the trade table.
 

Ralphy2017

Senior List
Jul 16, 2017
278
290
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Will be quite pissed if Smith comes here at 32 on a multiple year deal. To be frank It would lower my opinion of Fagan and I worry it might see some dissatisfaction in the ranks. We are not a Palm Beach FFS! Hodge worked. It was exactly what we needed at the time. I wasn't happy we replaced him with Birchall and I'm still not really. Perhaps he will have a couple of huge games in the finals to justify his recruitment. If we add Smith then........
Agree 100%
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

bungalow_bill

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 11, 2010
6,939
6,890
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Hmmmm, vic winters compared to qld’s could be a factor. Sounds ridiculous but you never know.
Lots of interesting info on hamstring injuries in the link below including this which relates to your post-

Exercising and moving about in cold weather, puts you at even more risk for a pulled hamstring.

 

SizeMatters

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 14, 2012
13,062
12,000
Reality
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I'd definitely take Smith for a year or two. Culture builder. From all reports a fantastic person to have around the club. Would be a better pick up than some 18 year old spud we would take with a 4th round pick. Robbo is cooked and from some inside word Fages is getting sick of him and his antics.

Take Cockatoo as well. Both will be crazy cheap. As long as we use our first and second round picks in the draft/trade for urgent needs than I have no issues. Honestly, how many best 22 players are consistently drafted from the 3rd round on wards? Not many.
 

theteamtobeat

Premiership Player
Sep 10, 2011
3,187
1,978
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Cockatoo was drafted so highly on the basis of a great GF day under 18 game. He hadn't done that much for the rest of the year but looked like a million bucks in that game. Since then he has been constantly injured and even when he has managed to get in a couple of games he has not shown anything to suggest he could deliver on that potential at AFL level.

He has played 34 games in 6 seasons. He has averaged over 10 disposals only twice with his highest average only 12.5 disposals in his 2 games in 2018.

I was very high on Cockatoo in that draft but you have to be realistic. At best he is going to be a solid depth player with the downside of his continuing injuries write off his career altogether. Coming in to an offseason when the lists are going to be reduced I cannot see the upside in bringing him in.
I guess you could of said the same thing for McCarthy.
 

briztoon

Wannabe Draft Nuffie
Nov 28, 2015
12,563
12,101
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
NUFC, Philadelphia 76'ers
It could just be that he is a big game player?
Wouldn’t say no to one of them.
It wasn’t a “big game”. It was an “exhibition” game.

Big difference between say a U18 Championship game, and a show piece game that is essentially bruise free footy.
 
Last edited:

briztoon

Wannabe Draft Nuffie
Nov 28, 2015
12,563
12,101
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
NUFC, Philadelphia 76'ers
Not sure how you can conclude that his potential has dropped so much between being drafted and now based on having barely played any games since turning 21.
He over rated the kid, based on an exhibition game. So his potential wasn’t as high as his original rating.


 

briztoon

Wannabe Draft Nuffie
Nov 28, 2015
12,563
12,101
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
NUFC, Philadelphia 76'ers
With the greatest respect, Birchall isn't in the same street as Hodge. Never was, for that matter.

To my uneducated eye, he is slower to tactical space, overweight, and hasn't anywhere near the same game impact.

But that's just me.

We're better off going with development, IMHO.
That’s exactly what Mighty Lions is say in his posts.

Mighty Lions is the president and number 1 cheerleader of the “retire Birchall now” movement.
 

luthor

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 13, 2001
13,758
16,637
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Lions
And yet that's exactly what Hawthorn did themselves to keep their finals window open for so long, they recruited older role players. There's no doubt they have hit the wall on that theory but I would argue Geelong does much the same. If we can keep our window open as long as they have I'll be chuffed. Follow the Fagan mantra, trade for need, draft for talent. Also I think Birch has straightened us up a lot by looking into the corridor, choosing good options and kicking precisely. Fringe or not he is still a class act and has much to teach witho etal.
You are rating Birchall's contribution a lot higher than I am. .

Fair enough. It' a subjective thing and your are entitled to your view.

My point was more that I don't believe we can have TWO former and AGEING stars on our list now that we are ( and hopefully continue to be) genuine Premiership treats.

By the time next season starts Birchall will be 33 and Smith 32. I just can't see both of them occupying a spot in our best 22 so what is the point on acquiring Smith , given that Birchall has a year left to run on his contract? I don't think Hawthorn's topping up in it's glory years involved signing players near the end of their career(s)

As far as teaching our younger guys, the likes of Witherden, Hinge, Answerth etc aren't going to hang around being taught forever.

They had tuition from the best (Hodge) for two years and what they didn't learn from him probably can't be taught
 

WhiteLionFeva

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 19, 2011
12,032
14,499
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Mt Gravatt, MHSOB, FFC, CGS
I'd definitely take Smith for a year or two. Culture builder. From all reports a fantastic person to have around the club. Would be a better pick up than some 18 year old spud we would take with a 4th round pick. Robbo is cooked and from some inside word Fages is getting sick of him and his antics.

Take Cockatoo as well. Both will be crazy cheap. As long as we use our first and second round picks in the draft/trade for urgent needs than I have no issues. Honestly, how many best 22 players are consistently drafted from the 3rd round on wards? Not many.
If the internal view is that Robbo is cooked, one would query why they aren't preferring one of the younger guys. Answer would appear to be that either Robbo is not as cooked as you say or he is but we have no better options. Either way, he is currently worthy of a place in our best 22. At least until the next game. From my perspective it isn't so much Robbo's antics that are hurting us but the fact that he is a marked man in the eyes of the umpires which could be highly risky at crucial moments in a final.
 

SizeMatters

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 14, 2012
13,062
12,000
Reality
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Also bear in mind our list demographics. Zorko, Martin, Rich, Robbo, and probably someone else I've forgotten are a few years off retirement and would be hard to replace. It's literally this year and possibly next year as our window fully open with what we have. I reckon after those names are retired we may go back a little bit as the BAileys, Mccluggaes, Bery's get more consistency and the next tier start to step up. REckon we can steal a premiership this or next year, and go again in 4 years time with a new list.

If we don't make the grand final I fully expect we will go mature aged recruit in this off season. We are missing some depth and a few key pieces IMO.
 

Johnny Bananas

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 10, 2010
5,164
5,914
A sugar refinery
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Let's look at some stats on marking.

Contested marks per game (2018-present):
Brown - 1.45
Cameron - 1.03
Casboult - 1.80
Daniher - 1.79
Gunston - 0.76
Hipwood - 1.02
McStay - 1.65
Wright - 1.21

Marks inside 50 per game (2018-present):
Brown - 2.43
Cameron - 2.13
Casboult - 1.30
Daniher - 2.07
Gunston - 1.71
Hipwood - 1.93
McStay - 1.39
Wright - 1.17

Bearing in mind the sample size for Daniher and Wright is pretty low.

If we assume Fagan wants another tall to complete the forward line, it's worth considering what sort of player he might want. A contested marker? A forward who leads into space for uncontested grabs? Some mix of the two? Neither? It depends on whether we intend to play another tall alongside Hipwood and McStay (complement), or instead of McStay (displacement) so he can use his contested marking further down the ground.

Our current forwards are a decent match for each other in most respects. Hipwood is better on the lead and McStay is better at contested marking. Hipwood is better at kicking for goal from the right than the left (54%-31%), McStay is better from the left than the right (54%-48%, rising to 62%-42% for 2019-2020). As per my previous post on page 87, McStay is better from short range and Hipwood is better from 50+. But both of them aren't particularly accurate kickers overall, especially from midrange (25-49m out).

If we're looking for a complementary forward, you'd figure we want one who covers the things neither of the current two can do well, i.e. kicking accurately, especially from midrange. They don't have to be elite at either contested marking or leading, but it'd be nice to have someone who can do a bit of both. If we want someone to displace McStay in the forward line, they'd have to have his contested game.

Out of the three most hyped key forwards (Brown, Cameron, Daniher), I think Brown offers the best mix of skills. He has a decent enough contested game, is great at leading and he's an elite sharpshooter within the 50. Daniher (limited sample size) can do it all with marking, but he's an awful kick for goal, particularly beyond 50. I'd only take him if we intend to use him as a stay-at-home FF. Cameron is not as good a marking target as Brown and is also less accurate, but you can't argue with his goal output. However, he'd also command the highest salary, and I don't want him on principle for what he did to Harris Andrews.

Gunston and Casboult are two sides of the same coin. Gunston isn't a bad choice if we're looking for a complementary forward, because he can lead well even though he doesn't take a lot of contested marks. I didn't post his accuracy last time but he's decent enough from midrange (51% accuracy) and long range (41%). He's #6 in the Coleman Medal race this season, and is only two seasons removed from kicking 51. Casboult has the contested game to replace McStay in the forward line, and is actually better than Gunston from midrange (57%). His problem is accuracy from short range (54% between 2019-2020).

Then there's Peter Wright. His numbers probably reflect having played a lot of ruck, with few marks inside 50 and a relatively low level of contested marks. He seems to be pretty good at kicking barrels from beyond 50, but I haven't seen enough to trust him in our forward line otherwise. I'd rather just stick fat with Fullarton.

TL;DR - Ben Brown looks good at pretty much everything. Gunston is a good choice for a leading third tall, Casboult for a contested gorilla.
 
Last edited:

Top Bottom