List Mgmt. 2020 Trade Watch

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Tom14

Premiership Player
Oct 13, 2015
4,240
8,851
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Also bear in mind our list demographics. Zorko, Martin, Rich, Robbo, and probably someone else I've forgotten are a few years off retirement and would be hard to replace. It's literally this year and possibly next year as our window fully open with what we have. I reckon after those names are retired we may go back a little bit as the BAileys, Mccluggaes, Bery's get more consistency and the next tier start to step up. REckon we can steal a premiership this or next year, and go again in 4 years time with a new list.

If we don't make the grand final I fully expect we will go mature aged recruit in this off season. We are missing some depth and a few key pieces IMO.
Martin has one more year at best, both Zorko and Robbo are well down on form this year and are contenders for the biggest decline in form across the comp this year for otherwise good players. I think we are positioned to cover for them well enough when they retire in the next 2-3 years.

Rich will be the most difficult one to immediately replace as I don't think we have a solution on the list.
 

bungalow_bill

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 11, 2010
6,968
6,937
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Also bear in mind our list demographics. Zorko, Martin, Rich, Robbo, and probably someone else I've forgotten are a few years off retirement and would be hard to replace. It's literally this year and possibly next year as our window fully open with what we have. I reckon after those names are retired we may go back a little bit as the BAileys, Mccluggaes, Bery's get more consistency and the next tier start to step up. REckon we can steal a premiership this or next year, and go again in 4 years time with a new list.

If we don't make the grand final I fully expect we will go mature aged recruit in this off season. We are missing some depth and a few key pieces IMO.
Just as the Hawks did in 2008 and then the 3 peat. Which older Hawks players retired not long after 2008? Crawford and ?
 

mpal6

Premiership Player
Apr 13, 2008
4,450
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While Hodge and McCarthy did work for us, Adams and CEY have tempered my expectations around getting a recycled player from other club. I'm worried if we're pushing our luck with getting Cockatoo fixed.

With list spots at a premium, I felt that we could move above Adams/McCarthy level speculative recruiting to players who have far more runs on board.
 

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Saucery

Does this rag smell like chloroform?
Mar 20, 2016
1,193
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You are rating Birchall's contribution a lot higher than I am. .

Fair enough. It' a subjective thing and your are entitled to your view.

My point was more that I don't believe we can have TWO former and AGEING stars on our list now that we are ( and hopefully continue to be) genuine Premiership treats.

By the time next season starts Birchall will be 33 and Smith 32. I just can't see both of them occupying a spot in our best 22 so what is the point on acquiring Smith , given that Birchall has a year left to run on his contract? I don't think Hawthorn's topping up in it's glory years involved signing players near the end of their career(s)

As far as teaching our younger guys, the likes of Witherden, Hinge, Answerth etc aren't going to hang around being taught forever.

They had tuition from the best (Hodge) for two years and what they didn't learn from him probably can't be taught
I understand the Hodge adoration but even he had his limits. To say if he can't teach it it can't be taught seems extreme to me. I never directly advocated for Smith to join the side so I'm unsure as to where that came from. And it's true we won't keep them all, Craig Bolton being a previous example I bought up about how sometimes you will lose some who will prove their worth elsewhere. We agree to disagree on Birchall but he beds down an important roll that is there for others to take off him, if they can.
 

Saucery

Does this rag smell like chloroform?
Mar 20, 2016
1,193
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Brisbane Lions
Also bear in mind our list demographics. Zorko, Martin, Rich, Robbo, and probably someone else I've forgotten are a few years off retirement and would be hard to replace. It's literally this year and possibly next year as our window fully open with what we have. I reckon after those names are retired we may go back a little bit as the BAileys, Mccluggaes, Bery's get more consistency and the next tier start to step up. REckon we can steal a premiership this or next year, and go again in 4 years time with a new list.

If we don't make the grand final I fully expect we will go mature aged recruit in this off season. We are missing some depth and a few key pieces IMO.
Yes this is exactly what I have been trying to say.

Also if list sizes decrease then there will never be such a fire sale on top age role players as this.
 

Saucery

Does this rag smell like chloroform?
Mar 20, 2016
1,193
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Let's look at some stats on marking.

Contested marks per game (2018-present):
Brown - 1.45
Cameron - 1.03
Casboult - 1.80
Daniher - 1.79
Gunston - 0.76
Hipwood - 1.02
McStay - 1.65
Wright - 1.21

Marks inside 50 per game (2018-present):
Brown - 2.43
Cameron - 2.13
Casboult - 1.30
Daniher - 2.07
Gunston - 1.71
Hipwood - 1.93
McStay - 1.39
Wright - 1.17

Bearing in mind the sample size for Daniher and Wright is pretty low.

If we assume Fagan wants another tall to complete the forward line, it's worth considering what sort of player he might want. A contested marker? A forward who leads into space for uncontested grabs? Some mix of the two? Neither? It depends on whether we intend to play another tall alongside Hipwood and McStay (complement), or instead of McStay (displacement) so he can use his contested marking further down the ground.

Our current forwards are a decent match for each other in most respects. Hipwood is better on the lead and McStay is better at contested marking. Hipwood is better at kicking for goal from the right than the left (54%-31%), McStay is better from the left than the right (54%-48%, rising to 62%-42% for 2019-2020). As per my previous post on page 87, McStay is better from short range and Hipwood is better from 50+. But both of them aren't particularly accurate kickers overall, especially from midrange (25-49m out).

If we're looking for a complementary forward, you'd figure we want one who covers the things neither of the current two can do well, i.e. kicking accurately, especially from midrange. They don't have to be elite at either contested marking or leading, but it'd be nice to have someone who can do a bit of both. If we want someone to displace McStay in the forward line, they'd have to have his contested game.

Out of the three most hyped key forwards (Brown, Cameron, Daniher), I think Brown offers the best mix of skills. He has a decent enough contested game, is great at leading and he's an elite sharpshooter within the 50. Daniher (limited sample size) can do it all with marking, but he's an awful kick for goal, particularly beyond 50. I'd only take him if we intend to use him as a stay-at-home FF. Cameron is not as good a marking target as Brown and is also less accurate, but you can't argue with his goal output. However, he'd also command the highest salary, and I don't want him on principle for what he did to Harris Andrews.

Gunston and Casboult are two sides of the same coin. Gunston isn't a bad choice if we're looking for a complementary forward, because he can lead well even though he doesn't take a lot of contested marks. I didn't post his accuracy last time but he's decent enough from midrange (51% accuracy) and long range (41%). He's #6 in the Coleman Medal race this season, and is only two seasons removed from kicking 51. Casboult has the contested game to replace McStay in the forward line, and is actually better than Gunston from midrange (57%). His problem is accuracy from short range (54% between 2019-2020).

Then there's Peter Wright. His numbers probably reflect having played a lot of ruck, with few marks inside 50 and a relatively low level of contested marks. He seems to be pretty good at kicking barrels from beyond 50, but I haven't seen enough to trust him in our forward line otherwise. I'd rather just stick fat with Fullarton.

TL;DR - Ben Brown looks good at pretty much everything. Gunston is a good choice for a leading third tall, Casboult for a contested gorilla.
Brilliant post, well researched and posited. I think you are right that Brown is the best option regardless of his poor year, given his personal issues and the fact that Norf had given up playing. The only consideration is what Norf will ask for him.

Casboult is my second, and a close second at that. To have two tall, brutal mark clunkers in McStay (HB) and Casboult (HF) covering the arcs could be a game breaker.
 
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Berrygood

Team Captain
Aug 27, 2017
462
723
Sunshine Coast
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I'd definitely take Smith for a year or two. Culture builder. From all reports a fantastic person to have around the club. Would be a better pick up than some 18 year old spud we would take with a 4th round pick. Robbo is cooked and from some inside word Fages is getting sick of him and his antics.

Take Cockatoo as well. Both will be crazy cheap. As long as we use our first and second round picks in the draft/trade for urgent needs than I have no issues. Honestly, how many best 22 players are consistently drafted from the 3rd round on wards? Not many.
I dont think there is anything wrong with the culture at the club but continually bringing in ageing hawthorne players at the expense of young talent could certainly cause one.
 

FromOldFitzroy

Debutant
Jan 29, 2011
139
148
Werribee
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
My Twopennyworth:
A big no to recycled players like Smith and Cockatoo, as midfielders, and Casboult and Daniher as forwards.
First issue: injuries. While it worked ok with McCarthy, it hasn’t worked well with Adams. Adams didn’t look great against Richmond in a final last year (not entirely his fault) nor against Burgoyne round 1 this year, which wasn’t an issue of delivery into the forward line, just he didn’t seem to have football ‘smarts.’
Second issue: accuracy. Even assuming you could keep Daniher fit and on the park, there’s the matter of how much he’ll demand in pay compared to his accuracy. Remember when he was taking shots from 30 metres out around his body? Casboult is unlikely to impact games enough to warrant chasing. It would be better to develop long term options like Fullerton or Ballanden who we already have.
On the other hand, I would be very interested in Ben Brown.

Zac Williams and a few others like Perryman would probably head down to Melbourne as their first choice.
Blakely from Freo would be worth asking the question of. He was going to be a gun until things went wrong for him.

Finally, Robinson has been much discussed here. I wonder whether CEY could be a crash-bang replacement. He’s a big unit.
 

Gadzorks

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 23, 2015
5,115
7,255
AFL Club
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7 AFL instagram saying cockatoo on the move to Brisbane. Another injury prone player, hasn't played a game since 2018 due to hamstring issues.

Geelong only offering one year, he wants to follow McCarthy and we are offering more than a year.
 

briztoon

Wannabe Draft Nuffie
Nov 28, 2015
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Also bear in mind our list demographics. Zorko, Martin, Rich, Robbo, and probably someone else I've forgotten are a few years off retirement and would be hard to replace. It's literally this year and possibly next year as our window fully open with what we have. I reckon after those names are retired we may go back a little bit as the BAileys, Mccluggaes, Bery's get more consistency and the next tier start to step up. REckon we can steal a premiership this or next year, and go again in 4 years time with a new list.

If we don't make the grand final I fully expect we will go mature aged recruit in this off season. We are missing some depth and a few key pieces IMO.
Hmmm. I said something similar a little while ago, and copped some heat, suggesting we’d fall back a little while other teams stepped up.
 

Johnny Bananas

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 10, 2010
5,267
6,048
A sugar refinery
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Would be one more top midfielder give us true domination in the centre? I find myself thinking back to the days of the Fab Four steamrolling everyone on the way to three flags. While Neale is elite and Lyons and Zorko are very good, I'm not convinced our midfield as it is will get over the top in a grand final. Perhaps there's someone who can be shaken free of another club for one of our picks. Would Cunnington fit the bill? Could we go for a package deal with Brown and Cunnington?
 
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Jason mp

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 31, 2015
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Would be one more top midfielder give us true domination in the centre? I find myself thinking back to the days of the Fab Four steamrolling everyone on the way to three flags. While Neale is elite and Lyons and Zorko are very good, I'm not convinced our midfield as it is will get over the top in a grand final. Perhaps there's someone who can be shaken free of another club for one of our firsts. Would Cunnington fit the bill? Could we go for a package deal with Brown and Cunnington?
Neale and Lyons both have 3+ years left after 2020, then we have McCluggage and J.Berry who are presently very good and are a good chance break into the elite category as early as next season IMO, I'm also very bullish on Bailey being an extremely good balanced mid. + Cam Rayner who I think as soon as 1 more hard working pre season while not a full time midfielder could be a very damaging explosive midfielder with something like a 60fwd/40mid mix. Only 2 games in but Coleman looks like being a very good fwd/winger as well.

In saying that I definitely wouldn't say no to another elite mid in the right age bracket, one of the GWS guys would be ideal eg. Caldwell/Perryman/Williams.
 

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scoman

Premiership Player
Sep 19, 2013
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Would be one more top midfielder give us true domination in the centre? I find myself thinking back to the days of the Fab Four steamrolling everyone on the way to three flags. While Neale is elite and Lyons and Zorko are very good, I'm not convinced our midfield as it is will get over the top in a grand final. Perhaps there's someone who can be shaken free of another club for one of our picks. Would Cunnington fit the bill? Could we go for a package deal with Brown and Cunnington?
Think we have the Cunnington type already. If we are wanting another mid it should be a more damaging player. Someone like Zac Williams would be perfect, but unlikely by all reports. Having said that Berry and Clugga are not that far away to reaching that A Grade quality either to be fair.
 

Jason mp

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 31, 2015
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TBF, it wasn’t just the Fab 4 though. Shaun Hart was a seriously good footballer, and has a Norm Smith Medal in his trophy cabinet.
Perhaps not as gifted naturally but he worked really hard.
And Luke Power. :heart: + you can't forget the Buckley destroyer Robbie Copeland.
 

scoman

Premiership Player
Sep 19, 2013
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Lot of weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth about us recruiting Isaac Smith for 3 years, which has been put forward by: one poster on the Hawks board.
It's what we do on here. It's the nature of a forum. Someone posts something. Others react. I don't see the problem.
 

mpal6

Premiership Player
Apr 13, 2008
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Would be one more top midfielder give us true domination in the centre? I find myself thinking back to the days of the Fab Four steamrolling everyone on the way to three flags. While Neale is elite and Lyons and Zorko are very good, I'm not convinced our midfield as it is will get over the top in a grand final. Perhaps there's someone who can be shaken free of another club for one of our picks. Would Cunnington fit the bill? Could we go for a package deal with Brown and Cunnington?
To answer that centre bounce domination - we have 3 in reserves like Mathieson, Robertson and Ely. On top of that we recruited CEY as stop gap. I'll be very surprised if none of them step up by next year and take that spot.

My wish is Starce to move to the middle this off season and become that bigger body player. I love his evasiveness and wouldn't be beaten that easily, he'll look awesome in the middle or wing. We could either get Prior going in defense or recruit a Perryman to be that utility defender.
 

Tom14

Premiership Player
Oct 13, 2015
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I was definitely not interested, but Finlayson's re-signed at GWS for 3 years. Bit of a weird decision for GWS given the claims about lack of cap space.

 

mpal6

Premiership Player
Apr 13, 2008
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I was definitely not interested, but Finlayson's re-signed at GWS for 3 years. Bit of a weird decision for GWS given the claims about lack of cap space.

Must've come at a reasonable price. He's a good third tall / utility.
 

luthor

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Oct 13, 2001
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I was definitely not interested, but Finlayson's re-signed at GWS for 3 years. Bit of a weird decision for GWS given the claims about lack of cap space.


Maybe they've given up on Cameron re-signing :think:...................

............and have decided to shore up what they can now.
 

scoman

Premiership Player
Sep 19, 2013
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Maybe they've given up on Cameron re-signing :think:...................

............and have decided to shore up what they can now.
Seems to be a bad vibe down there. They can't be playing so poorly and inconsistently if everyone is happy. I think there will be a few abandoning ship this year.
 

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