Opinion 2020 US Presidential Nominations and Election

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morax

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The Democratic candidates
 

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Baltimore Jack

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Sanders wins Nevada easily

Biden maybe placed second but a long way back from the winner
 

Professor Knowall

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I'm just back from yet another (work related) trip to the US, this time to Ohio and Texas, and even included a 2 day 'Intro to U.S. Politics' course, which made me realise how little Impreviously knew and how little can be learnt just by relying on Australian media, but also an awareness of how American media covers politics, with no great traditions of bi-partisanship e.g. the long standing strong ties between the Washington Post and Democratic Party establishment, even sharing the same office building for decades. Interesting that the Post has been very frosty towards Sanders and vice versa.

Speaking to both Democrats and Republicans (I'm treating the whole thing as a disinterested popcorn munching observer, though looking at possible affects on a particular business), the Democrats, having endured a shocking month, were nearly all very pessimistic, while the Republicans were hugely optimistic, particularly with Sanders doing so well, and Biden so poorly and under the spotlight with family corruption.

Ohio, traditionally considered a bell weather state, is now seen as safely republican (and even safer for Trump), while Texas remains safe for Trump. The mood of Democrat pessimism that I've found first hand is reflected in this (solidly Democratic) New York Times article -
 

Professor Knowall

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Yet we have this only a few days ago

View attachment 827623
I learned to forget all about U.S opinion polls, as they are notoriously innacurate, due to various factors like non compulsory voting, the electoral college and the tens of millions still living in small towns and rural areas being generally under represented in these polls due to the extra expenses needed to reach them.

Always follow the money trail for a more reliable guide. Here is just one example - https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures
 
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Professor Knowall

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As expected (just like in 2016) the Democratic Party establishment are sharpening their claws against the radical outsider, Bernie Sanders (he has never actually been a member of the Democratic Party) using their main Dem Party establishment mouthpieces of the New York Times, Washington Post and NBC. Even the normally very left wing CNN has joined in the criticism, as Biden appears to now be in the box seat to take South Carolina with its very large black vote.
Here's an example from the New York Times -
 

Baltimore Jack

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Biden easily wins South Carolina (50%)
Sanders second (20%) and picked up a few pledged delegates
 

Professor Knowall

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morax

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Both the NYT and Washington Post have hailed the South Carolina result as the possible saviour of the Democratic Party, with the black vote in particular delivering overwhelmingly for Biden -

The NYT claiming Sanders is the Democratic Party version of Trump, or even worse -
Be mindful that David Brookes is very much a conservative. I read the piece. It does cover a area where Sanders is vulnerable. A nuanced understanding of Sanders previous comments does placate progressives but in a general election it very well could be a problem.

Its important to understand the push back that comes from the political elite and establishment when somebody threatens the status quo. Its also important to remember the working class have had enough. Washington is a corrupt cesspool. Trump was going to change it but instead just brought in a different type of swamp.

Super Tuesday is nearly upon us. I have the popcorn ready
 

Baltimore Jack

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Buttigieg......(possibly said to his backers ;)) "I've had enough folks, I'm out of here, it was fun"
 

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Professor Knowall

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Boy oh Boy! WOWEE! Super Tuesday was meant to propel Sanders to a near unbeatable lead in the race for delegates. To the shock of nearly all pundits (though the first clew was the overwhelming North Carolina victory last weekend), Biden, not Sanders, has emerged as the Super Tuesday's victor, by carrying a swag of states including Texas (where Sanders was strongly favoured) and even Massachusets, a total shock. Yes, Biden did win the biggest of all in California but even this wasn't a great result for him - he had been expected to win all 415 Californian delegates, but instead both Biden and Bloomberg won enough votes to grab a good share of the Californian delegates on offer.

Warren (who though getting a lot of mainstream press endorsement including the NYT seemingly only appeals to certain art loving Ivy League graduates that read 'The New Yorker' magazine and 'Vox' but has no appeal to anyone else) is seemingly finished, finishing a dismal third and humiliated in her home state of Massachusetts.

Bloomberg also won't win, no matter how much he spends, though he did surprisingly well in California, mainly at the expense of Biden.

Biden (with the overwhelming support of the Party establishment) has arisen from the dead to snatch the lead from Sanders (Trump will not be happy). Sanders didn't help himself through the week by a politically stupid speech praising Fidel Castro and the Cuban revolution then predicting an American revolution under himself. IMO, Biden is the only hope the Democratic Party has for defeating Trump (though it's no guarantee). Sanders is simply far too radical (up until the age of 50 he was an open Trotskyist calling for violent revolution before embracing 'democratic socialism' after the fall of the Soviet Union) and too big a risk and will get slaughtered in any Presidential election - and the Democratic Party establishment know this, hence their desperation to eliminate him.

One other thing - if Mayor Pete cares to campaign again for the Presidency in the year 2060, he will still be younger then than what Sanders is now.
 

Kappa

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Biden is not going to energise the masses, Bernie supporters are not going to support him too much.

Trump's election to lose
 

morax

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The only way to try and predict a outcome is through the electoral college. Biden has good leads on Trump in many purple states. Texas is bigly. Hold 2016 states and add Texas, its over. He won't be running against Clinton this time either.

Its going to be super tight. Watching Trump cultists cry would be a highlight but four more years of the greatest political buffoon in history ruin the US would also be quite entertaining. Win win
 

Professor Knowall

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The Empire (in this case being the Democratic Party establishment) has really struck back!

In yet another big boost for Biden, Bloomberg has withdrawn after sinking over US$500 million into his campaign (thus proving the truth of the old Beatles song 'Money Can't Buy me Love'), and has also endorsed Biden. It's been reported that this former long time Republican he only ran because he wanted to stop Sanders and thought Biden was no longer capable of doing it - until the events of the last week.

Biden now stands alone as the sole 'moderate' against the 'bolshie' Sanders and the other irrelevant leftie in Warren and without his base being split, and with the help of the Democratic Party establishment (including the mainstream media) he is now the clear front runner.
 

Maggie5

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Not as invested in this as much at this stage but a few thoughts on Biden facing Trump.

Firstly not sure that Trump still has the support of many Independents and also Democrats that jumped ship and voted for him.

Has he managed to grow his support base?

With the support of Pete, Amy and Bloomberg this seems to give Biden a bigger advantage over Sanders however will those that supported the others climb on the Biden bandwagon?

I also think that some Republicans may look to Biden as an alternative as it appears he has worked cooperatively with Republicans in the past.

Another key factor will be turnout for both sides. It is all well to favour one or the other but which side will actually turn up and vote for their preferred candidate?

Lastly, I don't think that Trump will gain that much by attacking Biden on non policy issues as I believe Americans are more than over that.
 

magpie_marty

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Lastly, I don't think that Trump will gain that much by attacking Biden on non policy issues as I believe Americans are more than over that.
100% Agree.
In regards to Biden and the (effort Trump went to regarding the Ukraine to get dirt on biden) only to be Impeached,proves he was rather worried re 2020.
But I expect this will happen and will be interesting to watch perhaps another inquiry with the old mayor from New York as the star.
 

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