Opinion 2020 vs 2021 Draft picks value. Are Vic players under rated in 2020?

[go_the_dockers]

With so many players with very little exposed form, there is a going to be a lot of misses early in the 2020 pick especially with the Victorian kids who have not been playing.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

Are 2021 picks are lot more valuable, as players like Sam Sturt don't get picked up.
Do Victorian players slip, or are they picked up on 2019 form only.


Thoughts?

 

[Dangerousfield]

Dangerous and potentially lucrative year for clubs. Every year players rise up or drop down the draft board from where they were pegged as bottom agers.

With no Vic games, there's the potential to draft highly rated bottom agers who never make it at AFL level or draft moderately performed bottom agers who turn into AFL guns. Probably a good year to have a lot of picks in the 30/40/50s as may uncover a draft gem or two or be Geelong with three teens picks and end up with nothing.

Probably the non Vic kids that are playing and performing will rise further up draft boards than they otherwise would because there's a vacuum, leap frogging non playing Vic kids who can't further push their credentials

 

[Strahany]

I could envisage a situation whereby most clubs know Vic kids are unknown qualities, so try to get them on the cheap. One club will pull the trigger early, in fear of someone else doing it, and likely trigger some reaching for the Vic kids which might mitigate a fair amount of their "slide" down the order vs their prospective rankings 12M prior.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Every year there is examples of players rated top 20 at the start of the year who fall so quickly many dont even end up being drafted, and the opposite players who come from the clouds and put in a big year and launch into the top 10.

 

[Davo-27]

With so many players with very little exposed form, there is a going to be a lot of misses early in the 2020 pick especially with the Victorian kids who have not been playing.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

Are 2021 picks are lot more valuable, as players like Sam Sturt don't get picked up.
Do Victorian players slip, or are they picked up on 2019 form only.


Thoughts?

I think that most Victorian kids have been viewed at u16s champs and in their under age years, very few change in their draft years, maybe a handful get better or worse, one of the issues we knew of in 2019 before the interrupted season, was that the Victoria kids in the 2020 draft pool had the worst u16s results in years, both metro and country were destroyed in the u16s which led to people speculating there would be a lack of talent from Victoria which would lead to a lack of Victorians drafted which leads to a weaker draft in general and from looking at the talent, this is my conclusion based on the talent that i have seen in many games in 2019, there does seem to be a lack of top 30 talent from Victoria which has led to there being a top 20-odd instead of a clear top 30-odd, added to this a higher than normal group of academy players linked to clubs and not available in the open draft, covid denying the handful of improvers an opportunity to prove they are draftable, makes this draft a little weaker in depth than other drafts.

Will some players who would have improved in 2020 miss out, yes, there will be a few who might roll into the 2021 draft pool and make it a couple of players deeper than normal, but not a massive change imo.

I don't think there will be too many misses unless clubs go for smokies that don't work out like has happened in the past.

In conclusion it was known in 2018 that this draft would be a little weaker because of the smaller Victorian talent base, the fact a handful of improvers miss out from no footy will add to the lack of depth, this draft seems to have a top 20 instead of top 30 and likely only approx 50 Will get drafted instead of the 75 or so in previous years imo.

 

[Mego Red]

I think that most Victorian kids have been viewed at u16s champs and in their under age years, very few change in their draft years, maybe a handful get better or worse, one of the issues we knew of in 2019 before the interrupted season, was that the Victoria kids in the 2020 draft pool had the worst u16s results in years, both metro and country were destroyed in the u16s which led to people speculating there would be a lack of talent from Victoria which would lead to a lack of Victorians drafted which leads to a weaker draft in general and from looking at the talent, this is my conclusion based on the talent that i have seen in many games in 2019, there does seem to be a lack of top 30 talent from Victoria which has led to there being a top 20-odd instead of a clear top 30-odd, added to this a higher than normal group of academy players linked to clubs and not available in the open draft, covid denying the handful of improvers an opportunity to prove they are draftable, makes this draft a little weaker in depth than other drafts.

Will some players who would have improved in 2020 miss out, yes, there will be a few who might roll into the 2021 draft pool and make it a couple of players deeper than normal, but not a massive change imo.

I don't think there will be too many misses unless clubs go for smokies that don't work out like has happened in the past.

In conclusion it was known in 2018 that this draft would be a little weaker because of the smaller Victorian talent base, the fact a handful of improvers miss out from no footy will add to the lack of depth, this draft seems to have a top 20 instead of top 30 and likely only approx 50 Will get drafted instead of the 75 or so in previous years imo.

Jesus, use a full stop every now and again, will ya?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Remember the NAB League is extending to U19s from next year, so the final year bolters will still be able to show their stuff next year. I'd be wary of drafting any Victorians who don't perform well at the national championships though, assuming they're held at some point.

 

[TradeDraft]

Every year there is examples of players rated top 20 at the start of the year who fall so quickly many dont even end up being drafted, and the opposite players who come from the clouds and put in a big year and launch into the top 10.

Because of that we might see lot more Busts and Steals then there been in a Draft for awhile

 

[TradeDraft]

Still could get a Few All Star Games in Victoria before the Draft as long the Covid Numbers Go and Stay Down

 

[Giant Strides]

I reckon they will be. Probably not at the top end, but guys in the middle and later areas of the draft will be taken later than might otherwise have been the case simply due to lack of visibility of their talent during the season. Should be a few draft surprises from the later selections.

 

[kickthething]

Wonder what your thoughts are around Peter Wright. High draft pick in 2014 and looked promising for a couple of seasons but now going nowhere at the Suns. How have you judged his development post drafting v what he was doing at Calder? Where do you think he would be a fit given the Suns trying to offload him or do you think he has peaked?

 

[Smythe]

Wonder what your thoughts are around Peter Wright. High draft pick in 2014 and looked promising for a couple of seasons but now going nowhere at the Suns. How have you judged his development post drafting v what he was doing at Calder? Where do you think he would be a fit given the Suns trying to offload him or do you think he has peaked?

If i can throw my 2 cents in here, Peter is a competitive ruck who can drift forward and be an option. When it comes to GC in the ruck he is easily surpassed by Witts, and when forward he is easily surpassed by King, so the 2 positions he could be good and serviceable at are taken. Up there he is a handy back up. Let's take Essendon for example as they have shown interest, Draper is now the number 1 ruck who i see as an active ruck drifting around the ground Grundy style, and in the forward department they are not sure whats going on there. So Wrighty would be a very good fit at the Bombers as a ruckman drifting forward where Draper can ruck and go everywhere, drifting 1 kick back if Peter is forward. He could really develop better (as most players do) in the right environment, which would be to a club with only 1 ruck option and/or only 1 fwd option. I think as a straight forward option he is good below his knees but 1 on 1 is where he could develpo his game better so as a straight forward FWD option i don't think he would be the right choice for a club, he would be needed to fill both roles. He is a great kick and as i said good below his knees but needs to either mark the ball or bring it to ground for the likes of rankine to sweep through and crumb, which is why at GC he is not getting a game and has been told to work on his craft and others have passed him. That is the role he needs to play but King is better at it at the moment and probably more agile. A physical change, body-wise, would be a good start this off-season for Wrighty and a fresh start at a new club that could offer him the role he was born to play would see his development come to fruition.

 

[briztoon]

If i can throw my 2 cents in here, Peter is a competitive ruck who can drift forward and be an option. When it comes to GC in the ruck he is easily surpassed by Witts, and when forward he is easily surpassed by King, so the 2 positions he could be good and serviceable at are taken. Up there he is a handy back up. Let's take Essendon for example as they have shown interest, Draper is now the number 1 ruck who i see as an active ruck drifting around the ground Grundy style, and in the forward department they are not sure whats going on there. So Wrighty would be a very good fit at the Bombers as a ruckman drifting forward where Draper can ruck and go everywhere, drifting 1 kick back if Peter is forward. He could really develop better (as most players do) in the right environment, which would be to a club with only 1 ruck option and/or only 1 fwd option. I think as a straight forward option he is good below his knees but 1 on 1 is where he could develpo his game better so as a straight forward FWD option i don't think he would be the right choice for a club, he would be needed to fill both roles. He is a great kick and as i said good below his knees but needs to either mark the ball or bring it to ground for the likes of rankine to sweep through and crumb, which is why at GC he is not getting a game and has been told to work on his craft and others have passed him. That is the role he needs to play but King is better at it at the moment and probably more agile. A physical change, body-wise, would be a good start this off-season for Wrighty and a fresh start at a new club that could offer him the role he was born to play would see his development come to fruition.

Word from the GC board was that Wright wasn’t keen on playing ruck.

 

[kickthething]

Word from the GC board was that Wright wasn’t keen on playing ruck.

career limiting for him if correct

 

[eastfreo75]

Word from the GC board was that Wright wasn’t keen on playing ruck.

If true, it's pretty childish.