List Mgmt. 2020 Young Talent time

[Lach72]

May as well start something here now.

Given our last draft, full of skillful players (HB, HF/mid, Mid/small forward and a speedy winger) it seems the main list needs we have are a tall key back and a developing ruck IMO.

We have Western, the Walker twins (and Haddow?) available if we so choose.

Grainger-Barrass is the obvious one to look at as a KPB. Great reader of the play and a good mark. O'Driscoll from WA is the other one I've paid attention to. (I haven't paid any attention to the east coast under-age kids this year).
Variables being that we don't know how far our 1st round will slide back to pay the points deficit.

 

[Scham]

I love seeing some of the behind the scenes footage during the draft.

Melb really focussed on WA this year and they’re (obviously) stoked with the outcome albeit would’ve preferred Robertson over Rivers but he was realistically never going to be there for them.

“The extra trips to WA this year have paid off.”
“Paying us back in spades!”

 

[Scham]

May as well start something here now.

Given our last draft, full of skillful players (HB, HF/mid, Mid/small forward and a speedy winger) it seems the main list needs we have are a tall key back and a developing ruck IMO.

We have Western, the Walker twins (and Haddow?) available if we so choose.

Grainger-Barrass is the obvious one to look at as a KPB. Great reader of the play and a good mark. O'Driscoll from WA is the other one I've paid attention to. (I haven't paid any attention to the east coast under-age kids this year).
Variables being that we don't know how far our 1st round will slide back to pay the points deficit.

I think the list is really well balanced at this stage, the season ahead will indicate where the gaps are.

A group of players have to step up or be delisted.

The youngsters have to develop into being bonafide AFL players.

Another group need to step up to hold down a best 22 position more consistently.

Pearce and Hill need to stay healthy.

A few will no doubt be challenged with a new role throughout the season.

Lots of water to go under the bridge.

 

[Monument Hills]

I love seeing some of the behind the scenes footage during the draft.

Melb really focussed on WA this year and they’re (obviously) stoked with the outcome albeit would’ve preferred Robertson over Rivers but he was realistically never going to be there for them.

“The extra trips to WA this year have paid off.”
“Paying us back in spades!”

didn't they learn from Hogan

 

[Scham]

didn't they learn from Hogan

Maybe they did and picked a bit more on character this time?

 

[Monument Hills]

Maybe they did and picked a bit more on character this time?

How would you know. Might do a 'reverse-Darling'

 

[Joao]

Best available midfield/utility/forward with our first. I rate DGB but unless AP stays injured it will be hard to justify selecting a KPD in the first round. Match bids for Western and Brandon.

Developing ruck I guess but that will be a late pick no doubt.

Probably won't be a super interesting draft unless we lose a lot of senior list players (which is definitely possible).

 

[theGav56]

The imbalance in our list is a rather large group of unlikelies (Crowden, North, Giro, Schultz, Banfield etc), a substantial number of injury prone key players who we desperately need in our best 22 (Hogan, Hill, Taberner, Pearce, Valente) and a too small group of A-graders (Fyfe, Walters).

I would add into that an over-weighting in smaller types, and undeveloped youth.

I think we still have some sifting to do.

 

[wayToGo_]

Here is a post I did in another thread pre draft (in the context of us being smart to retain our future 1st - which we did - albeit with a deficit). I'm sure others will provide more detailed info as we get towards the u18 champs next year but it gives...

In the u16 champs last year (so those that will be prospects next year) the WA side thumped Vic Metro 97 to 25, and Vic Country 91 to 37. SA won all three of their games (including narrowly beating WA 69 to 66 in the opening round) and took out the champs. But WA had a massive percentage of 194% (vs 134% for SA). Any time Vic teams (especially Metro) are weak the Vic media calls it a weak draft. Yes it is compromised with over a dozen academy and f/s prospects but there is still plenty of non-aligned top end talent available.

For WA we already have access to two good prospects in Joel Western and Brandon Walker via NGA - it is too early to tell where they'll end up placed but I'm thinking both should end up around top 30ish prospects (ideally both second round worthy). Logan McDonald will be one of the better KPF prospects next year. Denver Grainger-Barras seems likely to be the best KPD. In the midfield WA will have Nathan O'Driscoll (whose sister is a Freo AFLW player) and Zane Trew who are both gun inside ball winners. All of these players were All Australian in u16s except Joel (and he's improving rapidly).

Add to that a bunch of guys who will also be in the mix to be drafted like Ira Jetta (fwd/mid from SF), Jack Carroll (mid from EF), Ty Sears (half back from SD), Isiah Winder (small forward from Peel) and Heath Chapman (intercepting defender from Subi). It doesn't seem too dissimilar to the WA draft pool this year but with some higher rated KPPs in the mix this time. The 2021 WA crop doesn't appear anywhere near as deep but there are still a few standouts like Max Chipper (winger from SD) so we'll have a few capable bottom agers filling gaps in the team as well. I'm giving WA a pretty good shot at backing up from winning the champs this year - although SA should be strong again as well.

One of SA's best prospects is Corey Durdin who is short but an absolute gun and not tied to a club - am assuming he will captain their u18s side next year. Another is Riley Tilthorpe who is a ruck/fwd who many have in the top 5 mix. The best Victorian prospect imo is Elijah Hollands (Murray Bushrangers) who isn't tied to any club and is my early prediction for the #1 pick in 2020 (I thought he was bog for the u17 All Stars game). Tanner Bruhn (from Geelong Falcons) will be thereabouts as well, as will Vic Metro's best prospect, Will Phillips (from Oakleigh Chargers). There are also some good Tasmanian prospects next year, including a defender named Sam Collins - this one is slightly more damaging on the rebound though Fellow Taswegian Jackson Callow should be one of the best KPFs in the pool.

If our future first is going to be around #6 again then I'd be confident we are going to get a gun prospect with that next year. I'm not sure it's worth paying the tax to get someone only in the teens range this draft. If we can get a pick in the 20s plus stop the Henry bid deficit carrying over using the 2 x future 2nds we might get the best of both worlds.

 

[Dockeroo]

It’s a pity we didn’t avoid the points deficit for 2020. We also have only one second rounder left (tied to Melbourne I think). It would be good if we could get 2 players picked before any bids on western and walker. I suppose it depends on how both of those guys play in 2020 as to where they are likely to be drafted. One lesson from this years draft - a future pick is worth sweet f&@k all on draft night. So any trading involving a 2021 second rounder or the like should be done before draft night.
Based on AFL media expectations, we will be bottom 4 in 2020 and end up with a first rounder in the 3-8 range. Hopefully they are underrating us and we’ll have a much better season than that. Unlike 2019 I don’t see too many flight risks from our established players this year that might Request a trade apart from maybe Cerra but that’s just a hunch more than any real evidence, and hopefully he’s happy here, has a breakout season and signs an extension.
Where do people think western and B walker will fall in the draft at this early stage?

 

[theGav56]

It’s a pity we didn’t avoid the points deficit for 2020. We also have only one second rounder left (tied to Melbourne I think). It would be good if we could get 2 players picked before any bids on western and walker. I suppose it depends on how both of those guys play in 2020 as to where they are likely to be drafted. One lesson from this years draft - a future pick is worth sweet f&@k all on draft night. So any trading involving a 2021 second rounder or the like should be done before draft night.
Based on AFL media expectations, we will be bottom 4 in 2020 and end up with a first rounder in the 3-8 range. Hopefully they are underrating us and we’ll have a much better season than that. Unlike 2019 I don’t see too many flight risks from our established players this year that might Request a trade apart from maybe Cerra but that’s just a hunch more than any real evidence, and hopefully he’s happy here, has a breakout season and signs an extension.
Where do people think western and B walker will fall in the draft at this early stage?

I agree Cerra seems the most likely, but Darcy perhaps as well. I have liked what has been written about him in the media and am optimistic he is with us for the long term, but he will be targeted by other clubs

 

[Walkingwounded]

We should really be going for best available.. some good talls available from WA in McDonald and DGB, but also Tilthorpe from S.A.

ODriscoll sprays it a bit much for me, so I’m still looking for that classy outside mid.. like a Stephens in this years draft.

Western and Brandon are more like late second round onwards picks from our NGA, but that could mean we may need to make some room on the Cat B list, so Carter might have to shape up a bit!

 

[theGav56]

We should really be going for best available.. some good talls available from WA in McDonald and DGB, but also Tilthorpe from S.A.

ODriscoll sprays it a bit much for me, so I’m still looking for that classy outside mid.. like a Stephens in this years draft.

Western and Brandon are more like late second round onwards picks from our NGA, but that could mean we may need to make some room on the Cat B list, so Carter might have to shape up a bit!

Tilthorpe sounds amazing. High picks could have a really distorted trade value due to the number of aligned players.

 

[mightymouse75]

Will be interesting watching the Ngas & how their junior football bonds might galvanise their little group.
Encouraging & pushing each other.

 

[Freomaniac]

I think the list is really well balanced at this stage, the season ahead will indicate where the gaps are.

A group of players have to step up or be delisted.

The youngsters have to develop into being bonafide AFL players.

Another group need to step up to hold down a best 22 position more consistently.

Pearce and Hill need to stay healthy.

A few will no doubt be challenged with a new role throughout the season.

Lots of water to go under the bridge.

I'm glad the rebuild has gone ok. The biggest challenge in a 3-5 year rebuild is developing the key position players. each of those players take 3-5 years to develop. Glad most of our kpps are in that 22-27 year range. Some kids and flankers and wingers can improve a fair bit in 1-2 seasons. Hence when teams do rebuilds. They take all the kpps in the 1st year then get all the kids and flankers in the 2nd year. 5 years down the track you should have a core of 22-24 year Olds to build around.

 

[theGav56]

i see a lot more outs than I see decent draft picks for, so hopefully our NGA is discreetly productive.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Who will be this year's No.1 pick? History beckons for NGA Dog

Since the new bidding system came into effect for Academy and father-son prospects in 2015, there has been widespread doubt a club would ever place a bid on a player with the No.1 pick

www.afl.com.au

DGB a likely top 3 pick
Logan McDonald mentioned which is good coz I couldn’t understand why no watchers seem to rate him
O’Driscoll the other one mentioned from WA

 

[wayToGo_]

It will be interesting to see if Elijah Hollands slides due to his ACL. He was my choice for #1 pick until his injury. Someone might get a bargain if they can afford to wait for his rehab.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

It will be interesting to see if Elijah Hollands slides due to his ACL. He was my choice for #1 pick until his injury. Someone might get a bargain if they can afford to wait for his rehab.

Surely he still goes top 10 - though the dude Carlton picked up slide massively due to the same thing last year.

Feels like this is the one Hawks get with pick 14 or something and everyone looks back in 5 years asking why the **** no one picked him up anyway.

Ideally our draft is pretty simple. Walker and Western show enough to go top 20/30 and we just take someone with our first pick to go with the NGAs

 

[Joao]

If Andy, Cez, Serong et al show enough this year to make us comfortable with our mid stocks I am happy to roll the dice on a high risk/high reward type.

 

[theGav56]

Who will be this year's No.1 pick? History beckons for NGA Dog

Since the new bidding system came into effect for Academy and father-son prospects in 2015, there has been widespread doubt a club would ever place a bid on a player with the No.1 pick

www.afl.com.au

DGB a likely top 3 pick
Logan McDonald mentioned which is good coz I couldn’t understand why no watchers seem to rate him
O’Driscoll the other one mentioned from WA

Needs wise, I am all for a fast skillful mid/forward and a mobile skilled ruckman. Tilthorpe seems perfect as a mobile ruck forward, and could potentially be used in the same side as Lobb and Darcy. In fact I would trade our first round and a decent player to get the pick to secure him.

Would love DGB if he has versatility, but otherwise would be hard to justify a likely top 5 pick for a defender. Even now if we are injury free we have good KPDs who won’t get a game (Cox). The scenario I see opening up a list spot in defence is if Logue becomes an option in the midfield, but that seems either unlikely or a few years away. Perhaps, if Cox has a great start to this season then Pearce and Hamling return, we could see an experiment with Logue.

 

[Bastyy]

Think that Zane Trew is one that will end up in the top 5 this year, real exciting talent that I'd love to see at the club (Don't think we need him, but still)

 

[theGav56]

Think that Zane Trew is one that will end up in the top 5 this year, real exciting talent that I'd love to see at the club (Don't think we need him, but still)

Tricky isn’t it with the number if inside mids we have. I guess if Cerra was able to become a more outside player it could happen, but inside mids with vision and decent disposal like Cerra could become are fantastic.

 

[fnerd]

The imbalance in our list is a rather large group of unlikelies (Crowden, North, Giro, Schultz, Banfield etc), a substantial number of injury prone key players who we desperately need in our best 22 (Hogan, Hill, Taberner, Pearce, Valente) and a too small group of A-graders (Fyfe, Walters).

I would add into that an over-weighting in smaller types, and undeveloped youth.

I think we still have some sifting to do.

Agree with this .
Think our list is far from balanced ,yet ,with so many unknowns on the list (due to age/injury).
Eg-will Pearce ever have a good injury run ? - DGB then becomes a genuine target or do we look at someone like Taylor from gws ?
And the big one for me is what of hogan?.
At this stage considering everything I’d be putting him firmly in the unlikely than likely basket. Which means I’d be looking very closely at McDonald and tilthorpe(should be in our sights regardless)
And Unlike most I don’t really rate tabs and think what your getting from him (what we’ve always got) is what we ll always get.)

So if there’s a good mobile kpf around the mark I’d probably be taking them with our first at this stage tho obviously that will indeed change if hogan looks to beat his demons or Hugh pulls his finger out (I still have high hopes for him, has genuine talent)

As for the bolded firmly agree, still seem to havetoo much mix of smaller types and then kpp/third tall types.

So barring our kpf/kpb issues stated previously arising I’d be looking for that FAST mid /fwd type again as our number 1 priority (as Sturt/Henry look our only true decent options).
Think odriscoll can fit in here as definitely has speed.

And As for the A graders thing that’s a no brainer ,if the clubs to genuinely challenge we need more, at this stage doesn’t matter where on the field as long as a few of our recent draftees do become

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I see us finishing between 9th and 15th so I’m really interested to see how McDonald goes this year. With Hogan and Taberner always unavailable and the age of our younger kids I think we need a developing key forward with a high pick and seems like a decent draft for it.

Think our midfield just needs games though it could use a bit more explosiveness / speed. With the NGA / FS we have coming through we are absolutely set for small creative forwards and our back 6 is set - though a bit injury prone for my liking.

McDonald should be right in our range if he has a good year - otherwise Thilthorpe would be my other choice though i suspect we’ll need at least a top 5 pick for him at least