AFL Grand Final 2021 AFL Grand Final - Melbourne v Western Bulldogs 🏆

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Aphrodite

Aphrodite

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Saturday 25th September

Optus Stadium
5:15pm AWST / 7:15pm AEST


Teams:

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Ticketing information: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2021-afl-finals-series-afl-grand-final.1285551/post-72130029
 
Last edited:
Nothing against the plucky Doggies, bur it's the year of the :melbourne: !!!!

Actually am a big fan of the week's break between the Prelim and Grand Finals, gives a real fair chance for players who deserve to play in the GF like Steven May a legitimate chance.


They should keep this every year.

Melbourne by 32 points
Norm Smith Medalist - Clayton Oliver
 

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Garry Lyon or Chris Grant will be presenting the Premiership Cups to the winning Team.

Can't really go wrong with any of those two choices really, I know Lyon is a polarizing figure to many here, bur he is one of the Dees sole surviving playing links to club greats of Melbourne no longer with us sadly, like Flower, Stynes and Wight.

It was probably unfeasible to get Ron Barrasi or Neale Daniher across to present Melbourne with the Cup, so Lyon is the best choice for the Dees imo
 
I think the Dogs get up.

Melbourne for whatever reason produce a lot of their scoring through 'he shouldn't be kicking that from there' goals. Think, Gawn gathering then snapping from 45+ metres or the goal he kicked from the stoppage taking the ball from the ruck; they shouldn't be producing goals from those situations. They're low percentage plays. Now, you might respond with, so are the goals that Smith has been kicking over the last few weeks, which while true also ignores the easy goals they've been getting from Naughton, English, Schache, Weightman. Melbourne produce easy goals through Brown and Fritsch; everyone else (Neale-Bullen, Pickett, Spargo, the mids) come from low percentage situations, IMO. This hurts you because what happens if you have a poor day on GF day, and you don't hit the goals you've kicked for the rest of the season; there's precedent for that happening in a GF, Geelong '08 being an example.

Then, you've got Melbourne's reliance on Gawn. Gawn's been a sensational player this year, and when you have such a dominant ruckman you'd be stupid beyond belief not to rely on them. But if there's one day in which you can beat an A tier ruckman, it's Grand Final day. Midfields that rely on dominant ruckman to win the tap and the ball can and will get toweled up on GF day because the key to robbing them of their A game is by beating that dominant ruck. They've built their plans around Gawn winning; what if Martin/English/Young spend their entire time neutralizing the tap, and Melbourne spend the entire day resetting their midfield? Dogs get their plan A-; Melbourne get their plan C.

And finally, Melbourne rely on Lever and May a lot; Lever sits in the hole, May takes the brute. The dogs lower their eyes, have the talls to keep the two accountable, and have Bont, Smith, Libba, JJ who can and will dob them from long range. Pretty difficult to intercept a ball that's sailing through the sticks from 50m or further out.

Then, you've the 'freekickbulldogs' effect.

screenshot-afltables.com-2021.09.15-11_16_50.png

This is the all time free kicks table, in which the for/against has been produced by percentage on the far right of the page.

Over time, WB have won the most free kicks, and sit second on the ladder for frees against. Outside of Fitzroy, they are the most likely to have a positive free kick differential out of every team in the competition over the duration of any club's existence. It can be said, though, that for the majority of their existence this hasn't been of tremendous aid to them; a positive free kick differential isn't much of a boon if there's no correlation to wins from it. But on grand final day, with the cup on the line and free kicks never having been more valuable - because when you make a resource scarce, it becomes more valuable - this could very much be a definitive factor behind how and why they win this Saturday.

On this ladder, Melbourne sit in the fourth last position. This is not an avenue from which they'll get much help.

Dogs by around 2-3 goals.
 
Gethelred said:
I think the Dogs get up.

Melbourne for whatever reason produce a lot of their scoring through 'he shouldn't be kicking that from there' goals. Think, Gawn gathering then snapping from 45+ metres or the goal he kicked from the stoppage taking the ball from the ruck; they shouldn't be producing goals from those situations. They're low percentage plays. Now, you might respond with, so are the goals that Smith has been kicking over the last few weeks, which while true also ignores the easy goals they've been getting from Naughton, English, Schache, Weightman. Melbourne produce easy goals through Brown and Fritsch; everyone else (Neale-Bullen, Pickett, Spargo, the mids) come from low percentage situations, IMO. This hurts you because what happens if you have a poor day on GF day, and you don't hit the goals you've kicked for the rest of the season; there's precedent for that happening in a GF, Geelong '08 being an example.

Then, you've got Melbourne's reliance on Gawn. Gawn's been a sensational player this year, and when you have such a dominant ruckman you'd be stupid beyond belief not to rely on them. But if there's one day in which you can beat an A tier ruckman, it's Grand Final day. Midfields that rely on dominant ruckman to win the tap and the ball can and will get toweled up on GF day because the key to robbing them of their A game is by beating that dominant ruck. They've built their plans around Gawn winning; what if Martin/English/Young spend their entire time neutralizing the tap, and Melbourne spend the entire day resetting their midfield? Dogs get their plan A-; Melbourne get their plan C.

And finally, Melbourne rely on Lever and May a lot; Lever sits in the hole, May takes the brute. The dogs lower their eyes, have the talls to keep the two accountable, and have Bont, Smith, Libba, JJ who can and will dob them from long range. Pretty difficult to intercept a ball that's sailing through the sticks from 50m or further out.

Then, you've the 'freekickbulldogs' effect.

View attachment 1236247

This is the all time free kicks table, in which the for/against has been produced by percentage on the far right of the page.

Over time, WB have won the most free kicks, and sit second on the ladder for frees against. Outside of Fitzroy, they are the most likely to have a positive free kick differential out of every team in the competition over the duration of any club's existence. It can be said, though, that for the majority of their existence this hasn't been of tremendous aid to them; a positive free kick differential isn't much of a boon if there's no correlation to wins from it. But on grand final day, with the cup on the line and free kicks never having been more valuable - because when you make a resource scarce, it becomes more valuable - this could very much be a definitive factor behind how and why they win this Saturday.

On this ladder, Melbourne sit in the fourth last position. This is not an avenue from which they'll get much help.

Dogs by around 2-3 goals.
Click to expand...

Nup.
 
Neither of these teams winning will bother me so I should be able to watch this and just enjoy the spectacle. Backing the Dees in only because of their long drought, I think their long-suffering supporters deserve some reward for sticking by them. Much the same as I felt about the Bulldogs in 16.
Hope that we see a cracking contest either way.
 

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myblueroan said:
What a wonderful surprise!!!
Please make it Den and Jason.
Click to expand...
He works for Triple M Perth and has been commentating Eagles and Dockers home games for the last few years.

Not sure if his call will be on Triple M Melbourne or if they will have their own call team on the weekend.
 
Quarter time here at Optus.

The umps have it in for both teams

Crowd are asking the question... why can't I smell the home cooking?
 
Gethelred said:
I think the Dogs get up.

Melbourne for whatever reason produce a lot of their scoring through 'he shouldn't be kicking that from there' goals. Think, Gawn gathering then snapping from 45+ metres or the goal he kicked from the stoppage taking the ball from the ruck; they shouldn't be producing goals from those situations. They're low percentage plays. Now, you might respond with, so are the goals that Smith has been kicking over the last few weeks, which while true also ignores the easy goals they've been getting from Naughton, English, Schache, Weightman. Melbourne produce easy goals through Brown and Fritsch; everyone else (Neale-Bullen, Pickett, Spargo, the mids) come from low percentage situations, IMO. This hurts you because what happens if you have a poor day on GF day, and you don't hit the goals you've kicked for the rest of the season; there's precedent for that happening in a GF, Geelong '08 being an example.

Then, you've got Melbourne's reliance on Gawn. Gawn's been a sensational player this year, and when you have such a dominant ruckman you'd be stupid beyond belief not to rely on them. But if there's one day in which you can beat an A tier ruckman, it's Grand Final day. Midfields that rely on dominant ruckman to win the tap and the ball can and will get toweled up on GF day because the key to robbing them of their A game is by beating that dominant ruck. They've built their plans around Gawn winning; what if Martin/English/Young spend their entire time neutralizing the tap, and Melbourne spend the entire day resetting their midfield? Dogs get their plan A-; Melbourne get their plan C.

And finally, Melbourne rely on Lever and May a lot; Lever sits in the hole, May takes the brute. The dogs lower their eyes, have the talls to keep the two accountable, and have Bont, Smith, Libba, JJ who can and will dob them from long range. Pretty difficult to intercept a ball that's sailing through the sticks from 50m or further out.

Then, you've the 'freekickbulldogs' effect.

View attachment 1236247

This is the all time free kicks table, in which the for/against has been produced by percentage on the far right of the page.

Over time, WB have won the most free kicks, and sit second on the ladder for frees against. Outside of Fitzroy, they are the most likely to have a positive free kick differential out of every team in the competition over the duration of any club's existence. It can be said, though, that for the majority of their existence this hasn't been of tremendous aid to them; a positive free kick differential isn't much of a boon if there's no correlation to wins from it. But on grand final day, with the cup on the line and free kicks never having been more valuable - because when you make a resource scarce, it becomes more valuable - this could very much be a definitive factor behind how and why they win this Saturday.

On this ladder, Melbourne sit in the fourth last position. This is not an avenue from which they'll get much help.

Dogs by around 2-3 goals.
Click to expand...
I think dogs too. Cats dont have a ruck which allowed Gawn to dominate. Martin will try and nullify Gawn which I think gives the dogs the edge.
Dogs put a lot of time into Boak, who is the powers key. Demons have good quality in the mids so Im not expecting it to be as easy for the dogs - but I just think they have too many quality mids running through the middle they will eventually out run the dees.
 
hmmm. got some dees mates. they are pumped. the fairy tale is the dees. BUT. I have to agree with matty Lloyd who said if bevo turns the heat up on gawn 2 ways the dogs can prevail. they'll feed off gawn and they should/could also get stuck into him at the same time and try to rattle him. Don't over cook it though. Gawn could relish it. This is the demons game to lose let's face it. And with that i think we could see some wobbly dees wheels. If we're deep into the 3rd quater and the dogs have a good bit of the demons throat the Dees will capitulate. And that's what I think will happen. Dogs fast start like port could start the seed of doubt.

The bont to fire and josh schache to win norm smith.

Dogs by 43.
 
Brighton_Diggins said:
hmmm. got some dees mates. they are pumped. the fairy tale is the dees. BUT. I have to agree with matty Lloyd who said if bevo turns the heat up on gawn 2 ways the dogs can prevail. they'll feed off gawn and they should/could also get stuck into him at the same time and try to rattle him. Don't over cook it though. Gawn could relish it. This is the demons game to lose let's face it. And with that i think we could see some wobbly dees wheels. If we're deep into the 3rd quater and the dogs have a good bit of the demons throat the Dees will capitulate. And that's what I think will happen. Dogs fast start like port could start the seed of doubt.

The bont to fire and josh schache to win norm smith.

Dogs by 43.
Click to expand...
Schache paying $101 to win Normy

#GambleResponsibly
 
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