Preview 2021 AFL National Draft | NM - #1, #20, #42, #47,#72, #77, #95

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Souup

Norm Smith Medallist
May 8, 2005
6,290
8,144
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I just wanted to throw some of my thoughts into here for those that enjoy reading draft-related thoughts and content.

I think recruiters may be having some slight concerns around Horne's season. He's shown plenty of glimpses but is yet to have really elevated his game over the course of the SANFL season. That's not to say his performances haven't improved over the course of the season - they have - but only marginally.

The worry is something I've mentioned in the past, and that is that there's a very real chance he was an early bloomer who dominated his peers due to his size, strength and confidence in his body. I do feel like there's a group closing in on him, mostly due to their significant improvements over this year along with their higher ceilings due to rate of improvement in recent times, height/weight, athletic traits, positional versatility etc.

Guys who are closing in or have a higher potential from my POV are Callaghan, Goater, Gibcus and Erasmus.

I really like Mac Andrew and Wilmot too (both currently in my top 10 along with guys listed above) but I don't think they've got a bigger ceiling than Horne.

I'd still take Horne at #1, but the gap has closed as the year has progressed.
 

Shermanator

2 + 9 + 12 + 24 + 26 + 29 + 40 + JHF = The future
Mar 23, 2001
10,882
29,502
Forever Death riding *
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I just wanted to throw some of my thoughts into here for those that enjoy reading draft-related thoughts and content.

I think recruiters may be having some slight concerns around Horne's season. He's shown plenty of glimpses but is yet to have really elevated his game over the course of the SANFL season. That's not to say his performances haven't improved over the course of the season - they have - but only marginally.

The worry is something I've mentioned in the past, and that is that there's a very real chance he was an early bloomer who dominated his peers due to his size, strength and confidence in his body. I do feel like there's a group closing in on him, mostly due to their significant improvements over this year along with their higher ceilings due to rate of improvement in recent times, height/weight, athletic traits, positional versatility etc.

Guys who are closing in or have a higher potential from my POV are Callaghan, Goater, Gibcus and Erasmus.

I really like Mac Andrew and Wilmot too (both currently in my top 10 along with guys listed above) but I don't think they've got a bigger ceiling than Horne.

I'd still take Horne at #1, but the gap has closed as the year has progressed.
So the hypothetical ‘trade out’ of pick 1 for two first rounders could very much eventuate?..

Would you do 1 & 2022 second for GWS 4 & 7?
 

speedy

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 5, 2001
5,059
2,753
Melbourne, VIC
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I still think its a huge advantage to have pick one, even if the gap between Horne and the others isn't that big. It gives us the option of trading it to the crows for an extra pick plus the first pick in the 2nd round and 1st pick in the preseason draft could be very valuable.

At this stage of the season I would be disappointed to lose last spot for the sake of one extra win. I'm sick of seeing other clubs get multiple f/s, nga and charity picks. We are overdue for some luck from the footy gods.
 

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Harris 10

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 8, 2004
10,960
20,063
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
We get Kelly, GWS don't match on the condition we trade our first for their Pies pick and either the compo or their first.
Currently that would be pick 1 for pick 4 and one of pick 7 or 8. they'd probably want our 2nd rounder as well.

Thoughts?
 

King Corey

Moderator
Jun 9, 2001
30,369
100,265
Windy Hill Safe Injecting Room
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We get Kelly, GWS don't match on the condition we trade our first for their Pies pick and either the compo or their first.
Currently that would be pick 1 for pick 4 and one of pick 7 or 8. they'd probably want our 2nd rounder as well.

Thoughts?
They can stick the 2nd rounder in that context.

1 for 4,7,8 would do the trick. Otherwise we just take Kelly as FA and don't do a trade.

They're getting pick 1. That should come at a premium.
 

Tas

Premium Platinum
Dec 23, 2002
57,401
47,828
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
There can be only one...
I just wanted to throw some of my thoughts into here for those that enjoy reading draft-related thoughts and content.

I think recruiters may be having some slight concerns around Horne's season. He's shown plenty of glimpses but is yet to have really elevated his game over the course of the SANFL season. That's not to say his performances haven't improved over the course of the season - they have - but only marginally.

The worry is something I've mentioned in the past, and that is that there's a very real chance he was an early bloomer who dominated his peers due to his size, strength and confidence in his body. I do feel like there's a group closing in on him, mostly due to their significant improvements over this year along with their higher ceilings due to rate of improvement in recent times, height/weight, athletic traits, positional versatility etc.

Guys who are closing in or have a higher potential from my POV are Callaghan, Goater, Gibcus and Erasmus.

I really like Mac Andrew and Wilmot too (both currently in my top 10 along with guys listed above) but I don't think they've got a bigger ceiling than Horne.

I'd still take Horne at #1, but the gap has closed as the year has progressed.
That is always going to be a concern, part of the reason why so many early picks historically haven't come on, there are no taggers at the junior level so if you are damaging while being allowed to have space but don't have that natural instinct on how to lose a close tag in traffic then you could struggle at AFL. Even Cunnington struggles with a hard tag at times.

One could also say Phillips hasn't shown a whole lot at AFL level either, I think if you play as a mid who gets his own ball it can take a while to blossom. Simpkin was horrible in his first few years, then it clicked and he became an animal. He just struggles a bit with the consistency of it.

It is Horne's X factor that he has which is something you can't develop in players who are great athletes and transition well into the AFL. If Atley had X factor he would have gone from a bit of a plodder to an elite of the game but he hasn't got it, when there is space in front of him he is hesitant, doesn't seem comfortable taking on the opposition.

I am curious which path we take because we seemed to be keen on Hollands and McDonald, who were higher risk, higher reward types, but we went with Phillips whom we hardly talked to while he was a junior. I'm curious as to what the thought process was, but it is unlikely we will ever find out.
 

Swallow_Wood

Club Legend
Jun 11, 2015
2,066
8,212
AFL Club
North Melbourne
That is always going to be a concern, part of the reason why so many early picks historically haven't come on, there are no taggers at the junior level so if you are damaging while being allowed to have space but don't have that natural instinct on how to lose a close tag in traffic then you could struggle at AFL. Even Cunnington struggles with a hard tag at times.

One could also say Phillips hasn't shown a whole lot at AFL level either, I think if you play as a mid who gets his own ball it can take a while to blossom. Simpkin was horrible in his first few years, then it clicked and he became an animal. He just struggles a bit with the consistency of it.

It is Horne's X factor that he has which is something you can't develop in players who are great athletes and transition well into the AFL. If Atley had X factor he would have gone from a bit of a plodder to an elite of the game but he hasn't got it, when there is space in front of him he is hesitant, doesn't seem comfortable taking on the opposition.

I am curious which path we take because we seemed to be keen on Hollands and McDonald, who were higher risk, higher reward types, but we went with Phillips whom we hardly talked to while he was a junior. I'm curious as to what the thought process was, but it is unlikely we will ever find out.
Plenty talked about Phillips. He was always on the radar as a top 5 prospect but as with each draft the shiny new toys gained in popularity closer to Christmas.
 

Tas

Premium Platinum
Dec 23, 2002
57,401
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There can be only one...
Plenty talked about Phillips. He was always on the radar as a top 5 prospect but as with each draft the shiny new toys gained in popularity closer to Christmas.
Well, even Phillips said when interviewed he was a bit surprised we took him because we hadn't really talked to him that much.

I don't think it matters now, and despite a slow start I think he will be a ripper in time.
 

Passmore

Brownlow Medallist
May 22, 2001
16,236
44,600
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AFL Club
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That is always going to be a concern, part of the reason why so many early picks historically haven't come on, there are no taggers at the junior level so if you are damaging while being allowed to have space but don't have that natural instinct on how to lose a close tag in traffic then you could struggle at AFL. Even Cunnington struggles with a hard tag at times.

One could also say Phillips hasn't shown a whole lot at AFL level either, I think if you play as a mid who gets his own ball it can take a while to blossom. Simpkin was horrible in his first few years, then it clicked and he became an animal. He just struggles a bit with the consistency of it.

It is Horne's X factor that he has which is something you can't develop in players who are great athletes and transition well into the AFL. If Atley had X factor he would have gone from a bit of a plodder to an elite of the game but he hasn't got it, when there is space in front of him he is hesitant, doesn't seem comfortable taking on the opposition.

I am curious which path we take because we seemed to be keen on Hollands and McDonald, who were higher risk, higher reward types, but we went with Phillips whom we hardly talked to while he was a junior. I'm curious as to what the thought process was, but it is unlikely we will ever find out.
There’s been nothing specific said, but you listen to/ read interviews and you pick up that there are concerns with the bust rate of KPF. Hollands’ knee was a concern of such a high pick.

Clayton has talked about Phillips’ leadership. You might take a slightly less natural talent for a good cultural fit.
 

Uber Roo

Club Legend
Jun 20, 2018
1,268
3,963
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Hi Soupp,
Any chance the Crows are playing funny games here and told Horne ( and Panthers to some degree) to pull the handbrake?
From what I’ve read he’s mainly played HB, is he spending enough time in the middle?
Probably a wild conspiracy theory but is it possible they’re trying to lower his draft ranking?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

the flying ham

Premiership Player
Dec 12, 2006
4,442
8,786
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I just wanted to throw some of my thoughts into here for those that enjoy reading draft-related thoughts and content.

I think recruiters may be having some slight concerns around Horne's season. He's shown plenty of glimpses but is yet to have really elevated his game over the course of the SANFL season. That's not to say his performances haven't improved over the course of the season - they have - but only marginally.

The worry is something I've mentioned in the past, and that is that there's a very real chance he was an early bloomer who dominated his peers due to his size, strength and confidence in his body. I do feel like there's a group closing in on him, mostly due to their significant improvements over this year along with their higher ceilings due to rate of improvement in recent times, height/weight, athletic traits, positional versatility etc.

Guys who are closing in or have a higher potential from my POV are Callaghan, Goater, Gibcus and Erasmus.

I really like Mac Andrew and Wilmot too (both currently in my top 10 along with guys listed above) but I don't think they've got a bigger ceiling than Horne.

I'd still take Horne at #1, but the gap has closed as the year has progressed.
Would you trade 1 for 2 cracks at it in the top 10 souuppy

Edit dont answer that, you already have
On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

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