Player Watch 2021 AFL National Draft - NOT FOR TRADE DISCUSSION

[Strapping Young Lad]

Let’s stick with a basic rule for this thread, that it’s for draft watch and discussion only.

It’s not for trade hypotheticals, who you think needs to be delisted or traded, how many games you think we will win, some other team will win, how many picks you want in the 1st round or discussion of current HFC players.

It’s about youngsters who are eligible for the draft in 2021.


Key dates to look out for:

• NAB AFL Draft Combine: TBC
• NAB AFL Draft: Wednesday November 24 - Thursday November 25
• NAB AFL Pre-season and Rookie Drafts: Friday November 26

 

[chopflop]

I haven't seen any more than the Metro vs Country game aside from just highlights.
But Wards 'pokey' generally looks more controlled and his kicking is viewed as a strength.
His game sense and ability to get to the right positions stood out for me as well. When you combine those traits with good skills and good decision making you have a serious player on your hands.

Also don't think speed is an issue for him. Values his ability to perform repeat efforts and as we have seen with Dylan Moore, that is an X-factor in its own right.

I think I'll watch the challenge game again and watch him closely.

 

[rei154]

Yeh maybe a quicker first few steps. I didn't mean in output atm. Phillips the better player now. But what does ward have that he doesn't traits wise. That's where I am worried

Yeah sure!

I suppose from what I can tell I would say there are a couple key differences:
From the reports, Ward's consistency of ball use is a massive tick, whereas I think Phillips' ability probably fluctuates more- it seems like his decision making is another thing that is constantly being pointed out as super valuable.

Will be interesting to see where he goes from here, I can definitely see him eclipsing Phillips.

 

[Bardo State]

No one accepted my challenge a few pages back to convince me Ward isn't a Tom Phillips at AFL level?

I liked ward but then thought about the fact he is a slowish, gut running, left footed mid/wing with a pokey kick, who is hard at the footy and can kick a goal. Maybe ward has better stoppage work but he isn't exactly a clearance machine.

Can anyone allay my fears and tell why he will be so much better? Maybe someone who has seen a bit of him?

Butler over sonsie for me at 21.

Sonsie is a massive ball watching mid with little to no defensive intent or run. Don't rate

I think you might be overstating the case with Ward. His decision making in tight is very good along with very clean hands. Rarely misses targets. Phillips seems to need his decisions to be pretty straightforward to consistently hit targets and isn't as clean or smart in a contest, despite being better than most wingmen.

Just because he's an average sized inside/outside endurance mid doesn't mean he's Tom Phillips. It might be fair to say his floor could be Tom Phillips (who will still probably be a 150/200+ game player) if he doesn't adjust to the pace. But I'd say it's equally fair to say his ceiling is Sam Walsh or Marc Murphy. No player is a sure thing before they're drafted.

He also captained the Vic metro side that had plenty of good centre bounce mids. Plus being one of the best performed midfielders in the country across his junior year already puts some distance between him and Phillips, who was a decent junior player that went at 58. Captain of the NAB league team of the year, second in Knights B&F despite playing 5 of 9 games etc.

Also, he's one of the types that Hawthorn is lacking in the midfield. He has been solid defensively, shows class in congestion and doesn't struggle to impact when he isn't hunting the ball. He has shown a good sense of where to be to get the second/third possession while on the move and find the next teammate. Contrast that with the number of times our centre square players recieved a handball while stationary and ended up hacking it or getting caught.

 

[nelk boys]

Notes on Elijah Tsatas: Potential pick 1 2022


Height: 186cm


- Explosive pace away from the congestion
- Elite hands in close, dances around opponents
- Great agility to duck and weave through the contest, especially using his long arms to create space to give handballs away
- Get's around the ground well
- Relies on smarts and athleticism purely
- Late birthday in October, tells that he could grow more and develop even further
- Very skinny, indicates future growth in that department
- Reads the tap off the ruck superbly.

 

[TDS7]

No one accepted my challenge a few pages back to convince me Ward isn't a Tom Phillips at AFL level?

I liked ward but then thought about the fact he is a slowish, gut running, left footed mid/wing with a pokey kick, who is hard at the footy and can kick a goal. Maybe ward has better stoppage work but he isn't exactly a clearance machine.

Can anyone allay my fears and tell why he will be so much better? Maybe someone who has seen a bit of him?

Butler over sonsie for me at 21.

Sonsie is a massive ball watching mid with little to no defensive intent or run. Don't rate

It must have flown over my head earlier, sorry about that.


The first major difference is the speed. Ward has more burst speed to go with his endurance, where Phillips is a marathon runner and nothing else. Ward's disposal and defensive pressure are major points of difference as well. Phillips tackles decently, but Ward is more willing a tackler and puts in a lot of work in both directions. The disposals they get are also completely different. Ward has in the top 5 for clearances, inside 50s and score involvements, and top 10 for contested possessions in the NAB league where Phillips is sub-par in all categories. This comes down to positioning and game sense, where Phillips hangs around the back and outside Ward moves the ball forward with his possessions. Ward is also an inside midfielder, he's the outlet that TOM, JOM, and Worps need to get it out from the stoppages. We never really saw Phillips playing that role, his burst speed is a lot slower and he just doesn't have the feel for the contested ball. Again, on the surface, they are similar players but the roles they play are rather different.

 

[TDS7]

Notes on Elijah Tsatas: Potential pick 1 2022


Height: 186cm


- Explosive pace away from the congestion
- Elite hands in close, dances around opponents
- Great agility to duck and weave through the contest, especially using his long arms to create space to give handballs away
- Get's around the ground well
- Relies on smarts and athleticism purely
- Late birthday in October, tells that he could grow more and develop even further
- Very skinny, indicates future growth in that department
- Reads the tap off the ruck superbly.

ET is the biggest reason I can give for not trading our future 1st. He and Hollands are the only two I would seriously consider over one of the top 6 or 7 this year, the knock on their development is too big for me to like. We'll see what happens with next year's NAB league, but I would be very happy if we end up with one of them. Unfortunately, it seems like we'll have to be very, very bad to get that low and I can't see us being worse than any of the teams below us this year.

 

[chopflop]

It must have flown over my head earlier, sorry about that.


The first major difference is the speed. Ward has more burst speed to go with his endurance, where Phillips is a marathon runner and nothing else. Ward's disposal and defensive pressure are major points of difference as well. Phillips tackles decently, but Ward is more willing a tackler and puts in a lot of work in both directions. The disposals they get are also completely different. Ward has in the top 5 for clearances, inside 50s and score involvements, and top 10 for contested possessions in the NAB league where Phillips is sub-par in all categories. This comes down to positioning and game sense, where Phillips hangs around the back and outside Ward moves the ball forward with his possessions. Ward is also an inside midfielder, he's the outlet that TOM, JOM, and Worps need to get it out from the stoppages. We never really saw Phillips playing that role, his burst speed is a lot slower and he just doesn't have the feel for the contested ball. Again, on the surface, they are similar players but the roles they play are rather different.

Good analysis. I'm definitely going to watch the challenge match again as my homework. The read I am getting from responses is about his work at the contest is more effective and far more damaging. Phillips does the hack over the head kick as his 1 wood

 

[Davo-27]

Notes on Elijah Tsatas: Potential pick 1 2022


Height: 186cm


- Explosive pace away from the congestion
- Elite hands in close, dances around opponents
- Great agility to duck and weave through the contest, especially using his long arms to create space to give handballs away
- Get's around the ground well
- Relies on smarts and athleticism purely
- Late birthday in October, tells that he could grow more and develop even further
- Very skinny, indicates future growth in that department
- Reads the tap off the ruck superbly.

he is one of the best kicks in next years draft too, definitely top 5 prospect atm from my PoV, i think he is edps' favourite atm, just like Sonsie and Sinn were his favourites heading into this year.

 

[danielG]

ET is the biggest reason I can give for not trading our future 1st. He and Hollands are the only two I would seriously consider over one of the top 6 or 7 this year, the knock on their development is too big for me to like. We'll see what happens with next year's NAB league, but I would be very happy if we end up with one of them. Unfortunately, it seems like we'll have to be very, very bad to get that low and I can't see us being worse than any of the teams below us this year.

There will be a few teams improving in that bottom bracket. North will surely have a better win/ loss record. Adelaide has improved their list. GC would be praying they are a lot better. Magpies would have to be better with less injuries. Will be competitive at the bottom. I'm not sure who we're climbing above loads of teams, but I am enthused by what Mitch will bring as coach and Sic returning helps immeasurably. WCE and Cats might begin the decline.
Tsatas looks like a great talent, hopefully he grows a couple of inches to become an even bigger weapon.
Is Will Ashcroft another potential No1 or do you rate Tsatas & Hollands above him ?

 

[nelk boys]

he is one of the best kicks in next years draft too, definitely top 5 prospect atm from my PoV, i think he is edps' favourite atm, just like Sonsie and Sinn were his favourites heading into this year.

He looks a great clearance player, in congestion. Really uses a balance between athleticism, explosiveness and smarts, plus he has not filled out, late birthday, good size already.

How would you compare Tsatas vs Horne?

 

[Davo-27]

He looks a great clearance player, in congestion. Really uses a balance between athleticism, explosiveness and smarts, plus he has not filled out, late birthday, good size already.

How would you compare Tsatas vs Horne?

very different players, Wardlaw would be more like Horne-Francis, Tsatas is a better Sinn, comparable to Callaghan in this draft, that type that is a weapon on the outside and can play inside, from what i have seen.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

No one accepted my challenge a few pages back to convince me Ward isn't a Tom Phillips at AFL level?

I liked ward but then thought about the fact he is a slowish, gut running, left footed mid/wing with a pokey kick, who is hard at the footy and can kick a goal. Maybe ward has better stoppage work but he isn't exactly a clearance machine.

Can anyone allay my fears and tell why he will be so much better? Maybe someone who has seen a bit of him?

Butler over sonsie for me at 21.

Sonsie is a massive ball watching mid with little to no defensive intent or run. Don't rate

Ok, here's a start...

Tom Phillips was overlooked altogether in his draft year and picked 58th the following season. By all the recruiting experts, Ward is rated as one of the top 5-10 kids in the land. That should already give a comparative example of their relative talent and quality at the same age.

You also mentioned hard at the footy yourself, which is not one of Phillips strengths at all.

The two other key differences are: Ward has the ability to play inside and dominate as well. Phillips has not shown that whatsoever.

Ward is also a good user, with accurate left foot kicking at all distances. Phillips ball use has always been questioned.

In fact, here is a quote regarding who the Eagles should select with their pick 55 back in the day (when Tom was an over ager):

"Phillips is a 19-year old who can impact a game in just about any position. He wins enough of the football as a midfielder, can plug the hole in defence and he’s a spark when he heads up forward. The issue with Phillips is his ball use, but at this stage of the draft, he offers real value."

 

[nelk boys]

very different players, Wardlaw would be more like Horne-Francis, Tsatas is a better Sinn, comparable to Callaghan in this draft, that type that is a weapon on the outside and can play inside, from what i have seen.

Interesting, I thought Tsatas was a lot more better on the inside than outside, given his clean hands and evasion in congestion, as his main weapons, his explosiveness a weapon.

If we had pick 1 and 2 then next year, would you be picking Tsatas and Wardlaw to complete our midfield?

 

[PMBangers]

Interesting, I thought Tsatas was a lot more better on the inside than outside, given his clean hands and evasion in congestion, as his main weapons, his explosiveness a weapon.

If we had pick 1 and 2 then next year, would you be picking Tsatas and Wardlaw to complete our midfield?

Tsatas played almost exclusively wing in the Metro v Country 17s games tbf, think thats what most people have been exposed to

 

[TDS7]

There will be a few teams improving in that bottom bracket. North will surely have a better win/ loss record. Adelaide has improved their list. GC would be praying they are a lot better. Magpies would have to be better with less injuries. Will be competitive at the bottom. I'm not sure who we're climbing above loads of teams, but I am enthused by what Mitch will bring as coach and Sic returning helps immeasurably. WCE and Cats might begin the decline.
Tsatas looks like a great talent, hopefully he grows a couple of inches to become an even bigger weapon.
Is Will Ashcroft another potential No1 or do you rate Tsatas & Hollands above him ?

Ashcroft I haven't seen a ton of but I put him in that tier. There are a few around the mark, Kobe Ryan and Wardlaw come to mind. There are a few talks I like as well, but I've been locked into mids a bit more heavily. My ranking right now might be:

Tsatas
Hollands
Ashcroft
Wardlaw
Condon
Ryan
Keeler
Sheezel
Lemmey
Hewett

 

[Davo-27]

Tsatas played almost exclusively wing in the Metro v Country 17s games tbf, think thats what most people have been exposed to

Vic Metro(state games) is where it matters most for me, beating a kid who will never get drafted V's actual competition means more imo.

 

[MasterSamurai]

Gee, I have to watch Ward again to analyse, didn't remind me of Phillips at ALL!! more like a cross between early cotchin and Murphy!

 

[chopflop]

Gee, I have to watch Ward again to analyse, didn't remind me of Phillips at ALL!! more like a cross between early cotchin and Murphy!

I was the only one who saw it and it was a surface-level analysis. Basically going of his key bankable AFL traits (which seems to be his running power) and that his pokey kicking action reminded me of Phillips. So I was playing a little bit of devil's advocate to tease out what people see as his ceiling/floor.

I said the same thing in the draft thread last year.... it was always important to remember the number of non-AFL standard players who are still taken in the top 10.

Surface level - (all similar draft positions)
Hobbs is Nathan Freeman to Joel Selwood or maybe something in the middle.
Josh Sinn is Jaspar Pittard to Isaac Smith or maybe something in the middle

Here are some recent top 10's -

2017 - O'Brien, Dow and Coffield look like misses here.



2016 - SPS, Ainsworth, Setterfield, Bowes, Brodie, Logue



2015 - Francis, Weideman, Schace, Some random Gold Coast player? AhCHee?



2014 - Cockatoo, Picket???, Marchbank??? Some random GWS bloke?? McCartin




Anyway, you all get the idea. I guess what I am saying is, trying to only pick the strengths of the players might get you to overlook what might make them a non-afl standard player. So in a sense, analaysings the 'risks' of each player as well as the potential upside.

That was my logic of asking, why isn't Josh Ward just another hard running, okish kicking wingman like Tom Phillips.

 

[eDPS]

Interesting, I thought Tsatas was a lot more better on the inside than outside, given his clean hands and evasion in congestion, as his main weapons, his explosiveness a weapon.

If we had pick 1 and 2 then next year, would you be picking Tsatas and Wardlaw to complete our midfield?

Did his collarbone in that very video you posted and only just started playing again when the 17s champs started so obviously would be left on the wing to allow the stronger bodies Wardlaw and Ashcroft cop the heavy contact. I’d expect to see Tsatas as a starting on baller for Oakleigh next year

 

[MasterSamurai]

I was the only one who saw it and it was a surface-level analysis. Basically going of his key bankable AFL traits (which seems to be his running power) and that his pokey kicking action reminded me of Phillips. So I was playing a little bit of devil's advocate to tease out what people see as his ceiling/floor.

I said the same thing in the draft thread last year.... it was always important to remember the number of non-AFL standard players who are still taken in the top 10.

Surface level - (all similar draft positions)
Hobbs is Nathan Freeman to Joel Selwood or maybe something in the middle.
Josh Sinn is Jaspar Pittard to Isaac Smith or maybe something in the middle

Here are some recent top 10's -

2017 - O'Brien, Dow and Coffield look like misses here.

View attachment 1260427

2016 - SPS, Ainsworth, Setterfield, Bowes, Brodie, Logue

View attachment 1260432

2015 - Francis, Weideman, Schace, Some random Gold Coast player? AhCHee?

View attachment 1260437

2014 - Cockatoo, Picket???, Marchbank??? Some random GWS bloke?? McCartin

View attachment 1260435


Anyway, you all get the idea. I guess what I am saying is, trying to only pick the strengths of the players might get you to overlook what might make them a non-afl standard player. So in a sense, analaysings the 'risks' of each player as well as the potential upside.

That was my logic of asking, why isn't Josh Ward just another hard running, okish kicking wingman like Tom Phillips.

Man, GC and Carlton are absolute career killers of young men needing guidance and development in the AFL landscape. There's some forgotten names/rubbish in that lot.
Those clubs had multiple swings (along with GWS ) whereas the HFC won't. We , I believe, will be a lot more stringent and careful about our top end selections going Frwd .

 

[SuperSic]

Very surprised at the lack of love for Mac Andrew in here. If Callaghan is gone at our pick then Andrew is the one for me, might not be the midfielder we're looking for but his upside is insane and we just need some superstarts right now. Sounds like there's plenty of mids still likely to be around at our later picks too.

 

[danielG]

Very surprised at the lack of love for Mac Andrew in here. If Callaghan is gone at our pick then Andrew is the one for me, might not be the midfielder we're looking for but his upside is insane and we just need some superstarts right now. Sounds like there's plenty of mids still likely to be around at our later picks too.

Had love from me from day one. If we weren’t in such desperate need for classy mids I’d say go Andrew as soon as Callaghan is off the board. I think the fact we just picked a ruck in the draft tells you we’re looking elsewhere would be my read.I love Macs ceiling, could be anything..

 

[SunshineHawkCal]

Anyone seen Zac Taylor play?

 

[sohsam]

Anyone seen Zac Taylor play?

That would be interesting to know, as from all accounts, plays similar to Ward, has the footy smarts, good kicking skills and can find the footy. However, only expected to go Pick 25 or so.

 

[sohsam]

I was the only one who saw it and it was a surface-level analysis. Basically going of his key bankable AFL traits (which seems to be his running power) and that his pokey kicking action reminded me of Phillips. So I was playing a little bit of devil's advocate to tease out what people see as his ceiling/floor.

I said the same thing in the draft thread last year.... it was always important to remember the number of non-AFL standard players who are still taken in the top 10.

Surface level - (all similar draft positions)
Hobbs is Nathan Freeman to Joel Selwood or maybe something in the middle.
Josh Sinn is Jaspar Pittard to Isaac Smith or maybe something in the middle

Here are some recent top 10's -

2017 - O'Brien, Dow and Coffield look like misses here.

View attachment 1260427

2016 - SPS, Ainsworth, Setterfield, Bowes, Brodie, Logue

View attachment 1260432

2015 - Francis, Weideman, Schace, Some random Gold Coast player? AhCHee?

View attachment 1260437

2014 - Cockatoo, Picket???, Marchbank??? Some random GWS bloke?? McCartin

View attachment 1260435


Anyway, you all get the idea. I guess what I am saying is, trying to only pick the strengths of the players might get you to overlook what might make them a non-afl standard player. So in a sense, analaysings the 'risks' of each player as well as the potential upside.

That was my logic of asking, why isn't Josh Ward just another hard running, okish kicking wingman like Tom Phillips.

On another point, how sad would you be if you were one of those clubs that pinned your homes on Top 10 and 3 or 4 out of 10 regularly don't make it. I know some here say most of those that have won premierships have built up with top 10 picks first, if that is the case, will be a long road. Still think there is argument for breaking up a pick, especially if done homework, can pick up multiple good players, anyway there are always those that cannot wait 5-8 years for a rebuild, that need the patience if it is the only way.