Preview 2021 AFL National Draft - Please Read: GWS have Collingwood 1st pick

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speedy

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 5, 2001
5,019
2,641
Melbourne, VIC
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Hi Soupp,
Any chance the Crows are playing funny games here and told Horne ( and Panthers to some degree) to pull the handbrake?
From what I’ve read he’s mainly played HB, is he spending enough time in the middle?
Probably a wild conspiracy theory but is it possible they’re trying to lower his draft ranking?


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I'd be more surprised if that wasn't happening.
 

Harpergun

Debutant
Mar 7, 2012
128
510
Gold Coast
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I just wanted to throw some of my thoughts into here for those that enjoy reading draft-related thoughts and content.

I think recruiters may be having some slight concerns around Horne's season. He's shown plenty of glimpses but is yet to have really elevated his game over the course of the SANFL season. That's not to say his performances haven't improved over the course of the season - they have - but only marginally.

The worry is something I've mentioned in the past, and that is that there's a very real chance he was an early bloomer who dominated his peers due to his size, strength and confidence in his body. I do feel like there's a group closing in on him, mostly due to their significant improvements over this year along with their higher ceilings due to rate of improvement in recent times, height/weight, athletic traits, positional versatility etc.

Guys who are closing in or have a higher potential from my POV are Callaghan, Goater, Gibcus and Erasmus.

I really like Mac Andrew and Wilmot too (both currently in my top 10 along with guys listed above) but I don't think they've got a bigger ceiling than Horne.

I'd still take Horne at #1, but the gap has closed as the year has progressed.
First off, appreciate your thoughts and insights on all things draft related.

Just a couple of thoughts on this. Please note I dont watch under age football, my basis of what I am about to write is off watching draftees entering the league closely over the last 20 years

Horne has been playing senors in the SANFL for 2 years now and last year played above maybe what was expected against men after dominating against players in his own age group. This second year, possible plateaued a little but still show small improvements in certain areas

Top players in the under 18s like Daicos, Sinn, Callaghan etc have generally only been playing against players in the same age group ( a couple have played the odd VFL game or the rep game against the Geelong VFL team ).

So when a draftee first enters the AFL and plays their first season, some really shine, Powell for an example and some show glimpses of what they may become, Phillips would be my example of this. This is their first season and sometimes first time playing against men that are bigger, stronger, faster and fitter than them.

Everyone is hyped on the new shiny toy heading into their second year expecting that growth and improvement to continue. Then what happens to a large majority of these players in the second year? They plateau or sometimes may even go backwards slightly. Second year blues are a common thing among younger players. Dont get me wrong, some excel and continue that upward path, some just take an extra year or 2 ( TT, LDU and Simpkin come to mind ).

Is it possible that this is what has happened to Horne? Due to already experiencing the second year blues this year, when he does join the league next year, he is further developed against more seasoned opponents, and because of this, does he skip the second year blues in a couple of years time and his rate of improvement comes faster than others?

I may have stuffed up trying to explain this, in my head I know what I am trying to say so hopefully others pick up on what I am trying to put down.
 

CarnTheKANGAS

Team Captain
Aug 30, 2011
414
377
Earth
AFL Club
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Souup
Plenty are getting hung up on Horne the pure midfielder (which I think we've near sorted) he seems like Dusty mk II.

Do you see him him as a mid who pushes forward for the bulk of games.

Im thinking the massive appeal is him he playing as a smaller Carey? A CHF who starts in the square..
Do you think he fits this bill?
 

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shinboner magic

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 17, 2007
16,249
21,473
melb home of the kangas
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North Melbourne
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I just wanted to throw some of my thoughts into here for those that enjoy reading draft-related thoughts and content.

I think recruiters may be having some slight concerns around Horne's season. He's shown plenty of glimpses but is yet to have really elevated his game over the course of the SANFL season. That's not to say his performances haven't improved over the course of the season - they have - but only marginally.

The worry is something I've mentioned in the past, and that is that there's a very real chance he was an early bloomer who dominated his peers due to his size, strength and confidence in his body. I do feel like there's a group closing in on him, mostly due to their significant improvements over this year along with their higher ceilings due to rate of improvement in recent times, height/weight, athletic traits, positional versatility etc.

Guys who are closing in or have a higher potential from my POV are Callaghan, Goater, Gibcus and Erasmus.

I really like Mac Andrew and Wilmot too (both currently in my top 10 along with guys listed above) but I don't think they've got a bigger ceiling than Horne.

I'd still take Horne at #1, but the gap has closed as the year has progressed.
Appreciate your thoughts as always.
You go against the grain of the likely top 10 and seem to be bang on the money. Gibus and goater look like are this years bolters you have liked.
Do you have an idea on how strong next years crop is and is it mids or kpp.
Pick 1 would require a massive haul, I mean seriously big. So much so I’d doubt a club would do it, I think the only two clubs that might would be Adelaide or Port, but they’d have to pay big


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If crows finish 17th - they up their offer to froggy so we get compo after pick 1.
We then trade pick 1 for pick 2 and their 2022 first rounder.
So in pick 2,3 (2021) and crows 2022 first rounder
Out pick 1 (2021) and froggy
 

AnEmptyChair

Club Legend
Nov 12, 2020
1,376
5,051
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Just imagine for a moment that we finish bottom but our draft board reads 1. Callaghan/Goater/Gibcus/Other, 2. Horne. We could walk out of the draft period with a king's ******* ransom from Adelaide for a player we would have taken anyway.
 

Le Grille

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 14, 2005
14,142
24,568
Perth
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Appreciate your thoughts as always.
You go against the grain of the likely top 10 and seem to be bang on the money. Gibus and goater look like are this years bolters you have liked.
Do you have an idea on how strong next years crop is and is it mids or kpp.


If crows finish 17th - they up their offer to froggy so we get compo after pick 1.
We then trade pick 1 for pick 2 and their 2022 first rounder.
So in pick 2,3 (2021) and crows 2022 first rounder
Out pick 1 (2021) and froggy
Pretty reasonable
 

Souup

Norm Smith Medallist
May 8, 2005
6,243
7,499
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Hi Soupp,
Any chance the Crows are playing funny games here and told Horne ( and Panthers to some degree) to pull the handbrake?
From what I’ve read he’s mainly played HB, is he spending enough time in the middle?
Probably a wild conspiracy theory but is it possible they’re trying to lower his draft ranking?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Not sure where you heard that he was playing off half back! He's been playing a ~70/30 forward/mid split this year.
 

Souup

Norm Smith Medallist
May 8, 2005
6,243
7,499
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Anyone know horne’s 2020 sanfl average disposals? Can’t seem to find it.
15 disposals (8 contested), 4 marks, 4 tackles, 2.6 clearances and 0.6 goals a game. 83 rankings points per game (13 games)

He averaged the following in the SANFL seniors last year

10 disposals (7 contested), 2 marks, 3 tackles, 1.3 clearances and 0.6 goals a game. 59 rankings points per game (9 games)

Reflecting on these does show that he has improved, but it needs to be taken into account that he's played more midfield this year than last year. There probably is a sense in which I've been expecting too much from Horne, as his flashes have been amazing, as you've all seen through his highlights.

He's still #1, and there's still a fair bit of distance there from the rest of the pack, but I'd love to see him tear the champs to shreds or have a 20+ touch, 2 goal game.
 

Shinboner1

Club Legend
Aug 13, 2020
2,450
3,832
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Appreciate your thoughts as always.
You go against the grain of the likely top 10 and seem to be bang on the money. Gibus and goater look like are this years bolters you have liked.
Do you have an idea on how strong next years crop is and is it mids or kpp.


If crows finish 17th - they up their offer to froggy so we get compo after pick 1.
We then trade pick 1 for pick 2 and their 2022 first rounder.
So in pick 2,3 (2021) and crows 2022 first rounder
Out pick 1 (2021) and froggy
that deal would probably set the club up for the finished rebuild.
grab callahan and a key defender like goater.
 
Last edited:

Boristown

Premiership Player
May 24, 2015
4,006
9,793
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Not sure where you heard that he was playing off half back! He's been playing a ~70/30 forward/mid split this year.
How do you rate the father son prospects (Daicos/Darcy)? Are they genuine top 3 types or is it more hype based on surname?
 

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the big lebowski

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 4, 2006
10,910
19,471
The hood
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15 disposals (8 contested), 4 marks, 4 tackles, 2.6 clearances and 0.6 goals a game. 83 rankings points per game (13 games)

He averaged the following in the SANFL seniors last year

10 disposals (7 contested), 2 marks, 3 tackles, 1.3 clearances and 0.6 goals a game. 59 rankings points per game (9 games)

Reflecting on these does show that he has improved, but it needs to be taken into account that he's played more midfield this year than last year. There probably is a sense in which I've been expecting too much from Horne, as his flashes have been amazing, as you've all seen through his highlights.

He's still #1, and there's still a fair bit of distance there from the rest of the pack, but I'd love to see him tear the champs to shreds or have a 20+ touch, 2 goal game.
Thankyou Sir.

This was what a I expected, a 30-50% improvement in stats. I think that’s pretty reasonable.

Another good point of comparison is first and second year afl players in the sanfl. Luke Pedlar for example is averaging 13 disposals at sanfl level this year. Lachlan Jones just the one game at 14 possessions. Not sure if there are any others that are appropriate comparisons.

Also, I think soemthing that gets forgotten, probably because of the manic way in which Horne plays, he’s 78 kgs. Needs another 10 kgs before he can do what he wants to physically, let alone getting fitter.

If you said Horne numbers would improve by another 50% for next season in the sanfl, all of a sudden he’s getting 22-23 touches per game.
 

Souup

Norm Smith Medallist
May 8, 2005
6,243
7,499
AFL Club
North Melbourne
How do you rate the father son prospects (Daicos/Darcy)? Are they genuine top 3 types or is it more hype based on surname?
I think Daicos is unfairly criticised for being slightly more outside. You need a mix at AFL level and there's nothing wrong with him being smart enough to know his role and ensure he's there to receive on the outside. He's got great footy IQ and hits the scoreboard regularly.

My 2 main criticism's - he's a defensive liability and his kicking isn't great for a guy whose contested/uncontested possessions sit at 1/3. His kicking efficiency this year sits just a tick over 50%. If you're winning a lot of ball under little pressure, your kicking efficiency shouldn't be much below 60%.

Is he the next best player after Horne? Not sure. He's part of the next group for me alongside guys like Callaghan, Gibcus, Goater etc.

I think Sam Darcy is definitely entrenched a top 10 prospect - this idea that he's a top 3 lock seems a bit much for me at this stage. He's great athletically and shown he can play both forward and back. Much of the hype around him has been based off 2 games - a 21 touch game against the Jets in round 4 playing as a defender (the Jets have no impressive key forwards), and his 6 goals in the trial game. His glimpses have been great, but need to see more consistency from him.
 

Rainsparks

Debutant
Feb 8, 2019
111
45
AFL Club
Collingwood
I just wanted to throw some of my thoughts into here for those that enjoy reading draft-related thoughts and content.

I think recruiters may be having some slight concerns around Horne's season. He's shown plenty of glimpses but is yet to have really elevated his game over the course of the SANFL season. That's not to say his performances haven't improved over the course of the season - they have - but only marginally.

The worry is something I've mentioned in the past, and that is that there's a very real chance he was an early bloomer who dominated his peers due to his size, strength and confidence in his body. I do feel like there's a group closing in on him, mostly due to their significant improvements over this year along with their higher ceilings due to rate of improvement in recent times, height/weight, athletic traits, positional versatility etc.

Guys who are closing in or have a higher potential from my POV are Callaghan, Goater, Gibcus and Erasmus.

I really like Mac Andrew and Wilmot too (both currently in my top 10 along with guys listed above) but I don't think they've got a bigger ceiling than Horne.

I'd still take Horne at #1, but the gap has closed as the year has progressed.
Dose seem the early bloomers have an advantage,but then you look at some of the best players like Petracca ,Dangerfield, Cunnington and Martin all had size and strength at a young age.
 

AnEmptyChair

Club Legend
Nov 12, 2020
1,376
5,051
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I think Daicos is unfairly criticised for being slightly more outside. You need a mix at AFL level and there's nothing wrong with him being smart enough to know his role and ensure he's there to receive on the outside. He's got great footy IQ and hits the scoreboard regularly.

My 2 main criticism's - he's a defensive liability and his kicking isn't great for a guy whose contested/uncontested possessions sit at 1/3. His kicking efficiency this year sits just a tick over 50%. If you're winning a lot of ball under little pressure, your kicking efficiency shouldn't be much below 60%.

Is he the next best player after Horne? Not sure. He's part of the next group for me alongside guys like Callaghan, Gibcus, Goater etc.

I think Sam Darcy is definitely entrenched a top 10 prospect - this idea that he's a top 3 lock seems a bit much for me at this stage. He's great athletically and shown he can play both forward and back. Much of the hype around him has been based off 2 games - a 21 touch game against the Jets in round 4 playing as a defender (the Jets have no impressive key forwards), and his 6 goals in the trial game. His glimpses have been great, but need to see more consistency from him.
Hey, mate, just out of interest, and of course you don't have to go into specifics, but am I right in remembering that you actually work in the industry? In your opinion, is much of what you've been posting opinions shared by a majority of recruiters? Just trying to get an insight into where your takes sit in the sort of bigger context, if that makes sense.
 

the flying ham

Premiership Player
Dec 12, 2006
3,875
7,579
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Dose seem the early bloomers have an advantage,but then you look at some of the best players like Petracca ,Dangerfield, Cunnington and Martin all had size and strength at a young age.
All of which did struggle a little in their first few seasons playing against the bigger bodies. I think LDU falls into this category also. Takes time to continue to develop that build to hold up against men

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Sphynx

Club Legend
Jul 10, 2011
1,878
3,947
AFL Club
North Melbourne
He's still #1, and there's still a fair bit of distance there from the rest of the pack, but I'd love to see him tear the champs to shreds or have a 20+ touch, 2 goal game.

I've stated this quite a bit.

If the Champs do go ahead and Horne has a subpar tournament, then the recruiters will have a decision to make.

It's important he averages 20+ a game in those games.
 

The acurate one

Premiership Player
Jan 23, 2019
4,340
18,648
AFL Club
North Melbourne
We'd be pretty tempted by that imo.

Horne is amazing, but the prospect of a Callaghan/Goater and 1 x top 5 pick in 2022 + our 2022 first rounder will be enticing.

Would give us a lot of flexibility at the draft and trade table to fill in gaps in the list build.

As we've seen in the last month, Horne is going to be a luxury for this midfield, not necessarily a necessity for it to be successful.

Remembering both Cunnington and Powell are coming back into it and Phillips will be 100% better next year after an AFL pre-season.

If we get Kelly as well...... You could argue the club may seriously look at that. Remembering they tried to trade down last year also, so it's something that they aren't against in principle.
Reckon we'd happily have mid rotations of; Cunners, Anderson, Phillips, Powell, Kelly, LDU, TT, Stephenson, Horne and whoever else has the capability of playing in the middle. Unrelenting is what we want. They will rest forward or back.

You control the skies you control the war, you control the midfield....
 

Souup

Norm Smith Medallist
May 8, 2005
6,243
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AFL Club
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Hey, mate, just out of interest, and of course you don't have to go into specifics, but am I right in remembering that you actually work in the industry? In your opinion, is much of what you've been posting opinions shared by a majority of recruiters? Just trying to get an insight into where your takes sit in the sort of bigger context, if that makes sense.
Yeah that's right.

Recruiting to an extent is a subjective thing, particularly when you try to predict potential or scope for development. But generally, the later the picks, the more varied the opinions.

For example:
Recruiter A has Horne #1, Andrew #18 and Paul Curtis #25

Recruiter B has Horne #4, Andrew #8 and Paul Curtis undrafted/rookie.

Recruiter C has Horne #2, Andrew #22 and Paul Curtis #45
 

Kangaroos4eva

Premium Platinum
Aug 22, 2012
44,267
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QLD
AFL Club
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I just wanted to throw some of my thoughts into here for those that enjoy reading draft-related thoughts and content.

I think recruiters may be having some slight concerns around Horne's season. He's shown plenty of glimpses but is yet to have really elevated his game over the course of the SANFL season. That's not to say his performances haven't improved over the course of the season - they have - but only marginally.

The worry is something I've mentioned in the past, and that is that there's a very real chance he was an early bloomer who dominated his peers due to his size, strength and confidence in his body. I do feel like there's a group closing in on him, mostly due to their significant improvements over this year along with their higher ceilings due to rate of improvement in recent times, height/weight, athletic traits, positional versatility etc.

Guys who are closing in or have a higher potential from my POV are Callaghan, Goater, Gibcus and Erasmus.

I really like Mac Andrew and Wilmot too (both currently in my top 10 along with guys listed above) but I don't think they've got a bigger ceiling than Horne.

I'd still take Horne at #1, but the gap has closed as the year has progressed.
What are your thoughts on Goater and Erasmus? I know you’ve commented on Gibcus before and he sounds good, without me actually watching him live of course.
 

Tas

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Dec 23, 2002
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There can be only one...
There’s been nothing specific said, but you listen to/ read interviews and you pick up that there are concerns with the bust rate of KPF. Hollands’ knee was a concern of such a high pick.

Clayton has talked about Phillips’ leadership. You might take a slightly less natural talent for a good cultural fit.
The knee was definitely a concern. For me the bigger concern was the lack of midfield time, I wouldn't want to invest heavily in someone that was only a flanker. Bit of a difference investing a later first round pick on say Simpkin with the hope he could transition into the midfield and doing so with pick 2.

I've always been consistent with the belief that you should ALWAYS take the best mid with an early draft pick unless you have the expectation you are going to be down there for 5-7 years with top 5 picks. Most of the top ruckman going around are recycled, many of them originally drafted way out of the first round. We got mileage out of Ben Brown as a later pick, Larkey is doing well, you can get some really serviceable forwards if you are prepared to put the development time into them but if you have a midfield full of low-skill plodders you aren't going to get anywhere. There are some really good forwards and rucks taken in the first round, there is an absurdly high failure rate though. We just can't afford to blow potential marquee players because we will develop the second tier well enough to be competitive, so our window for finding marquee players in the draft I would imagine is fairly limited.
 

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