Preview 2021 AFL National Draft - Please Read: GWS have Collingwood 1st pick

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Liam Boy

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 12, 2008
5,222
7,456
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
The knee was definitely a concern. For me the bigger concern was the lack of midfield time, I wouldn't want to invest heavily in someone that was only a flanker. Bit of a difference investing a later first round pick on say Simpkin with the hope he could transition into the midfield and doing so with pick 2.

I've always been consistent with the belief that you should ALWAYS take the best mid with an early draft pick unless you have the expectation you are going to be down there for 5-7 years with top 5 picks. Most of the top ruckman going around are recycled, many of them originally drafted way out of the first round. We got mileage out of Ben Brown as a later pick, Larkey is doing well, you can get some really serviceable forwards if you are prepared to put the development time into them but if you have a midfield full of low-skill plodders you aren't going to get anywhere. There are some really good forwards and rucks taken in the first round, there is an absurdly high failure rate though. We just can't afford to blow potential marquee players because we will develop the second tier well enough to be competitive, so our window for finding marquee players in the draft I would imagine is fairly limited.
You can always just commit absolute highway robbery through the rookie draft too. 17 clubs would be kicking themselves for passing on cam zurhaar over and over.
 

the big lebowski

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 4, 2006
10,910
19,471
The hood
AFL Club
North Melbourne
15 disposals (8 contested), 4 marks, 4 tackles, 2.6 clearances and 0.6 goals a game. 83 rankings points per game (13 games)

He averaged the following in the SANFL seniors last year

10 disposals (7 contested), 2 marks, 3 tackles, 1.3 clearances and 0.6 goals a game. 59 rankings points per game (9 games)

Reflecting on these does show that he has improved, but it needs to be taken into account that he's played more midfield this year than last year. There probably is a sense in which I've been expecting too much from Horne, as his flashes have been amazing, as you've all seen through his highlights.

He's still #1, and there's still a fair bit of distance there from the rest of the pack, but I'd love to see him tear the champs to shreds or have a 20+ touch, 2 goal game.
Also, and I know they are completely different players in completely different positions, but interesting to compare the respective improvement in stats for Thilthorpe and Horne in their U17/U18 years at SANFL level.

From memory Thilthorpe didn’t get quite the bounce some were expecting in his second year.
 

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Hazey1977

Premiership Player
Mar 2, 2008
3,080
3,652
Dili, Timor-Leste
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
FFC, Wimbledon Hawks, Hudi Laran FC
Also, and I know they are completely different players in completely different positions, but interesting to compare the respective improvement in stats for Thilthorpe and Horne in their U17/U18 years at SANFL level.

From memory Thilthorpe didn’t get quite the bounce some were expecting in his second year.
Had OP last year didn't he?

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Merlin007

Club Legend
Jun 7, 2019
1,928
5,725
AFL Club
North Melbourne
15 disposals (8 contested), 4 marks, 4 tackles, 2.6 clearances and 0.6 goals a game. 83 rankings points per game (13 games)

He averaged the following in the SANFL seniors last year

10 disposals (7 contested), 2 marks, 3 tackles, 1.3 clearances and 0.6 goals a game. 59 rankings points per game (9 games)

Reflecting on these does show that he has improved, but it needs to be taken into account that he's played more midfield this year than last year. There probably is a sense in which I've been expecting too much from Horne, as his flashes have been amazing, as you've all seen through his highlights.

He's still #1, and there's still a fair bit of distance there from the rest of the pack, but I'd love to see him tear the champs to shreds or have a 20+ touch, 2 goal game.
two years playing against men, and at state level, not a suburban comp; there won't be many in the pool with those credentials
 

giantroo

Bleeding Blue and White
Sep 23, 2005
76,399
177,598
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Ideal scenario (IMO).
- Lose the next 3 (sad I know)
- Crows beat Hawks in R19
- Hawks beat Collingwood in R21
- North win rounds 22 and 23, finish the year with some momentum and still get Horne
Looks like the Round 21 games are being brought forward to Round 19. Port v Crows and Hawks v Pies.
 

shintemaster

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 24, 2002
16,276
30,182
Ponderama
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Looks like the Round 21 games are being brought forward to Round 19. Port v Crows and Hawks v Pies.
Priority pick talk gone quiet despite us still only winning a handful of games out of the last 2+ seasons. Given that, let's troll the industry - get these games out of the way, end up 3 behind the nearest team in 17th... then come out and absolutely destroy the last two teams we play. Just for the laughs and the meltdowns.
 

Tas

Premium Platinum
Dec 23, 2002
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There can be only one...
You can always just commit absolute highway robbery through the rookie draft too. 17 clubs would be kicking themselves for passing on cam zurhaar over and over.
I think there are heaps of kids that could make very good footballers that don't make it to an AFL list, most will just require years of development and clubs really don't have the scope to carry too many players that are high risk development types.

Cam is a good example of what can happen when things click and you aggressively take the game on. He has also shown the difficulty in sustaining both the rage and the form. It is impossible to predict who it is going to work for. That being said, if you were to take the best KPP that nobody takes in the draft and you stick the top 10 at your club and you aggressively develop them for 5 years, I would guarantee you would find 3 decent key forwards out of that 10. Clubs just don't have the scope to carry 10 kids which it knows 7 out of those 10 are going to bomb out for sure.
 
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Liam Boy

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 12, 2008
5,222
7,456
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I think there are heaps of kids that could make very good footballers that don't make it to an AFL list, most will just require years of development and clubs really don't have the scope to carry too many players that are high risk development types.

Cam is a good example of what can happen when things click and you aggressively take the game on. He has also shown the difficulty in sustaining both the rage and the form. It is impossible to predict who it is going to work for. That being said, if you were to take the best KPP that nobody takes in the draft and you stick the top 10 at your club and you aggressively develop them for 5 years, I would guarantee you would find 3 decent key forwards out of that 10. Clubs just don't have the scope to carry 10 kids which it nows 7 out of those 10 are going to bomb out for sure.
We've done very well out of the rookie draft over the years. Josh Gibson, Michael Firrito, Leigh Adams, Nathan Grima, Majak Daw, now Cam Zurhaar. There's more I could list who had solid careers.
 

Hazey1977

Premiership Player
Mar 2, 2008
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Dili, Timor-Leste
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Definitely had a groin concern in the back half of the year.
Groin concerns at 18. If I remember correctly I had a few of those Myself at 18 too, but I won't go into to details....

Oh alright, there was this one time at Aussie Sports camp.....



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