Preview 2021 AFL National Draft

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Team Captain
Jun 13, 2011
408
1,171
Canberra
AFL Club
North Melbourne
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There are no others
I reckon they are still a show for pick 1


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Yep, watch us win a few late games and end up finishing 16th. I’d like to think that we would not be that careless, but you never know.
Having said that, I did a squiggle ladder predictor which showed us with zero wins...
 

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giantroo

Bleeding Blue and White
Sep 23, 2005
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Only 24 hours after Collingwood’s loss to Gold Coast, Archie Perkins dazzled on the same ground. Here’s how he could have been a Magpie.

Collingwood’s decision last year to accept a modest Giants offer for the Magpies’ future first-round draft pick bemused rivals after its ambitious demands before that.

The Herald Sun can reveal Collingwood list manager Ned Guy wanted a top-10 selection last year in exchange for the club’s 2021 first-round pick, which is provisionally No. 2 because of the Pies’ poor start.

Guy was desperate to offload Collingwood’s top choice this year, because the club can match any bid for father-son prospect Nick Daicos, who is widely considered the best player in the draft.


The Western Bulldogs (Jamarra Ugle-Hagan), Greater Western Sydney (Tom Green) and North Melbourne (Tarryn Thomas) are among teams that previously made trades to manipulate this dynamic.

Instead, the Magpies settled for the Giants’ lesser proposal, which ended up being picks 24 and 30 in last year’s draft, plus a future fourth-round choice tacked on to satisfy AFL rules.

That’s despite a number of other clubs, including Richmond, Essendon and Adelaide, trying to prise the pick out of Collingwood.

Opposition recruiters expected the Pies’ top pick this year would land somewhere between eighth and 12th, and there is still a feeling, in some quarters, they won’t finish as low as they are now.

Collingwood already sent its future second-round pick to Hawthorn – also for a so-so return – and clubs can’t give up multiple future selections without bringing one in when a first-rounder is involved.

The AFL blocked the deal until Guy acquired an extra 2021 selection, which GWS agreed to provide.

Even then, Collingwood was fortunate to get a deal done after leaving it until almost the last moment – but the call to load up in last year’s draft has left it in a tough spot for this year’s edition.


The Magpies added six players in the national draft, whereas seven opposition clubs recruited two or fewer in a shallow class that had so many unknowns after the COVID-19-impacted season.
Adding to the complexity, they also matched a bid last year for Academy prospect Reef McInnes, who fortunately slipped to No. 23, before the Giants attempted to draft him.

Daicos is an enormous prize, but the AFL allocates a points value to picks in descending order and Collingwood must go into deficit to match an early bid on him, as its draft hand stands.

In effect, the earlier the young star is bid on, the greater number of points the Magpies will have to cough up to match.

That means Collingwood risks its first selection sliding in the 2022 draft, because the deficit will be made up then.

The Tigers tried to tempt the Pies with pick 20, which eventually was traded for Geelong’s future first-round selection.


It’s understood both the Bombers and Crows were willing to offer a bevy of picks in the 2021 draft to help with the Daicos situation, but couldn’t appease Guy.

Part of Adelaide’s package is believed to have included two picks in the 20s, but there is extra intrigue in what draft sources say Essendon was willing to part with.

The Bombers’ offer revolved around them swapping their second of three top-10 selections, which ended up being No. 9 (Archie Perkins), for Collingwood’s first pick at 17 (Oliver Henry).

Two future third-round selections as part of the offer – one of them Port Adelaide’s – were designed to help the Magpies’ points haul, while Collingwood would part with its 2021 first in return.

That potential deal would have left the Pies with a worse points disparity than the Giants one, but also a coveted top-10 pick and more points protection for the Daicos draft.

The trade will look better if Collingwood climbs the ladder by season’s end, but that won’t impact whether Guy and co. left themselves too much to do.


MASSIVE TRADE CALL COLLINGWOOD MUST CONSIDER
Jon Ralph
Nick Daicos can’t be Collingwood’s saviour all on his own.
As the realisation dawns on Collingwood’s powerbrokers they are a fairly mediocre football team, the decisions they make next will define their premiership window.
Of course the coach is the biggest decision.
Football boss Graham Wright’s statement on Saturday that “it all tracks in the right direction” for a Nathan Buckley contract extension is the most positive sign for the coach in weeks.
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Collingwood can’t just bank on father-son Nick Daicos. Picture: Michael Klein

Collingwood can’t just bank on father-son Nick Daicos. Picture: Michael Klein
But what the Pies will know better than anyone is premiership teams need a huge bunch of kids coming along together.
Nick Daicos as the No. 1 pick of 2022 and their bunch of six kids taken within pick 44 can’t be enough.
The Pies need to, at the least, find enough draft points so they don’t go into draft deficit matching a bid for Daicos, and ideally find more points to take another pick or two.
Right now trading out the future fourth-round pick is right in theory but in execution has seen them hand over the current No. 2 pick (2517 points) for just over 1400 points (picks 24, 30 and a future fourth-rounder).
Former Carlton supporter Daicos hasn’t even declared himself as a Pies father-son and will be happy to be interviewed by rival clubs to go through the process before he makes his decision.
Still, surely by year’s end he is a certainty to nominate the Pies and join brother Josh, who along with Isaac Quaynor, Darcy Cameron, Mark Keane, Finlay Macrae and Beau McCreery will join the nucleus of the next wave.
Isaac Quaynor is among Collingwood’s crop of youngsters. Picture: Getty Images

Isaac Quaynor is among Collingwood’s crop of youngsters. Picture: Getty Images
Given the club’s entire list management strategy was based around keeping Jordan De Goey, Darcy Moore and Brodie Grundy, they aint going anywhere.
As Wright told ABC Radio on Saturday, ideally clubs don’t offer seven-year deals but a host of rivals would have done so with Grundy, so they are on the hook for six more years and six million.
It means rivals will spend the season picking over the Collingwood list.
Mason Cox is the tallest player in the competition and has played big finals in the 2018 preliminary final and Grand Finals and last year’s elimination final.
He’s a little like Tyrone Vickery – kicks goals but otherwise wildly inconsistent.
But surely a rival would give up a second-round pick for a player who is under-utilised as a ruckman, having averaged less than three centre bounces per game since 2018.
Lost in the mediocrity has been the excellent form of Darcy Cameron, who kicked three goals from 22 possessions on Anzac Day and had 13 hit-outs and 10 contested possessions against the Suns.
The Pies can afford to move on Cox, aware he will never be the club’s ruckman behind Grundy and out-of-contract ruck-forward Cameron.
It’s easy to trade Americans, who are out of contract and aware of the US sports market where players change teams multiple times a year.
Steele Sidebottom would be the premium product that might cap off a list hellbent on a premiership.
Could Steele Sidebottom provide Collingwood with value on the trade table? Picture: Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/Getty Images

Could Steele Sidebottom provide Collingwood with value on the trade table? Picture: Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/Getty Images
He turned 30 in January, is a free agent in 2022, and might see a club hand over a very early second-round pick.
If that seems overs, remember that the Cats handed over pick 30 for Shaun Higgins, who was 32 at the time.
They can’t trade Scott Pendlebury, they shouldn’t trade Taylor Adams or Jeremy Howe, and there is very little other currency on their list.
Daicos is the best kid in the land, but the recruiters aren’t labelling him the generational talent like Chris Judd or Lance Franklin who can change a club’s fortunes on his own shoulders.
No, this will be a weight-of-numbers resurgence and the Pies can’t do it by taking only a single pick in November’s national draft.
It means potentially tough decisions on beloved players.
Having ripped the bandaid off with last year’s jaw-dropping trade period, the Pies can’t afford to stop the pain after only one off-season.
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
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Mason Cox is the tallest player in the competition and has played big finals in the 2018 preliminary final and Grand Finals and last year’s elimination final.
He’s a little like Tyrone Vickery – kicks goals but otherwise wildly inconsistent.

But surely a rival would give up a second-round pick for a player who is under-utilised as a ruckman, having averaged less than three centre bounces per game since 2018.
Ahh, no.
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
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What pick would we be asking for if we were to trade or first rounder for 2022 for a pick in this years draft? To have 2 top 5 picks this year would fast track our rebuild
You would think it would require a top 5 pick in exchange.

Do any sides do that without hot FS & academy prospects on the horizon?
 

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Merlin007

Club Legend
Jun 7, 2019
1,350
3,847
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Given we're in a serious re-build, its clear that we should trade out next years first round pick (perhaps to be 5-8) for another first rounder this year around the same mark. Two top ten picks would complement our draft hand from 2020.
In 2022 we could then go for a free agent.
It's a big call, eh? Depending on how the inner sanctum view our prospects, it might mean giving away 1-3 next year for 5-8 this year; the other variable is how they rate this year's crop against what they might see for next year. Who'd be a list manager
 

AnEmptyChair

All Australian
Nov 12, 2020
779
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What pick would we be asking for if we were to trade or first rounder for 2022 for a pick in this years draft? To have 2 top 5 picks this year would fast track our rebuild
I'd do our 2022 1st for a 2021 top 5-6 and a 2021 top 15 (which could potentially result in a 2021 draft haul of something like Horne, Sinn, Van Rooyen). I'd also do our 2022 1st for a top 5-6 2021 and a 2022 1st from a team likely to finish in the top 10-12 range. I'd also do our 2022 1st and then some change for Harry McKay.

I know that would be unpopular but I've already posted my own personal opinions a lot about how I think we should be stocking up this year to fit best with our current group.
 

AnEmptyChair

All Australian
Nov 12, 2020
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Thinking more about the above and imo we have an enormous opportunity to really capitalise on this draft and bring in a heap of talented kids all at the same time.

An ideal situation would be Collingwood moves up the ladder a bit to pick 4-ish, GWS end up with 10-12. We trade 2022 1st and a 2nd or 3rd to GWS for those two picks, take 1, 4, 10, 20, as well as any Dumont (as loathe as I would be to lose him) compo, which could be 21 if band 3. Including Powell and Phillips, we'd effectively have 6 first rounders within 2 years of each other.
 

7577969923

Premiership Player
Sep 20, 2018
4,546
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Thinking more about the above and imo we have an enormous opportunity to really capitalise on this draft and bring in a heap of talented kids all at the same time.

An ideal situation would be Collingwood moves up the ladder a bit to pick 4-ish, GWS end up with 10-12. We trade 2022 1st and a 2nd or 3rd to GWS for those two picks, take 1, 4, 10, 20, as well as any Dumont (as loathe as I would be to lose him) compo, which could be 21 if band 3. Including Powell and Phillips, we'd effectively have 6 first rounders within 2 years of each other.
I can't see GWS giving up the certainty of 4 and 10 this year for pick 22 and an unknown pick next year. They may even strongly believe we will be last next year but still not convinced they would do that trade. You might get pick 4 plus an upgrade of a 3rd to 2nd round.
 

Souup

Norm Smith Medallist
May 8, 2005
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Souup how do you rate Horne against mids taken in previous few drafts
Bloody hard but I'll give it a shot.

These are the 5 I ranked highest based on how I felt about them by the end of their draft year (which I can't do with Horne yet but I'll do anyway...):

1. Walsh
2. Horne
3. Rowell
4. LDU
5. Brayshaw

Phillips could have snuck in had he played in his draft year and impressed by building on his excellent underage year. I had Powell as the 2nd best midfielder in last year's draft but I didn't expect him to come on as quickly as he has - not being able to see him at an Under 18's championship also affected my perspective on how much better he was than others the same age.

I had LDU rated #1 in his draft and to this day I will say that he's the most natural footballer I've seen at under 18's level. Note this isn't necessarily 'best', but his kicking technique, handballing, movement in traffic, running gait etc. are textbook. I'm still of the opinion that he's our best mid and if he continues to improve he's our most realistic chance at becoming a Bontempelli/Martin/Petracca level of elite.

Hated Rayner as a top 15 selection. Wasn't huge on Bailey Smith or Cerra - I didn't hate them, but had them ~5 spots lower than most others - they've definitely been better then I thought.

EDIT: Swapped Rowell and Walsh
 
Last edited:

AnEmptyChair

All Australian
Nov 12, 2020
779
2,662
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I can't see GWS giving up the certainty of 4 and 10 this year for pick 22 and an unknown pick next year. They may even strongly believe we will be last next year but still not convinced they would do that trade. You might get pick 4 plus an upgrade of a 3rd to 2nd round.
Oh, absolutely. It's all speculation, mate. I jut think something like that is the best case scenario for us imo and what we should be looking to do, however I understand I'm in the minority with that view.
 

Passmore

Brownlow Medallist
May 22, 2001
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Bloody hard but I'll give it a shot.

These are the 5 I ranked highest based on how I felt about them by the end of their draft year (which I can't do with Horne yet but I'll do anyway...):

1. Walsh
2. Horne
3. Rowell
4. LDU
5. Brayshaw

Phillips could have snuck in had he played in his draft year and impressed by building on his excellent underage year. I had Powell as the 2nd best midfielder in last year's draft but I didn't expect him to come on as quickly as he has - not being able to see him at an Under 18's championship also affected my perspective on how much better he was than others the same age.

I had LDU rated #1 in his draft and to this day I will say that he's the most natural footballer I've seen at under 18's level. Note this isn't necessarily 'best', but his kicking technique, handballing, movement in traffic, running gait etc. are textbook. I'm still of the opinion that he's our best mid and if he continues to improve he's our most realistic chance at becoming a Bontempelli/Martin/Petracca level of elite.

Hated Rayner as a top 15 selection. Wasn't huge on Bailey Smith or Cerra - I didn't hate them, but had them ~5 spots lower than most others - they've definitely been better then I thought.
A stroke of good fortune for us that he didn't get to play it would appear.
 

7577969923

Premiership Player
Sep 20, 2018
4,546
11,383
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Oh, absolutely. It's all speculation, mate. I jut think something like that is the best case scenario for us imo and what we should be looking to do, however I understand I'm in the minority with that view.
If the team had that deal in front of them I would definitely be happy if they jumped all over it.
 

Souup

Norm Smith Medallist
May 8, 2005
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A stroke of good fortune for us that he didn't get to play it would appear.
Many were lamenting that our highest pick since the Wells draft was in a year where the Vic kids got limited/no exposure and no U18's Championship.

In hindsight, had the Vic kids played and the U18 Champs happened there's a really good chance we don't end up with Powell and Jacob Edwards would currently be on another AFL list instead of us potentially grabbing him in the MSD.
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
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Many were lamenting that our highest pick since the Wells draft was in a year where the Vic kids got limited/no exposure and no U18's Championship.

In hindsight, had the Vic kids played and the U18 Champs happened there's a really good chance we don't end up with Powell and Jacob Edwards is sitting on some other list right now instead of us talking about picking him up in the MSD.

Good points. I dare say Lazarro's running power would have caught the eye also.
 

R00StaR

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 3, 2003
5,573
3,154
Asgard
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Bloody hard but I'll give it a shot.

These are the 5 I ranked highest based on how I felt about them by the end of their draft year (which I can't do with Horne yet but I'll do anyway...):

1. Walsh
2. Horne
3. Rowell
4. LDU
5. Brayshaw

Phillips could have snuck in had he played in his draft year and impressed by building on his excellent underage year. I had Powell as the 2nd best midfielder in last year's draft but I didn't expect him to come on as quickly as he has - not being able to see him at an Under 18's championship also affected my perspective on how much better he was than others the same age.

I had LDU rated #1 in his draft and to this day I will say that he's the most natural footballer I've seen at under 18's level. Note this isn't necessarily 'best', but his kicking technique, handballing, movement in traffic, running gait etc. are textbook. I'm still of the opinion that he's our best mid and if he continues to improve he's our most realistic chance at becoming a Bontempelli/Martin/Petracca level of elite.

Hated Rayner as a top 15 selection. Wasn't huge on Bailey Smith or Cerra - I didn't hate them, but had them ~5 spots lower than most others - they've definitely been better then I thought.

EDIT: Swapped Rowell and Walsh
So we could potentially have 2 of the top 5 with Powell right up there in the mix, exciting times.
 

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