Player Watch 2021 AFL National Draft - NOT FOR TRADE DISCUSSION

[Strapping Young Lad]

Let’s stick with a basic rule for this thread, that it’s for draft watch and discussion only.

It’s not for trade hypotheticals, who you think needs to be delisted or traded, how many games you think we will win, some other team will win, how many picks you want in the 1st round or discussion of current HFC players.

It’s about youngsters who are eligible for the draft in 2021.


Key dates to look out for:

• NAB AFL Draft Combine: TBC
• NAB AFL Draft: Wednesday November 24 - Thursday November 25
• NAB AFL Pre-season and Rookie Drafts: Friday November 26

 

[TooOldTooSlowTooGood]

On last nights effort and with games against the Crows and the Pies left I’m not banking on a bottom two finish.

Thinking on form GC in 14th are out of reach but could easily finish anywhere from 15th through 18th.

That could be pick 6 with a couple F/S selections. Surely no one last night was thinking, geez I hope Melbourne kick a couple here… couple more wins for the kids playing and finish 15th for mine. Back the club to pick the right player, pretty happy with DGB and Day.

 

[danielG]

On last nights effort and with games against the Crows and the Pies left I’m not banking on a bottom two finish.

Thinking on form GC in 14th are out of reach but could easily finish anywhere from 15th through 18th.

That could be pick 6 with a couple F/S selections. Surely no one last night was thinking, geez I hope Melbourne kick a couple here… couple more wins for the kids playing and finish 15th for mine. Back the club to pick the right player, pretty happy with DGB and Day.

Today could be interesting.. get behind a magpies, kangas, Crows treble..
a bottom two finish would be helpful .I think Davo is on board the Callaghan wagon.. he looks most suited to our needs.
horne keeps going with 9 touches a game as he did yesterday he might not be a formality as pick one ( excluding father sons)..
the Crows hawks and hawks v magpies games will decide where we finish..

 

[TooOldTooSlowTooGood]

Today could be interesting.. get behind a magpies, kangas, Crows treble..
a bottom two finish would be helpful .I think Davo is on board the Callaghan wagon.. he looks most suited to our needs.
horne keeps going with 9 touches a game as he did yesterday he might not be a formality as pick one ( excluding father sons)..
the Crows hawks and hawks v magpies games will decide where we finish..

That’s it, so much water to go under the bridge before you start getting too heavily invested in anyone, I’ve only just gotten over not taking Brodie Kemp…. :/

Crows look like a rabble to me, not sure they’ll do much more this year.

Magpies, Kangas, Crows treble paying $14.50 for those that are all in on Horne!

 

[Blackhawk42]

Hearing word that Finn Callaghan is done for the year, not ideal news!

Very close eye on the Goater if this is true.

 

[PMBangers]

Hearing word that Finn Callaghan is done for the year, not ideal news!

When did you hear this out of curiosity?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Champs postponed again

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Champs postponed again

They didn't even manage to hold one in 2020 did they ?

 

[Brant]

Champs postponed again

Just give us Callaghan & be done with it already...

 

[Brishawk]

Just give us Callaghan & be done with it already...

I think we should get a priority pick on account of the uncertainty caused by the lack of exposure of talent to recruiters in the past two seasons

 

[TylerDurden]

 

[daniel23]

Fingers crossed we get to see more footy from these Vic kids so the player rankings become more clear, to think we may only see half a year of footy in the last 2 years is a bit of a worry though. But as is north are a lock for horne and I feel adelaide will take Roberts if they finish below us. If we go above Collingwood finn could look very enticing to gws woth Kelly potentially on the move.

 

[Chioli]

Fingers crossed we get to see more footy from these Vic kids so the player rankings become more clear, to think we may only see half a year of footy in the last 2 years is a bit of a worry though. But as is north are a lock for horne and I feel adelaide will take Roberts if they finish below us. If we go above Collingwood finn could look very enticing to gws woth Kelly potentially on the move.

Pick 6 was great for us last year. 13 the year before.

I would be pretty happy with Finn or Hobbs. Both fit our needs

 

[daniel23]

Pick 6 was great for us last year. 13 the year before.

I would be pretty happy with Finn or Hobbs. Both fit our needs

Ward is growing on me

 

[Brant]

Ward is growing on me

You can get that burnt off, you know?


Oh... Ward - sorry... misread what you'd written...

 

[jenniferHAWKinS]

Pick 6 was great for us last year. 13 the year before.

I would be pretty happy with Finn or Hobbs. Both fit our needs

No to Hobbs. We need more speed in the midfield not more of what we already have.

 

[Bardo State]

Pick 6 was great for us last year. 13 the year before.

I would be pretty happy with Finn or Hobbs. Both fit our needs

I agree with the sentiment.

Ward, Sinn, Goater, Johnson, Roberts have all been around the mark at different points. The club might still like Sonsie, Rachele, Chesser.

Draft watchers seem to be in such a flux with how they position these guys. Another selection around 10 would be great to pick up another guy from that pack.

Seems to me to be a big draft advantage for finishing 18th vs 17th, but not so much 17th vs 15th. We'll see how much junior footy can be played to change that.

 

[CaptainWorpedo]

That’s it, so much water to go under the bridge before you start getting too heavily invested in anyone, I’ve only just gotten over not taking Brodie Kemp…. :/

Crows look like a rabble to me, not sure they’ll do much more this year.

Magpies, Kangas, Crows treble paying $14.50 for those that are all in on Horne!

Brodie Kemp is un contracted at the end of this year. Come to us via the PSD Brodie.

 

[Brant]

Brodie Kemp is un contracted at the end of this year. Come to us via the PSD Brodie.

Whomever sits bottom 1-3 (below us) would most certainly grab him - we'd have no chance unless we finished 18th

 

[TooOldTooSlowTooGood]

Brodie Kemp is un contracted at the end of this year. Come to us via the PSD Brodie.

That has a ring to it doesn’t with how invested some of us got on here!

Thought I read somewhere he played a couple a decent VFL games before the CoVid enforced byes came along? Can’t see them getting through all that rehab with him then not resigning him after his initial contract!

 

[jenniferHAWKinS]

Rachele a possible slider. Would love him with one of our early 2nd rounders or trade for the Bulldogs 1st (Pick 21 and 56 for 17 as it currently stands) and nab him there.

 

[Alite]

This is why the AFL really needs to consider having a lottery to see who gets the top picks. The reality is that you will never stop teams tanking but the way some teams have gone about it recently where they only win 2-3 games all year is getting out of hand. The lottery system would have the bottom 3 teams getting the best odds to get the top pick then higher odds to pick just outside the top 3. Unfortunately this only moves the goal posts on which teams tank because some will start to lose to finish in the bottom 3 i.e. teams just outside the bottom 3. These teams however will still have slightly better odds at getting the top pick than the ones finishing just outside the 8.

Anyways you could just imagine how awesome it would be for the AFL to have a televised lottery which once the final ladder order is set could happen just before the first finals game is played. It would keep all the non-finals teams fans enthralled and something to get excited about going into the offseason. Oh and I’m with you TD in that I hate my team losing but the draft is one of the most obvious ways to eventually get the team back on track with a bit of luck and smart savvy drafting.

I could not agree more Bugs1977 that a lottery makes sense. Like TylerDurden & Rocket72 , I hate having a part of me thinking that winning games means we have no chance at getting pick 1 ~= Jason Horne… the player I believe best fits our needs.

For the mathematically minded, here is how I see a lottery working for only the top 10 draft picks to be assigned to the teams that finish from 9th to 18th (given that no fan of a team that is 8th would want to finish 9th for a better draft hand)

For the details of the lottery see the attached doc.

Pick 1: 18th has a 50% chance at pick 1, 17th gets a 25% chance, 16th = 12.5%, 15th = 6.25%… and so on down to 9th having a 0.1% chance (= 1 in a thousand+ years)
If, say, the team finishing 17th gets lucky (a 1 in 4 chance) and wins the lottery for pick 1, then the 18th team is bumped up to a 67% chance on getting pick 2, the 16th team has a 17% chance, 15th an 8% chance, 14th a 4% chance… etc…
If 18th wins pick 2 then the team that finished 16th gets a 50% chance at pick 3, 15th a 25% chance, … and so on.

This would reduce the perceived reward for loosing, minimise the discussion of tanking, help retain hope in fans that they will get the player that they like, and muffle the logic that says finishing lower on the ladder guarantees a better draft hand. Further, on averages, the AFL gets to keep its equalisation strategy.

BTW … it just so happens that in the above scenario the Hawks would be guaranteed the opportunity to draft Jason Horne.

Edit: More Info: The key equation in excel: Pick 1 chance% = 0.0009775*POWER(2,(ladder position - 9)+1)

 

[BurnaHawks]

I could not agree more Bugs1977 that a lottery makes sense. Like TylerDurden & Rocket72 , I hate having a part of me thinking that winning games means we have no chance at getting pick 1 ~= Jason Horne… the player I believe best fits our needs.

For the mathematically minded, here is how I see a lottery working for only the top 10 draft picks to be assigned to the teams that finish from 9th to 18th (given that no fan of a team that is 8th would want to finish 9th for a better draft hand)

For the details of the lottery see the attached doc.

Pick 1: 18th has a 50% chance at pick 1, 17th gets a 25% chance, 16th = 12.5%, 15th = 6.25%… and so on down to 9th having a 0.1% chance (= 1 in a thousand+ years)
If, say, the team finishing 17th gets lucky (a 1 in 4 chance) and wins the lottery for pick 1, then the 18th team is bumped up to a 67% chance on getting pick 2, the 16th team has a 17% chance, 15th an 8% chance, 14th a 4% chance… etc…
If 18th wins pick 2 then the team that finished 16th gets a 50% chance at pick 3, 15th a 25% chance, … and so on.

This would reduce the perceived reward for loosing, minimise the discussion of tanking, help retain hope in fans that they will get the player that they like, and muffle the logic that says finishing lower on the ladder guarantees a better draft hand. Further, on averages, the AFL gets to keep its equalisation strategy.

BTW … it just so happens that in the above scenario the Hawks would be guaranteed the opportunity to draft Jason Horne.

Don’t get me wrong. I do agree with this logic. But the only major issue with it would be. If a team is clearly the worst team in it and looking like being the worst team for a stretch.

That team need access to the best talent. They could get unlucky with the draw and miss out on the cream of the draft and set them back years.

?? this is a hard one

 

[danielG]

I could not agree more Bugs1977 that a lottery makes sense. Like TylerDurden & Rocket72 , I hate having a part of me thinking that winning games means we have no chance at getting pick 1 ~= Jason Horne… the player I believe best fits our needs.

For the mathematically minded, here is how I see a lottery working for only the top 10 draft picks to be assigned to the teams that finish from 9th to 18th (given that no fan of a team that is 8th would want to finish 9th for a better draft hand)

For the details of the lottery see the attached doc.

Pick 1: 18th has a 50% chance at pick 1, 17th gets a 25% chance, 16th = 12.5%, 15th = 6.25%… and so on down to 9th having a 0.1% chance (= 1 in a thousand+ years)
If, say, the team finishing 17th gets lucky (a 1 in 4 chance) and wins the lottery for pick 1, then the 18th team is bumped up to a 67% chance on getting pick 2, the 16th team has a 17% chance, 15th an 8% chance, 14th a 4% chance… etc…
If 18th wins pick 2 then the team that finished 16th gets a 50% chance at pick 3, 15th a 25% chance, … and so on.

This would reduce the perceived reward for loosing, minimise the discussion of tanking, help retain hope in fans that they will get the player that they like, and muffle the logic that says finishing lower on the ladder guarantees a better draft hand. Further, on averages, the AFL gets to keep its equalisation strategy.

BTW … it just so happens that in the above scenario the Hawks would be guaranteed the opportunity to draft Jason Horne.

Don’t get me wrong. I do agree with this logic. But the only major issue with it would be. If a team is clearly the worst team in it and looking like being the worst team for a stretch.

That team need access to the best talent. They could get unlucky with the draw and miss out on the cream of the draft and set them back years.

?? this is a hard one

If it were a bottom 5 lottery with a 40, 30, 15, 10, 5 percentage of gaining access to pick one that would give the bottom pick a really favorable chance of getting pick one. The gap between pick one and pick 5 isn't an enormous gulf and the gap between the bottom 5 teams generally isn't that enormous (case in point being this year).
I think its an obvious change.
The AFL isn't great at fixings obvious flaws in their system.

 

[matey]

Twomey's Draft Team of the Year: Explosive Swan's brother, Freo prospect make a move

Check out draft guru Cal Twomey's updated Draft Team of the Year

www.afl.com.au

 

[matey]

The player your AFL club should consider taking with their first draft pick

Every AFL club’s biggest list hole... and the draft star that can fix it

www.foxsports.com.au