AFL 2021 AFL Preliminary Finals

[Jugada]

Been nothing between these 4 sides all season dont really see a blowout happening myself.

Port beat Geelong by 40+ in their last match. Sure its more likely than not to fall under the 40 margin but seems unnecessary risk for mine to put a cap on winning margin

 

[54Dogs]

I think the Dogs are cooked. Been doing the world tour, couple of injuries, would not be surprised to see a blowout

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

I think the Dogs are cooked. Been doing the world tour, couple of injuries, would not be surprised to see a blowout

Don’t worry, the umpires will get them across the line again.

 

[The_Steadier]

Don’t worry, the umpires will get them across the line again.

I'd be wary of glass houses and stones there.

It's no coincidence that when you type "free kick" into google there is only one other team that comes up as a suggestion

 

[demon_fanatic]

thoughts on unders for libba if released? drew did a great job last time only 18 touches i think and surely goes to him again, also interesting stat in the 50 minutes selwood went to oliver he had like 18-19 touches so selwoods lower line coming off a few quiet games could be a good one to target for Overs??

 

[5 Bucks]

thoughts on unders for libba if released? drew did a great job last time only 18 touches i think and surely goes to him again, also interesting stat in the 50 minutes selwood went to oliver he had like 18-19 touches so selwoods lower line coming off a few quiet games could be a good one to target for Overs??

Makes sense, especially since Libba was the one to do plenty of damage v Brisbane.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Scott mentioned going with Duncan and Menegola on ball in his presser and backing in his midfield.
Duncan 25+ 1.60 Pointsbet
Duncan 30+ 3.50 Pointsbet
Menegola 25+ 2.20 Sportsbet
Menegola 30+ 5.50 Pointsbet

 

[Prochard123]

Scott mentioned going with Duncan and Menegola on ball in his presser and backing in his midfield.
Duncan 25+ 1.60 Pointsbet
Duncan 30+ 3.50 Pointsbet
Menegola 25+ 2.20 Sportsbet
Menegola 30+ 5.50 Pointsbet

Does that still apply if Higgins come in for Parfitt? Or does that most likely mean Higgins probably won't play this weekend?

 

[ShaunWDT]

Does that still apply if Higgins come in for Parfitt? Or does that most likely mean Higgins probably won't play this weekend?

He didn't want to confirm who the in would be but you'd think it probably is Higgins, experienced and can play half forward and wing exactly where Duncan and Menegola have been used, Menegola is the bet I really like, more match fitness and was huge post Parfitt's injury last week (had 24 after quarter time).

 

[demon_fanatic]

Does that still apply if Higgins come in for Parfitt? Or does that most likely mean Higgins probably won't play this weekend?

yeh like it , can grab slightly bettter tab duncan 1.70, menengola 2.25

 

[Prochard123]

He didn't want to confirm who the in would be but you'd think it probably is Higgins, experienced and can play half forward and wing exactly where Duncan and Menegola have been used, Menegola is the bet I really like, more match fitness and was huge post Parfitt's injury last week (had 24 after quarter time).

yeh like it , can grab slightly bettter tab duncan 1.70, menengola 2.25

I like it too but I have vowed to never include Duncan in anything ever again due to his injury risk.

He actually doesn't miss too many games in general but seems to always burn me when I'm on him.

 

[TryAnHit]

Scott mentioned going with Duncan and Menegola on ball in his presser and backing in his midfield.
Duncan 25+ 1.60 Pointsbet
Duncan 30+ 3.50 Pointsbet
Menegola 25+ 2.20 Sportsbet
Menegola 30+ 5.50 Pointsbet

just like he said last week Duncan would be playing fwd last week... yet he was taking kickins

 

[demon_fanatic]

actually quite like the over in Geelong/Dees, Scott has indicated he's going to back his midfield to go toe to toe, they broke open the demons with quick movement last time and basically lost the game by trying to protect a lead, I see this as an attacking game and 151.5 can be cleared in perfect conditions (1mm of rain forecast but doubt it affects game). I can see a 50 pt qtr getting this over the line and the rest being that high 30's-40 kind of average, overs are tough to take in finals but I do like it, Ratoguela will also probably stop the easy intercept marks for Lever May

 

[GROTTO]

actually quite like the over in Geelong/Dees, Scott has indicated he's going to back his midfield to go toe to toe, they broke open the demons with quick movement last time and basically lost the game by trying to protect a lead, I see this as an attacking game and 151.5 can be cleared in perfect conditions (1mm of rain forecast but doubt it affects game). I can see a 50 pt qtr getting this over the line and the rest being that high 30's-40 kind of average, overs are tough to take in finals but I do like it, Ratoguela will also probably stop the easy intercept marks for Lever May

I can also see these campaigners/atheletes panic and choke under the pressure of a prelim and shank all their kicks at goal too.

 

[BloodRet]

I'd be wary of glass houses and stones there.

It's no coincidence that when you type "free kick" into google there is only one other team that comes up as a suggestion

View attachment 1228629

Happy to see free kick Hawthorn right down the bottom there I had a lot of time for that meme

 

[Robo87]

My 5c worth before teams announce later today-
Leaning towards port -13.5 @1.90 sb. i just think port have more firepower up forward, and their defense will hold up stronger than the dogs. home crowd advantage and extra rest also contributing factors for me. & Even if bont gets up for it, he could have reduced gametime.
other options- dogs under 71.5 points or power over 84.5 pts.

1u boak ags @2.54 TS
0.3u boak 2g+@9 pb
0.2u boak 3g+@51 pb
others i like-
Fantasia 2,3,4g @1.98/3.8/9.25 TS
gray 2,3,3g+4g @3.10 ts /8.25 lads /31.50 sb boost
rozee 2,3,4g @3.75/11/41 tab (or 43.75 sb)
1 can see one of these 3 small fwds getting off the leash. Like someone has mentioned on here- Keath may contain dixons output but dogs seem to struggle v small fwds.

dont mind Petracca in 'Petracca v Miers goal matchup'. @2.16 ts
I just don't rate Miers highly for goals anymore, only 11.7 in his 14 games.
I do rate petracca for a goal. Has kicked 17.8 in his last 14 games.
altho i will go for the different option here:
1u 'petracca full time player goals =1' @2.51 ts.
Ratugolea ags not a bad price also at @1.89 ts, as should play fwd again with 2 best defenders going to hawkins and cameron.

Edit: will wait for teams but like SGM- Boak Ags, Gray 2g+, rozee 2g+ @30 sb boosted

 

[ShaunWDT]

My 5c worth before teams announce later today-
Leaning towards port -13.5 @1.90 sb. i just think port have more firepower up forward, and their defense will hold up stronger than the dogs. home crowd advantage and extra rest also contributing factors for me. & Even if bont gets up for it, he could have reduced gametime.
other options- dogs under 71.5 points or power over 84.5 pts.

1u boak ags @2.54 TS
0.3u boak 2g+@9 pb
0.2u boak 3g+@51 pb
others i l ike-
Fantasia 2,3,4g @1.98/3.8/9.25 TS
gray 2,3,3g+4g @3.10 ts /8.25 lads /31.50 sb boost
rozee 2,3,4g @3.75/11/41 tab (or 43.75 sb)
1 can see one of these 3 small fwds getting off the leash. Like someone has mentioned on here- Keath may contain dixons output but dogs seem to struggle v small fwds.

dont mind Petracca in 'Petracca v Miers goal matchup'. @2.16 ts
I just don't rate Miers highly for goals anymore, only 11.7 in his 14 games.
I do rate petracca for a goal. Has kicked 17.8 in his last 14 games.
altho i will go for the different option here:
1u 'petracca full time player goals =1' @2.51 ts.
Ratugolea ags not a bad price also at @1.89 ts, as should play fwd again with 2 best defenders going to hawkins and cameron.

Ratugolea could only kick one in a side that just booted 15, against the best defence in the comp I dont like his chances.

 

[4THAWN]

Melbourne should walk in. People on here talking about Melbourne choking? WTF? Geelong 10x more likely to put in a stinker in a must-win final. Having said that, Geelong are a capable team and it was only 2 years ago they lead Richmond significantly at half time in a prelim final. That richmond team was a juggernaut compared to any team in the competition at the moment. Personally can't see it happening for Geelong in 2021 after all their attempts in recent years.

Port v Dogs game closer, Port clearly the classier team and to be honest find it hard to believe the umpires will drag the dogs to victory for the 3rd consecutive week. Week off + Bont injury should be enough to keep port ahead. I'm not a port fan by any means but they've started to prove me wrong too many times. They are a very skillful team when rolling.

Would probably be on the look for good odds on melb 40+ although doubt you'd get an enticing price.

 

[NonPhixion]

Port 60+ $10 SB

 

[Prochard123]

Having a close look at the WBD vs Port matchup.

All signs point to Bont unders for disposals, with increased confidence if S Martin doesn't come in for Young.

 

[Pacman82]

Dees Win
Spargo 2+
Bullen 2+
Hawkins 2+
@112 SB pwd

 

[ShaunWDT]

No extra mid for the Cats, chips in on Duncan 30+.

 

[Pacman82]

One the other way in case the Dees choke. Also Menegola at FP kicked 2 last week, $2.30 AGS & $9 for 2..

Cats Win
Hawkins 3+
Cameron 3+
Menegola 1+
@30.5 SB pwd

Hawkins 3+
Cameron 3+
Menegola 2+
Spargo 1+
Bullen 1+
@276 SB

 

[BloodRet]

 

[Prochard123]

View attachment 1230704

Hawkins 2 goals for $1.96 is unreal