AFL 2021 AFL Round 12

[XYZ123]

S*#!@ the afl site just changed him to 19.

FFS. Was just on the Sportsbet chat too. Ah well.

 

[Jonsyd1]

This is the disposal they dis-counted, kinda looks like a handball but pretty hard to tell from the angle

 

[Sausage Legs]

Tigers 1.80 v eags reserves side. Yes please

 

[iluvparis]

Hyeplord faders in full chase made

1.6U - WCE +11.5 @ $1.93 (365)
1.4U - WCE H2H @ 2.57 (top)

Dees v Lions -1U

Outstanding week from the hypelord faders - nailed both matches just unlucky the bottom 8 Brions went to water after half time

7-10, +2.171

 

[NYRB]

Fair play to Sportsbet for throwing up those dangling goalscorer combined odds

McKay, Betts and Jack Martin bet was over by qtr time

Liam Ryan, Darling and Waterman was a bet that also didn't come through.

Bruce, English and English to score in all quarters didn't come through, as well as the Lobb/Taberner/Schultz which was void as I assumed one of those players didn't play.

 

[kicksome]

S*#!@ the afl site just changed him to 19.

The AFL received a call from Sportsbet....

 

[pendlebury_10]

Dees v Lions -1U

Outstanding week from the hypelord faders - nailed both matches just unlucky the bottom 8 Brions went to water after half time

7-10, +2.171

How does that possibly constitute nailing both matches?

 

[iluvparis]

How does that possibly constitute nailing both matches?

I took 2.10 and they started 1.78 or something. They were 1.15 at half time - if you had a vagina you could have locked in bank but I am hero so chose to let it ride. Sometimes we are all hostages to variance.

 

[Jugada]

Can't argue with a guy who even when he's wrong he's right

I'll claim my Don's line bet as a W while we're at it cos I could have bailed for a profit half way through the last

 

[iluvparis]

Can't argue with a guy who even when he's wrong he's right

I'll claim my Don's line bet as a W while we're at it cos I could have bailed for a profit half way through the last

Bit hard to argue taking even money+ shots that trade 1.15 in running are poor bets regardless of outcome - that's so some solid results orientated thinking - the kind of results orientated thinking that allows the hypelord faders to make mad bank (although not really - for someone reason the modeLOLers keep backing the Blues EVERY SINGLE WEEK even though they show no ability to win a game).

 

[Jugada]

Bit hard to argue taking even money+ shots that trade 1.15 in running are poor bets regardless of outcome - that's so some solid results orientated thinking - the kind of results orientated thinking that allows the hypelord faders to make mad bank (although not really - for someone reason the modeLOLers keep backing the Blues EVERY SINGLE WEEK even though they show no ability to win a game).

Thats just lucking out and your bad bet having a good period early. Ie variance. Over the course of the full match Dees were clearly shown up as the better bet.

 

[iluvparis]

Thats just lucking out and your bad bet having a good period early. Ie variance. Over the course of the full match Dees were clearly shown up as the better bet.

Under this definition of lucking out everything is variance.

 

[pendlebury_10]

I took 2.10 and they started 1.78 or something. They were 1.15 at half time - if you had a vagina you could have locked in bank but I am hero so chose to let it ride. Sometimes we are all hostages to variance.

I'm not still sure how that's nailing the game. Melbourne took control of the contest and asserted their dominance when it was up for grabs, like they have all year over the rest of the competition. If anything, Brisbane showed again the squibs that they are whenever the pressure goes up a notch!

You only need to look at their games this year - They're 2-3 against Top 8 teams, with wins at home against Port (lol) and an undermanned Tigers. Losses to Swans, Cats & Dogs. Are you sure you didn't trick yourself into fading the wrong hypelord here?

 

[Jugada]

Going to be a lot of winners if you put a tick next to your bet any time the price shortens during the match

 

[iluvparis]

I'm not still sure how that's nailing the game. Melbourne took control of the contest and asserted their dominance when it was up for grabs, like they have all year over the rest of the competition. If anything, Brisbane showed again the squibs that they are whenever the pressure goes up a notch!

You only need to look at their games this year - They're 2-3 against Top 8 teams, with wins at home against Port (lol) and an undermanned Tigers. Losses to Swans, Cats & Dogs. Are you sure you didn't trick yourself into fading the wrong hypelord here?

As I said. They were 2.10. Jumped 1.78 and traded 1.15 in running. An outstanding bet that is long term +ev on any metric

 

[iluvparis]

Going to be a lot of winners if you put a tick next to your bet any time the price shortens during the match

Not as many ticks as taking 2.10 shots that trade 1.15 in running. That’s shooting fish in a barrel stuff

#fillup

 

[The_Steadier]

What constitutes a 'good' bet is entirely subjective, little wonder differing subjects/people have differing views.

Person A says a good bet is one that wins.

Person B says a good bet is one that during play for a moment, appears more likely to occur than it did previously.

Person C says a good bet is one where you keep your hand in your pocket and instead invest your stake in drugs and loose women.

Who's right?

Everybody and nobody all at once.

 

[SM]

Thats just lucking out and your bad bet having a good period early. Ie variance. Over the course of the full match Dees were clearly shown up as the better bet.

Popped in here to laugh at ILP as I guessed he went against the Dees yet again, and I am not disappointed.

 

[iluvparis]

Popped in here to laugh at ILP as I guessed he went against the Dees yet again, and I am not disappointed.

Enjoy your ban

 

[SM]

As I said. They were 2.10. Jumped 1.78 and traded 1.15 in running. An outstanding bet that is long term +ev on any metric

At one point the Saints were $1.50 against us despite opening at above $2. Does that make backing them a good bet?

 

[iluvparis]

At one point the Saints were $1.50 against us despite opening at above $2. Does that make backing them a good bet?

Absolutely

 

[SM]

Absolutely

Isn't that results-based analysis that you normally abhor?

Your narrative seems to change to suit whatever your point is on the day.

The Lions were massively overhyped by the market purely because Neale was in and any smart punter saw the Dees at bounce outside $2 as exceptional value. And guess what? They won the match. You can hang your hat on your "$1.15 at HT" return if you want.

 

[iluvparis]

Isn't that results-based analysis that you normally abhor?

Your narrative seems to change to suit whatever your point is on the day.

The Lions were massively overhyped by the market purely because Neale was in and any smart punter saw the Dees at bounce outside $2 as exceptional value. And guess what? They won the match. You can hang your hat on your "$1.15 at HT" return if you want.

Not sure how taking $1.15 shots at $2 is 'results based analysis'

The results based conclusions is you swanning in a week after the game finished and declaring them value - lel - as I said - enjoy your ban

 

[SM]

Not sure how taking $1.15 shots at $2 is 'results based analysis'

The results based conclusions is you swanning in a week after the game finished and declaring them value - lel - as I said - enjoy your ban

The specific example I just gave that you confirmed fits your ideology.

Where have I said I bet on the Dees? I haven't aftertimed, I'm having a discussion. The fact that the idea that you could be wrong about anything is unable to enter your head is just bizarre. Wake up to yourself.

 

[iluvparis]

The specific example I just gave that you confirmed fits your ideology.

Where have I said I bet on the Dees? I haven't aftertimed, I'm having a discussion. The fact that the idea that you could be wrong about anything is unable to enter your head is just bizarre. Wake up to yourself.

The Lions were massively overhyped by the market purely because Neale was in and any smart punter saw the Dees at bounce outside $2 as exceptional value.

This is the very definition of after timing - no surprise you fail to understand this