AFL 2021 AFL Round 13

[balmainforever]

 

[Sausage Legs]

Tiges 1.80. quickly into 1.68. prob still value. Eags have half a deck and lost a couple more on weekend.

 

[targett]

 

[iluvparis]

2U Rich @ 1.70 (uni) - this line is only going one way - will lay 1U off if it goes sub $1.50

 

[NYRB]

Eagles play the dimensions of Perth Stadium perfectly. Think need to see teams to confirm for me.

Richmond were impressive but feel like that extra week away from home in an unusual surrounding may get to them.


Also don't underestimate the value of the Perth and WA home crowd, that alone is worth a 4-5 goal advantage.

 

[iluvparis]

Also don't underestimate the value of the Perth and WA home crowd, that alone is worth a 4-5 goal advantage.

It's actually only worth a couple of goals at most.

 

[NYRB]

It's actually only worth a couple of goals at most.

Eagles reckon in front of 50,000+ crowd record at Perth stadium is pretty good. Just feel like they too will be up for the game. Eagles with a 20-5 record when they played in front of the crowd that size in Perth. It will be at worst an 85% pro-Eagles crowd.

I must admit I wrote the Eagles chances yesterdays with all their injuries and won't do that same mistake by writing them off at home. (even against a better opponent)

 

[iluvparis]

Eagles reckon in front of 50,000+ crowd record at Perth stadium is pretty good. Just feel like they too will be up for the game. Eagles with a 20-5 record when they played in front of the crowd that size in Perth. It will be at worst an 85% pro-Eagles crowd.

I must admit I wrote the Eagles chances yesterdays with all their injuries and won't do that same mistake by writing them off at home. (even against a better opponent)

yes the data accounts for all of that and concludes the advantage is generally around 2 goals

 

[NonPhixion]

GC +13.5
Lots of units

 

[targett]

View attachment 1149037

 

[Ohh Ok]

Quite bullish on a few teams this week.

suspecting a lot of line movement.

Will get some write ups later on at some point.
AFL Round 12 Record
W/L: 19-12
P/L: +22.9 units

AFL 2021 Record
W/L: 255-268
P/L: +144.39 units

5u - Sydney/Melbourne/GWS - $1.76 - 365

5u - Gold Coast +13.5 - $1.95 - PointsBet

5u - Adelaide +5.5 - $1.85 - PointsBet

4u - Richmond -5.5 - $1.91 - 365

1u - Port/Sydney/Gold Coast/Adelaide/GWS/Richmond/Melbourne - $32.10 - 365

 

[5 Bucks]

Pretty big head start for the Hawks. They'll be fresh and should run out the game well.

 

[iluvparis]

Pretty big head start for the Hawks. They'll be fresh and should run out the game well.

That also stood out to me as a big line but I have a rule of never betting on bad teams

 

[Ohh Ok]

Eagles play the dimensions of Perth Stadium perfectly. Think need to see teams to confirm for me.

Richmond were impressive but feel like that extra week away from home in an unusual surrounding may get to them.


Also don't underestimate the value of the Perth and WA home crowd, that alone is worth a 4-5 goal advantage.

The dimensions of Optus are almost identical to the MCG, which the Tigers also play fairly well

 

[Jugada]

The dimensions of Optus are almost identical to the MCG, which the Tigers also play fairly well

Not this year

 

[5 Bucks]

No Membrey
No Wood
King under a cloud
Missy missing everything

Either the Saints are going to struggle to kick a score, or Battle is going to kick a bag.

1U Ade SU $2

 

[5 Bucks]

The better King might outscore Fremantle this week. Odds won't be great but 4 should be his starting point and he might be looking at 6, 7, 8 if the Suns can get it in to him quickly.

 

[Atavistic]

No Membrey
No Wood
King under a cloud
Missy missing everything

The Saints are going to struggle to kick a score and Battle is going to kick 0.5.

Fixed.

 

[benji21]

Freo played well yesterday. I'm very bearish with my team normally but I wouldn't be jumping at gold coast too quickly. Few outs due injury but Pearce and Taberner most likely come in. Walter's will end up in the midfield to help if no fyfe. Gold coast 1 from 5 away this year.

 

[iluvparis]

Freo played well yesterday. I'm very bearish with my team normally but I wouldn't be jumping at gold coast too quickly. Few outs due injury but Pearce and Taberner most likely come in. Walter's will end up in the midfield to help if no fyfe. Gold coast 1 from 5 away this year.

They are both bad teams of about equal ability and the line currently reflects the HGA for the Dockers - could not touch this game with a 10,000 foot pole if you paid me.

 

[benji21]

They are both bad teams of about equal ability and the line currently reflects the HGA for the Dockers - could not touch this game with a 10,000 foot pole if you paid me.

Eloquently put as always.
But yeah it's a no bet for me.

 

[NYRB]

Walter's will end up in the midfield to help if no fyfe. Gold coast 1 from 5 away this year.

From what I have seen of Walters this season, I don't think he has quite the engine to play in midfield. Yes he is a fast player, and yes , he played good in the wet weather a few weeks back but I fancy opposition teams will like it, if he lines up in the middle.

I also don't think he is having that great a season compared to previous years.

 

[NYRB]

Odds to stay away from this early:

Franklin to Kick 3+ Goals at $1.40


Can;t be backing at those odds ..........

 

[NonPhixion]

Freo played well yesterday. I'm very bearish with my team normally but I wouldn't be jumping at gold coast too quickly. Few outs due injury but Pearce and Taberner most likely come in. Walter's will end up in the midfield to help if no fyfe. Gold coast 1 from 5 away this year.

Rowell, Day & Bowes all likely inclusions.
Fyfe, Darcy & Cox all out.
Line should get crunched in through the week from the opening 13.5 & open up a nice middle

 

[NYRB]

PointsBet early special for Geelong v Port Adelaide

Charlie Dixon to kick 1+ Goals and Port Adelaide to win

Odds: $3.00

whether either happens or not, is one thing but at those odds, it must be backed.