AFL 2021 AFL Round 13

[demon_fanatic]

My results tonight from my spread estimates:

For assumed $10 stakes

Dangerfield= UNDER 178 WIN= +$1,780
Dahlhaus= OVER 24 LOSS= -$240
Parfitt = NO PLAY
Robbie Gray = OVER 123 LOSS= -$1,230
Gary Rohan= NO PLAY
Joel Selwood= UNDER 69 WIN=+$690
Tom Hawkins= OVER 97 WIN=+$350
Sam Menegola= OVER 92 LOSS= -$920
Mitch Duncan= NO PLAY
Steve Motlop = OVER 42 LOSS=-$420
Conor Rozee= OVER 56 WIN= +$1,840
Georgiades= UNDER 53 WIN= +$410
Sam Powell-Pepper=NO PLAY
Charlie Dixon=OVER 71 WIN=+$690
Karl Amon= UNDER 65 WIN= +$650
Ollie Wines= NO PLAY
Travis Boak= UNDER 84 WIN=+$840

Net Result= +$4,440

Taking on midfielders comes with high volatility in the spreads, especially if determining if they can kick a goal or not.

Yeh this is what I was after mate,which players you took,I do spreads quite often ,will have to start looking into this market where I think some midfielders won't kick goals,don't have the bankroll to do $10 stake butnice profit by you that's nuts

 

[demon_fanatic]

Totals up 3-4 points for tommorow which is a good sign for my over bet of 154.5, don't know why it went up maybe hawthorns ins or the fact the rain will definitely be gone by morning and surface should be ok, I'm a bit worried now it'll be too clear at night that we will get dew,bring on the clouds please

 

[BloodRet]

Worpell 3+ (named HFF) @226 boosted on a small scg these kind of players can kick goals

 

[BloodRet]

Paul Hunter ags @3.70 topsport - big boi 200cm and presumably plays forward/ruck in rotation with Ryder

 

[demon_fanatic]

Paul Hunter ags @3.70 topsport - big boi 200cm and presumably plays forward/ruck in rotation with Ryder

He may be a spud but Saints will need Ryder's ruck craft vs O'Brien so hopefully this Hunter can clunk a mark within 10 m of the goal, $3.70 is a must play

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Freo's defence looks shabby, injuries have smashed them.

Conca (181cm) Pearce (201) Duman (193)

Aish (183) Ryan (187) Tucker (184)

That is a short back six. Not sure who their seventh defender is, but even if he's tall, the backline is still short overall.

Normally I'd load up on on the opposition's 2nd/3rd tall but neither Holman nor Burgess look likely.

Instead I like the GC tall midfielders, Greenwood (191) and Lukosius (195).

Greenwood has kicked a goal in five of his last eight matches (none last week).

Lukosius has only kicked three for the season but has hit the scoreboard the last four weeks straight.

Best AGS odds I can find are $3.25 (lads) for Lukosius and $2.40 (TAB) for Greenwood.

Also like Western, the debutant speedster for Freo, AGS paying $2.25 (unibet).

If one of these comes off, I'll be down a little. Two hit and I'm up a little. All three hit and it's a good day.

Also the multi is paying $15 on sb, with their 'lose one leg get bonus bet back' it's worth a nibble imho.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Think tab is offering great value on Crouch supercoach points vs old side Adelaide.. he should be fired up and the dewy conditions of Cairns will suit his contested style, coming off 38 touches and 141 supercoach points,126 the previous week, he's $2.05 for 100, $5 for 125 and a whopping $21 for 150 , he's also $11 to top the scoring with Steele and Laird his main dangers. I'm very confident he reaches 100 at least,also if it's dewy maybe less chance his somewhat haphazard disposal gets intercept marked as I think you lose points for ineffective kicks,also gone 7,10,6,9 tackles past month, likely to line up on Sloane so should rack up some good points this way before the disposals come into it

 

[benji21]

Isn't there dew point in AccuWeather forecast aka if the dew point is 9 it needs to be around that temperature or lower to create a few enough to affect game? Eg tommorow In Sydney I think it's 7 dew point but 10-11 overnight temperature so dew unlikely to affect game,but I guess if it's totally clear and no wind the dew could still hit ??

not exactly, dew is normally created by radiation cooling If I remember right, so needs particular conditions, generally condition in a high pressure system. Dew point is a decent guide but doesn't tell you everything.

 

[Atavistic]

Anyone like Berry for a goal? 2.37 AGS and has kicked a goal in his last three matches.

 

[Robo87]

Anyone like Berry for a goal? 2.37 AGS and has kicked a goal in his last three matches.

At HF, yea you could back him for ags, not a bad pick, dont mind it.

 

[Pacman82]

Tonight:

Buddy 2+
Parker
Heeney
Papley
McDonald
Hayward
Kennedy
@23 ts


Tomorrow:

Freo 1-39
Mundy 3+
Lobb 2+
@68 sb

 

[md20]

Time to expose myself as a fraud after last nights fluke.

W. Hayward 2+
J. Koschitzke 2+
T. Mitchell Most Disposals Gr1
$17 boosted (SB)

I. Heeney Most Goals
T. Mitchell Most Disposals Gr 1
L. Breust 2+
$44.50 boosted (SB)

 

[FrankGrimes]

I’m on the pap train for tonight, rozzee has inspired him to show he’s the best small around, 6+ At @81

 

[The_Steadier]

Serong looks value here for most possies in this group presuming he'll be let off the chain with fyfe out?

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Worpel AGS
Parker AGS
Wicks AGS
Rowbottom 20+
Dawson 20+
Papley 15+
$20 @ $161

 

[md20]

View attachment 1152130

Serong looks value here for most possies in this group presuming he'll be let off the chain with fyfe out?

I like Lukosius and the price they are giving him. But agree there is value in Serong at $8.50. Bookies must believe Walters will benefit from Fyfe out if they are pricing him shorter than Serong

Not sure how much TOG he will get coming back from injury but its possible Rowell takes mid time/disposals away from Anderson and Swallow.

EDIT: I take this back and tailing you on Serong. Bowes comes back in which potentially affects Lukosius.

 

[NonPhixion]

Rekon the big Bud will put on a clinic against the Hawks tonight. Can see Sydney feeding him too.
5+ $4.90
6+ $9.75 TS

 

[dontlimitme]

Time to expose myself as a fraud after last nights fluke.

W. Hayward 2+
J. Koschitzke 2+
T. Mitchell Most Disposals Gr1
$17 boosted (SB)

I. Heeney Most Goals
T. Mitchell Most Disposals Gr 1
L. Breust 2+
$44.50 boosted (SB)

you gotta ride the hot hand!! tailed!

 

[md20]

you gotta ride the hot hand!! tailed!

Also won $11 on the powerball last night when I usually win jack shit so im on fire atm

 

[NYRB]

PointsBet Stat Multiplier (Goals x Kicks x Handballs):

Will have a think about the tips and post them about 30 minutes before game time.....

Think the Bud can kick at least 3 goals or more tonight, not sure if he can snag 4. Conditions in Sydney are the coldest on record from what I am hearing? Their maximum temperature yesterday reached 10.3 degrees C, lowest in 37 years. Frost and CJ can match him for size and athleticism at the back and there is the potential for him to get double teamed. It might be better to look elsewhere for goals for Sydney.

Stat Multiplier Records in 2021:

RECORD IN 2021		Occurrences		Occurrences		Occurrences
FRANKLIN	UNDER 93	4​	93-109	2​	OVER 109	3​
HEENEY	UNDER 140	8​	140-164	1​	OVER 164	1​
PARKER	UNDER 92	6​	92-108		OVER 108	6​
PAPLEY	UNDER 77	10​	77-91	1​	OVER 91	1​
JOSH KENNEDY	UNDER 64	11​	64-76		OVER 76	1​
DAWSON	UNDER 47	12​	47-55		OVER 55
HAYWARD	UNDER 46	10​	46-54		OVER 54	2​
FLORENT	UNDER 41	8​	41-49		OVER 49	4​
WICKS	UNDER 30	9​	30-36		OVER 36	3​
ROWBOTTOM	UNDER 26	5​	26-32		OVER 32	3​
TOM MITCHELL	UNDER 58	10​	58-68		OVER 68	1​
OMEARA	UNDER 46	7​	46-58		OVER 58	1​
DYLAN MOORE	UNDER 44	5​	44-52		OVER 52	6​
WORPEL	UNDER 41	9​	41-49		OVER 49	2​
LIAM SHIELS	UNDER 34	8​	34-40		OVER 40	2​

 

[demon_fanatic]

Morning Lads, tab look like they have made a bit of an error in Most Disp markets for Syd vs Hawks. Will Day is $8 in Group B whereas all other corps have him that price in Group A! Sportsbet are 1.57 (25+) and 3 (30+) so off that he should be group b fav

Can't see the market

 

[FrankGrimes]

Can't see the market

Looks like its ben fixed

 

[The_Steadier]

Morning Lads, tab look like they have made a bit of an error in Most Disp markets for Syd vs Hawks. Will Day is $8 in Group B whereas all other corps have him that price in Group A! Sportsbet are 1.57 (25+) and 3 (30+) so off that he should be group b fav

Great find cheers, I got on at $7 before they took the market down.

Your generosity in sharing is a great example for all.

 

[Prochard123]

Hawks vs Swans

1. Parker over 26.5 possessions/over 97.5 DT (80% weighed towards the disposal line)
2. Mills over 26.5 possessions/over 108.5 DT (80% weighed towards the disposal line)
3. Lloyd over 24.5 possessions
4. Mitchell under 33.5 possessions
5. Worpel under 22.5 possessions

All at the lines except for Lloyd

 

[jikost]

Freo's defence looks shabby, injuries have smashed them.

Conca (181cm) Pearce (201) Duman (193)

Aish (183) Ryan (187) Tucker (184)

That is a short back six. Not sure who their seventh defender is, but even if he's tall, the backline is still short overall.

Normally I'd load up on on the opposition's 2nd/3rd tall but neither Holman nor Burgess look likely.

Instead I like the GC tall midfielders, Greenwood (191) and Lukosius (195).

Greenwood has kicked a goal in five of his last eight matches (none last week).

Lukosius has only kicked three for the season but has hit the scoreboard the last four weeks straight.

Best AGS odds I can find are $3.25 (lads) for Lukosius and $2.40 (TAB) for Greenwood.

Also like Western, the debutant speedster for Freo, AGS paying $2.25 (unibet).

If one of these comes off, I'll be down a little. Two hit and I'm up a little. All three hit and it's a good day.

Also the multi is paying $15 on sb, with their 'lose one leg get bonus bet back' it's worth a nibble imho.

Like Greenwood. Rowell's inclusion and the short Freo backline could see him push forward for extended stints. Also on for 2 and 3+.