AFL 2021 AFL Round 14

[BloodRet]

Kaiden coleman against a north melbourne rabble 4, 5+ @51, 226. Over 80% fwd heatmap last 3 games

Riccardi if named and plays fwd coming off 8 goals in the reserves 4, 5+ @37, 141

Can boost Dahlaus to a silly @1001 for 4+, against his old side worth a crack if he keeps his spot

Miers due back with decent odds also 4, 5+ @69, 474

dontlimitme these boosts are a hack sometimes. I understand sportsbets logic is to allow it so it tempts more people to bet on more players because the odds are so good, but it has potential to blow up in their face if you stay particular as we've seen already in here. Then again im betting on luke shithaus the *in leprechaun to kick 4 goals so who am I kidding. Sportsbet you've scalped another one

 

[ShaunWDT]

Theres more chance of North winning the flag than Dahlhaus kicking 4, save your money.

 

[md20]

Dan McStay 4,5,6+ $152 boosted.

No reason why he should. But Bruce, De Goey and Fritsch have kicked bags of 6 or more against North this season so thats enough for me.

 

[jikost]

Kaiden coleman against a north melbourne rabble 4, 5+ @51, 226. Over 80% fwd heatmap last 3 games

Riccardi if named and plays fwd coming off 8 goals in the reserves 4, 5+ @37, 141

Can boost Dahlaus to a silly @1001 for 4+, against his old side worth a crack if he keeps his spot

Miers due back with decent odds also 4, 5+ @69, 474

dontlimitme these boosts are a hack sometimes. I understand sportsbets logic is to allow it so it tempts more people to bet on more players because the odds are so good, but it has potential to blow up in their face if you stay particular as we've seen already in here. Then again im betting on luke shithaus the fu**in leprechaun to kick 4 goals so who am I kidding. Sportsbet you've scalped another one

Yeah, the SGM thing is a bit of double edged sword. I hadn't used it until last week and the addict inside me was hooked immediately. The problem is the odds are so enticing for players to kick 4,5,6+ that you end up chucking a few dollars on almost anyone with 2 functioning legs. Xerri, Battle, Dahlhaus, you name it. It wasn't until yesterday that I realised my SB account took a beating... those small wagers add up. Might take it easy and just put 50 cents on Dahlhaus to kick 4.

 

[NYRB]

unusual question to ask but do the Roos stay in Hobart this week, or do they come back up to Melbourne for rest then back to Hobart for Round 14?

 

[NYRB]

Ground familiarity should be a big factor in Essendon v Hawks, Essendon not played a home and away fixture there. Not a fan of the Hawks play, but I think their odds come in a bit closer on game day.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Yeah, the SGM thing is a bit of double edged sword. I hadn't used it until last week and the addict inside me was hooked immediately. The problem is the odds are so enticing for players to kick 4,5,6+ that you end up chucking a few dollars on almost anyone with 2 functioning legs. Xerri, Battle, Dahlhaus, you name it. It wasn't until yesterday that I realised my SB account took a beating... those small wagers add up. Might take it easy and just put 50 cents on Dahlhaus to kick 4.

Bankroll management and responsible staking is key to be profitable long term

 

[FrankGrimes]

Quiet board this round investors, has battle killed everybody??

 

[Robo87]

tempted with Bailey- has been on fire for Lions lately with 11.1 in his last 4 games - surely the coach has given him license to keep having shots for goal whenever he wants to drift fwd
2g+ @2.20 lads
3g+ @4.80 lads
4g+ @13 lads

Kaiden coleman against a north melbourne rabble 4, 5+ @51, 226. Over 80% fwd heatmap last 3 games

i was looking at him again too. kicked 1g in last 5/6 games.. it feels a stretch backing him for anything more than 2/3g tho...
2u coleman ags @1.85 lads
1u coleman 2g+ @5.25 lads
0.5u coleman 3g+ @13 sb

then theres Charlie, that i dont mind either - he averages 3 scoring shots per game, but i rekon he'll get 4 or 5 scoring shots vs roos..
1.2u 3g+ @2.90 tab
0.5u 4g+ @6 tab
0.3u 5g+ @15 tab

 

[FrankGrimes]

tempted with Bailey- has been on fire for Lions lately with 11.1 in his last 4 games - surely the coach has given him license to keep having shots for goal whenever he wants to drift fwd
2g+ @2.20 lads
3g+ @4.80 lads
4g+ @13 lads


i was looking at him again too. kicked 1g in last 5/6 games.. it feels a stretch backing him for anything more than 2/3g tho...
2u coleman ags @1.85 lads
1u coleman 2g+ @5.25 lads
0.5u coleman 3g+ @13 sb

then theres Charlie, that i dont mind either - he averages 3 scoring shots per game, but i rekon he'll get 4 or 5 scoring shots vs roos..
1.2u 3g+ @2.90 tab
0.5u 4g+ @6 tab
0.3u 5g+ @15 tab

If hipwood kicks straight he might snag 5 or 6... or Joey might unleash and snag 4 or 5?

 

[Robo87]

If hipwood kicks straight he might snag 5 or 6... or Joey might unleash and snag 4 or 5?

yea might have to check for a matchup weakness once teams are announced.. lions gs vary so much.. the other week robinson decided to kick 4, he hadnt kicked a goal all year!

 

[mouncey2franklin]

If sportsbet have outsmarted dontlimitme, myself, and all of the other degenerates who have been taking advantage of the goalkicker sgm 'cheat code', then all I can say is, touche sportsbet, touche.

I've been using the cheat code for the past two weeks, don't think a single bet has come good.

You got me.

But I'll be back for more.

 

[md20]

K. Coleman does his best work creating goals.
As Robo87 stated, I cant see him kicking more than 3 goals as he will hand a few off or look to even when hes in a position to have a shot.
You never know though!

 

[Thedeftouch]

Interesting that GC line has come in by a full goal to 13.5.

Suns will be competitive at home with Collins back and Rowell (likely) with some match fitness. Will certainly be the strongest lineup they have fielded this season

 

[Ohh Ok]

1.5u - Either team win 1-24 - $1.77 - Ladbrokes
1.25u - Geelong 1-39 - $2.20 - Ladbrokes
Expecting a hotly contested battle for this one, with the winning team to scrape over the line. Potentially a wet game which should see the total drop and the two teams become closer together. Geelong are almost at full strength now, on a 5 game winning streak and get to play at their home ground in which they haven’t lost at 4 times in their last 33 games there. Geelong forwards should match up well on the dogs. Expecting Danger to be better after having a game under his belt and the return of Guthrie to be a big boost. Still rate the dogs class up forward and in the midfield. Cats in a close one. Stakes split to cover an upset win from the dogs.

4u - Dangerfield AGS - $1.83 - SB
Dangerfield, who has stated that he isn’t fully fit, is going to be eased back into his footy after a lengthy lay off and will likely spend more time forward, especially with the return of Guthrie. Danger will match up well on the Bulldogs defenders and be willing also be powerful at any forward stoppages. He goaled in 11/21 games in 2020 (shortened quarters), 19/24 in 2019. Has kicked goals in 6/7 games against the dogs since joining Geelong, the only miss coming last year. On the weekend he attended 59% of centre bounces compared to 74% in round 1 when he entered the game as a fully fit full time mid.

5u - Parfitt, Duryea 15+, Stewart 20+ disposals- $2.10 - SB

3u - Bris win/North +45.5 - $1.92 - Ladbrokes
We’ve seen teams struggle off the bye over the years, and whilst I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of the GWS/North game of the weekend, I do expect Brisbane to start off this one a bit sluggish. North play Blundstone incredibly well and have won 16 of 24 since they started playing there in 2012. It’s a strong HGA for them having led majority of the game on the weekend and 2.5 quarters vs the Dees. North starting to get healthy and could potentially add McDonald back to their line up, an outside chance for the weekend. Brisbane have their own mini injury crisis in defence with Gardner, Lester, Payne all set to miss leaving the door ajar for a North forward to have a solid day out.

5u - Greene, Haynes, Newman 15+ disposals, Cumming 20+ disposals - $2.80 - SB

 

[jikost]

Matt Flynn 1-6 goals = 2001-1. Choo choo, motherf***ers!

Won't get up, but those odds are fantastic.

Think Flynn will be no.1 ruck with Mumford out. Briggs to play the froward/ruck role.

I like Johannisen to kick a goal @ 2.90 tab. Has had 2 scoring shots in 3 of his past 4 matches.

 

[BloodRet]

Think Flynn will be no.1 ruck with Mumford out. Briggs to play the froward/ruck role.

I like Johannisen to kick a goal @ 2.90 tab. Has had 2 scoring shots in 3 of his past 4 matches.

@11 for briggs to kick 3 when they'll probably share the load? Has this briggs fella even kicked a goal in his life? * sportsbet are stingy. Was hoping to see something like 30 for 3

 

[jikost]

@11 for briggs to kick 3 when they'll probably share the load? Has this briggs fella even kicked a goal in his life? fu** sportsbet are stingy. Was hoping to see something like 30 for 3

Yeah, that's a garbage price. Bloke has played one game this year and didn't even have a shot on goal. Honestly should be like $2.60 for 1 and 11 for 2.

Meanwhile, I notice Josh Walker is named at CHF again. Nice try Noble... are sportsbet paying you a commission for every Walker goal bet? Not falling for that s**t again.

 

[jikost]

Ben McEvoy AGS @ $2.00 lads. Was parked forward against Sydney and it looks like Hawthorn are going with the same set-up again with Ceglar taking the majority of the ruck contests. McEvoy named FF.

 

[BloodRet]

Ladhams 2, 3, 4+ @4.90, 16, 54 ts

Plays fwd when Lycett is in the team

Dahlaus 2 Hannan 2 @111 sb

Daniher 2+
Ladhams
Dahlaus
Hannan
Day
Zurhaar
@42 ts

Ladhams 2
Dahlaus
Owies
Mcevoy
@44 ts

Go on Dahlaus kick one against your old side you know you want to lil man

Ben McEvoy AGS @ $2.00 lads. Was parked forward against Sydney and it looks like Hawthorn are going with the same set-up again with Ceglar taking the majority of the ruck contests. McEvoy named FF.

Tailed 2-5

 

[NYRB]

PointsBet Stat Multiplier for Geelong v Western Bulldogs (Kicks x Goals x Handballs):


The Spreads are:


Patrick Dangerfield 110-129
Mitch Duncan 118-138
Tom Hawkins 86-102
Sam Menegola 73-85
Cameron Guthrie 60-70
Zac Tuohy 57-67
Joel Selwood 53-63
Brandan Parfitt 39-47
Gary Rohan 34-40
Luke Dahlhaus 20-24
Lachie Hunter 101-119
Jack Macrae 96-112
Bailey Smith 67-79
Tom Liberatore 66-78
Josh Bruce 60-70
Tim English 49-59
Aaron Naughton 39-47
Jason Johannisen 26-32


Their records in 2021:

IN 2021:		OCCURRENCES		OCCURRENCES		OCCURRENCES	SEASON AVERAGE MULTIPLIER
DANGERFIELD	UNDER 110	3​	110-129		OVER 129		0.00​
MITCH DUNCAN	UNDER 118	7​	118-138		OVER 138	3​	94.67​
TOM HAWKINS	UNDER 86	7​	86-102		OVER 102	5​	124.83​
SAM MENEGOLA	UNDER 73	6​	73-85		OVER 85	4​	74.60​
CAMERON GUTHRIE	UNDER 60	8​	60-70		OVER 70	2​	45.20​
ZAC TUOHY	UNDER 57	7​	57-67		OVER 67	4​	64.55​
JOEL SELWOOD	UNDER 53	11​	53-63		OVER 63	1​	29.33​
BRANDAN PARFITT	UNDER 39	8​	39-47		OVER 47	3​	33.09​
GARY ROHAN	UNDER 34	4​	34-40		OVER 40	6​	76.50​
LUKE DALHAUS	UNDER 20	8​	20-24		OVER 24	3​	18.18​
LACHIE HUNTER	UNDER 101	8​	101-119		OVER 119	3​	58.45​
JACK MACRAE	UNDER 96	10​	96-112		OVER 112	2​	55.91​
BAILEY SMITH	UNDER 67	9​	67-79		OVER 79	3​	80.17​
TOM LIBERATORE	UNDER 66	7​	66-78	1​	OVER 78	4​	78.83​
JOSH BRUCE	UNDER 60	10​	60-70		OVER 70	2​	114.58​
TIM ENGLISH	UNDER 49	5​	49-59		OVER 59	3​	77.88​
AARON NAUGHTON	UNDER 39	1​	39-47	3​	OVER 47	8​	77.33​
JASON JOHANNISEN	UNDER 26	8​	26-32	1​	OVER 32	2​	17.00​
MARCUS BONTEMPELLI	UNDER 150	5​	150-175	1​	OVER 175	6​	257.50​

Surprised how good the Bont is going this season.- that is a massive multiplier average. I will post my tips about an hour before the game......

 

[Robo87]

Ladhams 2, 3, 4+ @4.90, 16, 54 ts
Plays fwd when Lycett is in the team

like it, think he takes injured marshalls spot up forward. tickets bought.
2u 2g+@4.90 TS
1u 3g+@16 TS
0.5u 4g+ @54 TS

 

[NYRB]

With it expected to rain tonight, feel like that home ground advantage to Geelong will be worth a bit more. Reading multiple different weather sites, and getting contrasting views. But I will trust the Geelong BOM.

Will avoid the worst part of the rain tonight. Though its expected to rain pre-game and after-game.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

With it expected to rain tonight, feel like that home ground advantage to Geelong will be worth a bit more. Reading multiple different weather sites, and getting contrasting views. But I will trust the Geelong BOM.

Will avoid the worst part of the rain tonight. Though its expected to rain pre-game and after-game.

No rain tonight. Showers will clear by late afternoon.

 

[5 Bucks]

Rain is overrated. Dogs played in the rain in Ballarat and still managed to have 23 scoring shots (Naughton 2.5, English 3.3) but Geelong's defensive gameplay cannot be ignored. They've given up 9 or less goals in 7 of their last 10 matches and it wasn't because of rain.