AFL 2021 AFL Round 14

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J. Macrae Most Disp. Gr 1 - $2.30 (SB and TS)
Anything over $2 is value IMO. A Bulldogs player has had the most disposals in 12/12 games this season. Macrae going 9/12 games.

P. Dangerfield Most Goals Gr 1
J. Macrae Most Disp. Gr 1
$118 (SB)
 
I like Cameron for goals. This season so far: 5/7 for 3+, 2/7 for 5+.

Best odds I can find are TAB, 3+ @ $2.25, 4+ @ $4, 5+ @ $8.50, 6+ @ $21

All look like over to me, especially considering his two big hauls this year were against Richmond and Port Adelaide.

Can dominate good teams.

Here's to hoping he can get my weekend off to a decent start.
 

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J. Macrae Most Disp. Gr 1 - $2.30 (SB and TS)
Anything over $2 is value IMO. A Bulldogs player has had the most disposals in 12/12 games this season. Macrae going 9/12 games.

P. Dangerfield Most Goals Gr 1
J. Macrae Most Disp. Gr 1
$118 (SB)

Only worry is O’Connor tag. Been probably the best tagger this season.

Had scalps of:
Neale 16 disposals
Mitchell 24 disposals
T.Kelly 16 disposals
Boak 27 disposals (14 to 3qrt time with O’Connor hard tagging him).

Macrae has made me a tonne of money this year on disposals just slightly worried about that tag.

Surely goes to Bont or Libba though. I just think it Macrae is having influence and getting off the chain he’ll get moved onto him at some point.
 
Only worry is O’Connor tag. Been probably the best tagger this season.

Had scalps of:
Neale 16 disposals
Mitchell 24 disposals
T.Kelly 16 disposals
Boak 27 disposals (14 to 3qrt time with O’Connor hard tagging him).

Macrae has made me a tonne of money this year on disposals just slightly worried about that tag.

Surely goes to Bont or Libba though. I just think it Macrae is having influence and getting off the chain he’ll get moved onto him at some point.

I think O’Connor will go to Libba, he’s the leading clearance getter for the dogs and he’s struggled to play well whilst being tagged the last few rounds, if Geelong can take him out of the game they’ll dominate in the middle.
 

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1.5u - Cameron 15+ disposals - $2.80 - SB
0.5u - Cameron 20+ disposals - $10 - SB
Not ideal conditions, but happy to have a bit in this. Bulldogs undersized defence means Cameron should be freed up to move them around the ground and take marks. Based on his time at GWS (cats play a similar style) this should be more of a 50/50 bet rather than what the odds are stating. Solid history vs the Dogs, and will likely still hold a bit of that GWS vs Dogs fire.

2.5u - Guthrie most disposals group D - $1.80 - PointsBet
Bontempelli likely to get tagged for periods. Dale collects most of his disposals on the outside, conditions and Geelong’s play style will make it tough for players to accumulate on the outside. Tuohy not a big accumulator and collects most his on the outside. Guthrie been a ball magnet this year and will get to work all night. Will suit the contested style of the match.

2.5u - Ladhams AGS - $1.74 - TopSport
1.25u - Ladhams 2+ goals - $4.30 - TopSport
0.5u - Ladhams 3+ goals - $14 - TopSport
There’s a fair chance that if Marshall wasn’t out due to concussion Ladhams wouldn’t be playing this week. Scott Lycett returns from suspension and assumes the number one ruck role meaning Ladhams is pushed forward into Marshall’s role. Marshall has kicked 12 goals from 8 games meaning there is some slack available to be picked up. If Ladhams wants to continue his stay in the side he’ll require a few goals.
 
1.5u - Cameron 15+ disposals - $2.80 - SB
0.5u - Cameron 20+ disposals - $10 - SB
Not ideal conditions, but happy to have a bit in this. Bulldogs undersized defence means Cameron should be freed up to move them around the ground and take marks. Based on his time at GWS (cats play a similar style) this should be more of a 50/50 bet rather than what the odds are stating. Solid history vs the Dogs, and will likely still hold a bit of that GWS vs Dogs fire.

2.5u - Guthrie most disposals group D - $1.80 - PointsBet
Bontempelli likely to get tagged for periods. Dale collects most of his disposals on the outside, conditions and Geelong’s play style will make it tough for players to accumulate on the outside. Tuohy not a big accumulator and collects most his on the outside. Guthrie been a ball magnet this year and will get to work all night. Will suit the contested style of the match.

2.5u - Ladhams AGS - $1.74 - TopSport
1.25u - Ladhams 2+ goals - $4.30 - TopSport
0.5u - Ladhams 3+ goals - $14 - TopSport
There’s a fair chance that if Marshall wasn’t out due to concussion Ladhams wouldn’t be playing this week. Scott Lycett returns from suspension and assumes the number one ruck role meaning Ladhams is pushed forward into Marshall’s role. Marshall has kicked 12 goals from 8 games meaning there is some slack available to be picked up. If Ladhams wants to continue his stay in the side he’ll require a few goals.

Ladhams has shortened significantly - 1.38, 2.74 and 6.50
 
Any SGM tips for tonight? Pointsbet still have the free hit SGM cashback

Geelong h2h
Macrae o/33.5
Stewart o/20
Selwood o/20
Daniel o/20
Liberatore o/20
Cameron anytime goal
Naughton anytime goal
Bruce anytime goal
Hawkins anytime goal
=$6.84 Boosted at $7.87
 
Geelong h2h
Duryea 15+
Daniel 20+
Stewart 20+
Dangerfield 20+

$4.50
 
Geelong hour by hour weather shows basically no rain From 6pm so I'm gathering surface be ok by bounce? Total could go well over if Geelong adopt an attacking approach,the commentary talked about this last week how they really played attacking vs top teams Richmond and then at port Adelaide,yet against bottom teams just Happy to go slow n steady and bank the win.. all depends what Geelong feel like doing tonight. A total of 146.5 with weapons like Hawkins, Cameron, Naughton just seems appealing with weather going to be ok,ill wait an hour the rain continues maybe bookies lower it another point or two
 
Down to 144.5, think bookies aren't looking at the radar rain around geelong but Melbourne,look it might turn into a close struggle but lowering the Total Because of the rain is off track 😉
 
Down to 144.5, think bookies aren't looking at the radar rain around geelong but Melbourne,look it might turn into a close struggle but lowering the Total Because of the rain is off track 😉
* I already cashed out my under 100.5 bet. Should have waited. Why the * is the total still dropping? There will be zero rain.
 
Down to 144.5, think bookies aren't looking at the radar rain around geelong but Melbourne,look it might turn into a close struggle but lowering the Total Because of the rain is off track 😉
Pretty sure bookies when talking $$$ aren’t that stupid just to look at Melbourne radar, ground could be slippery af? It is cold and shitty in Melbourne at the moment
 
1.5u - Cameron 15+ disposals - $2.80 - SB
0.5u - Cameron 20+ disposals - $10 - SB
Not ideal conditions, but happy to have a bit in this. Bulldogs undersized defence means Cameron should be freed up to move them around the ground and take marks. Based on his time at GWS (cats play a similar style) this should be more of a 50/50 bet rather than what the odds are stating.
Solid history vs the Dogs, and will likely still hold a bit of that GWS vs Dogs fire.

I'm pretty sure someone called into SEN last night and said Cameron has never kicked a goal against WB so I just looked it up he was so wrong.
Cameron VS Bulldogs: 11 games
5, 3.1, 3.2, 3, 5.2, 0.1, 4.1, 6.3, 2.3, 1.
 

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