AFL 2021 AFL Round 18

[balmainforever]

 

[Robo87]

first thoughts:
geelong line -11.5
Sydney line -10.5 (will make top8 imo)
wb win.
dees win.
port to bounce back and win v a bottom 10 team like they normally do after a loss to a top 8 team. lol port

WC to Smash us(adel) on the WC line -8.5 and WC40+ worth a nibble, WC have been bad but still a better team on paper than adelaide atm.
we are dropping off our enegry as the season is going on plus i think doedee wont be able to play due to concussion last week - that will hurt our defense even more.. talls of WC fwd line 'should' capitalise. may look at backing kennedy and allen for 3 and 4 goals each.

 

[jikost]

Another beautiful day expected in Ballarat this Saturday for the GWS - Gold Coast matchup. Maximum of 8 degrees, possible hail, 100% chance of showers and 40 km/h winds. The breeze pretty much blows straight down the ground so just back whichever side is kicking with the hail each quarter.

 

[NYRB]

Freo in good enough form, and think they would have learnt a lesson playing Geelong last year in 2020. I'll wait and see for teams closer to game day but this is a real prime time game and I think they will lift for it.

Anything above evens a decent enough bet for me.

 

[Jugada]

Freo in good enough form, and think they would have learnt a lesson playing Geelong last year in 2020. I'll wait and see for teams closer to game day but this is a real prime time game and I think they will lift for it.

Anything above evens a decent enough bet for me.

Massive step up in class to what they have been taking on the last month.

6 of their 8 wins have come against the bottom 5 teams. They look the absolute clear pick of those around the fringe of the 8 to drop right out over the remainder of the year

 

[BloodRet]

Geelong
Swans -10.5
Bulldogs
Port
Essendon
West Coast
@16.5

 

[iluvparis]

I know fading Carlton is just printing money but this is the type of game late in the year we normally treat as our 'grand final', win by 13-18 points, and then think we are a top 4 contender next year because of it.

 

[NYRB]

A multi starting today

Ashton Turner to top score in the Australian innings in the 3rd T20 against the West Indies & Fremantle to Win over Geelong

Odds: 20.64 (Boosted to 22.79)

 

[NYRB]

Anyway watching last weeks round, I like the idea of weather influencing games. Whilst the games were mostly low scoring, they were mostly tight and exciting.

2 games at Marvel where you had an open roof, a game in Ballarat where you had swirly winds, and a game in drenching rain last night. eg the game in Ballarat, the team going against the wind- had to defend for the majority of the quarter against that 5-6 goal wind advantage. So there is a tactic element , not just an all-out attack thinking.

Having weather element of games makes it a tad unpredictable , and I guess in a way it reminisces of footy back in the mid 90's.


Alot of games played on these perfect surfaces, makes the game too predictable and would struggle to attract the neutrals (or people who don't have bets on it) to watch. When Teams are leading by a certain margin on the perfect surfaces, they often play to the time remaining, go sideways, go backwards etc. Last nights game , metres gained was important, and there was very little going backwards. The Eagles struggled to adjust, they are more a dry weather footy side than wet weather.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Sydney line -10.5 (will make top8 imo)
wb win.

Big call. 1.05

 

[Pacman82]

StK 1-39 @2.50 looks tempting, playing at home & coming off a 6 goal win against the Lions.. @9 for 40+

 

[Robo87]

Big call. 1.05

Haha, i should have said I can't see them missing top 8. Sry

 

[Pacman82]

StK 40+
Membrey 2+
Georgiades 2+
@52 Neds boost

 

[GodAmongstMen]

can;t beliee west coast lost lasst night lost everyhting feel sick
wish i was dead

 

[NYRB]

Massive step up in class to what they have been taking on the last month.

6 of their 8 wins have come against the bottom 5 teams. They look the absolute clear pick of those around the fringe of the 8 to drop right out over the remainder of the year

FREMANTLE, 7th. 8-8 record, 97.3%
Top 8 teams remaining: 4
Bottom 8 teams remaining: 2
Home games remaining: 4
Away games remaining: 2
Geelong (H)
Sydney (A)
Richmond (H)
Brisbane (H)
West Coast (H)
St Kilda (A)

Geelong is a 40:60 game
Sydney also another 40:60 game
Richmond possible win
Brisbane at home is a 35:65 game
WCE is coin toss
St.Kilda at the moment also looks like a coin toss


probably if you looked at this draw 1 month ago, it would have been daunting but given the struggles of WCE, Richmond , its not as daunting as it seems now. An 11-11 record may be enough to scrap you in this year given how tight the standings are. The game against Sydney most likely will be played on a neutral ground, and Freo beat them earlier in the year.

I wouldn't have fancied Freo to beat Sydney at the SCG. But if you play that somewhere in Melbourne, preferably MCG, I'd give them a real shot. If you play it in Geelong, you probably would fancy Sydney- given their record there.

 

[NYRB]

Also think GWS have the hardest road home.

With the current NSW/ACT covid extended to possibly at least 4 weeks. Their games against Power and Geelong most likely will be played in Victoria.

I also doubt the AFL has the money to relocate a GWS v Port Adelaide , GWS V Geelong game to say QLD/WA/Tas due to the money and logistics. Also again money talks in this situation, playing in Victoria and not having to have them shuffle around means I reckon they stay in Victoria for the time being. You can also maximise crowds as much as possible. (eg 20,000-25,000). A GWS V Port Adelaide game, played in Adelaide, would be a huge disadvantage to the Giants.

GWS, 10th. 7-8-1 record. 97.2%
Premiership points vs Freo: -2 points
Percentage vs Freo: -0.1%
For / Against vs Freo: -2 points
Top 8 teams remaining: 3
Bottom 8 teams remaining: 3
Home games remaining: 3
Away games remaining: 3
Sydney (H)
Essendon (A)
Port Adelaide (H)
Geelong (A)
Richmond (H)
Carlton (A)

 

[iluvparis]

I have 6 teams ending up separated by a total of 4 points for the last two spots in the 8 - good luck picking which two they are from here given the current randomness of results we have seen the last two weeks.

 

[Atavistic]

Perkins kicked 3.3 last week. He's 3.25 for AGS at Neds. 2+@11 and 3+@34 at SB.

 

[mozz23]

Perkins kicked 3.3 last week. He's 3.25 for AGS at Neds. 2+@11 and 3+@34 at SB.

Came to post the same thing.

has only kicked a goal in 3/14 games but has had at least one scoring shot in 9/14. Should get a few chances against north but his accuracy has let him down so far.

good value at $3.25

 

[iluvparis]

Came to post the same thing.

has only kicked a goal in 3/14 games but has had at least one scoring shot in 9/14. Should get a few chances against north but his accuracy has let him down so far.

good value at $3.25

It's been too long since I tried to spike another Gulden

On for 3+ @ $34

 

[burge13]

Perkins kicked 3.3 last week. He's 3.25 for AGS at Neds. 2+@11 and 3+@34 at SB.

He's not playing us this week

That said if you SGM, ags/2/3 together i get $88 powerplayed

 

[dontlimitme]

Another beautiful day expected in Ballarat this Saturday for the GWS - Gold Coast matchup. Maximum of 8 degrees, possible hail, 100% chance of showers and 40 km/h winds. The breeze pretty much blows straight down the ground so just back whichever side is kicking with the hail each quarter.

129 points in the suns-gws matchup at ballarat last week, so going on this going to bet all of these on SB and hopefully total comes in and maybe a decent cash out/check out weather on the day to let it ride

under 100.5 @ 31
under 105.5 @ 18
under 110.5 @ 11
under 115.5 @ 8

 

[dontlimitme]

129 points in the suns-gws matchup at ballarat last week, so going on this going to bet all of these on SB and hopefully total comes in and maybe a decent cash out/check out weather on the day to let it ride

under 100.5 @ 31
under 105.5 @ 18
under 110.5 @ 11
under 115.5 @ 8

this is for GWS vs swans

 

[Atavistic]

He's not playing us this week

That said if you SGM, ags/2/3 together i get $88 powerplayed

Are you suggesting Adelaide aren't very good?

Anyway, I think a six-day break for North off the back of a wet weather game in Perth is going to make it hard for them to back it up.

 

[burge13]

Are you suggesting Adelaide aren't very good?

Anyway, I think a six-day break for North off the back of a wet weather game in Perth is going to make it hard for them to back it up.

I'm truly baffled we've won > 3 games. Yeah, it's a fair enough bet. Just pointing out it won't be as pathetic an effort as we put up and you can boost the odds