AFL 2021 AFL Round 2

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Castagna 2 goals
Liam Ryan 2 goals
Toby Greene 2 goals
@7.56

First goal scorer promo
Jr8 @9’s
Josh Kennedy 8.50
Toby Greene @10’s
 
3u - O’Meara over 25.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365

A favourable match up, with some strong history, this former number 1 pick oozes class. The tigers don’t tag so no worry here. Led the way with Mitchell for centre bounces attendances in round 1. Going to shorten. Other bookings opening at 26/27
 
Jason Castagna To Score 2 or More Goals
Jake Aarts Any Time Goal Scorer
Josh Caddy Any Time Goal Scorer
Tim O'Brien Any Time Goal Scorer
Trent Cotchin To Get 20 or More Disposals
Jaeger O'Meara To Get 25 or More Disposals

$14.50 boosted at Sportsbet
 

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1.5u - Mitchell over 31.5 disposals - $1.68 - 365

1u - Mitchell 35+ disposals - $2.50 - 365

35, 42, 38, those are the numbers he had against the tigers in 2017, and 2018, in losses may I add. The tigers don’t tag, and mids have a decent day out on them. We got to see a glimpse of the Mitchell of old last week with a massive 39 disposals after he had his struggles last year after a year out. He looks fit and firing and expect the tigers to stick with their winning formula against this weak hawks side and for Mitchell to get off the hook.
 
* i don't want to jinx it, but is mitchell not a lock for most disposals GR1 at sportsbet at $2.10? (barring injury etc) Against richmond who were known to give up heavy disposal numbers, and don't tag, and he got 39 last week

100$ Mitchell Most Disp Grp A @ 2.10 (SB)
25$ Mitchel Most/Lynch Most Goals Grp A @ 7.75 (SB)
25$ Mitchel Most/Riewoldt Most Goals Grp A @ 9.75
25$ Mitchell Most/Lynch 3+ @ 4.33 (SB)
25$ Mitchell Most/Riewoldt 3+ @ 5 (SB)
 
prestia o25.5 @ 2.15 b365
good price and a good matchup vs hawks who can give up alot to mids. line is a couple touches under where i would have him at. can get 25+ @ 1.85

presita 25+
mitchell gr A
lynch 3+
riewoldt 2+
richmond win
@20 lads
 
Ceglar obrien reiwoldt dusty @3.25

Obrien 3, 4, 5

Bruest 2, Dusty 2, Kozinschie
Bruce 2, Kennedy 2, English
Himmelberg 2, Sproule
@64

I like Sproule as a potential train his goal odds have come in a lot since last night and looks like he will be a key forward target tonight for the giants. On him for multiples
 
2u - Worpel 25+ - $3 - 365
Yes another hawthorn mid, but at this price you’ve gotta back him here. Averaged 26.5 in his breakout year in 2019 and then had a bit of a down year last year. Fully capable of clearing this one, and at this price you need to have something on.
 
2u castagna 2g+ @2.30 lads
1u castagna 3g+ @5.50 lads
0.5u castagna 4g+ @16 lads
2u lynch 3g+ @2.05 pb
1u lynch 4g+ @3.80 pb
0.5u lynch 5g+ @8 pb
0.5u lynch 6g+ @21 pb
2u arts 2g+ @2.70 lads
1u arts 3g+ @6.80 lads
0.5u arts 4g+ @19 tab

3u mitch grp 1 @2.20 lads

presita 25+
mitchell gr A
lynch 3+
riewoldt 2+
richmond win
@20 lads
0.5u tailled but only @16.71

1u sgm omera 25+, mitchell gr A, lynch 2+, riewoldt 2+, richmond win @8.68 lads
1u sgm omera 25+, mitchell gr A, castgna 2+, dusty2+, richmond win @21.86 lads
1u sgm omera 25+, mitchell gr A, arts2+, dusty2+, richmond win @23.68 lads
 
2.5u - Prestia 25+ disposals - $1.85 - 365

Someone smashing the unders has given us a disposal better than what other bookies are offering for his line! Prestia attended a team high for CBAs last week, even after returning from an injury. He put in a quality performance with 25 disposals but unfortunately faded late with only 3 disposals in the last quarter. With a game under his belt and a 9 day turn around expecting him to be better prepared for this one! Hawthorn gave up the most disposals and uncontested disposals in 2020 and ranked rarely highly in round 1, these things added to the strength of this play.
 

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2.5u - Daniel over 26.5 disposals - $1.87 -PointsBet
2.5u - Williams 20+ - $1.65 - 365
2u - Hunter over 28.5 disposals - $2.10 - PointsBet

West Coast set up deep last week and allowed Gold Coast players to pick up big amounts of marks and uncontested possessions. Last year on average they allowed at least 24 extra marks than any other team. Expecting these three guys to be amongst the beneficiaries.
 
West Coast last 13 matches at Marvel Stadium have averaged 177.92 points per game

Western Bulldogs last 13 matches at Marvel Stadium have averaged 161.15 points per game

Current Line for todays game:

Under 172.5 points $1.90 v $1.90 Over 172.5 points


180 points is the new ceiling for games at Marvel now. It has to be a really attacking game from both sides for that total to be breached. These new rules have fastened up the game by maybe by about 5 % or so but I'm not sold on the scoring being higher. West Coast played in slow patches last week against Gold Coast. Playing at Marvel shouldn't phase the Eagles, their last 13 there , they are 8 and 5. If West Coast get possession of the ball, they will utilise time to get the ball forward, their style of play isn't about going bang and long.
 

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