Pies getting up covers my bets for the wknd & a little more.. On to Sunday's games!
AFL 2021 AFL Round 20
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md20
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- Apr 24, 2020
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One of my best
Red Dog Styles
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Gc played quite well at ethihad vs tigers and dees attack looking not great,29.5 line looks ok,don't know if GC have any more good efforts left though
Not to mention the pies shot for goal at the end. If score behind he gets the 20
Anyone got thoughts on totals tommorow,all set quite high unfortunately for the ess v syd, gc vs dees, port V gws all above 161
dont mind perkins again with no hooker.
2.5u perkins ags @2.03 ts
1.2u perkins 2g+@6 ts
0.5u perkins 3g+@22 ts
0.3u perkins sgm 3g+4g+@90 sb
0.15u perkins sgm 4g+5g+@376 sb
2.5u perkins ags @2.03 ts
1.2u perkins 2g+@6 ts
0.5u perkins 3g+@22 ts
0.3u perkins sgm 3g+4g+@90 sb
0.15u perkins sgm 4g+5g+@376 sb
Ah Chee listed FP, @5 for another couple this week. Breust kicked a few against the Lions last time @5 if he can reproduce. Gone..
Ah Chee for a couple & 3,4 @22 & @105pwd
Breust 3,4 @5 & @15
Cameron 2+
Joey D 2+
McCarthy 2+
Ah Chee 2+
Breust 2+
@69 SB pwd
Ah Chee for a couple & 3,4 @22 & @105pwd
Breust 3,4 @5 & @15
Cameron 2+
Joey D 2+
McCarthy 2+
Ah Chee 2+
Breust 2+
@69 SB pwd
Cheers. Thought 40+ was on the cards at one stage when he hit 27 half way through the third quarter but he completely disappeared for about half an hour because I don't think he picked up disposal number 28 till midway through the 4th. What could have been... oh well.
Sam Reid (the GWS one) AGS @ $4 - topsport. Same bet as last week because I think he plays forward again. Greene in for Bruhn, Peatling in for Kennedy. Still no Finlayson. Reid is listed on the bench, but none of the other 3 on the bench are forwards so I think Reid has the same role tomorrow that he had last week.
Goaled in 2 of his last 4 and has had score involvements every week, not sure how he's those odds but I'm happy to punt on it.
Feel like if Wright doesnt kick goals Essendon cant win, huge reliance on him this week surprised 3.60 is offered.
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Loaded on Joel Jeffrey ags @3.45 topsport, debuting after a nine goal haul in the reserves last week. 1.35 range elsewhere
Jeffrey
Bell
Reid
@19 ts
Jeffrey
Reid 2
Buddy 2
Stringer 2
Swans -12.5
Marshall
@63 ts
Charlie Cameron 4, 6+ @6.50, 17, 41 ts
Cameron 2
Papley 2
Daniher
Heeney
Wright
Hogan
Green
Fantasia
@10 ts
Jeffrey
Bell
Reid
@19 ts
Jeffrey
Reid 2
Buddy 2
Stringer 2
Swans -12.5
Marshall
@63 ts
Charlie Cameron 4, 6+ @6.50, 17, 41 ts
Cameron 2
Papley 2
Daniher
Heeney
Wright
Hogan
Green
Fantasia
@10 ts
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Nice find, went to tail but he's down to $1.55 already now.
I'll take a punt on Rowell instead, AGS @3.85ts & 2+ @18sb, been good for a goal 2 of the last 3..
- Oct 6, 2011
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Think GWS V Port Adelaide the totals I won't be touching. The line total is 165.5 points at Sportsbet.
Port have played there the last 2 weeks (135 pts and 166 pts) and I do feel like at home, they play a more attacking brand , in comparison to the Docklands specifically. Greater Western Sydney played at the Dome against Richmond - one of the more attacking sides and the totals was 170 that night.
WIth both teams in finals contention.....i reckon there will be there large periods with more possession style. Port will want to win to cement Top 4, GWS will want to win to cement Top 8. Personally don't see this being an end-to-end style of game...........the team leading will be looking to protect their lead - even if it means slowing down the game.
Petrify
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Mills over 27.5
Kennedy over 23.5
Buddy AGS
SGM @ SB $3.70 (3.50 without powerplay)
Put 2u on it, I don't see anyway these don't hit and worse case 2 will hit for cash back bonus. Mills coming off a huge rest and Kennedy destroys us, Essendon let their opponents accumulate way too much (see Whitfield last week)
Kennedy over 23.5
Buddy AGS
SGM @ SB $3.70 (3.50 without powerplay)
Put 2u on it, I don't see anyway these don't hit and worse case 2 will hit for cash back bonus. Mills coming off a huge rest and Kennedy destroys us, Essendon let their opponents accumulate way too much (see Whitfield last week)
Oliver Most Disposals Group A
$3.20 TS
Percentage punt here. Loves playing the Suns and Marvel. Would’ve cashed in this group 4 of the last 5 matchups (only loss to Petracca by one touch last year). Miller in ridiculous form and Trac always a threat but those odds too good to pass up.
Oliver
Vs Suns = 30 avg
At Marvel = 30 avg
Petracca
Vs Suns = 19.86 avg
At Marvel = 20.62 avg
Miller
Vs Dees = 20.5 avg
At Marvel = 26.07 avg
$3.20 TS
Percentage punt here. Loves playing the Suns and Marvel. Would’ve cashed in this group 4 of the last 5 matchups (only loss to Petracca by one touch last year). Miller in ridiculous form and Trac always a threat but those odds too good to pass up.
Oliver
Vs Suns = 30 avg
At Marvel = 30 avg
Petracca
Vs Suns = 19.86 avg
At Marvel = 20.62 avg
Miller
Vs Dees = 20.5 avg
At Marvel = 26.07 avg
Taranto named fwd pocket
$3.30 AGS
$18 2+
$3.30 AGS
$18 2+
On Taranto for 2 & 3
3u - Gold Coast under 67.5 - $1.83 - Ladbrokes
Good match up, we get the second most restrictive side on points per game vs the 17th ranked side on points per game for. Melbourne full well know the standard of the sides that have knocked them off this year with most of them being low level teams, will expect a real dialed in effort to ensure that doesn’t happen again.
2u - Steven May 20+ disposals - $2.35 - Ladbrokes
Off the back of two down games in unfavourable conditions. Should get good opportunities as Melbourne starve Gold Coast of opportunities and they begin bombing it in. Takes kick ins and will enjoy picking up intercept marks in nice conditions.
2u - Hardwick 20+ disposals - $2.25 - 365
2u - Scrimshaw 20+ disposals - $2.10 - TopSport
Hardwick is 10/16 whilst Scrimsahw is 9/14 (after removing to sub scores) this year. Both are boosted with the opportunity of take kick ins. Both look to be over the odds and should have great opportunities to go over today.
2.5u - Callum Mills over 27.5 disposals - $1.90 - TopSport
Usually I’m cautious when backing players after a stint on the sideline as generally it’s from an injury, Mills on the other hand comes back in after having two weeks off in isolation. Prior to that he had a stretch of four games going at 30+. Those two weeks off would’ve been perfect for him and he should come back into this one as the freshest player on ground.
2.5u - Jake Lloyd over 27.5 disposals - $2 - TopSport
In recent weeks Essendon have been giving up big uncontested possessions and mark numbers. The main beneficiaries has been guys that can fit a similar mould of Lloyd. Whitfield (35/10/24, D/M/UP), Perryman (25/9/19), Cumming (22/11/18), Hall (31/14/25), McDonald (26/8/18), Atley (19/10/18), Seedsman (27/10/22), Smith (28/8/17), Kelly (19/12/15). All numbers that are above these player’s season averages. Most importantly, Lloyd has been one of the best players around at collecting the uncontested chip-mark over the reason years and should look to find a few extra pockets of space on the wider expanses of the MCG.
2u - Matthew Parker 20+ disposals - $3 - TopSport
0.5u - Matthew Parker 25+ disposals - $9.25 - Ladbrokes
Interesting one, has never had 20 disposals in an AFL game, but in the role he had last week you have to give this at a crack at the odds. Had the same amount of CBAs as Cotchin, which is really saying something about his role. In the VFL had a 31 and 24 disposal game in the two games prior to being selected in the AFL side. Is his second chance on an AFL list and is essentially playing for his career each game. Great opportunity for a nice collect.
3.5u - Mundy over 23.5 disposals - $1.77 - TopSport
Had a run of games where this got right up to 27.5. Now without Fyfe and Walters in the side, he’ll be the experienced head to step up and put in a motivating effort. Over in 11/18 games this year.
4u - Brayshaw over 27.5 disposals - $1.87 - Ladbrokes
12/17 on this line this year. Gets a weak match up in the tiges and won’t have any threat of the tag. Another one who’s role improves with Fyfe out.
Good match up, we get the second most restrictive side on points per game vs the 17th ranked side on points per game for. Melbourne full well know the standard of the sides that have knocked them off this year with most of them being low level teams, will expect a real dialed in effort to ensure that doesn’t happen again.
2u - Steven May 20+ disposals - $2.35 - Ladbrokes
Off the back of two down games in unfavourable conditions. Should get good opportunities as Melbourne starve Gold Coast of opportunities and they begin bombing it in. Takes kick ins and will enjoy picking up intercept marks in nice conditions.
2u - Hardwick 20+ disposals - $2.25 - 365
2u - Scrimshaw 20+ disposals - $2.10 - TopSport
Hardwick is 10/16 whilst Scrimsahw is 9/14 (after removing to sub scores) this year. Both are boosted with the opportunity of take kick ins. Both look to be over the odds and should have great opportunities to go over today.
2.5u - Callum Mills over 27.5 disposals - $1.90 - TopSport
Usually I’m cautious when backing players after a stint on the sideline as generally it’s from an injury, Mills on the other hand comes back in after having two weeks off in isolation. Prior to that he had a stretch of four games going at 30+. Those two weeks off would’ve been perfect for him and he should come back into this one as the freshest player on ground.
2.5u - Jake Lloyd over 27.5 disposals - $2 - TopSport
In recent weeks Essendon have been giving up big uncontested possessions and mark numbers. The main beneficiaries has been guys that can fit a similar mould of Lloyd. Whitfield (35/10/24, D/M/UP), Perryman (25/9/19), Cumming (22/11/18), Hall (31/14/25), McDonald (26/8/18), Atley (19/10/18), Seedsman (27/10/22), Smith (28/8/17), Kelly (19/12/15). All numbers that are above these player’s season averages. Most importantly, Lloyd has been one of the best players around at collecting the uncontested chip-mark over the reason years and should look to find a few extra pockets of space on the wider expanses of the MCG.
2u - Matthew Parker 20+ disposals - $3 - TopSport
0.5u - Matthew Parker 25+ disposals - $9.25 - Ladbrokes
Interesting one, has never had 20 disposals in an AFL game, but in the role he had last week you have to give this at a crack at the odds. Had the same amount of CBAs as Cotchin, which is really saying something about his role. In the VFL had a 31 and 24 disposal game in the two games prior to being selected in the AFL side. Is his second chance on an AFL list and is essentially playing for his career each game. Great opportunity for a nice collect.
3.5u - Mundy over 23.5 disposals - $1.77 - TopSport
Had a run of games where this got right up to 27.5. Now without Fyfe and Walters in the side, he’ll be the experienced head to step up and put in a motivating effort. Over in 11/18 games this year.
4u - Brayshaw over 27.5 disposals - $1.87 - Ladbrokes
12/17 on this line this year. Gets a weak match up in the tiges and won’t have any threat of the tag. Another one who’s role improves with Fyfe out.
Can get $3.75 AGS TS
3.5u - Melb Win, Miller, Oliver 25+ disposals, Brown AGS - $1.75 - TAB
3u - Daniher 2+ goals - $1.65 - TAB
1u - Daniher 3+ goals - $2.89 - TopSport
1u - Daniher Most Goals - $4.80 - TopSport
Soft Hawthorn backline that has been struck with injuries. Saw the Adelaide talls line up and have a field day last week; Tex 4.0, Fogarty 2.1, Himmelberg 2.1. As we’ve seen Daniher is playing closer to goals and had his own fair share of opportunities last week kicking 3.4.
3u - Daniher 2+ goals - $1.65 - TAB
1u - Daniher 3+ goals - $2.89 - TopSport
1u - Daniher Most Goals - $4.80 - TopSport
Soft Hawthorn backline that has been struck with injuries. Saw the Adelaide talls line up and have a field day last week; Tex 4.0, Fogarty 2.1, Himmelberg 2.1. As we’ve seen Daniher is playing closer to goals and had his own fair share of opportunities last week kicking 3.4.
