AFL 2021 AFL Round 3

GROTTO · Mar 29, 2021

NonPhixion said:
Is that the infamous oraz?

I thought so too.

Saw too many choo choo trains getting to their destination.

Ohh Ok · Mar 29, 2021

Benjo_ said:
Anderson $7.75 for 30 disposals vs Crows on Lads. Got 35 vs Norf on the weekend. He's $2.25 for 30 on SB

Got pick up mate! Was hoping he flew under the radar until closer to game time aha. Has looked the goods and is playing a nice role.

freo_leo29 · Mar 30, 2021

Mark Murphy always kicks goals against Freo AGS @neds 2.10

Jack Martin has chopped Freo up multiple times 2+ @2.55 neds
3+ @6.20 Neds
4+ @13 TAB

iluvparis · Mar 30, 2021

GROTTO said:
Allir and Fantasia are great additions for their side.

Very unlucky to have landed the Tigers in a prelim.

Yeah super unlucky to play them at HOME in a COVID year and for the Tigers to kick 6.10.

They are one of 4-5 sides about a furlong behind the Tigers but nothing better than that.

iluvparis · Mar 30, 2021

OnThePunt99 said:
Why do i have this feeling north will be competitive vs the bulldogs? am i completely wrong?

Yes - totally

GROTTO · Mar 30, 2021

iluvparis said:
Yeah super unlucky to play them at HOME in a COVID year and for the Tigers to kick 6.10.

They are one of 4-5 sides about a furlong behind the Tigers but nothing better than that.

Where I was going with that, was that if the Tigers had beaten the Lions in the first final which most expected them to do, they would have most likely played the Lions in a Prelim and probably would have knocked them off to reach a GF.

iluvparis · Mar 30, 2021

GROTTO said:
Where I was going with that, was that if the Tigers had beaten the Lions in the first final which most expected them to do, they would have most likely played the Lions in a Prelim and probably would have knocked them off to reach a GF.

Yeah and then got belted by the Tigers in the GF - what difference would it make?

GROTTO · Mar 30, 2021

iluvparis said:
Yeah and then got belted by the Tigers in the GF - what difference would it make?

Im not disagreeing with that, it was going back to the original argument of the discussion, whether Port are pretenders or not?

I think they will go deep into the Finals again in 2021.

iluvparis · Mar 30, 2021

GROTTO said:
Im not disagreeing with that, it was going back to the original argument of the discussion, whether Port are pretenders or not?

I think they will go deep into the Finals again in 2021.

Fair enough - everyone except Richmond is a pretender in my eyes

And Port will lose this week

burge13 · Mar 30, 2021

OnThePunt99 said:
Absolutely unloading on the lions, match up really well with the pies, better team, elliot a big out, lions fired up after being robbed last week, should of won, pies have showedthey are no good against a decent side (e.g. the bulldogs)

load up 10u on Lions to win

What if the Big O misses? Has to destroy them structurally with no ruckman

Nuggetz · Mar 30, 2021

Last time I checked Heeney was 7ish for 3+ on neds and 2.80 for 2+ AGS

Cox 2.20 for 2+ and 5 for 3+ AGS on SB. He's kicked 2+ in both games this year.

BTW i think neds and ladbrokes have nearly identical pricing for goal scorers

GROTTO · Mar 30, 2021

Nuggetz said:
Last time I checked Heeney was 7ish for 3+ on neds and 2.80 for 2+ AGS

Cox 2.20 for 2+ and 5 for 3+ AGS on SB. He's kicked 2+ in both games this year.

BTW i think neds and ladbrokes have nearly identical pricing for goal scorers

IIRC Neds and Lads are owned by the same people.

ASP3X · Mar 30, 2021

I'm jumping on Josh Thomas this week for goals. Yet to score in the first 2 games, but with Elliot out he should get more of the ball in the forward 50 as the small forward. Against the Lions he scored 2 in 2019 and 3 in 2018. He has decent odds as well on Sportsbet.

Josh Thomas 2+ goals - $4
Josh Thomas 3+ goals - $13
Josh Thomas 4+ goals - $46
Josh Thomas 5+ goals - $101
Josh Thomas 6+ goals - $1,001 (SB SGM)

jikost · Mar 30, 2021

Oh man Josh Thomas has ruined so many multis for me. He's always like 1.70-1.80 to kick a goal and you always think he'll snag at least one but nope, goalless in 13 of his last 16 matches. In saying that, I'll take the $4 for 2+ this week assuming he isn't dropped.

langdon19 · Mar 30, 2021

OnThePunt99 said:
anyone have a lock pick? i'm down quite a few units so far this year
i've gone big on lions already i might mult lions/eagles/saints

pound it

juss · Mar 30, 2021

If the Dogs come to play, the -41 point line should be far too short. They are a 10-15 goal better side than the Roos and it only depends on how much they put in.

There's a few other +lines I don't mind this week.

I also don't rate Collingwood and even with their disruption I think the Lions could present value by gametime. I've started off with just 1u on the Lions +2.5 @ $2 on NEDS, multied into the Panthers (who should be a lock in the NRL Thursday night) for $2.19 total, and depending on how the odds/lines go might put more on later in the week.

mouncey2franklin · Mar 30, 2021

juss said:
If the Dogs come to play, the -41 point line should be far too short. They are a 10-15 goal better side than the Roos and it only depends on how much they put in.

Agreed however the umpires wore Roos guernseys in the 1st and 4th quarters in Rd 1, I can see that happening again.

Also Noble has apparently thrown out the 'attacking' football and played an extra man in defense for a large chunk of Rd 2 iirc.

The Dogs should win by 80+ but after what happened in the final minutes last weekend, I'm not sure it'll pan out that way.

GROTTO · Mar 30, 2021

mouncey2franklin said:
Agreed however the umpires wore Roos guernseys in the 1st and 4th quarters in Rd 1, I can see that happening again.

Also Noble has apparently thrown out the 'attacking' football and played an extra man in defense for a large chunk of Rd 2 iirc.

The Dogs should win by 80+ but after what happened in the final minutes last weekend, I'm not sure it'll pan out that way.

Ironically would have felt more confident on the doggies covering the line if they just lost to the Eagles.

AFLFootyChick · Mar 30, 2021

OnThePunt99 said:
Absolutely unloading on the lions, match up really well with the pies, better team, elliot a big out, lions fired up after being robbed last week, should of won, pies have showedthey are no good against a decent side (e.g. the bulldogs)

load up 10u on Lions to win

OnThePunt99 said:
anyone have a lock pick? i'm down quite a few units so far this year
i've gone big on lions already i might mult lions/eagles/saints

Ohhhh, Oraz, please, PLEASE don't fall into this pattern of "pounding" bets again. Two weeks in, you're already down $$$, and you are loading up again?! Just stop.

Atavistic · Mar 30, 2021

ASP3X said:
I'm jumping on Josh Thomas this week for goals. Yet to score in the first 2 games, but with Elliot out he should get more of the ball in the forward 50 as the small forward. Against the Lions he scored 2 in 2019 and 3 in 2018. He has decent odds as well on Sportsbet.

Josh Thomas 2+ goals - $4
Josh Thomas 3+ goals - $13
Josh Thomas 4+ goals - $46
Josh Thomas 5+ goals - $101
Josh Thomas 6+ goals - $1,001 (SB SGM)

The last time he was a halfway decent goal-kicking option was in 2018 - the same year Elliott missed the entire season. Could be worth a look. He didn't get near it last week, though, so I'm skeptical.

kicksome · Mar 30, 2021

do pies match up well against brisbane? theyve won 4 out of the last 5 against them and the only win for brisbane was last year by 8 points

juss · Mar 30, 2021

OnThePunt99 said:
What other lines do you like?

Anyone else like Freo? Even without Fyfe? I think they are being really underestimated here. They played decent in round 1 and lost Pearce (early in the game) and Hammling at the start of the 4th quarter(?).. and ... as we saw the Dees are no easy beats (good win over st kilda). In that game against Fre, Lever and May were BOG. Says it all really.. when a teams best players were their defenders. Freo are hard to play against and have a really good structure/gameplan. Carlton are desperate but you'd have to take Freo at the + if it keeps growing.

The other lines I don't mind at this stage/will keep watch of pending sides named, etc are:

St Kilda - 21.5 against Bombers
Fremantle +16.5 against Blues
Richmond -22.5 against Swans

I think depending on how they move, there could be some bets I'd place there

juss · Mar 30, 2021

OnThePunt99 said:
Down 10u so far. But it's ok load up
Lions into Eagles i'm 90% confident.

You are 90% confident betting against the Power?
They've been the best H&A team in the league across the last 20 odd games.

iluvparis · Mar 30, 2021

juss said:
You are 90% confident betting against the Power?
They've been the best H&A team in the league across the last 20 odd games.

Squiggle says otherwise

Del125763 · Mar 30, 2021

Nuggetz said:
BTW i think neds and ladbrokes have nearly identical pricing for goal scorers

They do.

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