AFL 2021 AFL Round 4

[GROTTO]

Punters need to realise for every Gulden Ticket

There is train wrecks always coming your way eventually.......

 

[CarterS]

Had Bomber straight out at 4.75 which is a shame but they covered the line easily so still up, could have been way better though.
Like Port but they have shortened too much.
Been lots of money for Carlton but I don't mind Gold Coast's price.

 

[JuniorWatch]

My bet of the round is the TP unders (u161.5 $1.90 TAB) for the Hawks/Freo game. Both are very low scoring sides by this this years standards.

Average TP is Freo games: 151.3
Average TP is Hawks games: 147.6
Freo games average 140 at home.

Also the rain this morning has gone from a predicted 50% chance of 5-15mm to a 70% chance of 15-25mm. Wind is also increasing.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Tigers getting out to $2.50 odd is just a silly price surely

 

[GROTTO]

Tigers getting out to $2.50 odd is just a silly price surely

+1

Aside from 3 flags in 4 years and in one year beaten singlehandedly by am American that played the game of his life, Tigers have not achieved much.

 

[kicksome]

Tigers getting out to $2.50 odd is just a silly price surely

I'm going to have a go purely because port have only beaten north and bombers

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I'm going to have a go purely because port have only beaten north and bombers

This too. The only side Port comes up against was last week and were thrashed

 

[GROTTO]

This too. The only side Port comes up against was last week and were thrashed

The irony is that I would be more confident on the Tigers had the Power beaten Eagles and esp if the Tigers didnt have a few injuries.

Port though will treat this like a Final, Tigers will go into it like a H&A game. Tigers players may handle the game better IMO.

IIRC the last time Tigers was given a handicap of almost 2 goals or more was v Crows at AO 2019.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

The irony is that I would be more confident on the Tigers had the Power beaten Eagles and esp if the Tigers didnt have a few injuries.

Port though will treat this like a Final, Tigers will go into it like a H&A game. Tigers players may handle the game better IMO.

IIRC the last time Tigers was given a handicap of almost 2 goals or more was v Crows at AO 2019.

At the price though and everything is about price...Richmond are the play

 

[Veer Right]

Tigers getting out to $2.50 odd is just a silly price surely

Both teams are evenly matched other then one has Dustbin and the other does not. On the flip side Port are at home... Richmond are overs.

Still feels like gambling though participating in this game.

 

[kicksome]

$3 for 1-39. Mumma miya!

 

[dontlimitme]

think port will come out flying and start well @ home in front of their home crowd so 1st quarter h2h, line and margin bets might be a go

 

[mouncey2franklin]

fwiw I see the Power spanking the Tigers.

My question is, who picks up the ruck tab without Ladhams in the side?

Does it fall to Marshall?

If I knew for sure Marshall was staying forward, I'd like to put a few bob on him for 2+ @ 2.40

But if he is going to be in the ruck for portions of the game, the odds seem less tempting.

 

[langdon19]

I

Also the rain this morning has gone from a predicted 50% chance of 5-15mm to a 70% chance of 15-25mm. Wind is also increasing.

Where is that weather report, 10-20 bom

 

[JuniorWatch]

I

Where is that weather report, 10-20 bom

oop nah thats just a typo sorry. 10-20mm is correct. Still, it's increasing every day

 

[GROTTO]

oop nah thats just a typo sorry. 10-20mm is correct. Still, it's increasing every day

Would have more confidence if it was 10-20L

 

[Veer Right]

Pick your own line,

Richmond +30.5 @ 1.28 is a good leg for a multi

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Pick your own line,

Richmond +30.5 @ 1.28 is a good leg for a multi

Richmond 1-39 is even better lol

 

[Ohh Ok]

Bet of the season for me!


5u - Boak/Wines 55+ combined disposals - $1.80 - TAB
Bet of the season for me. They’ve put together totals of 57, 68, 52. Against the tigers we’ve seen Walsh and Cripps 59, Mitchell and O’Meara 59, and Mills and Parker 60. These two are clear 1 and 2 midfielders for Port and will see high CBAs and plenty of time around the ball. Likely to see both disposal lines set at 27.5/28.5 and I like both for overs, so rather than relying on them getting 28 each (56 total) can rest on the fact that one should go comfortably into the 30s and the other could still fall slightly short.
Boak has been ultra impressive the last few years and probably comes into this slightly undervalued. Had 27 disposals in round 1 (only 1 in the final quarter as he rested a knock), 30 in a walk over performance in round 2 and then 26 in a hard fought midfield battle against west coast. Averaged over 30 in 2019, and 23 (27.6 adjusted) last season in reduced quarters (spent a fair bit of time forward during some of the short turn arounds). Has a favourable match up against a weakened Richmond midfield that usually lets opponent mids thrive. Will be looking to lead his boys to victory after last weeks loss!
Wines much the same as Boak, 30, 38 and 26 this year for an average of 31. Has had consistency, fitness, and role issues in the past but has seemed to take a step up this year and step up as one of the leaders of the club. If he’s not getting it tonight it’ll be Boak. Super match up and revenge spot for these two.

 

[Veer Right]

 

[Jammer]

I'm starting to think coming off a training run with North Melbourne
or a huge upset win is not a good lead in when u come up against a decent
side the following week

So far we have had

Port being smashed at $1.95 away to West Coast after two training runs v North and injury riddled Bombers

Tigers coming of average wins over Blues and Hawks ( probably both bottom six clubs )
Swans turn them over paying $4.00

Saints coming off over inflated win v Gaints ( probably bottom 6 club also )
Bombers beat them at $4.00

Swans coming off their best win in years
Bombers going down by a few points last night at $4.50

Reckon the Dogs are a big chance of being off tomorrow after that softest of lead in matches.
Ballarat might be an advantage however Lions are overs for me.
Am waiting for $3.20 on Betfair and will back them at the line when +13.5

 

[LukeParkerno1]

View attachment 1097685

Mugutoo as a top weight in the Doncaster...best of luck with the bet mate but Doncasters are impossible

 

[Kiddbrown]

Bet of the season for me!


5u - Boak/Wines 55+ combined disposals - $1.80 - TAB
Bet of the season for me. They’ve put together totals of 57, 68, 52. Against the tigers we’ve seen Walsh and Cripps 59, Mitchell and O’Meara 59, and Mills and Parker 60. These two are clear 1 and 2 midfielders for Port and will see high CBAs and plenty of time around the ball. Likely to see both disposal lines set at 27.5/28.5 and I like both for overs, so rather than relying on them getting 28 each (56 total) can rest on the fact that one should go comfortably into the 30s and the other could still fall slightly short.
Boak has been ultra impressive the last few years and probably comes into this slightly undervalued. Had 27 disposals in round 1 (only 1 in the final quarter as he rested a knock), 30 in a walk over performance in round 2 and then 26 in a hard fought midfield battle against west coast. Averaged over 30 in 2019, and 23 (27.6 adjusted) last season in reduced quarters (spent a fair bit of time forward during some of the short turn arounds). Has a favourable match up against a weakened Richmond midfield that usually lets opponent mids thrive. Will be looking to lead his boys to victory after last weeks loss!
Wines much the same as Boak, 30, 38 and 26 this year for an average of 31. Has had consistency, fitness, and role issues in the past but has seemed to take a step up this year and step up as one of the leaders of the club. If he’s not getting it tonight it’ll be Boak. Super match up and revenge spot for these two.

I like it
Can get $1.93 powered on Sb to sgm
Boak 25+ into wines 25+

 

[Veer Right]

Mugutoo as a top weight in the Doncaster...best of luck with the bet mate but Doncasters are impossible

Horse reminds me of good 90s WFA horses. Very honest, tries his best, doesn't know how to run a bad race.

 

[Geeves Train]

My bet of the round is the TP unders (u161.5 $1.90 TAB) for the Hawks/Freo game. Both are very low scoring sides by this this years standards.

Average TP is Freo games: 151.3
Average TP is Hawks games: 147.6
Freo games average 140 at home.

Also the rain this morning has gone from a predicted 50% chance of 5-15mm to a 70% chance of 15-25mm. Wind is also increasing.

This is a great shout!! A few more stats on these teams:

This season:
FREO 58,87,64
HAWKS 92,49,64

AND last year this game (albeit 20% shorter quarters) 48vs32