AFL 2021 AFL Round 5

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5 Bucks said:
There's been a lot made of Freo's inability to play away from home but I'm not buying that. Round 1 they were undermanned in KPF stocks and May and Lever made them pay, but they were getting it in plenty. Losing to Melbourne by 22 points is not disgraceful.

They were 2 men down Vs Carlton, with no Fyfe and the mids were well beaten. -21 for inside 50's. I can't see the Crows with their one A grade midfielder dominating the Dockers on ball brigade. Even NM who were two men down matched Adelaide for inside 50's for most of the match until the fewer rotations got to better of them. 53-59

Personally I think Freo have a superior midfield and should win the inside 50 count comfortably. Their forward line is looking as good as it has all season with Lobb, Tabs, Walters, Schultz and Freddy playing together for the first time this year and they should be able to hit the scoreboard.


2u Fremantle 1-39 $2.50
Click to expand...
Agree. I’m on Freo H2H
 
🐤🐤Hawthorn vs Melbourne 😈😈
2.5u - Mitchell over 32.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
2.5u - Mitchell more disposals than Oliver - $1.70 - PointsBet
The Dees don’t tag and when Mitchell doesn’t have to face a tag he generally gets off the hook. Has had attention from Harmes in the past and battled injuries in other games which has led to lower totals in 2018, and 2020, but Mitchell seems to be back at his best with a season low of 37 after his tagged game of 24. Also backing Mitchell for more disposals than Oliver, a good chance Worpel plays a run with role on Oliver making it harder for him today. Even if he doesn’t, when both guys go at it Mitchell usually racks up more of it.

2.5u - Petracca over 27.5 disposals - $1.80 - TopSport
If Hawks decide to use a tag it should go to Oliver which means Petracca runs free. Has cleared 3/4 this year.
 

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Ohh Ok said:
🐤🐤Hawthorn vs Melbourne 😈😈
2.5u - Mitchell over 32.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
2.5u - Mitchell more disposals than Oliver - $1.70 - PointsBet
The Dees don’t tag and when Mitchell doesn’t have to face a tag he generally gets off the hook. Has had attention from Harmes in the past and battled injuries in other games which has led to lower totals in 2018, and 2020, but Mitchell seems to be back at his best with a season low of 37 after his tagged game of 24. Also backing Mitchell for more disposals than Oliver, a good chance Worpel plays a run with role on Oliver making it harder for him today. Even if he doesn’t, when both guys go at it Mitchell usually racks up more of it.

2.5u - Petracca over 27.5 disposals - $1.80 - TopSport
If Hawks decide to use a tag it should go to Oliver which means Petracca runs free. Has cleared 3/4 this year.
Click to expand...
Im not saying they wont tag Oliver but surely you always go to the more dangerous player. Oliver wont hurt you on the scoreboard or by foot, tag petracca. Seems so obvious but im not a premiership coach...
 
burge13 said:
Im not saying they wont tag Oliver but surely you always go to the more dangerous player. Oliver wont hurt you on the scoreboard or by foot, tag petracca. Seems so obvious but im not a premiership coach...
Click to expand...

Worpel played a tagging role last week. He may go to Petracca.


Sunday Hail Mary
ADELAIDE CROWS VS FREMANTLE Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) (To Have 25+ Disposals)
ADELAIDE CROWS VS FREMANTLE Rory Laird (Adelaide Crows) (To Have 25+ Disposals)
ADELAIDE CROWS VS FREMANTLE Adelaide Crows (Match Betting)
ADELAIDE CROWS VS FREMANTLE Taylor Walker (Adelaide Crows) (Player Goals - To Kick 3+ Goals)
HAWTHORN VS MELBOURNE Jaeger O'meara (Hawthorn) (To Have 25+ Disposals)
HAWTHORN VS MELBOURNE Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn) (Most Disposals - Group A)
GEELONG CATS VS NORTH MELBOURNE Cameron Guthrie (Geelong Cats) (To Have 25+ Disposals)
GEELONG CATS VS NORTH MELBOURNE Tom Hawkins (Geelong Cats) (Player Goals - To Kick 2+ Goals)
GEELONG CATS VS NORTH MELBOURNE Geelong Cats (Match Betting)
Boosted to $27
 
Intriguing battle between the Crows and Heave Hos.

Meek only played about 50% game time last week and Darcy still managed to kick 3.2

Lobb back from injury, replacing Meek, will he spend more time in the ruck than Meek did?

I know a lot of people here are on the Lobb train but I'm hoping Darcy is the main beneficiary of Lobb's inclusion.

Darcy paying $8 for 3+, $26 for 4+, $81 for 5+ on TAB.

Adelaide's tall defenders: Butts is listed at 198cm, Smith at 189, Doedee at 188.

Darcy (202) / Lobb (206), Taberner (198), Treacy (193)

Assume Butts goes to Darcy/Lobb, Doedee to Taberner, Smith to Treacy?

There's going to be a big mismatch here somewhere.

Butts with six games under his belt is the only match for the resting ruck height-wise.

If the Freo mids get on top, on a sunny day in Adelaide, the Freo tall forwards could run riot.

Then you've got Minairo, Walters and Colyer to crumb, any one of them could kick a handful.

Too many train tickets to choose from, but I'm going with Darcy.
 
Ohh Ok said:
3.5u - Dangerfield over 25.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
Too low for a fired up Paddy after suspension against the bottom side.
Click to expand...
Fun Facts with Grotto

The last 3x that Dangerfield has missed a game, the following game upon his return he has recorded 29+ disposals.
 
GROTTO said:
Fun Facts with Grotto

The last 3x that Dangerfield has missed a game, the following game upon his return he has recorded 29+ disposals.
Click to expand...
Hello resident Crows fan,

Who are you expecting to play on the resting ruck in the Freo game today?

Treacy is third tall behind Taberner and the resting ruck, who would you guess will go to him?
 
Ohh Ok said:
3.5u - Dangerfield over 25.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
Too low for a fired up Paddy after suspension against the bottom side.
Click to expand...

Just wary in a game like this he’ll play a lot of forward
 

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mouncey2franklin said:
Lobb back from injury, replacing Meek, will he spend more time in the ruck than Meek did?

I know a lot of people here are on the Lobb train but I'm hoping Darcy is the main beneficiary of Lobb's inclusion.

Darcy paying $8 for 3+, $26 for 4+, $81 for 5+ on TAB.
Click to expand...


According to Justin Longmuir, Darcy will be the no.1 ruck with Lobb providing the chop-out but playing mostly forward.

Speaking to ABC Radio on Saturday, senior coach Justin Longmuir said he expects Lobb to play close to a full game.

“He’ll still go into the ruck for six to eight minutes a quarter like he always does and we expect him to compete really hard,” Longmuir told ABC radio.
Click to expand...
 
mouncey2franklin said:
Hello resident Crows fan,

Who are you expecting to play on the resting ruck in the Freo game today?

Treacy is third tall behind Taberner and the resting ruck, who would you guess will go to him?
Click to expand...
Crows dont have really many tall defenders, they may even consider Frampton going back down there to help out.
 
2.5u - Rohan/Hawkins 5+ goals combined - $1.72 - SB

1u - Rohan/Hawkins 6+ goals combined - $2.40 - TAB

0.75u - Rohan/Hawkins 7+ goals combined - $3.75 - SB

North have been getting belted all season. The equivalent 5+ goals bet has saluted all season vs the Roos. These two haven’t been at there best but should be really looking to damage the scoreboard today in front of the home crowd.
 
Ohh Ok said:
2.5u - Rohan/Hawkins 5+ goals combined - $1.72 - SB

1u - Rohan/Hawkins 6+ goals combined - $2.40 - TAB

0.75u - Rohan/Hawkins 7+ goals combined - $3.75 - SB

North have been getting belted all season. The equivalent 5+ goals bet has saluted all season vs the Roos. These two haven’t been at there best but should be really looking to damage the scoreboard today in front of the home crowd.
Click to expand...

Not going near that plonk Rohan, probably go donuts again if I'm on it
 
I think this Crows v Freo game should be a close one, not willing to bet on either team, just a couple SGM bets.

Fogarty AGS
Frederick AGS
Serong 20+
2u @ $3.00

Fogarty 2+
Frederick 2+
Doedee 20+
1u @ $28.00
 
TAB have McDonald 2+ @ $1.75 which is way overs in my opinion, SB has him $1.36 for 2+ & Lads $1.44.

4u - Tom McDonald 2+ @ $1.75 (TAB)
2u - Tom McDonald 1st, 2nd or 3rd goal @ $4.40 (Lads)
1u - Neal-Bullen 2+ @ $4.00 (SB) this is overs IMO

Neal-Bullen 2+
Wingard AGS
Melbourne Win
1u @ $7.70
 
Dylan Moore's been a good source of goals for us, having a crack at 2+ 4.00 (TAB)
 
Fremantle don't play the Adelaide Oval well. They have a 1 win 8 loss record there.

5 of 9 times they have posted 60 points or less.

Worth a play for me for Freo to score '60 points or under' at $6.00

I'd just be a bit wary of putting too many multis involving Freo goalscorers here........


Seeing that around 10 of the Dockers have played on this ground in 2019 for Freo as a team (against Port Adelaide or Adelaide). The players that have played here in the past most have played a game or a couple. Don't underestimate the familiarity surroundings. 1st time for Freo players to play on this ground: Heath Chapman, Frederick, Josh Treacy, Sean Darcy, Serong........

as I speak odds are roughly a flip of the coin before the bouncedown. I been saying all week the Crows will win and will stick by it.
 
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