AFL 2021 AFL Round 8

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demon_fanatic

Club Legend
May 8, 2006
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Guys two major things happened with Fritsch suspended and Parker not that's a 2 goal swing right there,add in the fact Tomlinson goes down and we suddenly are upsetting a settled team not to mention our spiritual leader Viney who would be perfect in a game like this vs swans.. the swans game suits the wide mcg a lot more than SCG too,
Weideman and Brown probably play and Tmac can help down back if needed or just play wing so he can float both ends, but losing Fritsch is huge,Brown is definitely 3-4 weeks off any kind of breakout game.. love the swans line 24.5
 

GROTTO

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Oh I thought that was just bait.

I'm not sure you can look at the performance against the Cats and suggest the Swans 'were off a cliff' relative to effort in, say, the Bombers game.

Probably a bit much discussion for this board, at the crux of it my point was there's value in taking a small stake on the Swans to win when the odds were > $4. I think they've come in now anyway, but the line is probably still worth looking at.
Were 30 points down at quarter time and had like 10 less scoring shots - as someone else already suggested complete fluke win
9/10 times the Cats win that game v Sydney.

25 scoring shots to 18.

Thats also not mentioning that 9/10 times Cameron gets paid that mark in the goal square.
 

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GROTTO

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If you say so, I'm really not interested in arguing in circles with you on this.
Youre thinking like a supporter and not objectively. Most posters would agree on here, the Sydney win was a fluke.

Dont worry youre not alone, I do this at times as well with the Crows. Thats why I try to take extra care when I consider them in betting.
 

iluvparis

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Apr 1, 2005
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Youre thinking like a supporter and not objectively. Most posters would agree on here, the Sydney win was a fluke.

Dont worry youre not alone, I do this at times as well with the Crows. Thats why I try to take extra care when I consider them in betting.
In contrast I am the rare supporter who thinks every Carlton win is a fluke.
 

Sausage Legs

All Australian
Sep 17, 2014
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9/10 times the Cats win that game v Sydney.

25 scoring shots to 18.

Thats also not mentioning that 9/10 times Cameron gets paid that mark in the goal square.
Closer to row z than the goalsquare. 6 seconds left on the clock. Wouldn't have had time to run around. Was no moral to kick it.
 
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SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
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Youre thinking like a supporter and not objectively. Most posters would agree on here, the Sydney win was a fluke.

Dont worry youre not alone, I do this at times as well with the Crows. Thats why I try to take extra care when I consider them in betting.
I'm really not but as above, this is getting a bit circular now so I'll leave it with one final comment: I'm not suggesting that we will certainly beat Melbourne, just that the $4+ offered initially was value.
 

GROTTO

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I'm really not but as above, this is getting a bit circular now so I'll leave it with one final comment: I'm not suggesting that we will certainly beat Melbourne, just that the $4+ offered initially was value.
Im not disagreeing with that call about the value with Melbourne, just that I think the Swans were very lucky to beat the Cats.
 

GROTTO

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Closer to row z than the goalsquare. 6 seconds left on the clock. Wouldn't have had time to run around. Was no moral to kick it.
That was just an additional asterix I was adding, the bottom line was the Cats had many more scoring shots and control of that game that they would have won 9/10 times.
 

GROTTO

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In contrast I am the rare supporter who thinks every Carlton win is a fluke.
Credit to Eddie, he tried his best to choke each time he had the ball too. He really has dropped off unfortunately.

Still dangerous though to leave him unguarded like the Dons did, he was just going for walkabouts by himself all over the ground on Sunday.
 

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NYRB

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Oct 6, 2011
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NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
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My views on Sydney v Melbourne, there ain't much in between these sides.

Last year, Melbourne were strong favourites against the developing Sydney side, and it was the underdog Swans that won.

I'd rather be backing Swans at 3.50 or above than backing against that.
 

GROTTO

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Well me fellow degenerates investors I mentioned a few weeks ago about all the teams released on Thursday so we can make earlier astute punting decisions and lose our money even faster.

Looks like its gathering momentum.

 

timster

Team Captain
Jun 4, 2007
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I'm really not but as above, this is getting a bit circular now so I'll leave it with one final comment: I'm not suggesting that we will certainly beat Melbourne, just that the $4+ offered initially was value.
I think on fox footy there was some stat that in 66 games since 2000ish cant remember the year out of 66 games that met the criteria based on stats only once did the dominating team not win. That was the Cats on Saturday. Swans very lucky to win that game. Top of the ladder team at home Dees are strong favs odds about right
 

Sausage Legs

All Australian
Sep 17, 2014
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I think on fox footy there was some stat that in 66 games since 2000ish cant remember the year out of 66 games that met the criteria based on stats only once did the dominating team not win. That was the Cats on Saturday. Swans very lucky to win that game. Top of the ladder team at home Dees are strong favs odds about right
From memory twice in same year tiges beat bris by 40+ both times after bris had more disposals, contested, clearances and scoring shots. It's how u burn teams on the turnover.
 

NonPhixion

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Mar 27, 2018
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NP's Bet of the Week:

Not many occasions this year there has been something jumping out at me, for the most part prop markets have been super tight. But, there is great value in Ben Cunnington this week.
30+ $3.10
35+ $8.50
40+ $31
All on SB

Collingwood midfield is just flat out soft, continuing to give up huge disposal numbers. Recent weeks they have given up 35 to Ellis & 34 to Miller. 42 to Parish & 34 to Merrett, 38 to Gaff & 37 to Redden, 37 to Ward & 34 to Taranto. Just absolutely no midfield accountability whatsoever. Cunnington will run amok. Off the back of 35 against a far superior Melbourne midfield and the last time he played the Pies he collected 37. This is a fill up
 

iluvparis

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NP's Bet of the Week:

Not many occasions this year there has been something jumping out at me, for the most part prop markets have been super tight. But, there is great value in Ben Cunnington this week.
30+ $3.10
35+ $8.50
40+ $31
All on SB

Collingwood midfield is just flat out soft, continuing to give up huge disposal numbers. Recent weeks they have given up 35 to Ellis & 34 to Miller. 42 to Parish & 34 to Merrett, 38 to Gaff & 37 to Redden, 37 to Ward & 34 to Taranto. Just absolutely no midfield accountability whatsoever. Cunnington will run amok. Off the back of 35 against a far superior Melbourne midfield and the last time he played the Pies he collected 37. This is a fill up
Tailed 35+
 

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