AFL 2021 AFL Round 8

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Sketi

Club Legend
Jun 24, 2011
2,630
3,035
depreston
AFL Club
Sydney
FWIW I think the Dees should account for Sydney comfortably, the midfield is a class above as is their defence.

imo the only thing stopping the Dees is the Dees, been up for a while and could be due for a down week soon.
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
7,185
7,980
AFL Club
West Coast
So what youre saying that home selection bias does not exist? Youre actually talking sh*t now yourself, because it does.
You want to chill out mate. This is some main board sh*t trying to devalue posters thoughts because of the team they support. This is the punting board.

Whether you think they are or not its a weak argument to invalidate a person rather than discussing the topic itself
 

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GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
49,956
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
You want to chill out mate. This is some main board sh*t trying to devalue posters thoughts because of the team they support. This is the punting board.

Whether you think they are or not its a weak argument to invalidate a person rather than discussing the topic itself
You probably should have chilled out yourself. We made peace and let it rest. But if you want to continue to talk sh*t, then dont.

You have jumped in without actually reading exactly what was said. It was reference to one game in the past.

Selection bias is real and I have had it occur with me at times too and admitted it at the time when I made the comment. Im not even sure why it was raised as an issue in the first place to be honest.
 

GROTTO

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Jul 5, 2013
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FWIW I think the Dees should account for Sydney comfortably, the midfield is a class above as is their defence.

imo the only thing stopping the Dees is the Dees, been up for a while and could be due for a down week soon.
Is there not some holes in the Melbourne defence with injures, couple that with the potential Sydney inclusions of Buddy and Rampe?
 

SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
104,174
65,293
North Shore
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Hull City, Adelaide United, EH
You want to chill out mate. This is some main board sh*t trying to devalue posters thoughts because of the team they support. This is the punting board.

Whether you think they are or not its a weak argument to invalidate a person rather than discussing the topic itself
This. This was my entire issue with the direction the discussion went.
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
7,185
7,980
AFL Club
West Coast
You probably should have chilled out yourself. We made peace and let it rest. But if you want to continue to talk sh*t, then dont.

You have jumped in without actually reading exactly what was said. It was reference to one game in the past.

Selection bias is real and I have had it occur with me at times too and admitted it at the time when I made the comment. Im not even sure why it was raised as an issue in the first place to be honest.
Lel yeah mate because you know whether I have read the whole thread or not. Believe it or not i had a spare 3 minutes to cover the whole thread.

You can't see why someone might have an issue with their opinion just being dismissed because of who they support? Id be pissed if my opinion on any Eagles match was written off just because I support them.
 

timster

Team Captain
Jun 4, 2007
323
63
Naracoorte
AFL Club
Carlton
Ok lets all reset! I think mostly we have great insight into our team and hopefully that provides an edge when betting in games with our own team. Sometimes no doubt our heart comes before our brain, hopefully not often.
Dont discount Blues, Nth, Cats i think 2 of tbese will win and all 3 to cover the line
 

GROTTO

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Jul 5, 2013
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Sometimes no doubt our heart comes before our brain, hopefully not often.
Exactly. Its happened to me and Ive even admitted that at the time.

I do agree on the flip side, as you mentioned most if not all posters on here have great insight into their team that as outsiders we dont.
 

GROTTO

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Jul 5, 2013
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Lel yeah mate because you know whether I have read the whole thread or not. Believe it or not i had a spare 3 minutes to cover the whole thread.

You can't see why someone might have an issue with their opinion just being dismissed because of who they support? Id be pissed if my opinion on any Eagles match was written off just because I support them.
Lol. Ok champ.

I didnt dismiss his opinion just on who they support. There has been various issues raised why the Cats would have won that game again versus the Swns more times than not.

If you believe 100% otherwise, congratulations, good luck to you, all the best.
 

GROTTO

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I find with betting knowing your team well can be more of an advantage than a hinderance betting wise.

I assume most posters on here are happy to make coin, even if it at comes at the cost of their own team losing.
I genuinely think it depends on the markets your betting on.

Players markets, 100% yes, there has been some awesome bets on here regards to disposals and goal kickers.

Not to say it doesnt happen with a picking your team to win or lose, but selection bias in home team selection can happen.
 

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NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
6,808
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I genuinely think it depends on the markets your betting on.

Players markets, 100% yes, there has been some awesome bets on here regards to disposals and goal kickers.

Not to say it doesnt happen with a picking your team to win or lose, but selection bias in home team selection can happen.
i find disposal markets is a bit of how matchups and positions on the day. If you can find an edge on tactics , it goes a long way in winning. Stats alone sometimes won't be helpful. Having inside knowledge of a team and how they play makes a huge difference.
 

Robo87

loyal crows fan.
Aug 3, 2014
1,949
2,106
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Staying true to my word from last week & i will double down on Gray this week as i think port will win it by 5g+. [Port won by 60+ in the AAMI trial game earlier in the year and adelaide havent made up the difference between the teams imo.]
2u gray 2g+ @2.55 lads
1u gray 3g+ @6.40 lads
0.5u gray 4g+ @15 tab

1.5u sgm -georgiades ags, fantasia ags, gray 2g+ @3.80 lads
1u sgm- georgiades ags, fantasia ags, gray 3g+ @11.61 lads boost
0.3 sgm - d.smith ags, hayward 2g+ gray 2g+, c.cameron 2g+ @49.42 sb boosted.
0.2 sgm- d.smith 2g+, hayward 2g+ gray 2g+, c.cameron 2g+ @154.99 sb boosted.

(fwiw - grays scores in his last 10 showdowns:
0.1, 0.0(played midfield), 6.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.1, 1.3, 3.0 ,1.1. = 2+scoring shots in 7/10 games )

Also noticed C.Camerons last 3 games as a lion vs dockers 2018-2020 his scores are: 4.2, 3.2, 3.0.
It seems he loves playing the dockers.. or the dockers defence cant contain him.. or both. -not much value on his odds tho.
 
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NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
6,808
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Auckland, New Zealand
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Staying true to my word from last week & i will double down on Gray this week as i think port will win it by 5g+. [Port won by 60+ in the AAMI trial game earlier in the year and adelaide havent made up the difference between the teams imo.]
2u gray 2g+ @2.55 lads
1u gray 3g+ @6.40 lads
0.5u gray 4g+ @15 tab

1.5u sgm -georgiades ags, fantasia ags, gray 2g+ @3.80 lads
1u sgm- georgiades ags, fantasia ags, gray 3g+ @11.61 lads boost
0.3 sgm - d.smith ags, hayward 2g+ gray 2g+, c.cameron 2g+ @49.42 sb boosted.
0.2 sgm- d.smith 2g+, hayward 2g+ gray 2g+, c.cameron 2g+ @154.99 sb boosted.

(fwiw - grays scores in his last 10 showdowns:
0.1, 0.0(played midfield), 6.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.1, 1.3, 3.0 ,1.1. = 2+scoring shots in 7/10 games )

Also noticed C.Camerons last 3 games as a lion vs dockers 2018-2020 his scores are: 4.2, 3.2, 3.0.
It seems he loves playing the dockers.. or the dockers defence cant contain him.. or both. -not much value on him tho.
I don't think Freo have that kind of player in defence to match up for him in terms of speed and size.
 

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
40,286
33,167
AFL Club
Carlton
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Calgary Flames, Man Utd
You don't need to look at what team SM supports to know that the conclusion that there Swans were NOT lucky to win last round is highly likely to be wrong. The data shows it to be the case. So if you don't blame his conclusion on team bias, you can just conclude he can't do math good.

Hiding behind the 'people are just saying this because I support team x' is a pissweak excuse. No one is saying that. All the conclusions were data driven as they should be.
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
49,956
59,520
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Adelaide
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
You don't need to look at what team SM supports to know that the conclusion that there Swans were NOT lucky to win last round is highly likely to be wrong. The data shows it to be the case. So if you don't blame his conclusion is based on team bias you can just conclude he can't do math good.

Hiding behind the 'people are just saying this because I support team x' is a pissweak excuse. No one is saying that. All the conclusions were data driven as they should be.
“Sixty six times we’ve seen a team have this much of a domination and 66 times they’ve won.”

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Game, Set and Match.
 

SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
104,174
65,293
North Shore
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Hull City, Adelaide United, EH
Haha everyone moves on and the same two go back in for one more go at it.

Not quite sure where this strawman about "SM didn't think the Geelong win was a fluke" came from when I never even commented on the nature of the win, I commented on the effort in that game.

But please, let's not start again.
 

Pbft

Reluctant Warlord
Sep 19, 2013
118
333
AFL Club
St Kilda
Hey Lads,

Long time lurker - infrequent poster

FWIW - going the following multi

Geelong +8.5
North +23.5
Sydney +22.5
Carlton + 21.5

14.16 @SB
 

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