AFL 2021 AFL Round 8

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LukeParkerno1

Post-Human
Sep 23, 2005
129,088
51,897
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Sydney Swans
6 leg multi
1u
Rich -6.5
Syd +28.5
Suns vs saints over 160.5
Carl vs dogs over 173.5
Gws win
Ben Cunnington 30+
@55.50
Going to tail this one as I like it. Richmond should belt Geelong. I agree on the two overs games. GWS just win agree. Cunnington is a great bet.

Might have a smaller one with Cunnington 35+
 

NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
6,808
2,525
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Going to tail this one as I like it. Richmond should belt Geelong. I agree on the two overs games. GWS just win agree. Cunnington is a great bet.

Might have a smaller one with Cunnington 35+
Ive tailed you and sneak but with slightly modified lines from Ladbrokes

Over 160.5 pts GC Suns v St.Kilda
Ben Cunnington 35+ Disposals
Over 172.5 pts Carlton v Bulldogs
Sydney Swans +31.5 Handicap

Odds $38.45 (Boosted to 44.63)


the similar bet with Sportsbet

Over 160.5 pts GC Suns v St.Kilda
Ben Cunnington 35+ Disposals
Over 173.5 pts Carlton v Bulldogs
Sydney Swans +28.5 Handicap

Pays 45.80

so i feel like im getting a better deal, an extra 3 points on the Swans line, and 1 point off the total match points line for Dogs/Bulldogs, for the similar odds on the multi. I loved Cunnington's game on the weekend and

As we know in multis , every point counts in bets like these.
 

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burge13

Premiership Player
Jan 25, 2019
4,985
9,507
AFL Club
Adelaide
Hey Lads,

Long time lurker - infrequent poster

FWIW - going the following multi

Geelong +8.5
North +23.5
Sydney +22.5
Carlton + 21.5

14.16 @SB
Slippery slope joining us I'm afraid. It's all fun and games now but before long you'll be throwing remotes at your TV like NonPhixon, abusing 18 year old debutants like Blood, or checking overnight russian table tennis odds like NYRB. Good luck
 

Sketi

Club Legend
Jun 24, 2011
2,630
3,035
depreston
AFL Club
Sydney
Is there not some holes in the Melbourne defence with injures, couple that with the potential Sydney inclusions of Buddy and Rampe?
Evens it up a bit for sure. Rampe in particular would be a huge in and saves a goal or 2.

McDonald can go back for the Dees though and they have key position depth with Weideman playing well in the VFL.
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
49,956
59,520
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Evens it up a bit for sure. Rampe in particular would be a huge in and saves a goal or 2.

McDonald can go back for the Dees though and they have key position depth with Weideman playing well in the VFL.
IIRC Swans were around $4 and +28.5 that came in, when word broke out of Buddy and Rampe as potential inclusions, which made sense.

Yes I did read about Macca going back and Weid who has been kicking bags in VFL can come in and replace him up forward.

You mentioned Dee's midfield being superior which is true, if they win the midfield they will win the game.

Will be an interesting game.
 

Jammer

All Australian
Jun 26, 2007
611
513
St Kilda
AFL Club
Adelaide
Ok the "overs" model stands up again last round

Hawks v Saints goes over the 167.5 by 20
Blues v Bombers goes over the 173.5 by 50
That is 7 out of 7 where total goes over with my bottom 6 below playing each other
The Dome now goes 12 from 14 totals over 170 pts

I am faced with dilemma of Pies v North at the Dome this round with the line set at 167.5
Pies not in my original bottom 6 but are obviously bottom 6 material now. Stats above tell me to back the total overs however
North are yet to break 75pts and the Pies not much better so am leaving it alone
I'm sticking with my original 6 teams but will fine tune some filters. I want this to be automatic rather than "I'm not feeling these two teams "

Lets see what North and Pies throw up...Model below for those interested


I have been looking at past rounds and playing with a totals model that revolves around what i rank the bottom 6 playing each other.
My theory when inferior sides play each in good conditions totals can be set too low due to their low scores against better quality teams.
These teams being North, Hawks , Adelaide, Carlton, Bombers and Saints. ( Yes my point of view )
I'm exclusively looking for an edge in Overs totals so have excluded when these teams have met in outdoor night games.

So far
Rd 1 Hawks Bombers 183 pts
Rd 3 Saints Bombers 211pts
Rd 4 North Crows 177pts
Rd 6 Hawks Crows 201 pts

Saints play Hawks at the Dome this round with the total set at 167.5 pts with Sportsbet
( no doubt due to Saints not breaking 50pts v Top 4 teams Tigers and Port )
13 matches at the dome so far this year only two have gone under 170pts.

Yes a small sample size but still think the line should be around 10 pts higher

Lets see
 

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