AFL 2021 AFL Round 9

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NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
7,351
2,792
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
I think Geelong get more of the ball than the Saints last week. Can see the Geelong v Saints game being similar to the Cats v Tigers match last week.

Geelong will get a lot of the ball.

Net Differential Disposals for 2020 and 2021:

Geelong in 2021: +77.5
Saints in 2021: -23.5

Geelong in 2020: +45.8
Saints in 2020: -4.9

I'd just be wary of having too many bets involving Selwood, who is playing less on ball minutes and Higgins less midfield and more forward role in your disposal bets. Selwood is coming to the end of his career, and his fitness to run out games isn't as good as it used to be. Just my observation anyway.

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Hak94

Team Captain
Apr 27, 2021
484
371
AFL Club
Essendon
I think Geelong get more of the ball than the Saints last week. Can see the Geelong v Saints game being similar to the Cats v Tigers match last week.

Geelong will get a lot of the ball.

Net Differential Disposals for 2020 and 2021:

Geelong in 2021: +77.5
Saints in 2021: -23.5

Geelong in 2020: +45.8
Saints in 2020: -4.9

I'd just be wary of having too many bets involving Selwood, who is playing less on ball minutes and Higgins less midfield and more forward role in your disposal bets. Selwood is coming to the end of his career, and his fitness to run out games isn't as good as it used to be. Just my observation anyway.

View attachment 1126894View attachment 1126895
I noticed this too! Seems to just get over the 20 mark most weeks but he always leaves it right to the last term most games. Has had me biting my nails a few times, hence no longer in my multis.
 

Kiddbrown

Debutant
Apr 13, 2016
84
101
AFL Club
Adelaide
  • Sam Menegola To Get 20 or More Disposals - 5/6
  • Mitch Duncan To Get 25 or More Disposals - 5/6
  • Tom Stewart To Get 25 or More Disposals - 6/8
  • Brandan Parfitt To Get 15 or More Disposals - 7/7
  • Isaac Smith To Get 20 or More Disposals - 7/8
$5 @ SB

perfect conditions under the roof to play their chip chip style.
I like this.
tailled but added Guthrie 30+ for $9.20 (boosted)
 

NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
7,351
2,792
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
  • Sam Menegola To Get 20 or More Disposals - 5/6
  • Mitch Duncan To Get 25 or More Disposals - 5/6
  • Tom Stewart To Get 25 or More Disposals - 6/8
  • Brandan Parfitt To Get 15 or More Disposals - 7/7
  • Isaac Smith To Get 20 or More Disposals - 7/8
$5 @ SB

perfect conditions under the roof to play their chip chip style.
I like this.
tailled but added Guthrie 30+ for $9.20 (boosted)
Like both of your guys bets and tailed

Gone for Menegola 20+ Disposals
Duncan 28+ Disposals
Atkins 15+ Disposals
Parfitt 15+ Disposals
Isaac Smith 22+ Disposals
Howard 15+ Disposals
Most Disposals Group A Guthrie (Guthrie , Duncan, Selwood, Selwood, Stewart, Steele, Crouch, Ross, Hunter Clark)

@ 32


As a bit of insurance,
Also gone for Cam Guthrie Most Disposals Group A
Under 29.5 Disposals Cam Guthrie

@ 76


Guthrie has a bit of a bad record against St.Kilda for some weird reason. His recent disposal record against Saints (in order of my recent): 14, 16, 17, 25, 29, 15, 12 , 13 . The line for him is 29.5 disposals, which is right based on 2021 form, but not based on this opposition.


Dougal Howard 15+ Disposals
Duncan Most Disposals Group A
Duncan 28+ Disposals
Steele Under 27.5 Disposals

@ 12

Duncan seems to have a good record against the Saints, having posted a goal in 6 of his last 10 matches.
 

NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
7,351
2,792
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Guthrie is in unstoppable form at the moment and he is their best player at the moment. Wouldn't surprise me if he chipped in with 35+ Disposals tonight- even if its against his bogy team.


Feel like Geelong's style of play, with them looking to keep ball at all costs, will lead to Saints midfielders, having a slightly reduced disposal count tonight. (eg Billings, Steele, Hunter ) I've chucked in Dougal Howard in my multi because I reckon the ball will spend more time in the Cats forward line than Saints forward line.

I only had 1 glance at Dougal Howard's stats today and know roughly he has covered 15+ disposals on a high basis, but got a sneaky feeling 25+ could come into play tonight, and that's paying odds of 10.50. Just a gut feeling and a bet not based on stats.
 

NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
7,351
2,792
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Ziebell managed to get 38 disposals against Cats, Andrew Gaff got 27 disposals , Daniel Rich got 25 and those three traditionally play a half back flank role running out of defence. Sportsbet have Dougal to get 25+ at odds of $10, can get $10.50 at TAB.

Anyway in terms of midfield battle , Guthrie/Selwood/Menegola/Higgins/Isaac Smith stronger and more hungrier to the ball than Steele/Billings/Hunter Clark/Ross and Brad Hill.
 

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Hak94

Team Captain
Apr 27, 2021
484
371
AFL Club
Essendon
Ziebell managed to get 38 disposals against Cats, Andrew Gaff got 27 disposals , Daniel Rich got 25 and those three traditionally play a half back flank role running out of defence. Sportsbet have Dougal to get 25+ at odds of $10, can get $10.50 at TAB.

Anyway in terms of midfield battle , Guthrie/Selwood/Menegola/Higgins/Isaac Smith stronger and more hungrier to the ball than Steele/Billings/Hunter Clark/Ross and Brad Hill.
Steele is currently IMO one of two players/midfielders that is risky at 25+ disposals to fit into multis. When he's on, he's on but he's still not as yet a lock for the 25+ every week, hence his price. The other player is Petracca. I've had multis completely void because he's missed the mark by 1 or 2, whenever raves about him being a ball magnet. He's quality but some weeks he just travels along and I think that's because he knows how Melbourne are currently playing that he doesn't need to give 100% for four quarters and fetch the ball.

Agree with your statement about the midfield battle here though, Billings is either completely off or he's super on. There is no inbetween. I think the only player of value/lock amongst this list of St Kilda players is Clark, he's pretty handy in that 20+ market every week. Especially given the odds around players who work from running out of defence - that's Hunter Clark's role in 2021.
 

Veer Right

Club Legend
May 11, 2019
1,774
3,231
AFL Club
St Kilda
Final one for good measure,

Hawkins 2+ goals
Cameron 3+ goals
Hunter Clark 20+
Menegola 20+
Duncan 25+
Crouch 25+

100 @ 10/1
 

Enclosed_Animal

Club Legend
Jun 14, 2015
1,236
9,192
Sandringham
AFL Club
St Kilda
I like Jack Steele 3+ @ $20 and 4+ @ $100

Kicked 3.1 against Melbourne at Colonial a few weeks ago.
Sadly, Zac Jones out hurts the goals on this one. Without Gresham as well, our midfield depth has taken a bit of a battering. That means less time for Steele forward. More importantly, even with Jones out, we still bought in an additional small forward to last week (Lonie) instead of another genuine mid in Dunstan (who would roll through center bounces). Lonie, Butler and Higgins all forward (as well as 3rd or 4th gamer Byrnes) leaves very little space for any mid to rest forward (as Steele has been doing a bit).

Could be wrong, but against an experienced cats midfield, I would anticipate Steele to spend more time on ball then he has all year (so might be a case of disposals up and goals down)

If the Saints are any shot (highly questionable), Steele & Crouch (and to a lesser extent Ross and Billings) will need to pull big big midfield numbers. For anyone looking at any Saints bets tonight, that's where I would be going.

Also as an FYI… Rohans last game vs St.Kilda (even without Cameron) was 16 disposals, 5 marks, 9 score involvements, 409 metres gained and 4 goals 3. We seem to be one of the few teams he turns up against.
 
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Geeves Train

Team Captain
Mar 24, 2008
509
453
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Good find AGS Battle tonight for the earlier posters. I just had a look at Tab and they are still $41 1st goal and $11 1st, 2nd or 3rd goal meaning they haven’t adjusted yet. big value considering the others listed at HF for Saints (Higgins and Butler) are $12 and $17 FGS and $4 and $5.50 (1-3)!!
 

burge13

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2019
5,503
11,123
AFL Club
Adelaide
Swans kids tiring a bit. Swans overperforming v Pies underperforming probably returns to the mean sooner rather than later. Pies still have enough quality to get within 21 of a team who were favoured to be bottom 4 at the start of the season. Sidey, Crisp, Pendles, Daicos 'should' match Parker, JPK, Mills and Warner with the help of Grundy dominating Naismith whos back in I believe?

21.5 seems too big a number. What makes you think otherwise?
 
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