Prediction 2021 Best 22

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Copied from the other thread I just posted in re. Tyler Brown:
Brown is 21 and as a mid he's not good for even 5 contested possessions per game. And not even 12 disposals per game. Not even 1.5 tackles per game. He's at a very low baseline level of play as we speak. As a mid, could he ever develop into a 25 disposal per game, 10 contested possession, 5 tackle per game mid who can kick a goal every season game? I'm not seeing it. There were better delisted free agents out there, aside from the unwanted players on rival lists who could have been had during the trade period.

I'm not sure why people are looking at Tyler as anything more than someone who is really heading into a make or break season. He's plainly not close to AFL standard.

I can't say that I disagree with you, but I tended to view Daicos in the same light until this year and like Daicos there are the occasional flashes of something that could become above par. Like most kids who aren't yet AFL regulars, he's a fingers crossed proposition, but at least there are some moments that you can see some things that could make him a very good player. But yeah, he just doesn't get near the footy very often. Has he got endurance issues?
 
Could go the other way though in regards to JDGs forward play. This year with Elliott doing a lot of midfield minutes, he seemed to become a less explosive, dynamic and effective forward than when he was stationed there.

That's a fair call and agree with you on Elliott and his usage this year.

I just find with De Goey he has periods where he's too quiet for too long. And being someone who can impact games so heavily when he's 'on' you really want to mimise that difference between his best and worst. He's not someone who is great every game. He's great some games. I'm not sure yet what split of midfield time would prove optimal. Maybe this year trying 50/50 might be a good start and those minutes can be modified based on feel as to how it's going.

Ultimately both the front half and midfield are weak, and needing a De Goey in both spots, giving him minutes in both spots and trying to time it so that his impact in both can be optimised, is about the best we can do.
 
Besides Rioli and Castagna who are there for their forward pressure more than anything else, I think you under estimate the rest of their list, they go way deeper than 10- 12 players

I'd argue the reason for your thinking comes down to how they play and their role player culture. Very similar to us in 2018, from 2017 with near zero list change the way we played turned no name players into back page headliners.

All of that come purely from game and player development, I seriously doubt the tigas list is THE best but their system and game culture is and to be honest it is their key - not their list.
 

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Besides Rioli and Castagna who are there for their forward pressure more than anything else, I think you under estimate the rest of their list, they go way deeper than 10- 12 players
It's really hard to say, as players always look a damn site better when they're in a top team than a mediocre team. But I don't think that guys like Baker, Broad, McIntosh, and Balta, are that much chop either, but like Rioli and Castagna they can seriously run and thus add to the defensive pressure that makes that team so good.
 
Where I disagree is that I think a lot of the stats around these things are as much a factor of role and position within the zone as they are about the actual player himself. Most intercepts are uncontested, sure game and ball flight reading is significant, but just as significant to these stats are whether the player is playing a core spot in the zone. We're fortunate to have a couple of elite inerceptors in Darcy and Howe, who play in the centre of our zone and are althletic and talented enough to also look after a man pretty well. Bruzzy and Crisp are also pretty good at it. But no team is going to be able to fill their defence with players like these four, so the peripherary roles can and need to be played by blokes who offer something other than intercept. No point in being elite at reading it and judging your spacing from your opponent to take uncontested marks, if you are not playing a central enough role in the zone to get the opportunity to do this very often. I also think you're viewing two very inexperienced AFL players in Noble and Madgen as finished products, despite them still seeming to be moving upward on the development trajectory.

With Noble and Madgen I struggle to see where the upside is. What can they both realistically add to their games? They're two where they basically are who they are fundamentally and the best you can hope for is small incremental improvements.

Improvements tend to happen either because a player has a sharp upward trajectory to their game, they've grown later and are still growing into their bodies (typically KPPs or the super tall mids as with a Cripps), or they've changed to a position where their capabilities are more effectively realised (think Howe/Leon/Crisp when shifting back), and eventually maximised as they gain comfort in that new spot. None of those situations apply for Noble or Madgen and at their ages don't leave me with that kind of optimism.

The likes of Moore/Howe/Maynard/Crisp all are exceptional defenders. The aim from here, from a back half perspective that I would have is finding another 2-3 to pair with them to complete that defence. Quaynor showed he is capable and could develop into one of those. So it's basically another good key defender - maybe Kelly could switch back and be that guy if he improves dramatically. And then another good general defender is probably needed from externally unless some other existing players switches back and has surprising success. WHE maybe? If there is anyone internal who could. Or maybe a Murphy if he finds a way to really take off this preseason.
 
That's a fair call and agree with you on Elliott and his usage this year.

I just find with De Goey he has periods where he's too quiet for too long. And being someone who can impact games so heavily when he's 'on' you really want to mimise that difference between his best and worst. He's not someone who is great every game. He's great some games. I'm not sure yet what split of midfield time would prove optimal. Maybe this year trying 50/50 might be a good start and those minutes can be modified based on feel as to how it's going.

Ultimately both the front half and midfield are weak, and needing a De Goey in both spots, giving him minutes in both spots and trying to time it so that his impact in both can be optimised, is about the best we can do.
At some stage they'll give him an extended run in the midfield. Personally, I think he'll always be a more effective forward. He roles the dice too much - flashing through and often out of contests and isn't good enough at spotting options to be a full time mid - he doesn't ever seem to see a handball release and doesn't ever dispose until he's used his extreme power to burst into the clear, which isn't always a viable option - particularly if his power is reduced by midfield fatigue.
 
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With Noble and Madgen I struggle to see where the upside is. What can they both realistically add to their games? They're two where they basically are who they are fundamentally and the best you can hope for is small incremental improvements.

Improvements tend to happen either because a player has a sharp upward trajectory to their game, they've grown later and are still growing into their bodies (typically KPPs or the super tall mids as with a Cripps), or they've changed to a position where their capabilities are more effectively realised (think Howe/Leon/Crisp when shifting back), and eventually maximised as they gain comfort in that new spot. None of those situations apply for Noble or Madgen and at their ages don't leave me with that kind of optimism.

I view experience as being as significant as age in terms of potential for development. think Noble is a really neat kick. As his decision making improves, I think he could be a lot more effective as a rebounder, particularly if we as a team become more cohesive with our transition.

Madgen is also a very nice kick and has good awareness and decision making and a nice sidestep. I'm pretty happy when the ball is in his hands. As his confidence improves, I can see him offering a fair bit more in terms of transition than he currently offers, whilst being able to negate a pretty wide range of player types. Basically, I view him as already having become a pretty safe and reliable defensive stopper with a skillset to offer more offensively than he's currently producing.
 
It's really hard to say, as players always look a damn site better when they're in a top team than a mediocre team. But I don't think that guys like Baker, Broad, McIntosh, and Balta, are that much chop either, but like Rioli and Castagna they can seriously run and thus add to the defensive pressure that makes that team so good.

No, Baker is elite, Broad the same, McIntosh is a great long striding, kicking wingman who is often too tall for is opponents and Balta is already a gun defender and will only get better, I think you let yourself down a bit there or may be just a bit bias
 
No, Baker is elite, Broad the same, McIntosh is a great long striding, kicking wingman who is often too tall for is opponents and Balta is already a gun defender and will only get better, I think you let yourself down a bit there or may be just a bit bias
I'd suggest classifying Baker and Broad as elite is biased. There's no way they'd be getting that classification if they played in a lesser team.
 
I don't even think T Brown has had a real good go at it as yet, and definitely hasn't had the midfield minutes to compare his current stats as a midfielder.

One thing i did notice is that we are all impressed with Daicos' year. A real 'breakout' and now one of our important players.

Interestingly, on the surface his stats are the same as 2019. But he only played 5 games last year.
Obviously he has been more effective and is kicking goals.

And a final question, do we actually know how the players feel about Treloar and Stephensen?
I see many assumptions being made about this tearing the club apart, but who really knows? Maybe the players weren't close with them? I don't know myself, but I see many comments from outsiders based upon their own assumptions.
 
I don’t see a huge drop in our output with our departures.

Treloar gets replaced by Sidebottom with an option now to run DeGoey through the middle. Couldn’t see us having both Treloar and DeGoey in the midfield full time with their defensive running.

Will Kelly needs exposure forward and I think one of Wilson or Henry could surprise as third tall to replace Stevo.

Howe returns to defense to give us intercept marking and leadership. Madgen out as a starting point.

I’d put games into Murphy before Mayne also with Howe back to provide the structure Mayne was helping with.

That gives us plenty of options for young kids to come on and challenge the likes of WHE, Thomas, Noble and others.

Plenty of scope to develop some kids and still be finals relevant which should be our aim for 2021.


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With Noble and Madgen I struggle to see where the upside is. What can they both realistically add to their games? They're two where they basically are who they are fundamentally and the best you can hope for is small incremental improvements.

Improvements tend to happen either because a player has a sharp upward trajectory to their game, they've grown later and are still growing into their bodies (typically KPPs or the super tall mids as with a Cripps), or they've changed to a position where their capabilities are more effectively realised (think Howe/Leon/Crisp when shifting back), and eventually maximised as they gain comfort in that new spot. None of those situations apply for Noble or Madgen and at their ages don't leave me with that kind of optimism.

The likes of Moore/Howe/Maynard/Crisp all are exceptional defenders. The aim from here, from a back half perspective that I would have is finding another 2-3 to pair with them to complete that defence. Quaynor showed he is capable and could develop into one of those. So it's basically another good key defender - maybe Kelly could switch back and be that guy if he improves dramatically. And then another good general defender is probably needed from externally unless some other existing players switches back and has surprising success. WHE maybe? If there is anyone internal who could. Or maybe a Murphy if he finds a way to really take off this preseason.
Langdon is a massive loss no doubt.
Quaynor is a lock.
i don't see Noble as a long term option.
Maybe there's an opportunity for Reef?

But seriously, i think our backs are the last of our issues.
Cox is a real issue because of his lack of consistency. and we need to be working on quick movement through the middle. The coaching next year will be interesting.
 
I'd suggest classifying Baker and Broad as elite is biased. There's no way they'd be getting that classification if they played in a lesser team.
They are both classed as elite, you might need to watch the grand final again and maybe a few home and away games as well, you're wrong on this one and I will agree to disagree and move on
 

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Langdon is a massive loss no doubt.
Quaynor is a lock.
i don't see Noble as a long term option.
Maybe there's an opportunity for Reef?

But seriously, i think our backs are the last of our issues.
Cox is a real issue because of his lack of consistency. and we need to be working on quick movement through the middle. The coaching next year will be interesting.

I agree with you on Langdon. He was a capable component.

Reef has played back for Oakleigh, but I'm looking at him as a mobile medium marking forward who probably plays mostly across half-forward and rotates up through the midfield. Then as his contested ball winning develops and he grows into his body hopefully he can develop into that more genuine contested ball winning mid.
 
Reef has played back for Oakleigh, but I'm looking at him as a mobile medium marking forward who probably plays mostly across half-forward and rotates up through the midfield. Then as his contested ball winning develops and he grows into his body hopefully he can develop into that more genuine contested ball winning mid.

With his pace and I'm assuming he's got a good ground level game as a prospective mid, could he play a small forward pressure role whilst he's developing into a mid?
 
Well
Let's see
Magden played minimal footy
Cox ditto
Tyler ditto

So all 3 are best 22
Unbelievable that you get to comment on ESPN

As a guru expert

No idea
If 2 out of 3 of these players are best 22 on last year's form, we are in trouble. Madgen is the exception. Tyler Brown does not get anywhere near enough of the ball and Cox plays one good game in 10.
 
With his pace and I'm assuming he's got a good ground level game as a prospective mid, could he play a small forward pressure role whilst he's developing into a mid?

McInnes is definitely quick and is able at ground level. If there is something I like most, it might be his work overhead. I think there is real upside in him developing that which already forward of centre is a relative weapon.

Can he be that pressure player? He'll need to work further on that. Not a volume tackler and doesn't have that feel where he would necessarily be elite in those aspects all that quickly. It's one of those components though you'd sit down with him and say - make this a strength to your game, it's going to get you games in season one if you can apply it on match day.
 
B: Howe Roughead Maynard

HB: Crisp Moore Quaynor

C: Daicos Pendlebury Sidebottom

HF: Elliott Mihocek Hoskin-Elliott

F: Thomas Cox Kelly

Foll: Grundy De Goey Adams

INT:
Murphy/Madgen (7th Def)

Wilson/Henry (7th Fwd)

McIness (6th Mid)

Macrae/Poulter/T.Brown/Rantall/Sier (7th Mid)

EMG:
Cameron Madgen/Murphy Sier Rantall
 
I'm not sure why people are looking at Tyler as anything more than someone who is really heading into a make or break season. He's plainly not close to AFL standard.
Wow. We must be watching two different Tyler Browns. I think he has shown great promise and flashes of absolute class. He is lightly built but he will get stronger and I am confident he will play a big role in the years ahead.
 
Cox. He's 29. 30 in March. What's he doing at that age to improve? Who he was in 2018 is all that can reasonably be expected of him.
Cox could easily play on for 4 or 5 years. He only has to keep fit. He spends most of his time close to goal and he won't be getting any shorter in the years to come.
 
Wow. We must be watching two different Tyler Browns. I think he has shown great promise and flashes of absolute class. He is lightly built but he will get stronger and I am confident he will play a big role in the years ahead.

I see what you're saying and agree that when Brown has the ball, he does look good.

Quality is nice, but quantity is an essential component and also matters.

I can't say I've ever heard of a good mid who isn't good for even 12d, 2t, 5cp per game. The problem is the volume of involvements are really less than half of what they need to be. Substantial improvement is needed there, and seeing him bridge that gap, it's probably a gap too large, to be realistic.

Cox could easily play on for 4 or 5 years. He only has to keep fit. He spends most of his time close to goal and he won't be getting any shorter in the years to come.

With Cox I actually agree he can play on a few more years for the very reasons you're thinking. My original comments with Cox though are that at his age, he's not improving. He is who he is.

Without another able key forward outside of Mihocek, Collingwood probably need to continue playing him. He's more someone you just have to be satisfied with having one game changing game every 10 games, two passable games, and seven games where he's a liability.

Cox is one where had Collingwood secured a Ben Brown or even a Josh Jenkins, he's straight out of the best 22. He's a suboptimal component. It's more-so that he is played because there isn't a reliable alternative.
 
One thing i did notice is that we are all impressed with Daicos' year. A real 'breakout' and now one of our important players.

Interestingly, on the surface his stats are the same as 2019. But he only played 5 games last year.
Obviously he has been more effective and is kicking goals.
I think Daicos' composure went to another level this year, which added significant hurt to his disposals.
 
The likes of Moore/Howe/Maynard/Crisp all are exceptional defenders. The aim from here, from a back half perspective that I would have is finding another 2-3 to pair with them to complete that defence. Quaynor showed he is capable and could develop into one of those. So it's basically another good key defender - maybe Kelly could switch back and be that guy if he improves dramatically. And then another good general defender is probably needed from externally unless some other existing players switches back and has surprising success. WHE maybe? If there is anyone internal who could. Or maybe a Murphy if he finds a way to really take off this preseason.
Quaynor I see as having wing/mid potential longterm. For mine it should be a question of when not if that transition is made. Greenwood is a short term solution for 2021 only, but perhaps there's an opportunity for Bianco or one of our 2020 draftees as that small defender. I'm also intrigued as to whether it's a role Callum Brown could play. In terms of a tall back Keane has looked good at VFL level, but was out of his depth in his senior appearance. Maybe McMahon starts his Collingwood journey back? Hine did describe him as a KF and KD. As mid sized defender Madgen showed he's more than capable, we don't need everyone to be a star and I thought he played his role well. I hope Murphy starts commanding a senior spot though and I reckon that spot is his best bet. The other option from our 2020 squad is Ruscoe, but I hope we persist with him up forward at least for now, ditto Kelly.
 
Quaynor I see as having wing/mid potential longterm. For mine it should be a question of when not if that transition is made. Greenwood is a short term solution for 2021 only, but perhaps there's an opportunity for Bianco or one of our 2020 draftees as that small defender. I'm also intrigued as to whether it's a role Callum Brown could play. In terms of a tall back Keane has looked good at VFL level, but was out of his depth in his senior appearance. Maybe McMahon starts his Collingwood journey back? Hine did describe him as a KF and KD. As mid sized defender Madgen showed he's more than capable, we don't need everyone to be a star and I thought he played his role well. I hope Murphy starts commanding a senior spot though and I reckon that spot is his best bet. The other option from our 2020 squad is Ruscoe, but I hope we persist with him up forward at least for now, ditto Kelly.

I'm not as optimistic about Quaynor or his upside as you are regarding specifically to a capacity to play other positions. I don't think other than in defence he can offer anything else, anywhere else. I don't feel like he'll become that kind of accumulator or ball winner to be as effective through the midfield or on a wing. I haven't seen that evidence. I think he'll be the modern Heritier. Perhaps slightly better able to balance the combination of offense and defence at the same time. But can generate drive and can win 1v1s what I'd be looking at/expecting.

Bianco's best position is a question. His best role may be as something like a Caleb Daniel equivalent. If he's forward, I don't see him as a crumber or pressure forward. He's more a high motor, skilled forward, and a very uncontested one at that. He's a well performed junior, but there are a lot of holes/flaws that make his AFL viability a question.

McMahon without games this year is a question mark. I don't think he'll be good enough to play as a key forward (8d, 3m, low scoreboard impact in 2019) and as an athletic marking type my instinct would be to put him back and see how he goes.
 
Tyler Brown will be a gun. I don't understand those who question him.

It’s his ball winning for me. I doubt that he can become a 25ppg AFL mid because he’s never been an accumulator at TAC, VFL or AFL level.

For me entering his 4th year in the system it’s now a case of expecting him not to get to that level and being surprised if he does. Watch out if he can though because I think it’s more likely he does it as a contest to contest type and with his tricks he’d be elite.
 

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