Prediction 2021 Best 22

[Vicky Park]

We have by far the biggest crop from the 2020 draft and a total of 23 players on our list (54%) who have a shared experience of 95 games total experience.

a couple of those like Quaynor and Siershould be best 22 but the rest are still fairly unknown so we are going to find out a lot in the months ahead

I think this is a pretty unusual list situation and if Hine has weaved some magic with his selections happy days. There of course is also the real possibility that not many in that big group make it and we are left with a big hole in the list.

going to be an interesting season

GC I’ve been reading your posts with increasing unease. The bolded is especially scary.

In my head I know you are right with your predictions, but in my heart I hope you are wrong.

I was baying for change at the end of 2020, and I got it. As you know I wasn’t all that troubled by our trading out of players, although I wasn’t happy with the method or returns.

I think we are a middling team, and we’ll need a lot to go right to move higher up the ladder. But when, during the course of a typical season under Bucks, does a lot go right? 2018 seems to have been one out of the bag. And even in that season we were hurt by injuries to our better players.

 

[sr36]

GC I’ve been reading your posts with increasing unease. The bolded is especially scary.

In my head I know you are right with your predictions, but in my heart I hope you are wrong.

I was baying for change at the end of 2020, and I got it. As you know I wasn’t all that troubled by our trading out of players, although I wasn’t happy with the method or returns.

I think we are a middling team, and we’ll need a lot to go right to move higher up the ladder. But when, during the course of a typical season under Bucks, does a lot go right? 2018 seems to have been one out of the bag. And even in that season we were hurt by injuries to our better players.

The one thing to hold on to is that only other year that we were this negative about our chances was 2018. May we have a year like that where redemption songs were sung with delight.

 

[Apex36]

Treloar might not have been good at running for defensive purposes, so your argument about two way running may be true, but he never stopped running. Does anyone get to more contests or present as an option more often then Treloar? His running will be a loss. Particularly considering we need a boost around the contest and in transition, which is what his running gave us.

We hadn't moved on from Phillips. He played every game until injured. Him not playing wing might very well have changed now that we're going back to full quarters with less interchanges.

The last three times I've heard Bucks talk about the upcoming season, he's expressed concern about the longer quarters and fewer interchanges and teams running out matches. I don't think he'd be as concerned if we still had Phillips and Treloar on the list.

Phillips maybe, but AT will struggle to remain fit this year. His body has barely held together for the last two years. With rotations reduced again this year I’m expecting him to become a core member of the WB rehab group.

 

[manicpie]

Content warning: This is what I want, not what the club would ever do.

We should play Pendles half forward and Steele (when available) forward. It'll improve our delivery and goal scoring ability straight away and enable us to play both Jordy and Elliott in midfield (which will also increase our goals from midfield, further easing the pressure on our forwards). Just a better mix and enables the team to start developing for a post-Pendlebury world. It might also prolongue his effectiveness and enable him to contribute well into his late 30s.

Unlike others, I think Elliott should predominantly play midfield. He improved us so much when he went in there at times last season. His movement at ground level made us more dynamic. He's also a more natural insider than Sidebottom.

Forward line (once Steele comes in):

Henry, Mihocek, Pendles
Steele, Cox, Ruscoe

Midfield:

Centre line: Daicos, De Goey, Noble
Ruck: Grundy, Adams, Elliott
Bench: Sier, T Brown (+ another depending on match ups)

Of course Pendles and Steele (and Crisp, IQ, etc) would rotate through the midfield in the above system, but I just prefer the mix both for the now and for the development of the team.

We have also focused predominantly on midfield and defence in our last few drafts. The above approach gets some genuine talent into our forward line where we lack it and creates some more space for our young talent to move into if they develop as well hope. Fast forward a year of playing the above structure and all of a sudden Sier and T Brown have played 30 to 50 games and you've got Macrae, Reef and Rantall types pushing up from below. You then add the greatest football talent in the history of all the universes in Nicky D and things are starting to look peachy.

Just my 4 cents, anyway.

Everything you have said would require a big sacrifice from Bucks and the club. Pendles has no forward craft whatsoever, is way too slow and isn't the best mark. Sidey on the other hand hasn't really shown any thing to suggest he would be a 30 to 40 goal forward, people are still going by his under 18's 10 goal performance, and is also quite slow. The best thing for us if your theory is implemented is that we would end up close to last, which would give us a top pick for next year and also develop the kids. The negative, would be that Bucks would never do it because it would end his coaching career. I am of the opinion that Bucks game style since 2018 has been more about him, because he keeps us in contention with that defensive game plan, but it just doesn't win flags today

 

[sr36]

Phillips maybe, but AT will struggle to remain fit this year. His body has barely held together for the last two years. With rotations reduced again this year I’m expecting him to become a core member of the WB rehab group.

You could be right, but he's not in Daniel Wells territory yet. I think we're exaggerating his run of injuries. He played every game in 2019. Treloar's only had two injury interrupted seasons out of his 9 and even in 2018 when he did his hammies - he still played 17 games. He's got up and run around like a lunatic most weeks throughout his career. Adams and JDG have been bigger concerns regarding injuries TBH. I definitely wouldn't bet on him missing a heap of games or on him not running around like an energiser bunny.

 

[stormskye]

Everything you have said would require a big sacrifice from Bucks and the club. Pendles has no forward craft whatsoever, is way too slow and isn't the best mark. Sidey on the other hand hasn't really shown any thing to suggest he would be a 30 to 40 goal forward, people are still going by his under 18's 10 goal performance, and is also quite slow. The best thing for us if your theory is implemented is that we would end up close to last, which would give us a top pick for next year and also develop the kids. The negative, would be that Bucks would never do it because it would end his coaching career. I am of the opinion that Bucks game style since 2018 has been more about him, because he keeps us in contention with that defensive game plan, but it just doesn't win flags today

This is what frustrates me to no end, we don’t try and win games, we try to hold on so to speak. It’s horrible, and not a blueprint for success

 

[manicpie]

This is what frustrates me to no end, we don’t try and win games, we try to hold on so to speak. It’s horrible, and not a blueprint for success

There are quite a few in the media that believe he is coaching for survival rather than ultimate success, that's why he shouldn't be given a contract extention

 

[jackcass]

Two-way running has been a weakness for several years and only made worse by loss of Treloar and Phillips. We’re going to leak some horribly easy rebound goals when we turn it over. Shifting Noble to a wing will help a bit but overall I share your concerns and think we’ll be over-run by fitter/faster sides.


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Really? Treloar was arguably the worst 2-way runner in our team, and while Phillips always worked hard back into defence he lacked the pace to catch or even stick with an opponent. It's the reason he always got a head start on the field on the rebound transition. I'm hoping we see a significant improvement in our 2-way running this year over last with the changes to personnel.

 

[AmericanMustard]

You could be right, but he's not in Daniel Wells territory yet. I think we're exaggerating his run of injuries. He played every game in 2019. Treloar's only had two injury interrupted seasons out of his 9 and even in 2018 when he did his hammies - he still played 17 games. He's got up and run around like a lunatic most weeks throughout his career. Adams and JDG have been bigger concerns regarding injuries TBH. I definitely wouldn't bet on him missing a heap of games or on him not running around like an energiser bunny.

I’m with you I don’t think he will miss games, he’s never really done it before. I’m however opposite of the view about his running ability. Imo something happened with his injury in 2018 (physically or mentally) which has meant his running ability has diminished quite significantly. I’m not sure what his training data says but the eye test says the last 2 years his line breaking ability was no where near the standard of his first 6-7 years in the league, his defensive running was poor at best before and it’s now non existent, factor in his ball use it’s obvious why the club were desperate to move him on.

The new rules will help players like him going forward, but he’s going to stand out like a clown against sides who move the ball quickly through the ground though.

 

[sr36]

I’m with you I don’t think he will miss games, he’s never really done it before. I’m however opposite of the view about his running ability. Imo something happened with his injury in 2018 (physically or mentally) which has meant his running ability has diminished quite significantly. I’m not sure what his training data says but the eye test says the last 2 years his line breaking ability was no where near the standard of his first 6-7 years in the league, his defensive running was poor at best before and it’s now non existent, factor in his ball use it’s obvious why the club were desperate to move him on.

The new rules will help players like him going forward, but he’s going to stand out like a clown against sides who move the ball quickly through the ground though.

Yeah, he's lost some of the breakaway pace. Hard to tell without having seen him live recently, but on tv jeez he's on screen a lot - he's got to be doing some serious kms for that to occur.

 

[Matrix10]

Content warning: This is what I want, not what the club would ever do.

We should play Pendles half forward and Steele (when available) forward. It'll improve our delivery and goal scoring ability straight away and enable us to play both Jordy and Elliott in midfield (which will also increase our goals from midfield, further easing the pressure on our forwards). Just a better mix and enables the team to start developing for a post-Pendlebury world. It might also prolongue his effectiveness and enable him to contribute well into his late 30s.

Unlike others, I think Elliott should predominantly play midfield. He improved us so much when he went in there at times last season. His movement at ground level made us more dynamic. He's also a more natural insider than Sidebottom.

Forward line (once Steele comes in):

Henry, Mihocek, Pendles
Steele, Cox, Ruscoe

Midfield:

Centre line: Daicos, De Goey, Noble
Ruck: Grundy, Adams, Elliott
Bench: Sier, T Brown (+ another depending on match ups)

Of course Pendles and Steele (and Crisp, IQ, etc) would rotate through the midfield in the above system, but I just prefer the mix both for the now and for the development of the team.

We have also focused predominantly on midfield and defence in our last few drafts. The above approach gets some genuine talent into our forward line where we lack it and creates some more space for our young talent to move into if they develop as well hope. Fast forward a year of playing the above structure and all of a sudden Sier and T Brown have played 30 to 50 games and you've got Macrae, Reef and Rantall types pushing up from below. You then add the greatest football talent in the history of all the universes in Nicky D and things are starting to look peachy.

Just my 4 cents, anyway.

I like it very much BTC, now can you play with that magnetic board for one more move, Darcy Moore too Centre Half Forward, grazie

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

I expect Keane to get a good block of games this year.

Buckley pretty much said that Keane will play a fair bit of senior footy this year.
Wonder if Keane comes in, and we move Moore forward!!

 

[unplugged]

Yeah, he's lost some of the breakaway pace. Hard to tell without having seen him live recently, but on tv jeez he's on screen a lot - he's got to be doing some serious kms for that to occur.

Yeah, he's also usually the one running next to a ball-carrying team mate flailing his arms around begging for the ball, instead of putting a block on

OK, I'll stop now. Thread is a bit off track.

 

[Mick F]

Everything you have said would require a big sacrifice from Bucks and the club. Pendles has no forward craft whatsoever, is way too slow and isn't the best mark. Sidey on the other hand hasn't really shown any thing to suggest he would be a 30 to 40 goal forward, people are still going by his under 18's 10 goal performance, and is also quite slow. The best thing for us if your theory is implemented is that we would end up close to last, which would give us a top pick for next year and also develop the kids. The negative, would be that Bucks would never do it because it would end his coaching career. I am of the opinion that Bucks game style since 2018 has been more about him, because he keeps us in contention with that defensive game plan, but it just doesn't win flags today

??? Has Bucks ever presented as a dead set a-hole, that places his personal interest above the greater good??

 

[unplugged]

Buckley pretty much said that Keane will play a fair bit of senior footy this year.
Wonder if Keane comes in, and we move Moore forward!!

I think the future view would be to have Keane take over from Roughead, and Moore will be alongside him. If only we'd recruited Balta, he'd have probably made Roughy redundant by now.

 

[Big Bryza]

Greenwood should be depth this year and nothing more. He preseason form has been atrocious.

Pardon?

He literally sat on the bench for the entire match against Richmond.

 

[jackcass]

As I wrote my previous post I realised we'll hopefully be in a similar position to replace Pendlebury with a FA in the same way that they'll be able to replace Cotchin/Riewoldt. However I think the end will come suddenly for those two, whereas Pendles will be a year-by-year proposition like Burgoyne.

I just hope he dwindles down to next-to-nothing as far as salary goes so we can have him overlap with a Taranto, Petracca, Kelly, Merrett, etc. so that we can have our cake and eat it, too.

Knowing our luck we'd have to pry Merrett out via a trade (matched RFA) which would probably cost us our 2022 first, Sier and another young promising player.

It's the good clubs getting RFA's across without any matching which grinds my gears the most.

We get a reported $750-800K become available post this year just off the Beams payout. We've also front ended anything we pay for Treloar apparently. We don't have any massively increasing earners coming out of contract. Pendles would likely be on reduced salary for limited tenure if he decides to go again. I'm not a huge Merrett fan, prefer Kelly or Dunkley, but if we want him then we can certainly look to put him on significant $$$'s in 2022. Bombers choose to match then they can keep him. See how they go signing all the other players they have coming out of contract this year.

 

[Big Bryza]

Two-way running has been a weakness for several years and only made worse by loss of Treloar and Phillips. We’re going to leak some horribly easy rebound goals when we turn it over. Shifting Noble to a wing will help a bit but overall I share your concerns and think we’ll be over-run by fitter/faster sides.


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Treloar was deplorable defensively.

 

[Big Bryza]

That's by far and away the worst part about Free Agency. Provided their Riewoldts, Cotchins, etc. can justifiably earn decent coin until they retire, they'll no doubt replace them with premium FA players.

Unfortunately the days seem to be over where a good team loses a generational player and it truly sets them back.

Father Time catches everybody though, free agency or not.

Hawthorn were the pioneers of picking off the best Free Agents in the business (and winning flags) but once your core group departs. you'll see a big slide down the ladder eventually.

Port, Brisbane and Geelong are right on the heels of Richmond. It also comes down to whether the players have that burning motivation to go to the well one more time for the tigers.

 

[sr36]

Yeah, he's also usually the one running next to a ball-carrying team mate flailing his arms around begging for the ball, instead of putting a block on

OK, I'll stop now. Thread is a bit off track.

I like him, but there is a fair bit of me me me in the way he plays footy, handled the trade and generally talks in the press.

 

[Big Bryza]

Treloar might not have been good at running for defensive purposes, so your argument about two way running may be true, but he never stopped running. Does anyone get to more contests or present as an option more often then Treloar? His running will be a loss. Particularly considering we need a boost around the contest and in transition, which is what his running gave us.

We hadn't moved on from Phillips. He played every game until injured. Him not playing wing might very well have changed now that we're going back to full quarters with less interchanges.

The last three times I've heard Bucks talk about the upcoming season, he's expressed concern about the longer quarters and fewer interchanges and teams running out matches. I don't think he'd be as concerned if we still had Phillips and Treloar on the list.

Treloars 35 meaningless touches won't be missed. Daicos will step into that midfielder role this year and show us how it's done.

 

[sr36]

Treloars 35 meaningless touches won't be missed. Daicos will step into that midfielder role this year and show us how it's done.

With Treloar and Phillips gone. I'm not worried about the stats or their disposals - obviously if we can get the ball into Daicos's hands rather than either of those two that's a big win. What I'm worried about is how often we'll have one less at a contest, one less clogging space like Phillips did, one less presenting as an option in transition - like they both did. If you lose running power, it's a matter of incremental cuts that may go somewhat unnoticed - but they accumulate. Bring on Rantall - ASAP.

 

[Scodog10]

Treloar might not have been good at running for defensive purposes, so your argument about two way running may be true, but he never stopped running. Does anyone get to more contests or present as an option more often then Treloar? His running will be a loss. Particularly considering we need a boost around the contest and in transition, which is what his running gave us.

We hadn't moved on from Phillips. He played every game until injured. Him not playing wing might very well have changed now that we're going back to full quarters with less interchanges.

The last three times I've heard Bucks talk about the upcoming season, he's expressed concern about the longer quarters and fewer interchanges and teams running out matches. I don't think he'd be as concerned if we still had Phillips and Treloar on the list.

The comments were that our two way running is worse off for losing Treloar. That’s what I was addressing and it’s factually false. I’m not doubting he covered a lot of ground in offence how could you not with all those dinky one twos and sideways possessions. What I’m saying though is that he worked much harder in offence than defence. I will happily take the hit on offence given how poor he was on defense.

We had moved on from Phillips in the context of this discussion. Yes he played those games, but he was not the same gut running winger we had in 17-19 and his impact was greatly reduced. With normalised numbers every area of his game dropped away except scoreboard impact because he spent much more time forward. Did it hurt us in 2020? Not, IMO, because Daicos stepped up.

I’m not going to buy into your speculation on Buckley because if we were that concerned we’d have moved others on.

 

[LuckyLee]

Really? Treloar was arguably the worst 2-way runner in our team, and while Phillips always worked hard back into defence he lacked the pace to catch or even stick with an opponent. It's the reason he always got a head start on the field on the rebound transition. I'm hoping we see a significant improvement in our 2-way running this year over last with the changes to personnel.

Do you think Sier, DeGoey, Elliott & Daicos are going to be better at running back to defend than Phillips and Treloar? I don’t.

Pendles and Sidey were never great at it either and have only gotten slower. Adams and Noble (and maybe Tyler Brown?) are the only two of our Best 22 mids who I regard as strong two-way runners.

I think we’re gonna get cut-up on counterattack a lot this season but hope I’m wrong. Hopefully Macrae/Rantall/Reef can force their way into the side and improve the running power balance.


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[domus]

I hope not. He was a liability against the Tigers and Geelong.

Greenwood was best 22 until injured. He may need time to find form. I love what he brings.