AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal

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TheJanuaryMan

Club Legend
Jul 29, 2009
1,540
2,300
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
G'day all

It's that time of the year again. Ready for another year of analysis and chat about the Brownlow. Let's see if the good run can continue for those here.

Pre-season stable for me:

Patrick Cripps: $7
Marcus Bontempelli: $11
Zac Merrett: $26
Toby Greene: $81
Jy Simpkin: $101

The lay opportunity: Matt Rowell at $17. No player has won the Medal in the modern era after playing five career games before their winning season. Too many question marks for this one for me.

Post away folks.
 

shepherdodin

Debutant
Aug 19, 2020
144
156
AFL Club
Sydney
Thanks for making the thread TJM! Keen for this year!

Of those odds you posted I like Merrett right now.

Luke Parker $67 I don't mind, though I don't necessarily think he'll win it. Even though the swans wont finish in the 8. They're a team on the rise and he pretty much carries them amongst the kids. Did very well last year for a bottom 4 side. Kennedy I don't think will take many votes off him, he's very good but past his prime these days. Heeney being back from injury the only real threat to take votes away.

My tip is Boak will have another good year, and Petracca/Steele all in with a real shot against Neale. I tip Bont to have a stellar year, if the pre-season is anything at all to go by. Treloar and Macrae will be playing somewhat similar roles I feel and take votes off each other.

The team multis are up on TAB already. Tempted to throw away some money on:

Neale
Cripps
Merrett
Fyfe
Mitchell
Boak
Dusty
Steele
Parker
Bont

@ 318.86 for the lolz.

Though I don't know if I'm silly enough to throw away cash even before a ball is bounced.
 

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LionsOrDieTrion

Senior List
Jun 23, 2020
222
276
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Doing my own count this year and will be highly active. Let's go!

First bet: Team Votes Multi - Cripps/Martin/Petracca/Merrett/Neale/Boak/Steele/Rowell @77.73
 
Last edited:

Crownlow

Draftee
Sep 23, 2019
15
57
AFL Club
Carlton
Hey guys long time lurker.
Decided at brownlow time last year that i will do a live count during the season. Will try to watch all the games and post my counts -

Carlton v Richmond

Top 10 players based off machine learning since 2013s brownlow medal count -

YearPlayerTeamRoundDisposalsGoalsHitoutsTacklesClearancesFreesContested PosessionsContested MarksGoal AssitsMarginVotes
2021​
Martin, DustinRichmond
1​
8.20%​
13.30%​
-
9.30%​
12.50%​
6.70%​
9.60%​
28.60%​
36.40%​
41.70%​
1.981​
2021​
Bolton, ShaiRichmond
1​
6.60%​
6.70%​
-
2.30%​
22.50%​
-6.70%​
9.60%​
-
9.10%​
41.70%​
0.924​
2021​
Prestia, DionRichmond
1​
6.60%​
--
9.30%​
22.50%​
6.70%​
8.20%​
--
41.70%​
0.689​
2021​
Riewoldt, JackRichmond
1​
2.70%​
26.70%​
-
11.60%​
--
4.10%​
14.30%​
-
41.70%​
0.399​
2021​
Graham, JackRichmond
1​
8.80%​
--
7.00%​
12.50%​
6.70%​
5.50%​
-
9.10%​
41.70%​
0.206​
2021​
Curnow, EdwardCarlton
1​
7.70%​
--
2.60%​
20.60%​
-4.00%​
10.10%​
10.00%​
10.00%​
-41.70%​
0.053​
2021​
Walsh, SamCarlton
1​
8.20%​
--
7.90%​
17.60%​
-8.00%​
9.40%​
-
10.00%​
-41.70%​
-0.004​
2021​
Cripps, PatrickCarlton
1​
7.40%​
--
10.50%​
14.70%​
8.00%​
9.40%​
-
10.00%​
-41.70%​
-0.004​
2021​
Edwards, ShaneRichmond
1​
7.20%​
--
7.00%​
7.50%​
6.70%​
8.20%​
-
9.10%​
41.70%​
-0.006​
2021​
Saad, AdamCarlton
1​
6.60%​
--
10.50%​
5.90%​
8.00%​
7.20%​
10.00%​
-
-41.70%​
-0.016​

This is based off a 25 point losing margin - but the game was much closer with a blow out it the last 5 minutes - if i null the margin

YearPlayerTeamRoundDisposalsGoalsHitoutsTacklesClearancesFreesContested PosessionsContested MarksGoal AssitsMarginVotes
2021​
Martin, DustinRichmond
1​
8.20%​
13.30%​
-
9.30%​
12.50%​
6.70%​
9.60%​
28.60%​
36.40%​
-
1.226​
2021​
Bolton, ShaiRichmond
1​
6.60%​
6.70%​
-
2.30%​
22.50%​
-6.70%​
9.60%​
-
9.10%​
-
0.573​
2021​
Curnow, EdwardCarlton
1​
7.70%​
--
2.60%​
20.60%​
-4.00%​
10.10%​
10.00%​
10.00%​
-
0.505​
2021​
Prestia, DionRichmond
1​
6.60%​
--
9.30%​
22.50%​
6.70%​
8.20%​
---
0.44​
2021​
Cripps, PatrickCarlton
1​
7.40%​
--
10.50%​
14.70%​
8.00%​
9.40%​
-
10.00%​
-
0.339​
2021​
Walsh, SamCarlton
1​
8.20%​
--
7.90%​
17.60%​
-8.00%​
9.40%​
-
10.00%​
-
0.313​
2021​
Graham, JackRichmond
1​
8.80%​
--
7.00%​
12.50%​
6.70%​
5.50%​
-
9.10%​
-
-0.002​
2021​
Saad, AdamCarlton
1​
6.60%​
--
10.50%​
5.90%​
8.00%​
7.20%​
10.00%​
--
-0.01​
2021​
Riewoldt, JackRichmond
1​
2.70%​
26.70%​
-
11.60%​
--
4.10%​
14.30%​
--
-0.011​
2021​
Edwards, ShaneRichmond
1​
7.20%​
--
7.00%​
7.50%​
6.70%​
8.20%​
-
9.10%​
-
-0.013​


My Votes

3. D. Martin
2. S. Walsh
1. S. Bolton
 
Last edited:

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MRCB12

Debutant
May 21, 2015
118
201
AFL Club
Richmond
3. Martin
2. Walsh
1. Graham

Settled with Graham as his big last quarter fresh in umpires minds. High disposal count. But can see a few taking the 1. Bolton and Riewoldt especially
 

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