Prediction 2021 Consensus Best 22 [DONE FOR ANOTHER YEAR]

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Matty411

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 21, 2012
7,114
17,886
AFL Club
Carlton
The Carlton Consensus Best 22 is BACK
Welcome to the returning regulars and to the newcomers who may be stumbling across this for the first time.

This post will not be short, but I will get to the point. I’m here to save your boredom; rescue you from the postseason blues and help deliver you a groupthink team that Teague and the Coaches will absolutely use as a key part of their thinning going into Season 2021 (okay… not really. But I’m sure they’d at least peek at it, right?)

2020 was a year like no other in our living history, culminating in a strange, disjointed postseason that means we now have Eddie Betts - a Carlton legend - finishing his career on the ‘rookie list’. We also have some super exciting new recruits who will push for selection right away. Good times at Ikon Park.

To date, we’ve had 10 changes to the list for season 2021.

Players who have moved on: Kade Simpson, Matthew Kreuzer, Darcy Lang, Finbar O’Dwyer, Ben Silvagni, Hugh Goddard, Callum Moore, Harrison Macreadie, Cam Polson and Fraser Phillips.

We also welcome the following players to our selection mindset for the upcoming year: Zac Williams, Adam Saad, Lachie Fogarty as well as some soon-to-be-welcomed draftees.

So, before we begin I’d like to reorient you all to the way this will happen, as well as providing you some past data to chew on.

The Rules
We will be choosing the best available 22 players to hypothetically line up for Round 1, 2021 against the (presumably) Tigers at the MCG – essentially, our best starting team on paper. We’ll go through each area of the ground: first the midfield; then the backs; then our forwards; our starting ruck; and finally the final makeup of our bench and emergencies.

As always, we have to use a few assumptions as guides:

1. All players will be fit and eligible for the round one side, this includes Charlie, Harry, Caleb & Brodie (hopefully no one else deserves mention here).
2. We will need a healthy balance of players in each part of the ground i.e. balance of talls/smalls to make a realistic starting side.
3. There are no indiscretions among players leading to disqualification from selection
4. Any player on the list at present are eligible for selection. If some are missing, it may be due to lack of polling slots or the fact they're not (or were not) on our list at the commencement of voting.
5. You should independently choose who you believe will be the best players in each respective position to help us win Round 1 against the old enemy – and likely to continue to be a big part of our team for 2021.

Voting
1. First, we will vote for the 5 starting midfielders (including wings) and your rotation player for bench spot #1 (SIX TOTAL - VOTE COMPLETE)
2. Then we will vote for the 6 starting defenders and your rotation player who will take bench spot #2 (SEVEN TOTAL - VOTE COMPLETE)
3. We will then adjourn for a brief vote to decide our starting ruckman (JUST THE ONE - VOTE COMPLETE)
4. Next, we will vote for our 6 starting forwards and one rotation player for bench spots #3 (SEVEN TOTAL - VOTE COMPLETE)
5. In another break from tradition and in what will surely create heated discussion, we will then vote for the final bench spot and position in our 22 - able to make this vote knowing our Best 21 and the positional mix of the side. Players who receive multiple votes in any previous area of the ground will be eligible for this vote
6. We’ll then put an open vote to decide the emergencies (with priority going to those who earned vote/s previously - in the case of lack of space) (VOTE COMPLETE)

NB:
Players will be ruled out for following position/s once they are successful in a particular area of the ground (of account of us not being able to have two of the same player).

Consensus 2021 Line up
FB: L. Plowman (127) - L. Jones (130) - A. Saad (130)
HB: S. Docherty (130) - J. Weitering (130) - T. Williamson (97)
C: S. Walsh (152) - E. Curnow (121) - Z. Williams (144)
HF: Z. Fisher (117) - H. McKay (133) - J. Martin (129)
FF: M. McGovern (68) - C. Curnow (108) - E. Betts (87)
R: T. De Koning (86) - P. Cripps (156) - W. Setterfield (151)
I: S. Petrevski-Seton (49) - C. Marchbank (77) - J. Silvagni (61) - M. Murphy (31)
EMG: L. Casboult (38), M. Gibbons (28), D. Cuningham (24), N. Newman (22)

Now, for those who wish for a little extra light reading...

The Carlton Consensus Evolution
Brackets ( ) denote amounts of votes received in a given year.

Consensus 2018 Line up
FB: Ciaran Byrne (98) - Liam Jones (156) - Lachie Plowman (161)
HB: Caleb Marchbank (164) - Jacob Weitering (156) - Kade Simpson (150)
C: Sam Petrevski-Seton (175) - Ed Curnow (157) - Marc Murphy (175)
HF: Charlie Curnow (150) - Levi Casboult (108) - Jarrod Pickett (143)
FF: Matthew Wright (119) - Harry McKay (101) - Jack Silvagni (135)
R: Matthew Kreuzer (181) - Patrick Cripps (183) - Matthew Kennedy (177)
I: Tom Williamson (76) - David Cuningham (67) - Zac Fisher (64) - Paddy Dow (67)
EMG: Darcy Lang (66) - Jarrod Garlett (39) - Aaron Mullett (19)

Actual 2018 Line up
B: Kade Simpson, Liam Jones, Caleb Marchbank
HB: Dale Thomas, Jacob Weitering, Lachie Plowman
C: Aaron Mullett, Patrick Cripps, Marc Murphy
HF: Zac Fisher, Levi Casboult, Jarrod Garlett
F: Matthew Wright, Charlie Curnow, Jack Silvagni
FOL: Matthew Kreuzer, Matthew Kennedy, Sam Petrevski-Seton
I/C: Ed Curnow, Ciaran Byrne, Paddy Dow, Jed Lamb
EMG: David Cuningham, Cameron Polson, Harry McKay, Cameron O'Shea

Differences to Consensus 22 (4)
Named in Round 1: Thomas, Mullett, Garlett, Lamb
Didn’t make the cut: Pickett, Cuningham (EMG), McKay (EMG), Williamson
-------------------------------------------------

Consensus 2019 Line up
FB: Lachie Plowman (121) - Liam Jones (110) - Kade Simpson (146)
HB: Tom Williamson (105) - Jacob Weitering (150) - Caleb Marchbank (151)
C: Marc Murphy (99) - Ed Curnow (104) - Zac Fisher (118)
HF: Mitch McGovern (147) - Charlie Curnow (149) - S. Petrevski-Seton (114)
FF: Will Setterfield (53) - Harry McKay (149) - Alex Fasolo (116)
R: Matthew Kreuzer (132) - Patrick Cripps (152) - Paddy Dow (144)
I: Nic Newman (87) - Matthew Kennedy (87) - Jarrod Pickett (51) - Sam Walsh (40)
EMG: Lochie O'Brien (17) - Dale Thomas (8) - David Cuningham (6) - Tomas Bugg (2)

Actual 2019 Lineup
B: Jarrod Garlett, Liam Jones, Lachie Plowman
HB: Kade Simpson, Jacob Weitering, Nic Newman
C: Marc Murphy, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Zac Fisher
HF: Michael Gibbons, Charlie Curnow, Sam Walsh
F: Ed Curnow, Mitch McGovern, Harry McKay
Foll: Andrew Phillips, Patrick Cripps, Paddy Dow
Int: Dale Thomas, Will Setterfield, Alex Fasolo, David Cuningham
Emg: Cameron Polson, Lochie O'Brien, Levi Casboult, Matthew Lobbe

Differences to Consensus 22 (5)
Named in Round 1: Garlett, Thomas, Phillips, Fasolo, Cuningham
Didn’t make the cut: Marchbank, Williamson, Kreuzer, Kennedy, Pickett
-------------------------------------------------

Consensus 2020 Line up
FB: Lachie Plowman (97%), Liam Jones (99%), Kade Simpson (78%)
HB: Sam Docherty (97%), Jacob Weitering (99%), Caleb Marchbank (74%)
C: Sam Walsh (99%), Patrick Cripps (99%), Will Setterfield (97%)
HF: Mitch McGovern (96%), Harry McKay (99%), Jack Martin (94%)
FF: Eddie Betts (98%), Charlie Curnow (97%), David Cuningham (80%)
FOL: Matthew Kreuzer*, Ed Curnow (96%), Marc Murphy (96%)
INT: Sam Petrevski-Seton (63%), Jack Silvagni (53%), Zac Fisher (69%), Jack Newnes (32%)
EMG: Nic Newman (61%), Matthew Kennedy (22%), Michael Gibbons (30%), Levi Casboult*

Actual 2020 Line up
B: Lachie Plowman, Liam Jones, Sam Docherty
HB: Nic Newman, Jacob Weitering, Sam Petrevski-Seton
C: Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps, Jack Newnes
HF: Paddy Dow, Mitch McGovern, Jack Martin
F: Michael Gibbons, Levi Casboult, Jack Silvagni
R: Matthew Kreuzer, Marc Murphy, Ed Curnow
INT: Kade Simpson, Will Setterfield, Zac Fisher, David Cuningham
EMG: not noted

Differences to Consensus 22 (4)
Named in Round 1: Newman, Casboult, Gibbons, Dow
Didn’t make the cut: Marchbank, McKay, Betts, Curnow

Now, after the world’s longest prologue, let us begin.
 
Last edited:

skadoosh

Club Legend
May 26, 2011
2,259
8,148
AFL Club
Carlton
Thanks Matty. I'd go with keeping them in, as would expect both of them to play (touch wood) at some time during 2021.

EDIT:
Just read your post properly. The title says Best 22, but your post says best side for round 1. Are we differentiating between the 2?
 

Stamos

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 30, 2010
14,145
22,295
AFL Club
Carlton
Is it a little bit early for this?
I see 4 spots genuinely up for grabs, and figure that pre-season form will go a long way to determining who wins them.

I'd leave Charlie and Kemp in as options.
 

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Matty411

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 21, 2012
7,114
17,886
AFL Club
Carlton
Usually go after we finalise the list, so once we've got our draftees and any DFAs, I'll fire it up.

Agree - Kemp and Charlie to stay in. Will also have Nic and Caleb eligible for selection.

skadoosh it will be the best 22 side line-up for Round 1. Assuming we'll have a full list to pick from, it may well double as our best 22.
 

El Topo

Premiership Player
Jun 18, 2013
3,835
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the wilderness
AFL Club
Carlton
aka the Michael Gibbons thread
 

Stamos

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 30, 2010
14,145
22,295
AFL Club
Carlton
Maybe we need a separate section for the ruckman so we dont end up with people picking 6 mids and no ruck like previous years.
The set-up of spots was good last year.
Didn't we have 7 back spots, 7 mids, 1 ruck, 6 forwards, 1 I/C?
 

CJMB

Premiership Player
Aug 30, 2017
3,368
11,233
Melbourne
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Carlton
The set-up of spots was good last year.
Didn't we have 7 back spots, 7 mids, 1 ruck, 6 forwards, 1 I/C?
From memory, yeah I arranged it similarly to that. 6+1 defenders, 5+2 mids, 6+1 forwards, 1 ruck.

Also ran with ‘every player is fit’ for hypothetical round 1 selection.

 

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Ash24

Team Captain
Nov 3, 2020
342
1,096
AFL Club
Carlton
Predicting none of Levi, Newnes, Gibbons, Newman will feature in best 22, but most if not all will start round 1
I reckon Newnes might be left out. I hope they give an opportunity to someone like Willo or SPS on a wing instead. I've heard even Kemp can play on a wing, like Setters did in 2019 too when recovering from his ACL. Even someone like Fogarty or Cuningham to play on the wing and on-ball similarly to Walsh.

So many options, and so much depth. We are genuinely one or two pieces away from being a premiership contender, and I love it!
 

CJMB

Premiership Player
Aug 30, 2017
3,368
11,233
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
There's always a bolter or two, so don't be surprised if a Fogarty or even a draftee flies into the Round 1 side.

Actually, might be a good exercise for me to look into how far our consensus was 'off' from Round 1 sides in the past 3 years...
Here's the last 3 consensus lineups if you want to compare them to round 1 selected teams, Matty
Here’s the results of the previous couple of years so we can track our evolution:

Consensus 2018 Lineup
FB: Ciaran Byrne (98) - Liam Jones (156) - Lachie Plowman (161)
HB: Caleb Marchbank (164) - Jacob Weitering (156) - Kade Simpson (150)
C: Sam Petrevski-Seton (175) - Ed Curnow (157) - Marc Murphy (175)
HF: Charlie Curnow (150) - Levi Casboult (108) - Jarrod Pickett (143)
FF: Matthew Wright (119) - Harry McKay (101) - Jack Silvagni (135)
R: Matthew Kreuzer (181) - Patrick Cripps (183) - Matthew Kennedy (177)
I: Tom Williamson (76) - David Cuningham (67) - Zac Fisher (64) - Paddy Dow (67)
EMG: Darcy Lang (66) - Jarrod Garlett (39) - Aaron Mullett (19)

Consensus 2019 Lineup
FB: Lachie Plowman (121) - Liam Jones (110) - Kade Simpson (146)
HB: Tom Williamson (105) - Jacob Weitering (150) - Caleb Marchbank (151)
C: Marc Murphy (99) - Ed Curnow (104) - Zac Fisher (118)
HF: Mitch McGovern (147) - Charlie Curnow (149) - S. Petrevski-Seton (114)
FF: Will Setterfield (53) - Harry McKay (149) - Alex Fasolo (116)
R: Matthew Kreuzer (132) - Patrick Cripps (152) - Paddy Dow (144)
I: Nic Newman (87) - Matthew Kennedy (87) - Jarrod Pickett (51) - Sam Walsh (40)
EMG: Lochie O'Brien (17) - Dale Thomas (8) - David Cuningham (6) - Tomas Bugg (2)

Consensus 2020 Lineup
FB: Lachie Plowman (97%), Liam Jones (99%), Kade Simpson (78%)
HB: Sam Docherty (97%), Jacob Weitering (99%), Caleb Marchbank (74%)
C: Sam Walsh (99%), Patrick Cripps (99%), Will Setterfield (97%)
HF: Mitch McGovern (96%), Harry McKay (99%), Jack Martin (94%)
FF: Eddie Betts (98%), Charlie Curnow (97%), David Cuningham (80%)
FOL: Matthew Kreuzer*, Ed Curnow (96%), Marc Murphy (96%)
INT: Sam Petrevski-Seton (63%), Jack Silvagni (53%), Zac Fisher (69%), Jack Newnes (32%)

EMG: Nic Newman (61%), Matthew Kennedy (22%), Michael Gibbons (30%), Levi Casboult*

Honourable mentions: Tom Williamson