Prediction 2021 Consensus Best 22 [DONE FOR ANOTHER YEAR]

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Pablito

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Oct 23, 2017
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Everyone has a valid opinion.

Mine is that i don't know how anyone can watch the current version of Murphy play and think that he is a positive for a contending team. People want to say that our wings are defensive wings, yet we kept getting opened up regularly. His standards are shocking for a senior player imo. His skills no better, and more than his fair share of stats are as cheap as they come.

I'm resigned to another 15 games, but i can still hope that we can move forward in being fair dinkum quicker than that.

If anyone disagrees with this, they are more than welcome to that opinion. I might be wrong and they may be right. But i deadset reckon he has the politics of selection stitched up. At least for 15 games max. Alas.

I think we can do better from Rd1.
I don't disagree with a lot of what you're saying but I do think you (and a lot of others) are taking a very pessimistic approach to his selection, he's still a good player. I would think he's a certainty to play round 1, but by round 22, who knows, I would hope guys like Dow, O'Brien, Stocker and even Gibbons or Cunningham are taking his spot in the midfield.
 

Pablito

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I dont have him as best 22. And its not indulgent optimism to want to have Dow and LOB to start getting some games strung together so we can make a better and more informed assessment of them.

I really appreciate his service to the club and he'll always be a club legend to me but i feel hes costing a list spot thats gonna hurt developing and promising youngsters.

But it is what it is. Maybe in 2021 he can have a Crawford-like send off.
Your first paragraph implies that we should be giving Dow and LOB games they haven't earned, simply to get a better look at them. I think we're past gifting games now at this stage of the rebuild. If they still can't get into the team ahead of the likes of Murphy who is at the tail end of his career and is starting to produce diminishing returns, then maybe they're not good enough to play in our midfield full stop.

I hope I'm wrong and both of those guys are best 22 by the end of the season, Im just losing hope based on the evidence.
 

Blue Rising 21

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Docherty, Plowman, Weitering, Jones, Saad, Williamson, and Marchbank.

Think Williamson def starts defence and should see upside based on last season being his first full season.

Newman unlucky. I like him but like others better. It is a pace thing For him vs Marchbank offering intercept marking.
 

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Brutalitops

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Your first paragraph implies that we should be giving Dow and LOB games they haven't earned, simply to get a better look at them. I think we're past gifting games now at this stage of the rebuild. If they still can't get into the team ahead of the likes of Murphy who is at the tail end of his career and is starting to produce diminishing returns, then maybe they're not good enough to play in our midfield full stop.

I hope I'm wrong and both of those guys are best 22 by the end of the season, Im just losing hope based on the evidence.
Gifted? Dow got 3 games. Round 1, 14, and 15. LOB got 1. In a year where the magoos were non-existent i would have like them to get a decent run at it and have the opportunity to play into form. Murphy gets games because hes Murphy. He would have to register donuts before he gets dropped.

I could have named other players ahead of Murphy, those two were just two that sprang to mind

We've now added Williams, Saad, and Fogarty and two of those are starting 18. Not sure on Fog just yet. Look, I know Murphy will get his 15 games and i wont melt in threads where he ... perhaps hasnt performed to the best of his abilities.

But really, we should have tapped him on the shoulder this year.
 

Blue Rising 21

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Everyone has a valid opinion.

Mine is that i don't know how anyone can watch the current version of Murphy play and think that he is a positive for a contending team. People want to say that our wings are defensive wings, yet we kept getting opened up regularly. His standards are shocking for a senior player imo. His skills no better, and more than his fair share of stats are as cheap as they come.

I'm resigned to another 15 games, but i can still hope that we can move forward in being fair dinkum quicker than that.

If anyone disagrees with this, they are more than welcome to that opinion. I might be wrong and they may be right. But i deadset reckon he has the politics of selection stitched up. At least for 15 games max. Alas.

I think we can do better from Rd1.
Well articulated Terry. Personally think his shoulders are busted so this leaves him running around non combative most matches. Can’t have that in the middle.

Think Teague gave him a playmakers role but I hate it. Watch him carefully and often hangs off his opponent ready to run our way. Quite a few times I watched Fisher and others close down and pressure their man, only to see the ball exit via Murphy closest opponent. That and watching Murphy trailing an opposing mid at 75% running capacity as that opponent mid kicks a goal.

Not many see this detail. Don’t want him in our side anymore.

Like you, just my opinion. I liked him years ago...not what he has become. A compromised footballer in an arena that is tough.
 

BigBreakfast

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Objectively and factually.
Not sure how valid any of those stats are given the narrative associated with when Marchy last played blocks of games. We were babysitting a bunch of skinny kids and a newbie coach, so the whole backline was being destroyed. I think Marchy will be much more successful in a competitive side. Nothing against Newman, loved that 4 goal effort and his disposal is more penetrating that Marchy. Just think Marchbank gives us more flexibility.
 

Blue Rising 21

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Newman, reads the play, finds more of the ball and uses it way better than Marchbank

I know everyone(including me) wants a younger version to come through, but I don't trust Marchbank with ball in hand
I know Newman passes the eye test most recently against Marchbank for kicking efficiency. I thought the same until a quick stat check on footy wire over their careers has Marchbank ahead on kicking efficiency, and has less clangers and turnovers. That really shocked me.

This is just stats which can mislead so I’m not 100% on above. related to this...I believe Murphy stats hide the truth behind the players net value.

Newman based on stats knows how to get more possessions Than Marchbank.

I think Newman’s appeal is based on coming to a new club and putting his best season forward, not his average season. Haven’t check this versus stats tho so may be wrong.
 

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BigBreakfast

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Newman, reads the play, finds more of the ball and uses it way better than Marchbank

I know everyone(including me) wants a younger version to come through, but I don't trust Marchbank with ball in hand
I hope Marchbank is given a reasonable opportunity when he gets a crack at it. Not just a LOB at it. He offers a great deal of flexibility in the backline and is hard at it. Still waiting to see some of these vaunted stats.
 

Arr0w

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I know Newman passes the eye test most recently against Marchbank for kicking efficiency. I thought the same until a quick stat check on footy wire over their careers has Marchbank ahead on kicking efficiency, and has less clangers and turnovers. That really shocked me.

This is just stats which can mislead so I’m not 100% on above. related to this...I believe Murphy stats hide the truth behind the players net value.

Newman based on stats knows how to get more possessions Than Marchbank.

I think Newman’s appeal is based on coming to a new club and putting his best season forward, not his average season. Haven’t check this versus stats tho so may be wrong.
Over their careers, Marchbank has got the slightly better efficiency by foot, 2019, Newman has him covered. Newman also takes the game on by foot, Marchbank doesn't
 

Stamos

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All the stats. Because it's true.
Newman, reads the play, finds more of the ball and uses it way better than Marchbank

I know everyone(including me) wants a younger version to come through, but I don't trust Marchbank with ball in hand
Almost everyone of them
Given that the 3 year older Newman is behind Marchbank in Intercepts, 1%ers, contested marks and disposal efficiency, while having more turnovers and more clangers, does not point to Newman having showed "a lot more" than Marchy.

Newman is certainly a more attacking player, gets more of the ball and more meters gained, but he is not a better defender than Marchbank, and certainly not "a lot" better. Newman is actually pretty average defensively.
You would expect a running HBF to be better in those stats in comparison to an intercepting 3rd tall. But with Saad, Doc and Williamson in our defence, Marchbank will add "a lot more" to our side that Neman will.
 

Arr0w

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Given that the 3 year older Newman is behind Marchbank in Intercepts, 1%ers, contested marks and disposal efficiency, while having more turnovers and more clangers, does not point to Newman having showed "a lot more" than Marchy.

Newman is certainly a more attacking player, gets more of the ball and more meters gained, but he is not a better defender than Marchbank, and certainly not "a lot" better. Newman is actually pretty average defensively.
You would expect a running HBF to be better in those stats in comparison to an intercepting 3rd tall. But with Saad, Doc and Williamson in our defence, Marchbank will add "a lot more" to our side that Neman will.
So it's still opinion rather than fact

You are looking over their careers rather than say 2019 stats
 

Blue Rising 21

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The Newman vs Marchbank is an interesting conundrum. Marchbank always injured complicates the choice first and foremost so get it some won’t like him at all.

the choice based on their play styles and stat strengths come down to an attacking HBFer in Newman who can help create goals versus the intercept marking gun player who can save goals. So do you want a goal saver versus a goal creater.

personally, I want saad, docherty and Williamson over Newman’s creative half back flank skills and would rather add Marchbank defensive read of the play intercept marking. As our midfield group gets faster and more mature, then the balls inside 50 will come more in the air. This is when Marchbank will really shine.

but can he stay on the park. I’m not sure.
 

BigBreakfast

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Tried to post a footy wire comparison but it is an awful table to read. Basically tells the story of different types of players. Newman is an attacking, link up style player who gets the ball more often which might be useful in releasing Saad and Doc.
Marchbank is a contested player who uses it better but gets it less often. Perhaps law of averages here.
This will be a style preference selection.
I’d select Marchbank and back Weitering, Doc and Saad, as well as wingers to exit the ball as efficiently as possible. Marchbank to add starch to the backline, that bit if mongrel.
 

Matty411

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March and Newman - whilst playing for the same spot here - are quite different players.

I went Newman for Balance AND for runs on the board. I've voted March in our 22 x 3 years running and we've been let down every time.

Until such time as he proves he can stay fit and earns a spot on field, I'm done giving votes to him and other guys on promise and potential.

Same should go for the MC. Make Dow, LOB, March, Kemp - all of them - earn their spot.

Marchy has not done enough to earn a Best 22 spot off the back of so much missed footy. Newman has (just) and has far more footy under his belt.

That was my thinking anyway.
 

Pablito

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March and Newman - whilst playing for the same spot here - are quite different players.

I went Newman for Balance AND for runs on the board. I've voted March in our 22 x 3 years running and we've been let down every time.

Until such time as he proves he can stay fit and earns a spot on field, I'm done giving votes to him and other guys on promise and potential.

Same should go for the MC. Make Dow, LOB, March, Kemp - all of them - earn their spot.

Marchy has not done enough to earn a Best 22 spot off the back of so much missed footy. Newman has (just) and has far more footy under his belt.

That was my thinking anyway.
Exactly right, we shouldn't be picking based on potential anymore, it's all about runs on the board.
 

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