Prediction 2021 Consensus Best 22 [DONE FOR ANOTHER YEAR]

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Best 22
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    • Matty411

    Matty411

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    The Carlton Consensus Best 22 is BACK
    Welcome to the returning regulars and to the newcomers who may be stumbling across this for the first time.

    This post will not be short, but I will get to the point. I’m here to save your boredom; rescue you from the postseason blues and help deliver you a groupthink team that Teague and the Coaches will absolutely use as a key part of their thinning going into Season 2021 (okay… not really. But I’m sure they’d at least peek at it, right?)

    2020 was a year like no other in our living history, culminating in a strange, disjointed postseason that means we now have Eddie Betts - a Carlton legend - finishing his career on the ‘rookie list’. We also have some super exciting new recruits who will push for selection right away. Good times at Ikon Park.

    To date, we’ve had 10 changes to the list for season 2021.

    Players who have moved on: Kade Simpson, Matthew Kreuzer, Darcy Lang, Finbar O’Dwyer, Ben Silvagni, Hugh Goddard, Callum Moore, Harrison Macreadie, Cam Polson and Fraser Phillips.

    We also welcome the following players to our selection mindset for the upcoming year: Zac Williams, Adam Saad, Lachie Fogarty as well as some soon-to-be-welcomed draftees.

    So, before we begin I’d like to reorient you all to the way this will happen, as well as providing you some past data to chew on.

    The Rules
    We will be choosing the best available 22 players to hypothetically line up for Round 1, 2021 against the (presumably) Tigers at the MCG – essentially, our best starting team on paper. We’ll go through each area of the ground: first the midfield; then the backs; then our forwards; our starting ruck; and finally the final makeup of our bench and emergencies.

    As always, we have to use a few assumptions as guides:

    1. All players will be fit and eligible for the round one side, this includes Charlie, Harry, Caleb & Brodie (hopefully no one else deserves mention here).
    2. We will need a healthy balance of players in each part of the ground i.e. balance of talls/smalls to make a realistic starting side.
    3. There are no indiscretions among players leading to disqualification from selection
    4. Any player on the list at present are eligible for selection. If some are missing, it may be due to lack of polling slots or the fact they're not (or were not) on our list at the commencement of voting.
    5. You should independently choose who you believe will be the best players in each respective position to help us win Round 1 against the old enemy – and likely to continue to be a big part of our team for 2021.

    Voting
    1. First, we will vote for the 5 starting midfielders (including wings) and your rotation player for bench spot #1 (SIX TOTAL - VOTE COMPLETE)
    2. Then we will vote for the 6 starting defenders and your rotation player who will take bench spot #2 (SEVEN TOTAL - VOTE COMPLETE)
    3. We will then adjourn for a brief vote to decide our starting ruckman (JUST THE ONE - VOTE COMPLETE)
    4. Next, we will vote for our 6 starting forwards and one rotation player for bench spots #3 (SEVEN TOTAL - VOTE COMPLETE)
    5. In another break from tradition and in what will surely create heated discussion, we will then vote for the final bench spot and position in our 22 - able to make this vote knowing our Best 21 and the positional mix of the side. Players who receive multiple votes in any previous area of the ground will be eligible for this vote
    6. We’ll then put an open vote to decide the emergencies (with priority going to those who earned vote/s previously - in the case of lack of space) (VOTE COMPLETE)

    NB:     Players will be ruled out for following position/s once they are successful in a particular area of the ground (of account of us not being able to have two of the same player).

    Consensus 2021 Line up
    FB: L. Plowman (127) - L. Jones (130) - A. Saad (130)
    HB: S. Docherty (130) - J. Weitering (130) - T. Williamson (97)
    C: S. Walsh (152) - E. Curnow (121) - Z. Williams (144)
    HF: Z. Fisher (117) - H. McKay (133) - J. Martin (129)
    FF: M. McGovern (68) - C. Curnow (108) - E. Betts (87)
    R: T. De Koning (86) - P. Cripps (156) - W. Setterfield (151)
    I: S. Petrevski-Seton (49) - C. Marchbank (77) - J. Silvagni (61) - M. Murphy (31)
    EMG: L. Casboult (38), M. Gibbons (28), D. Cuningham (24), N. Newman (22)

    Now, for those who wish for a little extra light reading...

    The Carlton Consensus Evolution
    Brackets ( ) denote amounts of votes received in a given year.

    Consensus 2018 Line up
    FB: Ciaran Byrne (98) - Liam Jones (156) - Lachie Plowman (161)
    HB: Caleb Marchbank (164) - Jacob Weitering (156) - Kade Simpson (150)
    C: Sam Petrevski-Seton (175) - Ed Curnow (157) - Marc Murphy (175)
    HF: Charlie Curnow (150) - Levi Casboult (108) - Jarrod Pickett (143)
    FF: Matthew Wright (119) - Harry McKay (101) - Jack Silvagni (135)
    R: Matthew Kreuzer (181) - Patrick Cripps (183) - Matthew Kennedy (177)
    I: Tom Williamson (76) - David Cuningham (67) - Zac Fisher (64) - Paddy Dow (67)
    EMG: Darcy Lang (66) - Jarrod Garlett (39) - Aaron Mullett (19)

    Actual 2018 Line up
    B: Kade Simpson, Liam Jones, Caleb Marchbank
    HB: Dale Thomas, Jacob Weitering, Lachie Plowman
    C: Aaron Mullett, Patrick Cripps, Marc Murphy
    HF: Zac Fisher, Levi Casboult, Jarrod Garlett
    F: Matthew Wright, Charlie Curnow, Jack Silvagni
    FOL: Matthew Kreuzer, Matthew Kennedy, Sam Petrevski-Seton
    I/C: Ed Curnow, Ciaran Byrne, Paddy Dow, Jed Lamb
    EMG: David Cuningham, Cameron Polson, Harry McKay, Cameron O'Shea

    Differences to Consensus 22 (4)
    Named in Round 1: Thomas, Mullett, Garlett, Lamb
    Didn’t make the cut: Pickett, Cuningham (EMG), McKay (EMG), Williamson
    -------------------------------------------------

    Consensus 2019 Line up
    FB: Lachie Plowman (121) - Liam Jones (110) - Kade Simpson (146)
    HB: Tom Williamson (105) - Jacob Weitering (150) - Caleb Marchbank (151)
    C: Marc Murphy (99) - Ed Curnow (104) - Zac Fisher (118)
    HF: Mitch McGovern (147) - Charlie Curnow (149) - S. Petrevski-Seton (114)
    FF: Will Setterfield (53) - Harry McKay (149) - Alex Fasolo (116)
    R: Matthew Kreuzer (132) - Patrick Cripps (152) - Paddy Dow (144)
    I: Nic Newman (87) - Matthew Kennedy (87) - Jarrod Pickett (51) - Sam Walsh (40)
    EMG: Lochie O'Brien (17) - Dale Thomas (8) - David Cuningham (6) - Tomas Bugg (2)

    Actual 2019 Lineup
    B: Jarrod Garlett, Liam Jones, Lachie Plowman
    HB: Kade Simpson, Jacob Weitering, Nic Newman
    C: Marc Murphy, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Zac Fisher
    HF: Michael Gibbons, Charlie Curnow, Sam Walsh
    F: Ed Curnow, Mitch McGovern, Harry McKay
    Foll: Andrew Phillips, Patrick Cripps, Paddy Dow
    Int: Dale Thomas, Will Setterfield, Alex Fasolo, David Cuningham
    Emg: Cameron Polson, Lochie O'Brien, Levi Casboult, Matthew Lobbe

    Differences to Consensus 22 (5)
    Named in Round 1: Garlett, Thomas, Phillips, Fasolo, Cuningham
    Didn’t make the cut: Marchbank, Williamson, Kreuzer, Kennedy, Pickett
    -------------------------------------------------

    Consensus 2020 Line up
    FB: Lachie Plowman (97%), Liam Jones (99%), Kade Simpson (78%)
    HB: Sam Docherty (97%), Jacob Weitering (99%), Caleb Marchbank (74%)
    C: Sam Walsh (99%), Patrick Cripps (99%), Will Setterfield (97%)
    HF: Mitch McGovern (96%), Harry McKay (99%), Jack Martin (94%)
    FF: Eddie Betts (98%), Charlie Curnow (97%), David Cuningham (80%)
    FOL: Matthew Kreuzer*, Ed Curnow (96%), Marc Murphy (96%)
    INT: Sam Petrevski-Seton (63%), Jack Silvagni (53%), Zac Fisher (69%), Jack Newnes (32%)
    EMG: Nic Newman (61%), Matthew Kennedy (22%), Michael Gibbons (30%), Levi Casboult*

    Actual 2020 Line up
    B: Lachie Plowman, Liam Jones, Sam Docherty
    HB: Nic Newman, Jacob Weitering, Sam Petrevski-Seton
    C: Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps, Jack Newnes
    HF: Paddy Dow, Mitch McGovern, Jack Martin
    F: Michael Gibbons, Levi Casboult, Jack Silvagni
    R: Matthew Kreuzer, Marc Murphy, Ed Curnow
    INT: Kade Simpson, Will Setterfield, Zac Fisher, David Cuningham
    EMG: not noted

    Differences to Consensus 22 (4)
    Named in Round 1: Newman, Casboult, Gibbons, Dow
    Didn’t make the cut: Marchbank, McKay, Betts, Curnow

    Now, after the world’s longest prologue, let us begin.
     
    Last edited:
  • Index
    • Thanks Matty. I'd go with keeping them in, as would expect both of them to play (touch wood) at some time during 2021.

    EDIT:
    Just read your post properly. The title says Best 22, but your post says best side for round 1. Are we differentiating between the 2?
     
    Is it a little bit early for this?
    I see 4 spots genuinely up for grabs, and figure that pre-season form will go a long way to determining who wins them.

    I'd leave Charlie and Kemp in as options.
     

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    Usually go after we finalise the list, so once we've got our draftees and any DFAs, I'll fire it up.

    Agree - Kemp and Charlie to stay in. Will also have Nic and Caleb eligible for selection.

    skadoosh it will be the best 22 side line-up for Round 1. Assuming we'll have a full list to pick from, it may well double as our best 22.
     
    aka the Michael Gibbons thread
     
    Stamos said:
    The set-up of spots was good last year.
    Didn't we have 7 back spots, 7 mids, 1 ruck, 6 forwards, 1 I/C?
    Click to expand...
    From memory, yeah I arranged it similarly to that. 6+1 defenders, 5+2 mids, 6+1 forwards, 1 ruck.

    Also ran with ‘every player is fit’ for hypothetical round 1 selection.

    2020 Consensus 22: name the team FFS

    The Carlton Consensus Best 22 is returning for the 2020 season. After a stellar 3 threepeat from Matty411 I’ve been passed the baton & hopefully won’t drop the ball too often. We’ve endured the highs & lows of the FA, DFA, trade & draft periods & come out the other end with a complete list of...
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    Arr0w said:
    Predicting none of Levi, Newnes, Gibbons, Newman will feature in best 22, but most if not all will start round 1
    Click to expand...
    I reckon Newnes might be left out. I hope they give an opportunity to someone like Willo or SPS on a wing instead. I've heard even Kemp can play on a wing, like Setters did in 2019 too when recovering from his ACL. Even someone like Fogarty or Cuningham to play on the wing and on-ball similarly to Walsh.

    So many options, and so much depth. We are genuinely one or two pieces away from being a premiership contender, and I love it!
     
    Matty411 said:
    There's always a bolter or two, so don't be surprised if a Fogarty or even a draftee flies into the Round 1 side.

    Actually, might be a good exercise for me to look into how far our consensus was 'off' from Round 1 sides in the past 3 years...
    Click to expand...
    Here's the last 3 consensus lineups if you want to compare them to round 1 selected teams, Matty
    CJMB said:
    Here’s the results of the previous couple of years so we can track our evolution:

    Consensus 2018 Lineup
    FB: Ciaran Byrne (98) - Liam Jones (156) - Lachie Plowman (161)
    HB: Caleb Marchbank (164) - Jacob Weitering (156) - Kade Simpson (150)
    C: Sam Petrevski-Seton (175) - Ed Curnow (157) - Marc Murphy (175)
    HF: Charlie Curnow (150) - Levi Casboult (108) - Jarrod Pickett (143)
    FF: Matthew Wright (119) - Harry McKay (101) - Jack Silvagni (135)
    R: Matthew Kreuzer (181) - Patrick Cripps (183) - Matthew Kennedy (177)
    I: Tom Williamson (76) - David Cuningham (67) - Zac Fisher (64) - Paddy Dow (67)
    EMG: Darcy Lang (66) - Jarrod Garlett (39) - Aaron Mullett (19)

    Consensus 2019 Lineup
    FB: Lachie Plowman (121) - Liam Jones (110) - Kade Simpson (146)
    HB: Tom Williamson (105) - Jacob Weitering (150) - Caleb Marchbank (151)
    C: Marc Murphy (99) - Ed Curnow (104) - Zac Fisher (118)
    HF: Mitch McGovern (147) - Charlie Curnow (149) - S. Petrevski-Seton (114)
    FF: Will Setterfield (53) - Harry McKay (149) - Alex Fasolo (116)
    R: Matthew Kreuzer (132) - Patrick Cripps (152) - Paddy Dow (144)
    I: Nic Newman (87) - Matthew Kennedy (87) - Jarrod Pickett (51) - Sam Walsh (40)
    EMG: Lochie O'Brien (17) - Dale Thomas (8) - David Cuningham (6) - Tomas Bugg (2)

    Consensus 2020 Lineup
    FB: Lachie Plowman (97%), Liam Jones (99%), Kade Simpson (78%)
    HB: Sam Docherty (97%), Jacob Weitering (99%), Caleb Marchbank (74%)
    C: Sam Walsh (99%), Patrick Cripps (99%), Will Setterfield (97%)
    HF: Mitch McGovern (96%), Harry McKay (99%), Jack Martin (94%)
    FF: Eddie Betts (98%), Charlie Curnow (97%), David Cuningham (80%)
    FOL: Matthew Kreuzer*, Ed Curnow (96%), Marc Murphy (96%)
    INT: Sam Petrevski-Seton (63%), Jack Silvagni (53%), Zac Fisher (69%), Jack Newnes (32%)

    EMG: Nic Newman (61%), Matthew Kennedy (22%), Michael Gibbons (30%), Levi Casboult*

    Honourable mentions: Tom Williamson (DEF 25%), Paddy Dow (MID 29%), Lachie O'Brien (MID 19%)

    On field changes from last years Consensus 22:

    IN: Sam Docherty, David Cuningham, Jack Silvagni, Jack Martin, Eddie Betts, Jack Newnes
    OUT: Nic Newman, Paddy Dow, Matthew Kennedy, Alex Fasolo, Jarrod Pickett, Tom Williamson
    Click to expand...
     
    CJMB said:
    Here's the last 3 consensus lineups if you want to compare them to round 1 selected teams, Matty
    Click to expand...
    Alex Fasolo was a bad move by us in 2019
     
    Preliminary findings

    Some of the players that have been selected in the Consensus 22 over the past three years:
    • Jarrod Pickett (2018 and 2019, both times didn't make the 22)
    • Alex Fasolo (2019)
    Shows how desperately we've been needing (and arguably still do) strong small-medium forwards. That was made easier in 2020 with Eddie and Jack coming in. That seventh midfielder has also been one we've struggled to hold down, with Cuningham, Dow, Kennedy, Newnes and Jack/Fish those that we've hoped could be that player. Thankfully, Setterfield has stepped up and Walsh was blessed to be brought in.

    In some ways, 2021 will make for the easiest year yet, with better players and more depth now on the list. It will also make it even toughe due to with varying opinions as to the make up of our 22.

    Bring it on.
     
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