Strategy 2021 Draft and Hypothetical pick trade proposals

[Strapping Young Lad]

Lol seriously can we just have a ban on posting things ol clickbait Kornes says…

none of it is interesting and it’s all designed to just stir people up.

Hodgey wants a new rule! Hodgey gets a new rule.

No more clickbait s**t from Cornes in here.


Also:

Can we also threadban Rendell quotes. The bloke is senile.

Done

 

[theiaofseed]

[7, 15, 21] > [5, 21, 24] > [4, 15]

Tigers don't do the first trade though, they could get a better deal for 2 from the Giants and get the Callaghan.

GWS wouldn't do 7(9)+15(17) for 2 though and their Future First isn't worth much either. imo they don't have a chance for Pick 2.

 

[TDS7]

GWS wouldn't do 7(9)+15(17) for 2 though and their Future First isn't worth much either. imo they don't have a chance for Pick 2.

Richmond have 3 seconds as well, right? throw in one with a future 4th or something back and GWS are certainly interested.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Richmond have 3 seconds as well, right? throw in one with a future 4th or something back and GWS are certainly interested.

GWS don't * around with 4th and 2nd's. Their model is all about continually rolling over 1st round picks.

 

[chopflop]

Holy sh*t, that's brilliant!

Don't think Freo have a F2

 

[Judd2Sewell]

I suspect Freo would prefer to bring in 2 top 10 picks this year rather than wait another 12 months for another based on their improving development curve.

Recruiters talk about the benefit of having a cluster of picks which is what freo have with 6 and 8. Means they can cherry pick with pick 8 and go for type.

Surely they will. There's a very good chance they'll be able to bring in both Erasmus and Amiss. Two local talents that are legitimate top 10 prospects, and both in positions of need.

I'd say we are the only team likely to disrupt that by taking Erasmus.

Hawks - Ward or Erasmus
Freo - Amiss or Erasmus
Richmond - Hobbs or Ward
Freo - Erasmus or Johnson

 

[theiaofseed]

Trading for pick 2 and how I see.

Gold Coast: How much are they willing to give up to move one spot? They wont/can't trade in more picks this year so future picks will be needed. 3+ Future First for 2+ Future First, but thats a big price to pay when you know GWS don't want Callaghan at Pick 2 anyway. Is better to wait and hope all deals fall through? ~ Verdict ~ I see it as a possibility

Adelaide: Have one high draft Pick and then nothing until the 30's, again Future picks will be needed but are they willing to move on Future Picks when they have two highly touted local talents next year coming through and have the prospect of luring Rakine and Lukosius home? ~ Verdict ~ I can't see them willing to trade Future Picks that would be required to get any deal done, not happening.

Hawthorn: Stated theyre keen to get picks and or move up in the draft, have a strong draft hand in this and next years draft and willing to trade, have other draft picks in this years draft in a attractive range unlike the above two. Hawthorn don't have the same interest as Adelaide and can trade Futures freely and unlike Gold Coast can take picks in this year. ~ Verdict ~ Higher than the above, will they pay the asking price?

Fremantle: Best hand to get the deal done with 6+8, straight forward 6+8 for 2+13 makes sense but at 6 will GWS'S target still be there and is that something Fremantle are willing to do? Erasmus is very much a like for like with Callaghan and Amiss could be the FF Fremantle have always wanted and he's local. ~ Verdict ~ I see it as a possibility

Richmond: Have 7+15+26+27+28 to trade but do GWS really want meat and patato picks? 7+15 isn't enough by it self and I don't see GWS really that interested mid 20's something pick, they're list is already full of talent and there's not much room for prospect picks when they already have a few on there. Richmonds Future Pick can't be valued at anything better than 15, add in the propsect of someone taking GWS's target before their pick I just don't think they have the picks on offer to warrant a risk from GWS. Fremantle have already said they will take the best talent which was clearly direct at GWS saying hey don't think about dealing with anyone after us your target could be gone. ~ Verdict ~ Wont happen.

 

[theiaofseed]

Richmond have 3 seconds as well, right? throw in one with a future 4th or something back and GWS are certainly interested.

GWS imo couldn't care for picks in the 20's, theyre not interested in bartering with some Richmond garage sale

 

[RX Hawk]

The only team I would consider trading our future 1st will be GWS and only if our recruiters rate Callaghan a generational talent like the Bont.

So trade 5, 24 and future 1st to GWS for 2, 13 and future 2nd.

Then in 12 months time do a Melbourne and trade our future 1st 2023 for another teams 1st 2022 so we get back in the 1st round. Do that strategy for a few more years if needed.

This is my preference too if possible. Is we are trading 5 it should be only to get Callaghan.

 

[Alite]

I know this isn't as exciting as 1st round pick trade hypotheticals but anyone know our plans with picks 59 and 65?
I was curious as to why we left them alone with all those future 3rd and 4th round swaps.
My best guess is that with pick 59 we'll try and flip it for a future 3rd after Daicos and other academy bid happen when it'll turn into an early-mid 50s pick. We might try and flip it into a future 4th or trade it with pick 59 in order to secure a deal for a future 3rd.

With Saunders and Callow getting a 2nd year on the rookie list, does anyone have the info to hand on our available list spots: Seiour, Rookie and Cat B?

I think that give us 5-7 main list, 0 rookie list and 2 cat b spots

Mitchell54
If Toasted is correct with 5-7 main list sports open, I‘d assume we will use both picks 59 and 65 and possibly even pick 81.

 

[Alite]

The Want to get things NOW is near irresistible. When it comes to AFL recruitment, it certainly it is for me. We all see draftees that we would love to have at our club and I’m sure it is no different for ALL AFL club recruiters. That creates leverage. Just as following another car in a car park when looking for a spot makes no sense, maybe we should not be looking to maximise our 2021 draft and instead look to the 2022 draft.

We could trade our pick 24 for, say, the Dogs future first (after they have matched their bid on Darcy). The Dogs want players now when within their window, while we are building for the future. That type of pick swap would benefit both clubs.

We would also have the benefit of seeing the 2022 crop actually play a full season before we choose.

If we did this, it would not initially be popular, but it may be the smart play.

We could stop there. Or…

We could even trade back from pick 5(7) to a position where we could still get Johnson/Sonsie/NWM/Rachele/Sinn or any other player expected in the teens, for another 2022 first rounder.

Out: 2021 pick 5(7), 2021 pick 24
In: 2021 pick ~ 12, 2022 picks ~14, ~16

Giving us in 2021:
Pick ~12: Johnson/Sonsie/NWM/Rachele/Sinn… or others.
Pick 21: McDonald/Bazzo/Taylor/… the list goes on…

And 2022 becomes the year we set up the next dynasty with:
2022 picks ~4, ~14,~16 & ~22
Davo-27 You watch the earlier age guys. What could you do with this draft hand?

Following the crowed always leads to the back of the pack

 

[theiaofseed]

The Want to get things NOW is near irresistible. When it comes to AFL recruitment, it certainly it is for me. We all see draftees that we would love to have at our club and I’m sure it is no different for ALL AFL club recruiters. That creates leverage. Just as following another car in a car park when looking for a spot makes no sense, maybe we should not be looking to maximise our 2021 draft and instead look to the 2022 draft.

We could trade our pick 24 for, say, the Dogs future first (after they have matched their bid on Darcy). The Dogs want players now while in their window, while we are building for the future. That type of pick swap would benefit both clubs.

We would also have the benefit of seeing the 2022 crop actually play a full season before we choose.

If we did this, it would not initially be popular, but it may be the smart play.

We could even trade back from pick 5(7) to a position where we could still get Johnson/Sonsie/NWM/Rachele/Sinn or any other player expected in the teens, for another 2022 first rounder.

Out: 2021 pick 5(7), 2021 pick 24
In: 2021 pick ~ 12, 2022 picks ~14, ~16

Giving us in 2021:
Pick ~12: Johnson/Sonsie/NWM/Rachele/Sinn… or others.
Pick 21: McDonald/Bazzo/Taylor/… the list goes on…

And 2022 becomes the year we set up the next dynasty with:
2022 picks ~4, ~14,~16 & ~22
Davo-27 You watch the earlier age guys. What could you do with this draft hand?

Following the crowed always leads to the back of the pack

Pick 21 is an important pick, Brisbane, Bulldogs and Essendon could look at trading future picks for it.

14,18,21 could be a tempting situation for Brisbane

But its a big no to down grading our first this year

 

[Alite]

Pick 21 is an important pick, Brisbane, Bulldogs and Essendon could look at trading future picks for it.
14,18,21 could be a tempting situation for Brisbane
But its a big no to down grading our first this year

Yep, I understand. If it weren’t for Johnson being a likely mid-first-round pick, I would not have even suggested the idea.
But I am “sold“ on Johnson. That being the case, for me our first pick may (depending on Freo) be up for grabs.

But my post was less about specifics and more about the concept of trading down in this years draft to trade more than proportionally higher in next years draft. To that point, it seems that you would also would be willing to ”wait for 2 marshmallows”.

Edit: The analogy is too much fun not to post

 

[sregit]

GWS imo couldn't care for picks in the 20's, theyre not interested in bartering with some Richmond garage sale

It's very interesting reading comments from a different supporter group. I quite agree with you that GWS would not be interested in Richmonds picks in the late 20s(garbage as you put it), however, both StKilda and Essendon would be. Stkilda would be interested in Richmonds pick 15 plus 20s pick(s) for their pick 9. This would then give Richmond 7 , 9 and a future pick, which is enough currency to do any deal they like.

The point is just about any club can get a deal done but what/how much are you prepared to pay. Love hearing all the scenarios but very little will actually get done.

I can't see the Hawks giving up pick number 5 and a first round pick in 2022 for Callaghan . I think you'll go to the draft and select Josh ward with pick 5 if Adelaide don't select him first.

 

[theiaofseed]

It's very interesting reading comments from a different supporter group. I quite agree with you that GWS would not be interested in Richmonds picks in the late 20s(garbage as you put it), however, both StKilda and Essendon would be. Stkilda would be interested in Richmonds pick 15 plus 20s pick(s) for their pick 9. This would then give Richmond 7 , 9 and a future pick, which is enough currency to do any deal they like.

The point is just about any club can get a deal done but what/how much are you prepared to pay. Love hearing all the scenarios but very little will actually get done.

I can't see the Hawks giving up pick number 5 and a first round pick in 2022 for Callaghan . I think you'll go to the draft and select Josh ward with pick 5 if Adelaide don't select him first.

Richmond would have to offer more than Hawthorn to balance the risk by GWS, if they feel for any instance Hawthorn or Fremantle will take their target they wont deal with Richmond regardless of what you offer. So no not just about any team can get a deal done

Do you really think 17*+29* will land pick 11*?? Teams can't wait and see who might be on the board to analyses the risk better, people might say that this draft is so tight and even that the difference of 6 picks isnt much in the quality available but thats a double edge sword, someone picked at 16 might have been viewed in the top 8 by the Saints. Clubs will only move down in the draft order if the deal offered is sweet and 17*+29* aint it.

 

[KermitJagger]

Honestly I'm not sure why people are so wedded to the idea of Callaghan as a player that they'd try anything to trade up.

If we could keep our current pick, then utilise other picks and our future first to get back into the top 10 we could come out with a combination of say, Ward and Sinn, IMO this gives you a better chance of success than 1 Callaghan.

Sinn in particular has a lot of the same qualities and has only really slipped down the pecking order due to injuries, these are the crafty moves we need to be looking at.

 

[Brishawk]

If we are giving up two firsts, why wouldn’t we give them up for a young out of contract star mid? Obviously not this off season but there is a massive risk throwing multiple firsts at an untried 18 year old. I’d say if we do trade up it will involve pick swapping and/or later round picks.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

We were open to trading Bruest with 24 for 13.

We would have had someone in mind with that pick, you’d think. I think we’ll try again.

 

[Coathanger]

Honestly I'm not sure why people are so wedded to the idea of Callaghan as a player that they'd try anything to trade up.

If we could keep our current pick, then utilise other picks and our future first to get back into the top 10 we could come out with a combination of say, Ward and Sinn, IMO this gives you a better chance of success than 1 Callaghan.

Sinn in particular has a lot of the same qualities and has only really slipped down the pecking order due to injuries, these are the crafty moves we need to be looking at.

No thanks. He breaks down more often than my lawn mower.

 

[KermitJagger]

No thanks. He breaks down more often than my lawn mower.

That Chris Judd, bloody dodgy shoulders - two reconstructions before he's even drafted? He'll never have a decent career at AFL level.

 

[TylerDurden]

That Chris Judd, bloody dodgy shoulders - two reconstructions before he's even drafted? He'll never have a decent career at AFL level.

Selwood knee was no good apparently.

 

[KermitJagger]

Selwood knee was no good apparently.

Plenty of draftees with injury problems pre-draft barely have an issue with them afterwards, I'd be worried if they were continually breaking down with hamstring injuries or something because they tend to plague players for a long time, but barely anything else.

 

[theiaofseed]

We were open to trading Bruest with 24 for 13.

We would have had someone in mind with that pick, you’d think. I think we’ll try again.

I said this before, Wingard and Breust were both out the door for that Pick 13 so we have someone in mind if not a few. Essendon, Port, Brisbane and GWS can we tempt one them into a trade.

21+ Future Second+Future Fourth(Suns) for Pick 14+41

 

[Stratton24]

We were open to trading Bruest with 24 for 13.

We would have had someone in mind with that pick, you’d think. I think we’ll try again.

Media reporting was a little off with that - we had not agreed to an actual trade and GWS went straight to Luke's manager to try and get him to say yes

 

[Stratton24]

I said this before, Wingard and Breust were both out the door for that Pick 13 so we have someone in mind if not a few. Essendon, Port, Brisbane and GWS can we tempt one them into a trade.

21+ Future Second+Future Fourth(Suns) for Pick 14+41

Wingard didn't get anywhere near an actual trade being discussed - just a very informal chat

 

[theiaofseed]

Future First + 21 for Pick 4+Future Third
Pick 4+24 for 7+15

5,7,15 Would be a nice draft hand.