List Mgmt. 2021 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

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Ticky009

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All the talk has been about Angus Anderson in regard to Swan nomination, so perhaps we're overdue for a look at the other players who have been nominated.

Let's start with Felix Rogers:

 

DeadlyAkkuret

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Roll the dice on Knevitt anyone? JPK replacement by the sound of it if he comes good. Ranked in this at about our pick at 20.

He’s my smokey tbh.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

hairy biker

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The Age has a go at predicting our draft targets;

The Swans are at an interesting point in their list build as they have drafted an excellent crop of young talent in recent years, although Jordan Dawson’s loss to Adelaide at the end of this season was a major blow. They still have Logan McDonald and Will Gould developing nicely and a good foundation. The Swans’ recruiters have a good eye for talent and will use their first selection on the best available player at pick 16 (the pick may become higher or lower on the night if pick swaps occur). Either Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera or Josh Sinn would be a great get at that first pick. Zac Taylor is a good ball user who would add depth to the Swans’ midfield, with Josh Kennedy in his twilight years. He played VFL with Essendon and won the Calder Cannons’ best and fairest. Tom Brown is another impressive ball-user off half-back, who is likely to be available at a pick in the mid-teens. If versatile and athletic midfielder Josh Goater remains on the board he would be hard to pass on despite there being varying opinions on where he should be drafted. A speedster such as Campbell Chesser could appeal, while tall midfielder Mitch Knevitt is an impressive type attracting interest across the competition. The Swans could package their two selections, 31 and 39, if they want to target one of those players if they think they won’t make it that far. The Swans need to keep going young as they look to re-rookie Lewis Taylor and will potentially add Paddy McCartin to their list during the pre-season supplemental selection period.
They also list our current players by categories eg tall defender, midfielders, small/medium fwds etc and 'The order of players in the depth charts is roughly their current pecking order at the club.'
According to their list Rowbottom is our best midfielder (Parker second best), Mills is a small/medium defender, Ryan Clarke is listed before McInerney, Gulden and Warner in the mids category and Ronke ahead of Wicks in the small/medium fwd category.

Bring back Emma Quayle.
 

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Kiama Chris

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The Age has a go at predicting our draft targets;



They also list our current players by categories eg tall defender, midfielders, small/medium fwds etc and 'The order of players in the depth charts is roughly their current pecking order at the club.'
According to their list Rowbottom is our best midfielder (Parker second best), Mills is a small/medium defender, Ryan Clarke is listed before McInerney, Gulden and Warner in the mids category and Ronke ahead of Wicks in the small/medium fwd category.

Bring back Emma Quayle.
Pretty awful stuff.
As well as the rubbish quoted above they don't actually identify needs, they don't identify potential pick types across three picks, don't identify the likelihood of taking Anderson as a late or rookie pick.
The author has spent perhaps 10 minutes reading some other journo's idiocy and making it worse.
There's plenty to disagree about on the BF board but at least posters give a crap and THINK about it.
 

caesar88

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The Age has a go at predicting our draft targets;



They also list our current players by categories eg tall defender, midfielders, small/medium fwds etc and 'The order of players in the depth charts is roughly their current pecking order at the club.'
According to their list Rowbottom is our best midfielder (Parker second best), Mills is a small/medium defender, Ryan Clarke is listed before McInerney, Gulden and Warner in the mids category and Ronke ahead of Wicks in the small/medium fwd category.

Bring back Emma Quayle.
Interestingly if you look at the first handful of clubs, they seem to have got the order quite right.

Pretty obvious by the time they got to us, the sixteenth club, they just did the footy journalism equivalent of this:

4EF41596-7D78-4951-A80B-691D1DE3CD1C.jpeg
 

rustycrate

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Interestingly if you look at the first handful of clubs, they seem to have got the order quite right.

Pretty obvious by the time they got to us, the sixteenth club, they just did the footy journalism equivalent of this:

View attachment 1284665
Is it a hat
Horse+cat=hat
Not sure if you thought I was having a go at you, but certainly wasn't the case.
It's just that where most people have been uncertain about who they want, you've been on the Wilmot bandwagon from the get go.

I'd still prefer Taylor, but Wilmot or Chesser would be fine. The latter two are, at this point of time, essentially flankers, whereas Taylor is a skilled midfielder who was getting better as the season wore on (until Covid intervened).

As for Erasmus, would love to get him, but obviously will be long gone.
One guy I wish there was more vision of is Finn Callaghan. Clearly not in our range, but that 90 sec clip that the AFL has put up, IMO, shows nothing to suggest to me he is pick 2 of the 'open players'. The view seems virtually unanimous that he is, I wish there was visual evidence to help convince me.
There are a few clips of Erasmus and good overhead, dual sided, inside/outside/fwd, a guy who comes from a cricket background, didn't play at the U16s, so late developer with that December birthday. Only slight knocks appear to be minor questions on his kicking consistency/speed.
The more I think about it and after reading Kinnears piece about the draft on the Swans website, I reckon we are a chance to cobble together a deal for 31 and 39 for pick 23.
Zac Taylor and Darcy Wilmot + pick 70 which would be about pick 57 sounds like a nice day at the draft.
 

hairy biker

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Interestingly if you look at the first handful of clubs, they seem to have got the order quite right.
Having a quick read through I think this is the worst;
Gold Coast obviously,
Midfielders: Matt Rowell, Lachie Weller, David Swallow, Noah Anderson, Ben Ainsworth, Touk Miller,

Journo 1; Hang on we've left out Touk Miller.
Journo 2; He was AA and won their B&F
Journo 1; Rightio. Behind Ainsworth sounds about right.

Just a reminder; 'The order of players in the depth charts is roughly their current pecking order at the club.'
 
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RUNVS

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Kiama Chris

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I think we should draft a tall...

Mills, Stephens, Chad, Rowbottom, Campbell, Errol, JMac, Florent

We are pretty good for young mids.
Most games you pick:
7 defenders
7 forwards (including 2nd ruck)
1 first ruck
7 midfielders
Your list above is 8. We also have Clarke and Taylor who have most likely reached their ceilings. That is awfully thin on injury cover. I believe we will draft 3 midfielders (one may be a defender/mid), including Anderson as a Cat B Rookie, and a KPD.
 

caesar88

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Thinking about the midfield beyond JPK and Parker, I think it will look something like:

Core trio - Mills the big-bodied, inside distributor; Rowbottom & Warner the powerful clearance specialists.

Supporting cast - Heeney (when he's in there), Gulden, Campbell, Florent, McInerney (maybe) & Stephens (hopefully), the speedy, classy and nifty distributors with the outside game.

It's a very dangerous mix I reckon if they all work out (which is no guarantee of course - Stephens the biggest unknown at this stage), but maybe the one type that is missing from that mix is a physical enforcer. Someone who can throw his body around to make life easier for the core trio and give them some license to attack, but who can also protect the lighter bodies of that supporting cast.

In short - a mid capable of playing more of a selfless role, and using his mongrel to make the midfield function better. May be able to find later in the draft too as the physical types tend to fall back in favour of the more skilful and athletically gifted mids.

On that note, notice how giddy Dittmar gets just talking about the physical side of the game at about the 8 minute mark of this interview.

 

dosser

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I've been over the rankings and think I have come up with the best combination. Keep in mind that I am basing my picks on talent, and not necessarily needs, however I have also taken the latter into account during the process. I have also eliminated the academy/father son picks and have cross-referenced a number of phantom drafts as well as 'top prospects' lists and listened to a few podcasts. With that in mind, I think the best picks for us will be the following:

Pick 16 - Jason Horne-Francis
Pick 31 - Finn Callaghan
Pick 39 - Ben Hobbs
If we can then get Mac Andrew in the rookie draft then I think we would be pretty happy.
 

Dubai Quacker

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Thinking about the midfield beyond JPK and Parker, I think it will look something like:

Core trio - Mills the big-bodied, inside distributor; Rowbottom & Warner the powerful clearance specialists.

Supporting cast - Heeney (when he's in there), Gulden, Campbell, Florent, McInerney (maybe) & Stephens (hopefully), the speedy, classy and nifty distributors with the outside game.

It's a very dangerous mix I reckon if they all work out (which is no guarantee of course - Stephens the biggest unknown at this stage), but maybe the one type that is missing from that mix is a physical enforcer. Someone who can throw his body around to make life easier for the core trio and give them some license to attack, but who can also protect the lighter bodies of that supporting cast.

In short - a mid capable of playing more of a selfless role, and using his mongrel to make the midfield function better. May be able to find later in the draft too as the physical types tend to fall back in favour of the more skilful and athletically gifted mids.

On that note, notice how giddy Dittmar gets just talking about the physical side of the game at about the 8 minute mark of this interview.

I agree that we need a powerhouse mid for life after JPK.

And I agree that Dittmar would be a solid late-draft pick.

But I’m still clinging to the hope of Sheldrick in the white with red V.

Having said that, he’s moving up phantom drafts into “Geelong territory”. The ABC has him at 22.

 

caesar88

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I agree that we need a powerhouse mid for life after JPK.

And I agree that Dittmar would be a solid late-draft pick.

But I’m still clinging to the hope of Sheldrick in the white with red V.

Having said that, he’s moving up phantom drafts into “Geelong territory”. The ABC has him at 22.

Yeah they sound like very similar players, but Sheldrick is almost universally rated higher. Perhaps our interest in Dittmar is purely as insurance, in the event that any of our first-choice mids are already gone.
 

Bloods86

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Most games you pick:
7 defenders
7 forwards (including 2nd ruck)
1 first ruck
7 midfielders
Your list above is 8. We also have Clarke and Taylor who have most likely reached their ceilings. That is awfully thin on injury cover. I believe we will draft 3 midfielders (one may be a defender/mid), including Anderson as a Cat B Rookie, and a KPD.
Let me put it this way, I think I have more confidence that we could put Papley, Fox, Hayward, Wicks, COR (or a swap with Cunners), even Blakey, even Taylor based on reserves form, into the mids a bit, and bump everyone ahead of them up by a few minutes as injury cover, over the next few years - than I am that we're guaranteed to have 2-3 consistent AFL level KPDs out of Melican, BOC, Gould, Paddy. And yeah, we'll be drafting a couple of mids anyway.

So yep, 2 "smalls" and a KPD at the national draft sounds about right. Then Anderson, then I guess we might not take anyone else at the rookie draft if we're planning on grabbing Paddy in the SSPPSPSPS5.
 

Dubai Quacker

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For the statistically minded among us, my multi-variate regression analysis indicates the following probabilities:

* draft a player with a mullet : 74%

* draft an Arlo or Mitchito : 6%

* draft a speedy half-back flanker : 67%

* swaps picks 31+39 for 25 & use it on speedy half back flanker : 16%

* drafted player is compared to Archie Perkins due to alleged “laid back nature” : 36%

* bigfooty passes judgement immediately upon draftee’s career prospects: 100%
 

BruceFromBalnarring

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For the statistically minded among us, my multi-variate regression analysis indicates the following probabilities:

* draft a player with a mullet : 74%

* draft an Arlo or Mitchito : 6%

* draft a speedy half-back flanker : 67%

* swaps picks 31+39 for 25 & use it on speedy half back flanker : 16%

* drafted player is compared to Archie Perkins due to alleged “laid back nature” : 36%

* bigfooty passes judgement immediately upon draftee’s career prospects: 100%
Whilst not a mullet fan as such, they are a vast improvement on the manbun or (worse) topknot.
 

Bloods86

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Hate to be the bearer of bad news - but it ain’t happening til Wednesday
*First Round

Some of us will have the combined experience of being unhappy and stewing over our 1st pick, as well as speculating about our others for an extra day!

Of course, wouldn't surprise me if the club gets towards our pick, having kept us all in suspense throughout the 1st round, then has a wanted player taken off the board, trades out of the first round and leaves us with all our picks on Thursday.

FWIW - Last night I had a dream where we took 3 players who no-one had any idea about, no one had mentioned, even the media writers were struggling to provide any detail. They were all massive 'reaches'. One had been playing in the QAFL, that's the most specific detail I can recall.
 
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