List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[Ripcity]

I mentioned the other day that from the highlights i have seen, i think he would be an excellent addition to our mix. If we somehow trade down with richmond and get their 7 and 15, hobbs if still there at 7 (if not i do like the look of goater) and a guy like draper or rachele at 15 would be great

Think you'll find Richmond will trade to 4 with Hobbs in mind. In the same way, will be their Cotchin replacement and they are reportedly very much into him.

 

[Crow till I die]

Think you'll find Richmond will trade to 4 with Hobbs in mind. In the same way, will be their Cotchin replacement and they are reportedly very much into him.

makes sense. Having said that, if we grabbed Goater at 7 - assuming Hobbs and Callaghan are both off the board, I don't think we will be upset and then grab another quality kid at 15

 

[Mutineer]

I mentioned the other day that from the highlights i have seen, i think he would be an excellent addition to our mix. If we somehow trade down with richmond and get their 7 and 15, hobbs if still there at 7 (if not i do like the look of goater) and a guy like draper or rachele at 15 would be great

I'd really like to take Ned Long with a later pick, his 1st few games in the NAB League this season before his injury were as good as most of the midfield guys now being talked about in the 1st round....and he's a 192cm and 88kg already with elite endurance and ability to rattle the scoreboard.
I'm confident barring the injury he'd be getting a lot more exposure.

This from Knightmare's May draft rankings

 

[Crow till I die]

I'd really like to take Ned Long with a later pick, his 1st few games in the NAB League this season before his injury were as good as most of the midfield guys now being talked about in the 1st round....and he's a 192cm and 88kg already with elite endurance and ability to rattle the scoreboard.
I'm confident barring the injury he'd be getting a lot more exposure.

This from Knightmare's May draft rankings
View attachment 1258462

I have not seen him at all but sounds like he would be great - probably gone by pick 15 if we secured that in any trade with Richmond?

 

[70lethal]

I mentioned the other day that from the highlights i have seen, i think he would be an excellent addition to our mix. If we somehow trade down with richmond and get their 7 and 15, hobbs if still there at 7 (if not i do like the look of goater) and a guy like draper or rachele at 15 would be great

Pretty certain Hobbs wont be there at Richmonds pick.
Don't think he gets past Hawthorn, look who they are looking at clearing out.

 

[70lethal]

I'd really like to take Ned Long with a later pick, his 1st few games in the NAB League this season before his injury were as good as most of the midfield guys now being talked about in the 1st round....and he's a 192cm and 88kg already with elite endurance and ability to rattle the scoreboard.
I'm confident barring the injury he'd be getting a lot more exposure.

This from Knightmare's May draft rankings
View attachment 1258462

How late do you think he goes and how does he compare to the likes of Knevitt and Howes types?
If we arent taking any of Callaghan, Erasmus or Goater then surely we need a 2nd pick for one of these types

 

[Jeffcrowe]

The actual point of difference our midfield needs is being good.

Plenty of good ones in my list

we don’t want to go from sloane the crouches x2 to another 3x the same height tough contested players that don’t have much versatility

otherwise could have just kept the same guys

 

[Mutineer]

How late do you think he goes and how does he compare to the likes of Knevitt and Howes types?
If we arent taking any of Callaghan, Erasmus or Goater then surely we need a 2nd pick for one of these types

Howes is a very different player to the other 2, in some ways similar to Callaghan athletically , he's a marking winger high half forward that works best in space IMO so I wouldn't be comparing him with the other two at all. The other 2 are what I'd deem as versatile midfielders and on that I think Ned Long compares very favourably with Mitch Knevitt, similar in many ways and both guys we should be rapt with if we landed them.

 

[Vader]

You been saying that for a while but a different picture is being painted from what I can see so I wont be surprised to see us address our weaknesses and to do that with 2 picks is almost impossible.
While 4 maybe unlikely 2 would be more so imo.
Midfielders, Mid/For and Small forwards are in our hitting zone especially if we split the pick.

We're not going to be addressing all of our needs in 2021. We'll still be down the bottom in 2022, with a stronger draft hand next year.

There is zero chance of us making 4 selections in the 2021 ND. I'd say it's 95% chance of 2-picks, and 5% chance of 3 picks - and that only happens if someone comes up with a blindingly good live trade on draft night.

Don't forget that we'll also have 2-3 RD selections, from the promotion of Butts/Strachan and the likely delisting of Davis. I don't expect us to use all of those picks though, reserving 1-2 places for PSSP and MSD selections.

 

[Betts are off]

Is Matty Roberts this year's biggest slider. I remember during the season people thought we would need to trade up from 6 to get him.

Now he'll likely be the 4th SA kid off the board, and a real chance to slip out of the 1st round entirely.

Watching his stock this last 12 weeks is enough to give a guy whiplash

 

[Dante Thunderstone]

Grain of salt moment no doubt, but one of the FoxFooty journos just outlined in an online chat that he believes Rachele will be our likely first pick.

 

[DaKids]

Is Matty Roberts this year's biggest slider. I remember during the season people thought we would need to trade up from 6 to get him.

Now he'll likely be the 4th SA kid off the board, and a real chance to slip out of the 1st round entirely.

Watching his stock this last 12 weeks is enough to give a guy whiplash

He’ll certainly be a player of interest on the night. He was correctly ranked high early as he was making a mess of the U18 SANFL comp. Since then he had a nasty injury. Came back and was settled into a minor role with South’s league which he played well enough. He’s not a permanent forward he’s a midfielder.

2 state games v WA. First one he recorded highest ranking points on the ground. 2nd one he was SA leading possessions and named 3rd best.

I think a club will still take him in the top 20, and I think if South’s had left him in U18 playing his preferred role he’d still be talked up as a top 10. He’s being judged at league level playing in a role there’s never a lot of output. Even so his prelim final of 10 touches 6 tackles and 2.1 shouldn’t be sneezed at. I’m defending him a lot mainly because he cops a pretty raw deal here.

 

[glengowan]

How good could Wanganeen-Milera be? His body size and skills look a bit like Shaun Burgoyne

9

Shaun Burgoyne

Age

43

Ht

186cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.0

4star

K

9.9

4star

HB

8.1

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.8

5star

MG

162.7

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

5.6

2star

HB

4.4

3star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.6

4star

MG

162.7

3star

D

6.2

2star

K

3.2

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.2

2star

T

1.6

4star

at a similar age. Burgoyne had that burst of power to his game (to go with the skills) which made him so good at stoppages and up forward. Does Wanganeen-Milera have that capability? We've only seen glimpses of Wayne Milera

30

Wayne Milera

Age

28

Ht

185cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.9

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.8

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.5

4star

MG

265.3

4star

D

15.0

4star

K

8.5

3star

HB

6.5

4star

M

3.5

3star

T

1.0

2star

MG

282.0

4star

D

11.4

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.4

4star

MG

182.0

3star

due to injury unfortunately and fingers crossed Wayne can get his body right from this point on, but he also has shown glimpses of power when at his best, albeit not to the extent of Burgoyne. Another similar player in terms of skills is Brad Hill, but does Wanganeen-Milera have the speed of Hill? Hill is also pretty much only an outside player - albeit a very good one.

If the trading for Pick 1 doesn't work out, could Wanganeen-Milera be a target? More so looking at how good he could be at 22 years old than any impact in the short term - although a smart footballer with skills such as his could still find an AFL role before his body develops.

 

[craig crowing]

We're not going to be addressing all of our needs in 2021. We'll still be down the bottom in 2022, with a stronger draft hand next year.

There is zero chance of us making 4 selections in the 2021 ND. I'd say it's 95% chance of 2-picks, and 5% chance of 3 picks - and that only happens if someone comes up with a blindingly good live trade on draft night.

Don't forget that we'll also have 2-3 RD selections, from the promotion of Butts/Strachan and the likely delisting of Davis. I don't expect us to use all of those picks though, reserving 1-2 places for PSSP and MSD selections.

Don't agree why wouldn't we have at least 3 picks especially with so many players especially SA players expected to slide and this can be achieved even more favourably if we can swap 4 for 7 and 15 .
As I see no value in holding Davis and ROC even as rookies as Davis has had his opportunities and ROC has no attributes that screams AFL or needs and we have many quality 2nd and 3rd year players we need to continue to develop and just need to keep adding talent to establish who will be part of our future team that will have us back vying for a premiership .

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Is Matty Roberts this year's biggest slider. I remember during the season people thought we would need to trade up from 6 to get him.

Now he'll likely be the 4th SA kid off the board, and a real chance to slip out of the 1st round entirely.

Watching his stock this last 12 weeks is enough to give a guy whiplash

Yes he is

 

[Jeffcrowe]

How good could Wanganeen-Milera be? His body size and skills look a bit like Shaun Burgoyne at a similar age. Burgoyne had that burst of power to his game (to go with the skills) which made him so good at stoppages and up forward. Does Wanganeen-Milera have that capability? We've only seen glimpses of Wayne Milera due to injury unfortunately and fingers crossed Wayne can get his body right from this point on, but he also has shown glimpses of power when at his best, albeit not to the extent of Burgoyne. Another similar player in terms of skills is Brad Hill, but does Wanganeen-Milera have the speed of Hill? Hill is also pretty much only an outside player - albeit a very good one.

If the trading for Pick 1 doesn't work out, could Wanganeen-Milera be a target? More so looking at how good he could be at 22 years old than any impact in the short term - although a smart footballer with skills such as his could still find an AFL role before his body develops.

Depends how much you want to value a pure outside mid

he’s a v good player for that position , doesn’t show too much ability to play anywhere else at this point but is the best for that specialist position in the draft

for Me that puts him at about pick 20 on my list for what we need

I don’t have Fejo too far behind him who could possibly get through to the 3rd round as an example , I think someone will take NWM before where i rate him that’s looking for that type exclusively

 

[Vader]

Don't agree why wouldn't we have at least 3 picks especially with so many players especially SA players expected to slide and this can be achieved even more favourably if we can swap 4 for 7 and 15 .
As I see no value in holding Davis and ROC even as rookies as Davis has had his opportunities and ROC has no attributes that screams AFL or needs and we have many quality 2nd and 3rd year players we need to continue to develop and just need to keep adding talent to establish who will be part of our future team that will have us back vying for a premiership .

I don't give a flying *** if there are South Australians available with later picks. I want the best available player. What our midfield needs is an elite midfielder, not more good but not elite mids. JHF is the only elite SA midfielder in this year's class, and he's almost certainly going to be going to North. If that leaves elite mids from Vic or WA to choose from, then we pick the Vic or WA kids. I want elite, not 2x good but not elite.

I have no issue with delisting Davis or ROC, but if our picks are #4, #33 and #75, then we're only selecting 2 players and the filling the remainder of the senior list with rookie upgrades (leaving space for Dawson in the PSD if necessary).

I can definitely see us delisting ROC (creating a 5th senior list vacancy). We would then fill the list with Dawson, #4, #33, Strachan & Butts (rookie upgrades). This is very plausible, far more plausible than making 4x ND selections.

 

[Mutineer]

I don't give a flying *** if there are South Australians available with later picks. I want the best available player. What our midfield needs is an elite midfielder, not more good but not elite mids. JHF is the only elite SA midfielder in this year's class, and he's almost certainly going to be going to North. If that leaves elite mids from Vic or WA to choose from, then we pick the Vic or WA kids. I want elite, not 2x good but not elite.

I have no issue with delisting Davis or ROC, but if our picks are #4, #33 and #75, then we're only selecting 2 players and the filling the remainder of the senior list with rookie upgrades (leaving space for Dawson in the PSD if necessary).

I can definitely see us delisting ROC (creating a 5th senior list vacancy). We would then fill the list with Dawson, #4, #33, Strachan & Butts (rookie upgrades). This is very plausible, far more plausible than making 4x ND selections.

The best available player even if it's not a midfielder?

And please define what you class as elite, remembering players that haven't projected as elite as U18 players have gone on to be just that. i.e. Gary Ablett Jr.

Who are the current long term elite players currently IYO?

 

[70lethal]

We're not going to be addressing all of our needs in 2021. We'll still be down the bottom in 2022, with a stronger draft hand next year.

There is zero chance of us making 4 selections in the 2021 ND. I'd say it's 95% chance of 2-picks, and 5% chance of 3 picks - and that only happens if someone comes up with a blindingly good live trade on draft night.

Don't forget that we'll also have 2-3 RD selections, from the promotion of Butts/Strachan and the likely delisting of Davis. I don't expect us to use all of those picks though, reserving 1-2 places for PSSP and MSD selections.

Wait you challenged my list of players we could delist because of this theory you had.
To quote " Talia will only leave if he retires and wont be pushed out".
To quote "Lynch and Kelly are highly unlikely to be going anywhere"
To Quote " I ironically failed to put a line through Strachan"
To Quote "MacKay and Davis the only easy decisions yet Davis is still here (temporarily I hope)

Bloody hard to be more wrong and Im still confused how your so sure on the 95% chance we wont take 3 picks

There is no need to upgrade Butts or Strachan and in fact there's potentially a strong reason not to. We can upgrade them next year and use our picks at the trade table if we choose to.
Look at next years list spots; Walker Himmleberg, Frampton, Rowe, Hinge, Gollant are the main ones out of contract with question marks

Our immediate needs are A grade classy midfielder/s and small forward. Every other position is covered with a young draft pick that may or may not make it.
I think we need to do the live trade there are just some many options to take a punt on that suit our needs due to lack of footy in Mel and clubs having tight lists.

 

[Betts are off]

He’ll certainly be a player of interest on the night. He was correctly ranked high early as he was making a mess of the U18 SANFL comp. Since then he had a nasty injury. Came back and was settled into a minor role with South’s league which he played well enough. He’s not a permanent forward he’s a midfielder.

2 state games v WA. First one he recorded highest ranking points on the ground. 2nd one he was SA leading possessions and named 3rd best.

I think a club will still take him in the top 20, and I think if South’s had left him in U18 playing his preferred role he’d still be talked up as a top 10. He’s being judged at league level playing in a role there’s never a lot of output. Even so his prelim final of 10 touches 6 tackles and 2.1 shouldn’t be sneezed at. I’m defending him a lot mainly because he cops a pretty raw deal here.

I agree, super raw deal. Seems to be one of those high floor players without any obvious flaws, with a massive tank and a weapon of a left boot. And has more senior footy experience then 90% of the class. TBH i'm quite shocked to see him mocked in the late teens, early 20's.

But the buzz seemed to come right off him after that injury.

If he goes where he's mocked he may end up being one of the bargain's of the draft when its all said and done

 

[Vader]

The best available player even if it's not a midfielder?

And please define what you class as elite, remembering players that haven't projected as elite as U18 players have gone on to be just that. i.e. Gary Ablett Jr.

Who are the current long term elite players currently IYO?

We're guaranteed to have at least 1 of Callaghan, Hobbs or Erasmus still on the table at pick 4 - probably 2 of the 3. All of them are better than any SA midfielders in this year's draft class, not named Jason Horne-Francis.

Yes, I get the point that not all elite players are drafted in the top-5, but your chances of drafting an elite player are much higher with those picks than they are later in the draft.

I'm happy to take SA kids if they're around the mark, as Thilthorpe was last year. I'm not happy to take them if they're nowhere near the best available player at that pick, and I definitely don't want us trading down and missing out on a potentially elite player, just because the lesser player comes from SA.

 

[Mutineer]

We're guaranteed to have at least 1 of Callaghan, Hobbs or Erasmus still on the table at pick 4 - probably 2 of the 3. All of them are better than any SA midfielders in this year's draft class, not named Jason Horne-Francis.

Yes, I get the point that not all elite players are drafted in the top-5, but your chances of drafting an elite player are much higher with those picks than they are later in the draft.

I'm happy to take SA kids if they're around the mark, as Thilthorpe was last year. I'm not happy to take them if they're nowhere near the best available player at that pick, and I definitely don't want us trading down and missing out on a potentially elite player, just because the lesser player comes from SA.

I wouldn't be so sure about that with Arlo Draper in particular who no doubt would be a target if we do trade down.

 

[ams4crows]

Wonder if Freo will take Amiss with 6 I suppose even if they rate Amiss higher Erasmus is more likely to go at 7 than Amiss hence why they'll take Erasmus first

Just like Carlton knew we loved McKay even though they wanted Curnow more, they knew we wouldn't take him so he'd be there the pick after ours. When they had 10 we had 11 and they had 12

 

[ams4crows]

West Coast have to be nervous that Freo are in the box seat to take both Erasmus and Amiss, the two best WA talents, unless they already know they are making a big play for McDonald next year

 

[Betts are off]

West Coast have to be nervous that Freo are in the box seat to take both Erasmus and Amiss, the two best WA talents, unless they already know they are making a big play for McDonald next year

I've said it before, for this very reason it wouldn't surprise me if there is a in-principal pickswap concept with WCE for them to leapfrog Freo.

It would have to be pretty sweet though. 10 + 2022 1st, would probably need to throw in their 2021 2nd as well to move from 10 to 4 (or you know, 12 to 6)