List Mgmt. 2021 draft pool.

[Lore]

 

[Cotchy9]

If we get that Bulldogs pick, we can set ourselves up for a Port Adelaide style haul where they nabbed Rozee, Butters, Duursma. Exciting times ahead

 

[Infamy]

I'd be surprised if that is true, unless there is some kind of limit that for example says you are only allowed to say use four picks or whatever as points to match a bid. I mean clubs regularly have late draft picks they don't use or trade in even fifth rounders etc, irrespective of how many spots they have available on their list, and with no intention of using but simply to help find a player a new home. Not saying it's not true, but first I've heard of it and when looking at grand scheme of things it would appear strange considering the autonomy clubs seem to enjoy in other trading aspects.

You can only hold on to as many draft picks as list spots that you have, the AFL 100% closed that loophole where clubs would trade in a bunch of 3rd & 4th round picks to accumulate points. So the only way the Dogs would go for a trade like that is if they were to lose players like Wallis, Lipinski and delist a few others. I'd suspect they wouldn't want any more than 3 picks to make up the trade and with enough value as as to leave them with one of the picks in the 3rd round to actually use on a selection once the bid is accepted.

I think that the only way to get the Doggies 1st this year would be to trade our 2022 1st for it. After a bid comes for Darcy they could then on trade it to someone like GWS to get another pick in the 1st rnd this year.

That won't work though, as once the Dogs trade out their 1st pick this year their next pick is only pick 69 which only carries 49 points in value. So if they were to trade it out for our 2022 1st rounder, once they match it will wipe out their 2022 1st round pick. Even by trading our pick back into the 1st round, they will still be carrying that deficit in 2022. If Darcy gets a bid at Pick 3 as expected, then the Dogs need the equivalent of Pick 6 in points to match the bid without affecting their 2022 draft. Pretty similar to the Pies in needing to get a lot more points than they have this year to avoid this hit.

 

[tigerfan1961]

You can only hold on to as many draft picks as list spots that you have, the AFL 100% closed that loophole where clubs would trade in a bunch of 3rd & 4th round picks to accumulate points. So the only way the Dogs would go for a trade like that is if they were to lose players like Wallis, Lipinski and delist a few others. I'd suspect they wouldn't want any more than 3 picks to make up the trade and with enough value as as to leave them with one of the picks in the 3rd round to actually use on a selection once the bid is accepted.

Well, looking at that table of draft picks at the top of this page, the Dogs are gonna need to trade in quite a few picks to gain the required points for Darcy. Interesting

 

[4tune8]

You can only hold on to as many draft picks as list spots that you have, the AFL 100% closed that loophole where clubs would trade in a bunch of 3rd & 4th round picks to accumulate points. So the only way the Dogs would go for a trade like that is if they were to lose players like Wallis, Lipinski and delist a few others. I'd suspect they wouldn't want any more than 3 picks to make up the trade and with enough value as as to leave them with one of the picks in the 3rd round to actually use on a selection once the bid is accepted.


That 100% won't happen as that would leave the Dogs massively short of points needed to match this year. Their only other pick with any points value in 2021 is pick 69 which only carries 49 points. It would essentially wipe out their 1st round pick and likely more next year, just like Collingwood will have happen to them if they don't get more points this year. If Darcy is selected with Pick 3 as expected, then Dogs need the equivalent of Pick 6 to match, so they really are going to need as many points as they can get this year to avoid getting hit in the 2022 draft as well.

I guess that depends on the compo for Wallis and the draft capital from Lipinski, also how they rate this years draft as opposed to next year.

They're going to lose this years 1st, by trading for our 1st next year and then on trading it after a bid they're essentially bringing their 1st from next forward after losing the points matching on Darcy

 

[Infamy]

Well, looking at that table of draft picks at the top of this page, the Dogs are gonna need to trade in quite a few picks to gain the required points for Darcy. Interesting

Sorry, I accidentally deleted the rest of my response to that post and had to retype it.
You are correct, Dogs are in a similar position to Collingwood this year, they are actually well short of the points they need to match a Top 3 bid for Darcy

Pick 3 is worth 2234 points, with a 20% discount that means the Dogs need 1787 points to match, but their current pick 11 is only worth 1161 points, with a shortfall of 626 points.

 

[Infamy]

I guess that depends on the compo for Wallis and the draft capital from Lipinski, also how they rate this years draft as opposed to next year.

They're going to lose this years 1st, by trading for our 1st next year and then on trading it after a bid they're essentially bringing their 1st from next forward after losing the points matching on Darcy

Wallis is 29 this year and won't get a huge deal, so I would be surprised if he got any FA compensation at all based on compensation history for older players.
Lipinski may get them a 3rd round pick, but even that wouldn't quite be enough to bridge the gap of what they need, they would still be better off trading it for enough points so that they can still use a pick or 2 in the middle of the draft rather than only getting the last picks in the draft after matching the bid.

 

[4tune8]

Wallis is 29 this year and won't get a huge deal, so I would be surprised if he got any FA compensation at all based on compensation history for older players.
Lipinski may get them a 3rd round pick, but even that wouldn't quite be enough to bridge the gap of what they need, they would still be better off trading it for enough points so that they can still use a pick or 2 in the middle of the draft rather than only getting the last picks in the draft after matching the bid.

I think that there's an elephant in the room by the name of Dunkley...I have no idea how that situation could impact the Doggies list managers

 

[Infamy]

I think that there's an elephant in the room by the name of Dunkley...I have no idea how that situation could impact the Doggies list managers

Well yes, that would change a lot, however any early pick that they land by trading him would be still be eaten up by the Darcy bid and they would then be able to use their own 1st pick. However, let's say Essendon got him and traded their 1st round pick, it would eat up that pick and then push their next first rounder back as a pick outside the Top 6 still isn't enough to match. So this is not the year to be trading Dunkley.

 

[Muddiemoose]

I think that there's an elephant in the room by the name of Dunkley...I have no idea how that situation could impact the Doggies list managers

12 months is a long time especially in footy, it was Essendon that looked like picking him up wasn’t it?
They may have moved past him with Parish stepping up this season
He’s contracted anyway for next year as well so he may not move at all

 

[4tune8]

Well yes, that would change a lot, however any early pick that they land by trading him would be still be eaten up by the Darcy bid and they would then be able to use their own 1st pick. However, let's say Essendon got him and traded their 1st round pick, it would eat up that pick and then push their next first rounder back as a pick outside the Top 6 still isn't enough to match. So this is not the year to be trading Dunkley.

They might not have a choice, he requested a trade to the Dons last year which fell through because Dodoro wasn't willing to give up 2 x 1sts, which would have been pick 7 and this years 1st (maybe 11)
If he's still keen to go then the Dons might stump up 11 this year and take a gamble on next year.

The doggies then have the issue of 2 x 1sts this year, say 11 & 13, so the smart move would be to cottonball one of those by trading into next year, swap the other out for points, then on trade the future 1st they got back into this year after the Darcy bid.

 

[4tune8]

12 months is a long time especially in footy, it was Essendon that looked like picking him up wasn’t it?
They may have moved past him with Parish stepping up this season
He’s contracted anyway for next year as well so he may not move at all

Yes it was, and he requested the trade. I think the offer was the Don's 1st last year and this years 2nd but the Doggies wanted last years and this years 1st

I reckon there's a possibility that he still wants out, just a gut feel, but his output since coming back from the shoulder reco has been less than inspiring.

 

[Infamy]

They might not have a choice, he requested a trade to the Dons last year which fell through because Dodoro wasn't willing to give up 2 x 1sts, which would have been pick 7 and this years 1st (maybe 11)
If he's still keen to go then the Dons might stump up 11 this year and take a gamble on next year.

The doggies then have the issue of 2 x 1sts this year, say 11 & 13, so the smart move would be to cottonball one of those by trading into next year, swap the other out for points, then on trade the future 1st they got back into this year after the Darcy bid.

He's still contracted and Dodoro is a tight ass, so yes, they do get a choice

 

[tigs2010]

If we get that Bulldogs pick, we can set ourselves up for a Port Adelaide style haul where they nabbed Rozee, Butters, Duursma. Exciting times ahead

Or Tambling, Meyer and Pattison

 

[Oshka]

Is Hobbs a bit vanilla?

 

[Muddiemoose]

Yes it was, and he requested the trade. I think the offer was the Don's 1st last year and this years 2nd but the Doggies wanted last years and this years 1st

I reckon there's a possibility that he still wants out, just a gut feel, but his output since coming back from the shoulder reco has been less than inspiring.

It’s very difficult to say, also another factor might be salary related
Treloar fell into their lap but still might of thrown a spanner in the works that they will need to manage over the next few seasons
It’s possible they simply can’t afford to have him (or someone else) on the books next season

 

[4tune8]

He's still contracted and Dodoro is a tight ass, so yes, they do get a choice

yes they do still have a choice but Dodoro might go with 11 this year and take a little gamble on the Dons improving and offer next years 1st (maybe 13-16) it's a fair bit better than 7 & 11 from his POV.

Dunkley is out of contract next year and if I were the Doggies list manager then I would try and extract maximum value from a player who has already indicated he wants out, if they don't then all they'll get is AFL compo which could be FA in comparison.

The end result for Doggies, if they were to trade out their 1st this year for our 1st next year and then trading our pick back into this year after the Darcy bid, as well as the Dunkley deal (and using the Dons pick for points this year) would be:

Darcy and a 1st rnd pick this year
their own 1st rnd pick next year, plus whoever's pick they get in exchange for trading our future 1st pick back out.

 

[Infamy]

yes they do still have a choice but Dodoro might go with 11 this year and take a little gamble on the Dons improving and offer next years 1st (maybe 13-16) it's a fair bit better than 7 & 11 from his POV.

Dunkley is out of contract next year and if I were the Doggies list manager then I would try and extract maximum value from a player who has already indicated he wants out, if they don't then all they'll get is AFL compo which could be FA in comparison.

The end result for Doggies, if they were to trade out their 1st this year for our 1st next year and then trading our pick back into this year after the Darcy bid, as well as the Dunkley deal (and using the Dons pick for points this year) would be:

Darcy and a 1st rnd pick this year
their own 1st rnd pick next year, plus whoever's pick they get in exchange for trading our future 1st pick back out.

You seem to be very keen to find a way to make your original suggestion of trading our 2022 1st round pick work.
I think you're grasping at straws and I don't care enough about it to keep finding reasons why it won't happen

 

[Tygrys]

You can only hold on to as many draft picks as list spots that you have, the AFL 100% closed that loophole where clubs would trade in a bunch of 3rd & 4th round picks to accumulate points. So the only way the Dogs would go for a trade like that is if they were to lose players like Wallis, Lipinski and delist a few others. I'd suspect they wouldn't want any more than 3 picks to make up the trade and with enough value as as to leave them with one of the picks in the 3rd round to actually use on a selection once the bid is accepted.


That won't work though, as once the Dogs trade out their 1st pick this year their next pick is only pick 69 which only carries 49 points in value. So if they were to trade it out for our 2022 1st rounder, once they match it will wipe out their 2022 1st round pick. Even by trading our pick back into the 1st round, they will still be carrying that deficit in 2022. If Darcy gets a bid at Pick 3 as expected, then the Dogs need the equivalent of Pick 6 in points to match the bid without affecting their 2022 draft. Pretty similar to the Pies in needing to get a lot more points than they have this year to avoid this hit.

That's really interesting. Assuming that Darcy went at three and they got a 20 percent discount, it would mean that both our seconds and our pick 40 or 44 would pretty well add up exactly to the points required (40 would be 64 more than they need, 44 would be a mere 3 points short). Clearly if we are to get capital from say trading Caddy or whoever, the best way of doing it are pick exchanges that increase the value of what we already have. Then obviously it becomes a question of whether it would be worth it if they were to go deep into the finals and the best scenario is they are bundled out in the first week.

A pick 12 would be good value for two mid range second rounders and a fourth. A pick 17 or 18 far less so. Oh well I guess I have another team to barrack against along with the cats

 

[4tune8]

You seem to be very keen to find a way to make your original suggestion of trading our 2022 1st round pick work.
I think you're grasping at straws and I don't care enough about it to keep finding reasons why it won't happen

Oh, ok.

It was just a bit of 'what if' for me.

I'd actually prefer that we keep next years pick cos **** knows what's gonna happen.

 

[Tigers Time]

We will pick whoever we think is best available with our first (if we keep it) regardless of what position they play imo. Most likely that means a mid because judging by the multitude of phantoms/rankings the only talls likely at our first pick are Gibcus and Andrews.

Going to be interesting to see where we rate this draft.

 

[tigerfan1961]

I guess that depends on the compo for Wallis and the draft capital from Lipinski, also how they rate this years draft as opposed to next year.

They're going to lose this years 1st, by trading for our 1st next year and then on trading it after a bid they're essentially bringing their 1st from next forward after losing the points matching on Darcy

They’ll get bugger all for Wallis. No club is going to offer big dollars and a long term deal to get them decent compo. Lipinski they’ve offered 3 years to and other clubs chasing, but won’t pony up much I reckon

 

[Tivva29]

Its only considered a shallow draft due to such limited exposure - direct quote from a development coach at the suns.

Agree. Good friend works at Sandy dragons. Believes there are gems everywhere in this draft it’s just that nobody has seen them.

 

[JR82]

Given that we traded heavily into this draft last yr we seemed to rate it highly last yr, as said above it's just that no1 has seen them, which might even make it easier to get who we really want as they haven't proven to other Clubs how good they are.

 

[YeOldTiger]

And if our recruiters are spot on - Thats actually a rebuild right there

7 - Cotchin Replacement
14 - Jack replacement
17 - Astbury replacement
26 - Edwards replacement


*Blake Schlensog - If we could perhaps get Blake or a similar freebee

Boom on all 5

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

Another thing to remember which is a little bonus regarding our 3rd round picks is
Collingwood has to match the Daicos bid which pretty much wipes out #33 , #39 , #41 , #45

Not sure with any other clubs so our 40 & 44 picks should go up 3 spots