Prediction 2021 Draft Predictions

[Lore]

For those who aren’t quite in a position to do a full phantom draft, but who would still like to have a go at predicting the draft, please use this thread to post your predictions

The current draft order is available in the pinned thread, here:

Resource - 2021 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

In accordance with board rules, phantom drafts which do not fulfil the requirements of a full first round using the current draft order (at time of posting), and preferably with a bit of explanation and willingness to explain your decisions, may also be merged into this thread.

Following the Trade Period, the current order for the first round of the draft is:

1. North Melbourne
2. GWS Giants
3. Gold Coast Suns
4. Adelaide
5. Hawthorn
6. Fremantle
7. Richmond
8. Fremantle
9. St Kilda
10. West Coast Eagles
11. Essendon
12. Port Adelaide
13. GWS Giants
14. Brisbane Lions
15. Richmond
16. Sydney Swans
17. Melbourne
18. Brisbane Lions

 

[Savage Kent]

First two rounds only.

1. North Melbourne - Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos (Bid Matched)
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy (Bid Matched)
4. GWS - Callaghan
5. Gold Coast - Andrew
6. Adelaide - Hobbs
7. Hawthorn - Ward
8. Fremantle - Erasmus
9. Richmond - Rachele
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Sinn
12. West Coast - Johnson
13. Essendon - Goater
14. Port Adelaide - Wangeneen-Milera
15. GWS - Gibcus
16. Brisbane - Van Rooyen
17. Richmond - Butler
18. Sydney - Wilmot
19. Melbourne - Sonsie
20. Brisbane - Taylor
21. Fremantle - Chesser

22. North Melbourne - Draper
23. Hawthorn - Howes
24. Geelong - Motlop
25. St Kilda - Owens (Bid Matched)
26. Hawthorn - Brown
27. Carlton - Knevitt
28. GWS - Fahey (Bid Matched)
29. Richmond - Roberts
30. Richmond - Clarke
31. Richmond - Bazzo
32. West Coast - Williams
33. Geelong - Conway
34. Sydney - MacDonald
35. Geelong - Sheldrick
36. Adelaide - Murley
37. Geelong - Alleer

 

[GWS Goose]

First two rounds only.

1. North Melbourne - Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos (Bid Matched)
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy (Bid Matched)
4. GWS - Callaghan
5. Gold Coast - Andrew
6. Adelaide - Hobbs
7. Hawthorn - Ward
8. Fremantle - Erasmus
9. Richmond - Rachele
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Sinn
12. West Coast - Johnson
13. Essendon - Goater
14. Port Adelaide - Wangeneen-Milera
15. GWS - Gibcus
16. Brisbane - Van Rooyen
17. Richmond - Butler
18. Sydney - Wilmot
19. Melbourne - Sonsie
20. Brisbane - Taylor
21. Fremantle - Chesser

22. North Melbourne - Draper
23. Hawthorn - Howes
24. Geelong - Motlop
25. St Kilda - Owens (Bid Matched)
26. Hawthorn - Brown
27. Carlton - Knevitt
28. GWS - Fahey (Bid Matched)
29. Richmond - Roberts
30. Richmond - Clarke
31. Richmond - Bazzo
32. West Coast - Williams
33. Geelong - Conway
34. Sydney - MacDonald
35. Geelong - Sheldrick
36. Adelaide - Murley
37. Geelong - Alleer

I'd be ecstatic with that for us

 

[BrutThough]

I would have thought Goater, Andrew and Erasmus would be the ones for you. If you go mid you want tall marking options that can push forward and Andrew has unicorn potential to add a nice point of difference to a same-ish list.

Except Andrew doesn't add to the main area we need something different in, which is the midfield.

Goater has some of the attributes we lack but looking at his draft profile which says his weaknesses are his kicking skills at times and a lack of endurance, he is also lacking two of the main things our list manager has said we want to add.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Freo will not pick Motlop, they’ll hope he slides past pick 40 and get him with our pick in the 60s

You cant match him before p40 under the rules anyway.

 

[pK75]

You cant match him before p40 under the rules anyway.

Yep, hence I said hoping he slides past 40 so we can match.

 

[Rob R]

1. NM - JHF.
2. WB - match bid for Darcy
3. GWS - Rachelle to fit forward line need. Didnt bid on Daicos as GWS don't tend to bid to annoy others and Daicos wouldnt fill a gap as nicely as Darcy.
4 Pies match bid on Daicos.
5 GCS - Callaghan. Gibcus probably would fill a need better but GCS can't afford to take time.
6 ADEL - Ward, better fit for them than Hobbs. Gibcus could be an option again given Crows limited KPD depth.
7 Hawks - Erasmums. (I think Hawks could test the water here and try swap 7 with Dockers for say 10 and 21 or Tigers for say 9 and 15 for 7 and one of the seconds. )
8 Dockers. Johnson. (they would take Erasmus if he hadnt just gone)
9. Tigers. Hobbs good fit to start rebuilding the mids. Johnson an option if he hadnt been taken.
10. Dockers. Jye Amiss, they get the KPF they need.
11. Saints. Gibcus to fill their gap down back. Thought of NVM.
12. WC. NVM as Johnson is gone.
13. Scum. Goater since NVM gone. Could reach for Butler to fill small forward need.
14. Port. Arlo Draper to meet midfield needs.
15. GWS. Sinn to give them more run.
16. Bris. Andrew to fill a need for young talls and they have time for him to develop.
17. Ric. Chesser to further boost the mids (as Goater and Draper gone).
18. Syd. Van Royen to start meeting their KPD needs.
19. Mlb. Sonsie based on best avail.
20. Bris. Wilmot to give them speed from defence and look to replacing Rich.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[calder_daddy]

First two rounds only.

1. North Melbourne - Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos (Bid Matched)
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy (Bid Matched)
4. GWS - Callaghan
5. Gold Coast - Andrew
6. Adelaide - Hobbs
7. Hawthorn - Ward
8. Fremantle - Erasmus
9. Richmond - Rachele
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Sinn
12. West Coast - Johnson
13. Essendon - Goater
14. Port Adelaide - Wangeneen-Milera
15. GWS - Gibcus
16. Brisbane - Van Rooyen
17. Richmond - Butler
18. Sydney - Wilmot
19. Melbourne - Sonsie
20. Brisbane - Taylor
21. Fremantle - Chesser

22. North Melbourne - Draper
23. Hawthorn - Howes
24. Geelong - Motlop
25. St Kilda - Owens (Bid Matched)
26. Hawthorn - Brown
27. Carlton - Knevitt
28. GWS - Fahey (Bid Matched)
29. Richmond - Roberts
30. Richmond - Clarke
31. Richmond - Bazzo
32. West Coast - Williams
33. Geelong - Conway
34. Sydney - MacDonald
35. Geelong - Sheldrick
36. Adelaide - Murley
37. Geelong - Alleer

If we end up with another Motlop I’ll be sick.
Overrated players who never stay at the one club.
No thanks

 

[PattyKwasagun]

1. NM - JHF.
2. WB - match bid for Darcy
3. GWS - Rachelle to fit forward line need. Didnt bid on Daicos as GWS don't tend to bid to annoy others and Daicos wouldnt fill a gap as nicely as Darcy.
4 Pies match bid on Daicos.
5 GCS - Callaghan. Gibcus probably would fill a need better but GCS can't afford to take time.
6 ADEL - Ward, better fit for them than Hobbs. Gibcus could be an option again given Crows limited KPD depth.
7 Hawks - I think Hawks could test the water here and try swap 7 with Dockers for say 10 and 21 or Tigers for say 9 and 15 for 7 and one of the seconds. But if no bites Eramus gets the nod with Hobbs next option.
8 Dockers. Erasmus if available, if not then Johnson.
9. Tigers. Hobbs good fit to start rebuilding the mids. Johnson an option.
10. Dockers. Jye Amiss, they get the KPF they need.
11. Saints. Gibcus to fill their gap down back. Thought of NVM.
12. WC. Johnson to start refreshing the mids. NVM if Johnson is gone.
13. Scum. NVM. Goater and Draper if NVM gone. Could reach for Butler to fill small forward need.
14. Port. Arlo Draper to meet midfield needs.
15. GWS. Sinn to give them more run.
16. Bris. Andrew to fill a need for young talls and they have time for him to develop.
17. Ric. Goater to further boost the mids.
18. Syd. Van Royen to start meeting their KPD needs.
19. Mlb. Sonsie based on best avail.
20. Bris. Wilmot to give them speed from defence and look to replacing Rich.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

It might be wishful thinking on my part, but I can't see GWS going Sinn. Feels like they've already got that type of player in Lachie Ash, and would have other priorities.

 

[mpal6]

Having the Giants pass on both Andrew and Gibcus for Rachele is... certainly unique. I'll leave it to the GWS fans to decide if that suits their list or not though.

What about Zac Taylor makes him a good fit for the Lions?

I feel our next step will be from improved ball use both out of defense and through the middle. I know we need a tall but I rather went for adding more depth in disposal precision area which I think we lack, which both Sinn and Taylor provide a lot. So far Zac has shown he can both find the footy and use it really well. I think he'll fit well for our group, could be either a Zorko or a Rich replacement.

 

[briztoon]

1. NM - JHF.
2. WB - match bid for Darcy
3. GWS - Rachelle to fit forward line need. Didnt bid on Daicos as GWS don't tend to bid to annoy others and Daicos wouldnt fill a gap as nicely as Darcy.
4 Pies match bid on Daicos.
5 GCS - Callaghan. Gibcus probably would fill a need better but GCS can't afford to take time.
6 ADEL - Ward, better fit for them than Hobbs. Gibcus could be an option again given Crows limited KPD depth.
7 Hawks - I think Hawks could test the water here and try swap 7 with Dockers for say 10 and 21 or Tigers for say 9 and 15 for 7 and one of the seconds. But if no bites Eramus gets the nod with Hobbs next option.
8 Dockers. Erasmus if available, if not then Johnson.
9. Tigers. Hobbs good fit to start rebuilding the mids. Johnson an option.
10. Dockers. Jye Amiss, they get the KPF they need.
11. Saints. Gibcus to fill their gap down back. Thought of NVM.
12. WC. Johnson to start refreshing the mids. NVM if Johnson is gone.
13. Scum. NVM. Goater and Draper if NVM gone. Could reach for Butler to fill small forward need.
14. Port. Arlo Draper to meet midfield needs.
15. GWS. Sinn to give them more run.
16. Bris. Andrew to fill a need for young talls and they have time for him to develop.
17. Ric. Goater to further boost the mids.
18. Syd. Van Royen to start meeting their KPD needs.
19. Mlb. Sonsie based on best avail.
20. Bris. Wilmot to give them speed from defence and look to replacing Rich.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

So Hawks actually didn’t pick anyone, which makes every selection after them pointless.

 

[Swiggy]

First two rounds only.

1. North Melbourne - Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos (Bid Matched)
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy (Bid Matched)
4. GWS - Callaghan
5. Gold Coast - Andrew
6. Adelaide - Hobbs
7. Hawthorn - Ward
8. Fremantle - Erasmus
9. Richmond - Rachele
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Sinn
12. West Coast - Johnson
13. Essendon - Goater
14. Port Adelaide - Wangeneen-Milera
15. GWS - Gibcus
16. Brisbane - Van Rooyen
17. Richmond - Butler
18. Sydney - Wilmot
19. Melbourne - Sonsie
20. Brisbane - Taylor
21. Fremantle - Chesser

22. North Melbourne - Draper
23. Hawthorn - Howes
24. Geelong - Motlop
25. St Kilda - Owens (Bid Matched)
26. Hawthorn - Brown
27. Carlton - Knevitt
28. GWS - Fahey (Bid Matched)
29. Richmond - Roberts
30. Richmond - Clarke
31. Richmond - Bazzo
32. West Coast - Williams
33. Geelong - Conway
34. Sydney - MacDonald
35. Geelong - Sheldrick
36. Adelaide - Murley
37. Geelong - Alleer

Don’t mind it but I hope freo take Draper if he’s there at 21

 

[Harry O]

Slider: Blake Howes.
No particular position on the ground. Jarrod Branders unsuccessful career at the Eagles may see clubs turn away from similar type players. Could be a great get in the 40's or 50's.

Riser: Zac Taylor
Wouldn't be surprised to see him go inside the top 15.

Think Howes has the potential to be an outstanding half back interceptor and rebounder in the Jeremy Howe mould

 

[Rob R]

So Hawks actually didn’t pick anyone, which makes every selection after them pointless.

For the purposes of the rest of it, they took Erasmus. I wasnt very clear sorry.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Rob R]

It might be wishful thinking on my part, but I can't see GWS going Sinn. Feels like they've already got that type of player in Lachie Ash, and would have other priorities.

True, they also have Fahey coming in. They are one of the hardest teams to get a read on, I can see them wanting a quality Kpf but none were near 2 or 13.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Except Andrew doesn't add to the main area we need something different in, which is the midfield.

Goater has some of the attributes we lack but looking at his draft profile which says his weaknesses are his kicking skills at times and a lack of endurance, he is also lacking two of the main things our list manager has said we want to add.

For mine I’m thinking Andrew has wing potential. Cox like attributes, roll forward support Marshall and to be the Ryder replacement in a year or two.

 

[Smythe]

ag

Think Howes has the potential to be an outstanding half back interceptor and rebounder in the Jeremy Howe mould

Agreed

 

[briztoon]

For the purposes of the rest of it, they took Erasmus. I wasnt very clear sorry.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

You better go through and fix every selection after, as it doesn’t pan out that way when following what you wrote.

 

[BrutThough]

For mine I’m thinking Andrew has wing potential. Cox like attributes, roll forward support Marshall and to be the Ryder replacement in a year or two.

You might be alone in that camp.

If Andrew was still there at pick 11, I presume we'd be straight on the phone to GWS and Richmond to see if they want to move up to get him.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

You might be alone in that camp.

If Andrew was still there at pick 11, I presume we'd be straight on the phone to GWS and Richmond to see if they want to move up to get him.

Thats all good, I was alone when I said Naughton would be a forward!

For mine, you can’t be spending more high draft picks on half backs or mids that lack versitiity, physicality or lightning pace.

 

[BrutThough]

Thats all good, I was alone when I said Naughton would be a forward!

For mine, you can’t be spending more high draft picks on half backs or one paced mids.

Saying a defender will end up playing forward is hardly the out of the box call that saying a ruck/fwd will play on the wing is.

We have a greater need to be using a high draft pick on a mid or half back with pace than on another tall. Especially a project tall who wont impact for 3-4 years.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

We have a greater need to be using a high draft pick on a mid or half back with pace than on another tall. Especially a project tall who wont impact for 3-4 years.

What’s the rush? You need to drop down and accumulate more talent before you rise again.

 

[BrutThough]

What’s the rush? You need to drop down and accumulate more talent before you rise again.

Nah, we don't.
Need to keep adding talent that complements and makes our current playing group better.

 

[theGav56]

Well of course. I'm asking why that poster believes Erasmus or Amiss are not worthy of picks 6 and 8.


Except they specifically mentioned top ten picks.


I agree.


Rachele is an SA local? Erasmus, Amiss and Johnson aren't best available? I think a good case can be made for Draper and Murley as being among the best available at their spots also.

Yawn.

 

[Asb1735]

Yeah I noticed that for us, WC, Port and Adelaide you have all predominantly taking home grown talent. Very few exceptions. To me it doesn't reflect what those clubs don't historically and ends up with clubs reaching. In the end it damages your phantom draft as a result.

Ok, assuming Fremantle don't take Motlop (Who they would know inside and out what he is capable of), and decide to go for a more speculative pick I guess they would chose Taylor.

Which means Hawthorn Probably Chose Clarke with pick 23, Then they might chose Howes with 27 as he is more versatile (and probably more of a need) then Brown or Roberts. Motlop goes to Carton as the have been seeking a Small forward for what feels like 5 years. Richmond Go For MacDonald. And West Coast Take Brown as a replacement for Hurn in a year.

 

[theGav56]

Ok, assuming Fremantle don't take Motlop (Who they would know inside and out what he is capable of), and decide to go for a more speculative pick I guess they would chose Taylor.

Which means Hawthorn Probably Chose Clarke with pick 23, Then they might chose Howes with 27 as he is more versatile (and probably more of a need) then Brown or Roberts. Motlop goes to Carton as the have been seeking a Small forward for what feels like 5 years. Richmond Go For MacDonald. And West Coast Take Brown as a replacement for Hurn in a year.

I'm not especially trying to get you to change that pick. I am more pointing out that a fair chunk of your draft is underpinned by the idea that 4 of the clubs will prioritise local talent over best available. Historically they don't. Fremantle may prefer Vic Country over Vic Metro, but I'm not sure that's about to home factor.

Cerra leaving is a bummer, as was Kelly and Clark leaving Geelong, but they'll continue to draft from WA.