Prediction 2021 Draft Predictions

[Lore]

For those who aren’t quite in a position to do a full phantom draft, but who would still like to have a go at predicting the draft, please use this thread to post your predictions

The current draft order is available in the pinned thread, here:

Resource - 2021 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

In accordance with board rules, phantom drafts which do not fulfil the requirements of a full first round using the current draft order (at time of posting), and preferably with a bit of explanation and willingness to explain your decisions, may also be merged into this thread.

Following the Trade Period, the current order for the first round of the draft is:

1. North Melbourne
2. GWS Giants
3. Gold Coast Suns
4. Adelaide
5. Hawthorn
6. Fremantle
7. Richmond
8. Fremantle
9. St Kilda
10. West Coast Eagles
11. Essendon
12. Port Adelaide
13. GWS Giants
14. Brisbane Lions
15. Richmond
16. Sydney Swans
17. Melbourne
18. Brisbane Lions

 

[Prochard123]

1. Jason Horne-Fancis-North Melbourne
2.Sam Darcy-bid by GWS matched by the Western Bulldogs
3. Josh Diacos- bid by GWS matched by Collingwood
4.Finn Callaghan- GWS
5.Josh Gicbus- GoldCoast
6.Josh Rachele- Adelaide
7.Josh Ward- Hawthorn
8.Josh Amiss- Fremantle
9.Ben Hobbs- Richmond
10. Noel Erasmus- Fremantle
11. Naisah Wanganeen-Milera
12.Josh Sinn- West coast
13.Mac Andrew- Essendon
14.Josh Goater- Port Adelaide
15. Blake Howes- GWS
16.Campbell Chesser- Brisbane Lions
17.Jacob Van-Rooyen-Richmond
18.Darcy Wilmot- Sydney
19.Matthew Johnson- Melbourne
20. Tyler Sonsie- Brisbane Lions

Josh Daicos reentering into the draft as a Father-son after 3 years in the system? really cool

 

[blueiris]

Josh Daicos reentering into the draft as a Father-son after 3 years in the system? really cool

There’s basically 15 Josh’s in this years draft I got confused

 

[exxcessivve]

1. North Melbourne - Josh Horne-Francis.
2. GWS - Josh Callaghan
3. Collingwood - Josh Daicos

7

Josh Daicos

Age

25

Ht

178cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.3

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.3

3star

D

16.2

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.5

4star

CL

1.5

4star

D

13.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.2

4star

4. Western Bulldogs - Josh Darcy
5. Gold Coast - Josh Andrews
6. Adelaide - Josh Rachele
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward
8. Fremantle - Josh Amiss
9. Richmond - Josh Hobbs
10. Fremantle - Josh Johnson
11. St Kilda - Josh Sinn
12. West Coast -Josh Erasmus
13. Essendon - Josh van Rooyen
14. Port Adelaide - Josh Wanganeen-Milera
15. GWS - Josh Gibcus
16. Brisbane - Josh Wilmot
17. Richmond - Josh Sonsie
18. Sydney - Josh Goater
19. Melbourne - Josh Butler
20. Brisbane - Josh Chesser

 

[Milanista28]

Got to Josh Andrews before I was like "wait a minute"

 

[Paracleet]

Got to Josh Andrews before I was like "wait a minute"

I also didn't notice till pick 5.

 

[Revan11]

It happened in 2018 too. GC gave up 27 and 32 to get to 23 (last pick of the first round; for McLennan), and GWS gave up 28 and Carlton's future second to get up to 24 (first pick of the second round; for Hill). Clubs are willing to give up a lot to get up the order and nab someone they feel has slid/want to jump in before another club.

Last year was a bit different because it went back to the single night draft.

If you think about the success rate of second round picks it makes a lot of sense why these sorts for 2 for 1 trades have happened. Especially if the club rates the player that has slid as first round quality I.e. Dev Robertson

 

[fargothegreat]

1. North Melbourne - Josh Horne-Francis.
2. GWS - Josh Callaghan
3. Collingwood - Josh Daicos
4. Western Bulldogs - Josh Darcy
5. Gold Coast - Josh Andrews
6. Adelaide - Josh Rachele
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward
8. Fremantle - Josh Amiss
9. Richmond - Josh Hobbs
10. Fremantle - Josh Johnson
11. St Kilda - Josh Sinn
12. West Coast -Josh Erasmus
13. Essendon - Josh van Rooyen
14. Port Adelaide - Josh Wanganeen-Milera
15. GWS - Josh Gibcus
16. Brisbane - Josh Wilmot
17. Richmond - Josh Sonsie
18. Sydney - Josh Goater
19. Melbourne - Josh Butler
20. Brisbane - Josh Chesser

I think you might be joshing with that list

 

[WCE_phil]

Brisbane did give up a fair price to get Robertson

What was the deal last year though?

If the right player is there I am hopeful West Coast offers brisbane their future second plus 35 or 29 to get 18 this year. It'd probably have to be 29 but it also gives them points for Ashcroft next year. If West Coast continues to slide its a pick in the mid to high 20's next year, worst case it's a mid 30's pick.

 

[GWS Goose]

1. North Melbourne - Josh Horne-Francis.
2. GWS - Josh Callaghan
3. Collingwood - Josh Daicos
4. Western Bulldogs - Josh Darcy
5. Gold Coast - Josh Andrews
6. Adelaide - Josh Rachele
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward
8. Fremantle - Josh Amiss
9. Richmond - Josh Hobbs
10. Fremantle - Josh Johnson
11. St Kilda - Josh Sinn
12. West Coast -Josh Erasmus
13. Essendon - Josh van Rooyen
14. Port Adelaide - Josh Wanganeen-Milera
15. GWS - Josh Gibcus
16. Brisbane - Josh Wilmot
17. Richmond - Josh Sonsie
18. Sydney - Josh Goater
19. Melbourne - Josh Butler
20. Brisbane - Josh Chesser

I forgotten which players aren't actually named Josh

 

[JasRulz63]

If the right player is there I am hopeful West Coast offers brisbane their future second plus 35 or 29 to get 18 this year. It'd probably have to be 29 but it also gives them points for Ashcroft next year. If West Coast continues to slide its a pick in the mid to high 20's next year, worst case it's a mid 30's pick.

All the indications from the club is that we're happy with where our picks sit. Can't imagine the club will be to keen to move our pick back 11 spots for just points for next year (which we can worry about then).

 

[WCE_phil]

All the indications from the club is that we're happy with where our picks sit. Can't imagine the club will be to keen to move our pick back 11 spots for just points for next year (which we can worry about then).

That's fair enough. Just the possibility of it been a fair and equitable trade, likely in Brisbanes favour particularly if the player they wanted wasn't there at 18 and one that West Coast really want is there. It would then also allow us if the rumours of McDonald are true we could trade our 2022 and 2023 first rounder for him with Sydney's 2022 second coming back the other way.

 

[theGav56]

Notes
Gold Coast with the loss of Greenwood, probably a slightly different tact to planned. They are said to be big on Hobbs, but pre-greenwood I think they would have went Andrew or Gibcus
Richmond would have liked to grab Ward or Hobbs with the first pick, both off the board, they are said to like Sinn and would have probably like to trade up to get him with the second pick after taking one Ward or Hobbs first.
St Kilda- Considered Andrew here but thought they would priortise outside class with this pick over the project pick.
West Coast- Take Gibcus as the slider and a best available pick
Essendon- Found Essendon a tough choice here, no obvious holes in the list, think Johnson as a well performed well balanced midfielder might go here.
GWS- Get Andrew who will be considered by most teams, but as a project player I think most will opt for a more ready made option Essendon may take him
Brisbane- Goater is a risk reward selection, great athlete, clear flaws, Brisbane in a position to take this risk
Richmond- Chesser some outside class, given they didnt get an inside mid earlier, may opt for a hard nut here, perhaps Draper or the take the likelybig slider Roberts with a pick in the 20's
Sydney- Will need to replace the battle hardened midfield shortly, class galore on the outside, think Draper may fill this role
Melbourne- Pretty sorted everywhere, a young tall at that can play at either end will add depth to their squad.
Brisbane- Wilmott long term defender seems to suit their needs

Fremantle looking certain to loose Lobb will get very excited to see Andrew available. And he is no more of a project than Amiss.

 

[Remboy]

I also didn't notice till pick 5.

Notice what? Lol

 

[GWS Goose]

Fremantle looking certain to loose Lobb will get very excited to see Andrew available. And he is no more of a project than Amiss.

Absolutely a chance to pick Andrew. The WA thing is over emphasized in these phantoms, but it played in to me picking Amiss.
I actually think a lot of sides will consider Andrew. Could go anywhere from 2 (which will be 4) and 13 (15)

 

[briztoon]

If the right player is there I am hopeful West Coast offers brisbane their future second plus 35 or 29 to get 18 this year. It'd probably have to be 29 but it also gives them points for Ashcroft next year. If West Coast continues to slide its a pick in the mid to high 20's next year, worst case it's a mid 30's pick.

Gees no.

 

[2006_Eagles]

1. North Melbourne - Josh Horne-Francis.
2. GWS - Josh Callaghan
3. Collingwood - Josh Daicos
4. Western Bulldogs - Josh Darcy
5. Gold Coast - Josh Andrews
6. Adelaide - Josh Rachele
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward
8. Fremantle - Josh Amiss
9. Richmond - Josh Hobbs
10. Fremantle - Josh Johnson
11. St Kilda - Josh Sinn
12. West Coast -Josh Erasmus
13. Essendon - Josh van Rooyen
14. Port Adelaide - Josh Wanganeen-Milera
15. GWS - Josh Gibcus
16. Brisbane - Josh Wilmot
17. Richmond - Josh Sonsie
18. Sydney - Josh Goater
19. Melbourne - Josh Butler
20. Brisbane - Josh Chesser

Username checks out

 

[theGav56]

Absolutely a chance to pick Andrew. The WA thing is over emphasized in these phantoms, but it played in to me picking Amiss.
I actually think a lot of sides will consider Andrew. Could go anywhere from 2 (which will be 4) and 13 (15)

The big negative for me regarding Amiss is that he has one position, and even in that position he has a major limitation being unable to kick beyond 40mtrs. All fine if that works out, but I am unconvinced about having him ahead of Van Rooyen or even Williams. And the blue sky potential that Andrew projects has big appeal.

 

[WCE_phil]

Gees no.

So take the Eagles second half of year form where the club went 2 and 9. You saying you wouldn't take 29 this year and 19-22 next year for pick 18?

 

[briztoon]

So take the Eagles second half of year form where the club went 2 and 9. You saying you wouldn't take 29 this year and 19-22 next year for pick 18?

No.

It’s not about the picks. It’s about the talent available at where your pick 29 likely ends up.

I wouldn’t consider picking up extra draft points for next year to downgrade the talent pool from which to pick from this year.

I’ve got a clear talent gap from about pick 24/25 to the next lot of players on board.

 

[WCE_phil]

No.

It’s not about the picks. It’s about the talent available at where your pick 29 likely ends up.

I wouldn’t consider picking up extra draft points for next year to downgrade the talent pool from which to pick from this year.

I’ve got a clear talent gap from about pick 24/25 to the next lot of players on board.

Fair enough. I see 3 genuine top talents, 2 highly risky top talents, then about 10 of roughly equal quality all with different deficiencies in their game and then another 20 who I would be happy with as second rounders. I obviously have who I want west coast to pick and all are likely to be there with our current picks. It was more a hypothetical and more so, so that as a club we have the ability to trade 2 first rounders next year. Mind you if West Coasts second half form continues all of next year it's pretty irrelevant even if Logan Mcdonald does request the trade back a top 4 pick and a second rounder would get the job done for an out of contract player, particularly in a draft pool stacked with talls.

 

[Revan11]

1. North Melbourne – JHF
2. Western Bulldogs – Sam Darcy (Matching GWS Bid)
3. Collingwood – Nick Daicos (Matching GWS Bid)
4. GWS – Finn Callaghan
5. Gold Coast – Mac Andrew
6. Adelaide – Josh Rachelle
7. Hawthorn – Matthew Johnson
8. Fremantle – Ben Hobbs (potential slider)
9. Richmond – Josh Ward (potential slider)
10. Fremantle – Jye Amiss
11. St Kilda – Josh Gibcus
12. West Coast – Neil Erasmus
13. Essendon – NWM
14. Port Adelaide – Josh Sinn
15. GWS – Sam Butler
    Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]
    (I think Draper could go here)
16. Brisbane – Darcy Wilmott
17. Richmond – JVR
18. Sydney – Campbell Chesser
19. Melbourne – Tyler Sonsie
20. Brisbane – Josh Goater

 

[Jen2310]

1. North Melbourne – JHF
2. Western Bulldogs – Sam Darcy (Matching GWS Bid)
3. Collingwood – Nick Daicos (Matching GWS Bid)
4. GWS – Finn Callaghan
5. Gold Coast – Mac Andrew
6. Adelaide – Josh Rachelle
7. Hawthorn – Matthew Johnson
8. Fremantle – Ben Hobbs (potential slider)
9. Richmond – Josh Ward (potential slider)
10. Fremantle – Jye Amiss
11. St Kilda – Josh Gibcus
12. West Coast – Neil Erasmus
13. Essendon – NWM
14. Port Adelaide – Josh Sinn
15. GWS – Sam Butler (I think Draper could go here)
16. Brisbane – Darcy Wilmott
17. Richmond – JVR
18. Sydney – Campbell Chesser
19. Melbourne – Tyler Sonsie
20. Brisbane – Josh Goater

Swap #3 and #4 now its evident GWS arent bidding on Daicos.

 

[Revan11]

Swap #3 and #4 now its evident GWS arent bidding on Daicos.

Makes no sense why they wouldn’t. Unless for goodwill with the Pies.

 

[Jen2310]

Makes no sense why they wouldn’t. Unless for goodwill with the Pies.

Not sure. Just going on what Nick said tonight. That they never even interviewed him and dont plan on bidding (I imagine you wouldn't bid if you never talked to the player at all)

 

[Membling]

Not sure. Just going on what Nick said tonight. That they never even interviewed him and dont plan on bidding (I imagine you wouldn't bid if you never talked to the player at all)

Alternatively, why bother interview someone when a club is 100% certain to match anyway.

Already establish via media and a 4 year contract on the table. No point wasting time