Prediction 2021 Draft Predictions

[Lore]

For those who aren’t quite in a position to do a full phantom draft, but who would still like to have a go at predicting the draft, please use this thread to post your predictions

The current draft order is available in the pinned thread, here:

Resource - 2021 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

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In accordance with board rules, phantom drafts which do not fulfil the requirements of a full first round using the current draft order (at time of posting), and preferably with a bit of explanation and willingness to explain your decisions, may also be merged into this thread.

Following the Trade Period, the current order for the first round of the draft is:

1. North Melbourne
2. GWS Giants
3. Gold Coast Suns
4. Adelaide
5. Hawthorn
6. Fremantle
7. Richmond
8. Fremantle
9. St Kilda
10. West Coast Eagles
11. Essendon
12. Port Adelaide
13. GWS Giants
14. Brisbane Lions
15. Richmond
16. Sydney Swans
17. Melbourne
18. Brisbane Lions

 

[GWS Goose]

Just as we regret taking vickery one spot before Ziebell, and taking ben lennon instead of patrick cripps one pick later, and ben griffiths instead of fyfe who went one pick later.
Imagine getting martin and fyfe in one draft!!

But it changes everything, maybe you'd have been forced to trade someone out and all of a sudden you dont have those 3 premierships.

 

[Smythe]

But it changes everything, maybe you'd have been forced to trade someone out and all of a sudden you dont have those 3 premierships.

yeah i understand that, but hindsight is unbearable in these cases

 

[theGav56]

Hawks are apparently offering Freo a future first and pick 24 for pick 8 (10) and 19 (21). This is so they can get Ward, Johnson, Sonsie and a slider.

Pick 8(10) and f1 cancel each other out.

Pick 19(21) is way more valuable than 24. Live trade may get a f1 from a likely finalist plus a second rounder.

 

[Prochard123]

So they think Freo are fools and want to rob them blind?

That's what that offer is.

Nah that's pretty fair, Hawthorn's future 1st will be a top 5 pick if not a top 3 pick.

 

[blueiris]

I think 21 is getting serious overrated especially in this draft that has no serious depth

 

[Mofra]

What a putrid offer from the hawks, surely not

As a neutral I can't see Freo doing this either, even if a Hawks future first is likely to be in the first couple of picks.
There's the opportunity to have highly rated kids in the system 12 months earlier to consider and I doubt you'd want to waste the opportunity to use Mundy's expertise/guidance for an extra year (assuming one of your picks is for a mid, Amiss a real chance for you with one of the picks).

 

[freo99]

Nah that's pretty fair, Hawthorn's future 1st will be a top 5 pick if not a top 3 pick.

You’re underestimating Sam Mitchell.
I would have thought that would be Pie territory, but picking up McRae as coach I think is
a masterstroke.

Both the Hawks + Pies will be climbing that ladder, maybe even finals.

 

[Sturty2Hurty]

What a putrid offer from the hawks, surely not

We rarely get an opportunity to deathride. I'd be tempted. Throw in some late picks.

 

[Prochard123]

You’re underestimating Sam Mitchell.
I would have thought that would be Pie territory, but picking up McRae as coach I think is
a masterstroke.

Both the Hawks + Pies will be climbing that ladder, maybe even finals.

LOL

I highly doubt this.

You have to look at it in terms of marginal gains. Is Mitchell that much better than Clarko he can turn a bottom 5 team into a top 8 team? Very confident it's a no.

 

[WilloTree]

Hawks are apparently offering Freo a future first and pick 24 for pick 8 (10) and 19 (21). This is so they can get Ward, Johnson, Sonsie and a slider.

Based on the history of clubs buying a top 10 pick, the F1 and 24 will get the Hawks Pick 8.

Ignore the pick 19 bit. That's fantasy.

 

[Smythe]

You’re underestimating Sam Mitchell.
I would have thought that would be Pie territory, but picking up McRae as coach I think is
a masterstroke.

Both the Hawks + Pies will be climbing that ladder, maybe even finals.

Wow, no way

 

[Blackhawk42]

LOL

I highly doubt this.

You have to look at it in terms of marginal gains. Is Mitchell that much better than Clarko he can turn a bottom 5 team into a top 8 team? Very confident it's a no.

Depends on what impact two returning stars in Gunston and Sicily can achieve in 2022. Plus how the side reacts to a new, attacking game plan.

Anyway, that's a bit off topic. The proposed trade is horrible for Fremantle. Essentially shifting one of their first rounders into next year and losing spots in their early second rounder this year.

 

[GWS Goose]

You’re underestimating Sam Mitchell.
I would have thought that would be Pie territory, but picking up McRae as coach I think is
a masterstroke.

Both the Hawks + Pies will be climbing that ladder, maybe even finals.

This would shock me.

 

[TheLastCall]

Hawks are apparently offering Freo a future first and pick 24 for pick 8 (10) and 19 (21). This is so they can get Ward, Johnson, Sonsie and a slider.

If Johnson is there at 8(10) no chance that will happen.
Also a horrible deal.
No chance 8(10) is traded for a future first.

19(21) could go for a future first on day 2.

 

[Prochard123]

I think 21 is getting serious overrated especially in this draft that has no serious depth

I don't disagree but what is this based on?

Personally I see a tier 1 from 1 - 4, tier 2 from 5 - 18 ish. I do think the number of players in contention of 1st round is lower than usual.

 

[blueiris]

I don't disagree but what is this based on?

Personally I see a tier 1 from 1 - 4, tier 2 from 5 - 18 ish. I do think the number of players in contention of 1st round is lower than usual.

The clubs not really sure on the talent of the Victorians they haven’t played for 2 years and have to go back on some form that players showed at under 16 levels

 

[freo99]

Wow, no way

Seeing you support Richmond + don’t like my post

How about Dusty’s injury is going to take decent toll on him,
may even affect his career

 

[Smythe]

Seeing you support Richmond + don’t like my post

How about Dusty’s injury is going to take decent toll on him,
may even affect his career

they dont have the cattle to climb the ladder or push for finals next year, who would they displace.

 

[Swiggy]

Who are Richmond trying to trade up for? Ward rachele??

 

[freo99]

they dont have the cattle to climb the ladder or push for finals next year, who would they displace.

Every year has its surprises, McRae is a real gun he will bring that camaraderie that teams need.

Mitchell is a freak, just a lot smarter than most.

Push for finals is what I think, Geelong are due for a fall sooner or later, the Lions may find things
a bit harder, with WC + the Saints to slide as well.

I do hope Dusty comes out ok, but when it happened I thought it looked like he
was in trouble. Absolutely no fat on him to cushion the blow.

 

[Smythe]

Every year has its surprises, McRae is a real gun he will bring that camaraderie that teams need.

Mitchell is a freak, just a lot smarter than most.

Push for finals is what I think, Geelong are due for a fall sooner or later, the Lions may find things
a bit harder, with WC + the Saints to slide as well.

I do hope Dusty comes out ok, but when it happened I thought it looked like he
was in trouble. Absolutely no fat on him to cushion the blow.

That is correct with Mitchell and McRae, but they don’t have the cattle yet, 2 or 3 seasons each before pushing for finals, both will have veterans leaving next year and fresh young squads.

They will both have positive influences on their teams and bring them up maybe quicker than people think….but not next year.

Geelong MAY fall, but out of the finals, not so sure, stk should get/play better with their players un-injured, wce is an uncertainty at the moment and no way lions fall out of the eight.

Dusty has maintained from early on that he will not play on well into his 30’s and being that his contract is up in 2024 and he will be 33 that may see him out therefore giving him 3 years left, he will be fine and still be a contributor for those 3 years and come back well from this injury To help push the tigers hopefully back into the finals bracket.

 

[Lord of the Wings]

Pick 8(10) and f1 cancel each other out.

Pick 19(21) is way more valuable than 24. Live trade may get a f1 from a likely finalist plus a second rounder.

Hawks future first is way more valuable than 10. Its likely to be a top 2 pick and certain to be at least top 5.

Seems like a very fair deal.

 

[Lore]

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[TheLastCall]

Hawks future first is way more valuable than 10. Its likely to be a top 2 pick and certain to be at least top 5.

Seems like a very fair deal.

Future trading is a lottery.
GWS won it last year
24,30 future 4th for col future 1st (2).

10 in the hand is worth more than a pick that could come anywhere 1-13. Doubt it will be 1 or 2.

 

[DragoDelph]

Only way it happens, is if it happens early enough in this draft to flip it back into quality pick this year, maybe restore our future hand as well