Prediction 2021 Draft Predictions

[Lore]

For those who aren’t quite in a position to do a full phantom draft, but who would still like to have a go at predicting the draft, please use this thread to post your predictions

The current draft order is available in the pinned thread, here:

Resource - 2021 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

In accordance with board rules, phantom drafts which do not fulfil the requirements of a full first round using the current draft order (at time of posting), and preferably with a bit of explanation and willingness to explain your decisions, may also be merged into this thread.

Following the Trade Period, the current order for the first round of the draft is:

1. North Melbourne
2. GWS Giants
3. Gold Coast Suns
4. Adelaide
5. Hawthorn
6. Fremantle
7. Richmond
8. Fremantle
9. St Kilda
10. West Coast Eagles
11. Essendon
12. Port Adelaide
13. GWS Giants
14. Brisbane Lions
15. Richmond
16. Sydney Swans
17. Melbourne
18. Brisbane Lions

 

[blueiris]

They also left Amiss on the board every mock I’m seeing lately has the Lions taking Wilmot not sure I see it personally with players like Chesser still on the board

 

[eth-dog]

They also left Amiss on the board every mock I’m seeing lately has the Lions taking Wilmot not sure I see it personally with players like Chesser still on the board

Went at 10 for Freo

 

[blueiris]

Went at 10 for Freo

It was in response to Richmond not taking a forward yet trading up

 

[briztoon]

In mocks Wilmot is getting linked to the Lions I’m sure that has more to do with getting Sharp last year than actually needs based

There’s been a bit of talk/rumour that the Lions have put a lot of work in to Wilmot.

 

[blueiris]

There’s been a bit of talk/rumour that the Lions have put a lot of work in to Wilmot.

From where ?

 

[briztoon]

They also left Amiss on the board every mock I’m seeing lately has the Lions taking Wilmot not sure I see it personally with players like Chesser still on the board

My guess is JVR at our first and Wilmot at our second with Chesser already off the board.

 

[briztoon]

From where ?

That’s hard to say. If I had to guess, it’s been read on the Lions board, and grown a life from there.

 

[pK75]

My guess is JVR at our first and Wilmot at our second with Chesser already off the board.

I reckon Freo are into JVR in a big way, but pick 10 is too high for him, any chance Brisbane would swap 16&20 for pick 8?

 

[triple treat]

so Gold Coast get the chance to pick 1 excellent prospect this year and they give it away, Richmond need forward line youth and pick a slow mid leaving JVR on the board, and Sydney who drafted a ruck mid season and traded for a ruck with port then go and pick up Conway with their 1 and only early pick........

I got no idea mate, just having a bit of fun. No need to get upset.

 

[briztoon]

I reckon Freo are into JVR in a big way, but pick 10 is too high for him, any chance Brisbane would swap 16&20 for pick 8?

Do you mean 8 or 10?

We’re not in a position to trade 2 picks for one. We either would need a pick back in the 20’s this year, or a future second round pick.

 

[Thetrader15]

1. North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Nick Daicos (F/S)
3. Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy (F/S)
4. GWS Giants - Mac Andrew
5. Hawthorn - ( traded for future 1st and 21) Finn Callaghan
6. Tigers - ( traded with Adelaide for 7 and 26 future 3rd going back to Tigers) Ben Hobbs
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward
8. Fremantle - Neil Erasmus
9. Adelaide - Josh Rachele
10. Fremantle - Jye Amiss
11. St Kilda - Josh Gibcus
12. West Coast Eagles - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
13. Essendon - Campbell Chesser
14. Port Adelaide - Arlo Draper
15. GWS Giants - Sam Butler
16. Brisbane - Josh Sinn
17. Richmond - Matthew Roberts
18. Sydney Swans - Darcy Wilmot
19. Melbourne - Jacob van Rooyen
20. Brisbane - Josh Goater

From an Adelaide perspective, I don't see doing that trade of 4, 2022/3 for 7, 26. I can only see us trading 4 if we get 7 and 15 (maybe with 33 or a future pick coming back).

I also don't see us taking Rachele, we'd be after a mid like Goater, NWM at that pick IMO.

No way Richmond would take Roberts ahead of Goater either.

 

[GWS Goose]

From an Adelaide perspective, I don't see doing that trade of 4, 2022/3 for 7, 26. I can only see us trading 4 if we get 7 and 15 (maybe with 33 or a future pick coming back).

I also don't see us taking Rachele, we'd be after a mid like Goater, NWM at that pick IMO.

No way Richmond would take Roberts ahead of Goater either.

No way you make that trade.

 

[pK75]

Do you mean 8 or 10?

We’re not in a position to trade 2 picks for one. We either would need a pick back in the 20’s this year, or a future second round pick.

pick 6 which becomes pick 8 was my thinking, no way would Brisbane swap 16&20 for pick 10. Unfortunately Freo don’t have anything to sweeten the deal except Geelong’s future 4th which is pretty low, or the picks in the 60’s which they’ll be hoping to use on a bid for Benning if it comes.

 

[briztoon]

pick 6 which becomes pick 8 was my thinking, no way would Brisbane swap 16&20 for pick 10. Unfortunately Freo don’t have anything to sweeten the deal except Geelong’s future 4th which is pretty low, or the picks in the 60’s which they’ll be hoping to use on a bid for Benning if it comes.

Do you have a future second round pick?

 

[pK75]

Do you have a future second round pick?

Nope, traded to GC for Brodie and pick 19, along with future 4th, future 3rd went to Pies to move 27 up to 22, which then went to cats for Clark, literally have our 1st and Geelong’s 4th next year.

 

[DeLaCon]

I think richmond go Hobbs, Ward, Johnson or Gibcus at 7 (9) in that order. They'll most likely get one of those. At 15 (theyll hope for a slider) and at 26 27 28 theyre probably looking at Bazzo Taylor and Williams.

 

[theGav56]

pick 6 which becomes pick 8 was my thinking, no way would Brisbane swap 16&20 for pick 10. Unfortunately Freo don’t have anything to sweeten the deal except Geelong’s future 4th which is pretty low, or the picks in the 60’s which they’ll be hoping to use on a bid for Benning if it comes.

I think Fremantle should not chase a trade down, but if a club comes looking for a trade up, consider it. We are already well placed. There are excellent targets at our existing picks.

Making predictions based on phantom drafts is flawed. One phantom had WC selecting Johnson and called it a hand in glove selection. Fair enough, but many also assume Fremantle take Erasmus, Port Adelaide take NWM, Geelong take Knevitt etc. All similar hand in glove decisions. But all have a touch of the fairy tale about them as well.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

From an Adelaide perspective, I don't see doing that trade of 4, 2022/3 for 7, 26. I can only see us trading 4 if we get 7 and 15 (maybe with 33 or a future pick coming back).

I also don't see us taking Rachele, we'd be after a mid like Goater, NWM at that pick IMO.

No way Richmond would take Roberts ahead of Goater either.

I don't even see Pick 33 coming back, IMO it'd be Pick 4 for 7 and 15.

Taking individual supporter 'feelings' out of the equation, we already have precedent/examples of the sort of trades it takes to get further up in the draft. They're normally heavily weighted against the team looking to trade higher up. Port Adelaide gave up 2700 points to get Pick 6 in 2018. Hawks giving up Pick 9 & 17 (after bids) equates to 2494 points.

 

[Shadow89]

My completely useless prediction which won't even come close, but is fun to do anyway - for the first 2 rounds

Pick 1: North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
Pick 2: Western Bulldogs (GWS bid) - Sam Darcy
Pick 3: Collingwood (GWS bid) - Nick Daicos
Pick 4: GWS - Finn Callaghan
Pick 5: Gold Coast - Josh Gibcus
Pick 6: Adelaide - Josh Rachele
Pick 7: Hawthorn - Josh Ward
Pick 8: Fremantle - Neil Erasmus
Pick 9: Richmond - Ben Hobbs
Pick 10: Fremantle - Jye Amiss
Pick 11: St Kilda - Josh Sinn
Pick 12: West Coast - Matthew Johnson
Pick 13: Essendon - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Pick 14: Port Adelaide - Arlo Draper
Pick 15: GWS - Mac Andrew
Pick 16: Brisbane - Tyler Sonsie
Pick 17: Richmond - Josh Goater
Pick 18: Sydney - Campbell Chesser
Pick 19: Melbourne - Mitch Knevitt
Pick 20: Brisbane - Darcy Wilmot
Pick 21: Fremantle - Jacob Van-Rooyen
Pick 22: North Melbourne - Tom Brown
Pick 23: Hawthorn - Rhett Bazzo
Pick 24: GWS (Geelong bid) - Josh Fahey
Pick 25: Geelong - Zac Taylor
Pick 26: Hawthorn - Connor Macdonald
Pick 27: Carlton - Mitch Owens (Saints don't match)
Pick 28: Richmond - Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

Pick 29: Richmond - Cooper Murley
Pick 30: Richmond - Jack Williams
Pick 31: West Coast - Blake Howes
Pick 32: Geelong - Leek Alleer
Pick 33: Sydney - Corey Warner
Pick 34: Geelong - Matthew Roberts
Pick 35: Adelaide - Angus Sheldrick
Pick 36: Geelong - Toby Conway
Pick 37: West Coast - Jesse Motlop
Pick 38: Melbourne - Ned Long

Disclaimer re. Owens pick:

In reality I fully expect Saints to match any bid on Owens outside of the first round - I just couldn't be stuffed figuring out all the machinations around them trading future picks in order to make it happen.

 

[WilloTree]

Pick 37: West Coast - Jesse Motlop

That's just mean.

 

[GWS Goose]

My completely useless prediction which won't even come close, but is fun to do anyway - for the first 2 rounds

Pick 1: North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
Pick 2: Western Bulldogs (GWS bid) - Sam Darcy
Pick 3: Collingwood (GWS bid) - Nick Daicos
Pick 4: GWS - Finn Callaghan
Pick 5: Gold Coast - Josh Gibcus
Pick 6: Adelaide - Josh Rachele
Pick 7: Hawthorn - Josh Ward
Pick 8: Fremantle - Neil Erasmus
Pick 9: Richmond - Ben Hobbs
Pick 10: Fremantle - Jye Amiss
Pick 11: St Kilda - Josh Sinn
Pick 12: West Coast - Matthew Johnson
Pick 13: Essendon - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Pick 14: Port Adelaide - Arlo Draper
Pick 15: GWS - Mac Andrew
Pick 16: Brisbane - Tyler Sonsie
Pick 17: Richmond - Josh Goater
Pick 18: Sydney - Campbell Chesser
Pick 19: Melbourne - Mitch Knevitt
Pick 20: Brisbane - Darcy Wilmot
Pick 21: Fremantle - Jacob Van-Rooyen
Pick 22: North Melbourne - Tom Brown
Pick 23: Hawthorn - Rhett Bazzo
Pick 24: GWS (Geelong bid) - Josh Fahey
Pick 25: Geelong - Zac Taylor
Pick 26: Hawthorn - Connor Macdonald
Pick 27: Carlton - Mitch Owens (Saints don't match)
Pick 28: Richmond - Sam Butler
Pick 29: Richmond - Cooper Murley
Pick 30: Richmond - Jack Williams
Pick 31: West Coast - Blake Howes
Pick 32: Geelong - Leek Alleer
Pick 33: Sydney - Corey Warner
Pick 34: Geelong - Matthew Roberts
Pick 35: Adelaide - Angus Sheldrick
Pick 36: Geelong - Toby Conway
Pick 37: West Coast - Jesse Motlop
Pick 38: Melbourne - Ned Long

Disclaimer re. Owens pick:

In reality I fully expect Saints to match any bid on Owens outside of the first round - I just couldn't be stuffed figuring out all the machinations around them trading future picks in order to make it happen.

Pretty good effort

 

[Mat Mann]

My completely useless prediction which won't even come close, but is fun to do anyway - for the first 2 rounds

Pick 1: North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
Pick 2: Western Bulldogs (GWS bid) - Sam Darcy
Pick 3: Collingwood (GWS bid) - Nick Daicos
Pick 4: GWS - Finn Callaghan
Pick 5: Gold Coast - Josh Gibcus
Pick 6: Adelaide - Josh Rachele
Pick 7: Hawthorn - Josh Ward
Pick 8: Fremantle - Neil Erasmus
Pick 9: Richmond - Ben Hobbs
Pick 10: Fremantle - Jye Amiss
Pick 11: St Kilda - Josh Sinn
Pick 12: West Coast - Matthew Johnson
Pick 13: Essendon - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Pick 14: Port Adelaide - Arlo Draper
Pick 15: GWS - Mac Andrew
Pick 16: Brisbane - Tyler Sonsie
Pick 17: Richmond - Josh Goater
Pick 18: Sydney - Campbell Chesser
Pick 19: Melbourne - Mitch Knevitt
Pick 20: Brisbane - Darcy Wilmot
Pick 21: Fremantle - Jacob Van-Rooyen
Pick 22: North Melbourne - Tom Brown
Pick 23: Hawthorn - Rhett Bazzo
Pick 24: GWS (Geelong bid) - Josh Fahey
Pick 25: Geelong - Zac Taylor
Pick 26: Hawthorn - Connor Macdonald
Pick 27: Carlton - Mitch Owens (Saints don't match)
Pick 28: Richmond - Sam Butler
Pick 29: Richmond - Cooper Murley
Pick 30: Richmond - Jack Williams
Pick 31: West Coast - Blake Howes
Pick 32: Geelong - Leek Alleer
Pick 33: Sydney - Corey Warner
Pick 34: Geelong - Matthew Roberts
Pick 35: Adelaide - Angus Sheldrick
Pick 36: Geelong - Toby Conway
Pick 37: West Coast - Jesse Motlop
Pick 38: Melbourne - Ned Long

Disclaimer re. Owens pick:

In reality I fully expect Saints to match any bid on Owens outside of the first round - I just couldn't be stuffed figuring out all the machinations around them trading future picks in order to make it happen.

We'll match, and won't require future trading to do it

 

[Shadow89]

We'll match, and won't require future trading to do it

....Errr how do you think you're gonna do that without future trading involved...?

You have Picks 9, 62 and 66 as it stands. After bids, 62 and 66 should come into around 55 and 59... that's 365 points...

If Owens goes at the 27 I have him at (he could go as early as 22 if bid on outside the first round but his range has been between 20-30 in most phantoms so mine is the median), then you require 703 points. You get a 20% discount, which makes it roughly around 560 points.. you're still nearly 200 points in deficit, and you'll have no picks left for Windhager, even if he gets bid on at Pick 60 (that's another 150 points of deficit, at the least) - this amount of deficit also gets substantially higher if Owens gets bid on in the early 20's, or Windhager goes in the late 30's-40's as projected.

One way or another, you'd have to trade in a future - unless you're prepared to go into deficit and affect your 1st round pick next year - which could drop you by 1 or 2 picks - which is definitely not worth it IMO.

Genuinely curious how you think you'll manage this...

 

[chopflop]

I reckon Freo are into JVR in a big way, but pick 10 is too high for him, any chance Brisbane would swap 16&20 for pick 8?

Fox footy has you after Callaghan at pick 2.

A swap of 6 and 8 for 2 and 13 plus Freo sweetening it up a bit with later swaps makes alot of sense if this is true. Freo get the premium mid of the open draft and a Cerra upgrade and should get first look at JVR and Johnson and every chance amiss or Erasmus end up sliders. Gws might get both the KPPs at 6 and 8

 

[bird_man]

....Errr how do you think you're gonna do that without future trading involved...?

You have Picks 9, 62 and 66 as it stands. After bids, 62 and 66 should come into around 55 and 59... that's 365 points...

If Owens goes at the 27 I have him at (he could go as early as 22 if bid on outside the first round but his range has been between 20-30 in most phantoms so mine is the median), then you require 703 points. You get a 20% discount, which makes it roughly around 560 points.. you're still nearly 200 points in deficit, and you'll have no picks left for Windhager, even if he gets bid on at Pick 60 (that's another 150 points of deficit, at the least) - this amount of deficit also gets substantially higher if Owens gets bid on in the early 20's, or Windhager goes in the late 30's-40's as projected.

One way or another, you'd have to trade in a future - unless you're prepared to go into deficit and affect your 1st round pick next year - which could drop you by 1 or 2 picks - which is definitely not worth it IMO.

Genuinely curious how you think you'll manage this...

We also have 67 which you left out. So that would be very close to enough points by the time they rise.

If we are short it's our 2nd round that goes into deficit next year, not our first.

If Windhager is bidded on after pick 40 we can just use the next pick to take him, which would be 85.