Prediction 2021 Draft Predictions

[Lore]

For those who aren’t quite in a position to do a full phantom draft, but who would still like to have a go at predicting the draft, please use this thread to post your predictions

The current draft order is available in the pinned thread, here:

Resource - 2021 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

In accordance with board rules, phantom drafts which do not fulfil the requirements of a full first round using the current draft order (at time of posting), and preferably with a bit of explanation and willingness to explain your decisions, may also be merged into this thread.

Following the Trade Period, the current order for the first round of the draft is:

1. North Melbourne
2. GWS Giants
3. Gold Coast Suns
4. Adelaide
5. Hawthorn
6. Fremantle
7. Richmond
8. Fremantle
9. St Kilda
10. West Coast Eagles
11. Essendon
12. Port Adelaide
13. GWS Giants
14. Brisbane Lions
15. Richmond
16. Sydney Swans
17. Melbourne
18. Brisbane Lions

 

[Blackhawk42]

(1) North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
(2) Collingwood - Nick Daicos
(3) Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy
(4) GWS - Finn Callaghan
(5) Gold Coast - Josh Gibcus
(6) Adelaide - Josh Rachele
(7) Hawthorn - Josh Ward
(8) Fremantle - Jye Amiss
(9) Richmond - Ben Hobbs
(10) Fremantle - Neil Erasmus
(11) St Kilda - Mac Andrew
(12) West Coast - Matt Johnson
(13) Essendon - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
(14) Port Adelaide - Arlo Draper
(15) GWS - Sam Butler
(16) Brisbane - Josh Sinn
(17) Richmond - Josh Goater
(18) Sydney - Mitch Knevitt
(19) Melbourne - Campbell Chesser
(20) Brisbane - Tyler Sonsie
(21) Fremantle - Jesse Motlop
(22) North Melbourne - Darcy Wilmot
(23) Hawthorn - Zac Taylor
(24) St Kilda - Mitch Owens
(25) Geelong - Jacob Van Rooyen
(26) GWS - Josh Fahey
(27) Carlton - Judson Clarke
(28) Richmond - Matthew Roberts
(29) St Kilda - Marcus Windhager
(30) Richmond - Rhett Bazzo
(31) Richmond - Blake Howes
(32) West Coast - Conner Macdonald
(33) Geelong - Tom Brown
(34) Sydney - Leek Alleer
(35) Geelong - Toby Conway
(36) Adelaide - Cooper Murley
(37) Geelong - Angus Sheldrick
(38) West Coast - Jack Williams
(39) Melbourne - Kai Lohman

I'd love Taylor and Ward, but what happened to our second pick in the 20's?

 

[Asb1735]

I'd love Taylor and Ward, but what happened to our second pick in the 20's?

Sorry, Completely missed the second pick

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Sorry, Completely missed the second pick

Give us Roberts or Clarke at 26 and you're going to get lots of likes.

 

[theGav56]

(1) North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
(2) Collingwood - Nick Daicos
(3) Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy
(4) GWS - Finn Callaghan
(5) Gold Coast - Josh Gibcus
(6) Adelaide - Josh Rachele
(7) Hawthorn - Josh Ward
(8) Fremantle - Jye Amiss
(9) Richmond - Ben Hobbs
(10) Fremantle - Neil Erasmus
(11) St Kilda - Mac Andrew
(12) West Coast - Matt Johnson
(13) Essendon - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
(14) Port Adelaide - Arlo Draper
(15) GWS - Sam Butler
(16) Brisbane - Josh Sinn
(17) Richmond - Josh Goater
(18) Sydney - Mitch Knevitt
(19) Melbourne - Campbell Chesser
(20) Brisbane - Tyler Sonsie
(21) Fremantle - Jesse Motlop
(22) North Melbourne - Darcy Wilmot
(23) Hawthorn - Zac Taylor
(24) St Kilda - Mitch Owens
(25) Geelong - Jacob Van Rooyen
(26) Hawthorn - Tom Brown
(27) GWS - Josh Fahey
(28) Carlton - Judson Clarke
(29) Richmond - Matthew Roberts
(30) St Kilda - Marcus Windhager
(31) Richmond - Rhett Bazzo
(32) Richmond - Blake Howes
(33) West Coast - Conner Macdonald
(34) Geelong - Toby Conway
(35) Sydney - Leek Alleer
(36) Geelong - Angus Sheldrick
(37) Adelaide - Cooper Murley
(38) Geelong - Sam Banks
(39) West Coast - Jack Williams
(40) Melbourne - Kai Lohman

Is that the highest anyone has rated Motlop? Would make the trade haggling with Geelong a complete waste of time if we did that

 

[Significant]

Motlop unable to be matched before 40, so it doesn't matter either way

 

[Asb1735]

Motlop unable to be matched before 40, so it doesn't matter either way

Yep thanks, wasn't 100% sure

 

[theGav56]

Motlop unable to be matched before 40, so it doesn't matter either way

Sure it matters. That pick has high trade value along the lines of a pick 25/30 plus a f2nd. That is a high price for Motlop. I'm pretty confident that pick does not happen.

 

[Asb1735]

Sure it matters. That pick has high trade value along the lines of a pick 25/30 plus a f2nd. That is a high price for Motlop. I'm pretty confident that pick does not happen.

You will Probably do a trade, I just couldn't be bothered doing trades. I also thought a second round talent from Perth would be better then a player around the same level, in the same position, from a different state. And seeing as supposably the talent is so even this year, you might reach for the player a little. That was even before I knew he was your NGA player that you have invested heaps of time into.

But it is understandable that you might think there are better options.

 

[pK75]

Is that the highest anyone has rated Motlop? Would make the trade haggling with Geelong a complete waste of time if we did that

Freo will not pick Motlop, they’ll hope he slides past pick 40 and get him with our pick in the 60s

 

[ArdentEagle]

Freo will not pick Motlop, they’ll hope he slides past pick 40 and get him with our pick in the 60s

No chance I think.

 

[theGav56]

You will Probably do a trade, I just couldn't be bothered doing trades. I also thought a second round talent from Perth would be better then a player around the same level, in the same position, from a different state. And seeing as supposably the talent is so even this year, you might reach for the player a little. That was even before I knew he was your NGA player that you have invested heaps of time into.

But it is understandable that you might think there are better options.

Yeah I noticed that for us, WC, Port and Adelaide you have all predominantly taking home grown talent. Very few exceptions. To me it doesn't reflect what those clubs don't historically and ends up with clubs reaching. In the end it damages your phantom draft as a result.

 

[Paracleet]

Yeah I noticed that for us, WC, Port and Adelaide you have all predominantly taking home grown talent. Very few exceptions. To me it doesn't reflect what those clubs don't historically and ends up with clubs reaching. In the end it damages your phantom draft as a result.

We have taken 1 local player (ex academy) with a top ten pick since 2009.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

We have taken 1 local player (ex academy) with a top ten pick since 2009.

Yes, and Adam Cerra is a very recent reminder of why that can be a risky strategy. Amiss and Erasmus are worthy top 10 picks and wouldn't be reaches.

 

[Paracleet]

Yes, and Adam Cerra is a very recent reminder of why that can be a risky strategy. Amiss and Erasmus are worthy top 10 picks and wouldn't be reaches.

Nope. It was the correct decision at the time.
If it wasn't he'd have gone back for the third rounder without the pick 6.

The chances we rate two local players as clearly best available with picks that high is close to 0.

 

[Paracleet]

And we certainly aren't going to let the possibility of them leaving (clear flags Wingard style notwithstanding) effect our drafting choices.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Nope. It was the correct decision at the time.

As opposed to taking a player from their own backyard, who is now arguably the best young KPF in the league? In a position that Fremantle have been weak in ever since Pav retired, and traded away a top 10 pick the next year to try and fix?

If it wasn't he'd have gone back for the third rounder without the pick 6.

That he's leaving at all makes it a less than ideal decision. A player's propensity to stay in Perth has to be factored into recruitment, and Fremantle predicted wrong on that one. Cerra is not the only good player who went in that draft.

The chances we rate two local players as clearly best available with picks that high is close to 0.

So which one of Erasmus and Amiss are you suggesting isn't worth the selection on a best available basis? Or is it both?

 

[WilloTree]

(1) North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
(2) Collingwood - Nick Daicos
(3) Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy
(4) GWS - Finn Callaghan
(5) Gold Coast - Josh Gibcus
(6) Adelaide - Josh Rachele
(7) Hawthorn - Josh Ward
(8) Fremantle - Jye Amiss
(9) Richmond - Ben Hobbs
(10) Fremantle - Neil Erasmus
(11) St Kilda - Mac Andrew
(12) West Coast - Matt Johnson
(13) Essendon - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
(14) Port Adelaide - Arlo Draper
(15) GWS - Sam Butler
(16) Brisbane - Josh Sinn
(17) Richmond - Josh Goater
(18) Sydney - Mitch Knevitt
(19) Melbourne - Campbell Chesser
(20) Brisbane - Tyler Sonsie
(21) Fremantle - Jesse Motlop
(22) North Melbourne - Darcy Wilmot
(23) Hawthorn - Zac Taylor
(24) St Kilda - Mitch Owens
(25) Geelong - Jacob Van Rooyen
(26) GWS - Josh Fahey
(27) Hawthorn - Judson Clarke
(28) Carlton - Tom Brown
(29) Richmond - Matthew Roberts
(30) St Kilda - Marcus Windhager
(31) Richmond - Rhett Bazzo
(32) Richmond - Blake Howes
(33) West Coast - Conner MacDonald
(34) Geelong - Toby Conway
(35) Sydney - Leek Alleer
(36) Geelong - Angus Sheldrick
(37) Adelaide - Cooper Murley
(38) Geelong - Sam Banks
(39) West Coast - Jack Williams
(40) Melbourne - Kai Lohman

Good effort. Some nice picks in there. From a Freo perspective, IMHO the Erasmus/Amiss picks seem like the obvious way to go.

Looking at your second round, there isn't a player there who I wouldn't prefer over Motlop. eg - if Freo went Motop over JVR someone would legit burn down Cockburn.

 

[theGav56]

As opposed to taking a player from their own backyard, who is now arguably the best young KPF in the league? In a position that Fremantle have been weak in ever since Pav retired, and traded away a top 10 pick the next year to try and fix?


That he's leaving at all makes it a less than ideal decision. A player's propensity to stay in Perth has to be factored into recruitment, and Fremantle predicted wrong on that one. Cerra is not the only good player who went in that draft.


So which one of Erasmus and Amiss are you suggesting isn't worth the selection on a best available basis? Or is it both?

You are jumping the tracks on this discussion. If Erasmus and Amiss are who the club thinks are best available they will do it. If they think they are best available local, they won't.

This discussion is actually about Motlop at 21, and I think the same rules apply. And I don't think he will be best available there.

And again, this particular Phantom does prioritise local boys for all of Fremantle, WC, Port and Adelaide. That means those clubs don't seem to be prioritising best available.

 

[WilloTree]

It's bloody tough to guess with pick swaps but..

1. North Melbourne - Horne Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy
4. Hawthorn - Callaghan (Trade up with GWS)
5. Gold Coast Suns - Gibcus
6. Adelaide - Erasmus
7. GWS Giants - Andrew (Trade down with Hawthorn)
8. Fremantle - Rachele
9. Richmond - Hobbs
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Ward
12. West Coast Eagles - Johnson
13. Essendon - Goater
14. Port Adelaide - Wanganeen-Milera
15. GWS Giants - Sonsie
16. Brisbane Lions - Sinn
17. Richmond - Van Rooyen
18. Sydney Swans - Knevitt
19. Melbourne - Chesser
20. Brisbane Lions - Butler

Those last few are difficult to pick, makes me really worried about Mitch Owens

I think Freo need to take at least one genuine mid with one of those top picks to replace Cerra.

If they miss on Erasmus, I would expect they pick Johnson and get a tall at 21.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

You are jumping the tracks on this discussion. If Erasmus and Amiss are who the club thinks are best available they will do it. If they think they are best available local, they won't.

Well of course. I'm asking why that poster believes Erasmus or Amiss are not worthy of picks 6 and 8.

This discussion is actually about Motlop at 21, and I think the same rules apply.

Except they specifically mentioned top ten picks.

And I don't think he will be best available there.

I agree.

And again, this particular Phantom does prioritise local boys for all of Fremantle, WC, Port and Adelaide. That means those clubs don't seem to be prioritising best available.

Rachele is an SA local? Erasmus, Amiss and Johnson aren't best available? I think a good case can be made for Draper and Murley as being among the best available at their spots also.

 

[mpal6]

1. Collingwood (North Bid) - Nick Daicos
2. North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
3. Western Bulldogs (GWS or GC bid) - Sam Darcy
4. Gold Coast (Trade up) - Finn Callaghan
5. GWS Giants - Josh Rachele
6. Adelaide - Josh Gibcus
7. Hawthorn - Josh Ward
8. Fremantle - Jye Amiss
9. Richmond - Ben Hobbs
10. Fremantle - Neil Erasmus
11. St Kilda - Josh Goater
12. West Coast Eagles - Matthew Johnson
13. Essendon - Mac Andrew
14. Port Adelaide - Nasia Wanganeen-Milera
15. GWS Giants - Jacob Van Rooyen
16. Brisbane Lions - Josh Sinn
17. Richmond - Darcy Wilmot
18. Sydney Swans - Campbell Chesser
19. Melbourne - Sam Butler
    Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]
20. Brisbane Lions - Zac Taylor

 

[Superkoops]

Is that the highest anyone has rated Motlop? Would make the trade haggling with Geelong a complete waste of time if we did that

No way Freo select Motlop at 21. We’ll run the gauntlet and see if he makes it to 41, or alternatively trade down for two picks (using the coveted 19) between 28 and 36 and select with one of those. There are a few academy (Owens, Windhager, Fahey) and F/s (Burgoyne) selections that could all be bid on between 25-40 that could push Motlop to the 35-45 range.

 

[La Dispute]

No way Freo select Motlop at 21. We’ll run the gauntlet and see if he makes it to 41, or alternatively trade down for two picks (using the coveted 19) between 28 and 36 and select with one of those. There are a few academy (Owens, Windhager, Fahey) and F/s (Burgoyne) selections that could all be bid on between 25-40 that could push Motlop to the 35-45 range.

I can see plenty of clubs wanting to grab Motlop in the 20-30 range, maybe earlier.

His exact type is in vogue right now and teams want to replicate that. He’s also got the pedigree and that tends to elevate players who are probably closer to mid-range selections into first round picks. Think Kosi Pickett, Daniel Rioli.

I hope Carlton has a crack at 25 tbh.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

1. Collingwood (North Bid) - Nick Daicos
2. North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
3. Western Bulldogs (GWS or GC bid) - Sam Darcy
4. Gold Coast (Trade up) - Finn Callaghan
5. GWS Giants - Josh Rachele

Having the Giants pass on both Andrew and Gibcus for Rachele is... certainly unique. I'll leave it to the GWS fans to decide if that suits their list or not though.

What about Zac Taylor makes him a good fit for the Lions?

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Not really.

Most of our mids are bigger types or not really known for their endurance.

He'd also add a bit of class to the midfield which is something we lack.

Can't see him making it that far any way, but if we passed on him there'd likely be a riot.

I would have thought Goater, Andrew and Erasmus would be the ones for you. If you go mid you want tall marking options that can push forward and Andrew has unicorn potential to add a nice point of difference to a same-ish list.