Prediction 2021 Draft Predictions

[Lore]

For those who aren’t quite in a position to do a full phantom draft, but who would still like to have a go at predicting the draft, please use this thread to post your predictions

The current draft order is available in the pinned thread, here:

Resource - 2021 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

In accordance with board rules, phantom drafts which do not fulfil the requirements of a full first round using the current draft order (at time of posting), and preferably with a bit of explanation and willingness to explain your decisions, may also be merged into this thread.

Following the Trade Period, the current order for the first round of the draft is:

1. North Melbourne
2. GWS Giants
3. Gold Coast Suns
4. Adelaide
5. Hawthorn
6. Fremantle
7. Richmond
8. Fremantle
9. St Kilda
10. West Coast Eagles
11. Essendon
12. Port Adelaide
13. GWS Giants
14. Brisbane Lions
15. Richmond
16. Sydney Swans
17. Melbourne
18. Brisbane Lions

 

[GoTigers2015]

First two rounds only.

1. North Melbourne - Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos (Bid Matched)
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy (Bid Matched)
4. GWS - Callaghan
5. Gold Coast - Andrew
6. Adelaide - Hobbs
7. Hawthorn - Ward
8. Fremantle - Erasmus
9. Richmond - Rachele
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Sinn
12. West Coast - Johnson
13. Essendon - Goater
14. Port Adelaide - Wangeneen-Milera
15. GWS - Gibcus
16. Brisbane - Van Rooyen
17. Richmond - Butler
18. Sydney - Wilmot
19. Melbourne - Sonsie
20. Brisbane - Taylor
21. Fremantle - Chesser

22. North Melbourne - Draper
23. Hawthorn - Howes
24. Geelong - Motlop
25. St Kilda - Owens (Bid Matched)
26. Hawthorn - Brown
27. Carlton - Knevitt
28. GWS - Fahey (Bid Matched)
29. Richmond - Roberts
30. Richmond - Clarke
31. Richmond - Bazzo
32. West Coast - Williams
33. Geelong - Conway
34. Sydney - MacDonald
35. Geelong - Sheldrick
36. Adelaide - Murley
37. Geelong - Alleer

Very savage with Richmond drafting 3 small forwards. We need mids and KPPs

 

[briztoon]

First two rounds only.

1. North Melbourne - Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos (Bid Matched)
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy (Bid Matched)
4. GWS - Callaghan
5. Gold Coast - Andrew
6. Adelaide - Hobbs
7. Hawthorn - Ward
8. Fremantle - Erasmus
9. Richmond - Rachele
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Sinn
12. West Coast - Johnson
13. Essendon - Goater
14. Port Adelaide - Wangeneen-Milera
15. GWS - Gibcus
16. Brisbane - Van Rooyen
17. Richmond - Butler
18. Sydney - Wilmot
19. Melbourne - Sonsie
20. Brisbane - Taylor
21. Fremantle - Chesser

22. North Melbourne - Draper
23. Hawthorn - Howes
24. Geelong - Motlop
25. St Kilda - Owens (Bid Matched)
26. Hawthorn - Brown
27. Carlton - Knevitt
28. GWS - Fahey (Bid Matched)
29. Richmond - Roberts
30. Richmond - Clarke
31. Richmond - Bazzo
32. West Coast - Williams
33. Geelong - Conway
34. Sydney - MacDonald
35. Geelong - Sheldrick
36. Adelaide - Murley
37. Geelong - Alleer

I believe Brisbane would take Chesser ahead Taylor. Our recruiting manager on Road to the Draft was pretty clear about needing outside run from midfield and/or defence, and the need to add to our KPP stocks.

So JVR and Chesser look like best available talent that fit our needs.

 

[bird_man]

I would have thought Goater, Andrew and Erasmus would be the ones for you. If you go mid you want tall marking options that can push forward and Andrew has unicorn potential to add a nice point of difference to a same-ish list.

Andrew and Erasmus were both gone in that scenario so it wouldn't matter.

Ward looks a better mid than Goater so I'd be disappointed if we reached for him just because he was taller.

 

[blaisee]

I predict that 2021 draft picks are going to be much higher valued than 2022 draft picks

2022 draft may be the worst draft ever

 

[WeedsMullet84]

So Hawks actually didn’t pick anyone, which makes every selection after them pointless.

Crows don't have limited KPD depth

 

[GWS Goose]

I predict that 2021 draft picks are going to be much higher valued than 2022 draft picks

2022 draft may be the worst draft ever

Is this a genuine assessment.

I have no clue at this early stage on the strength of the draft, but have read a few people say it is a strong draft.

 

[theGav56]

Is this a genuine assessment.

I have no clue at this early stage on the strength of the draft, but have read a few people say it is a strong draft.

I'm definitely interested in the talls available next year. Taking Andrew in the top 10 this year when he seems to need so much development compared to trading that pick into 2022 for a player more ready to play doesn't seem unreasonable.

Similar with Amiss who many predict as the only viable top 10 KPF. That pick range in 2022 reveals a variety of tall options.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I predict our future first is on offer for a top 10 pick this year, but I can’t see any clubs other than Freo being interested, and only because they may feel like trading out Pick 8(10) for our first would perhaps give them a top 5 pick in 2022.

 

[Mutineer]

Crows don't have limited KPD depth

We don't?

Apart from Jordan Butts we have the unproven at AFL level Fischer McAsey neither of whom are overly athletic or agile, we have Billy Frampton a failed forward now being tested down back and showing some promise in that role at SANFL level. At this point in time the rookie listed Nick Murray looks the best of a pretty average lot.

On paper that looks pretty limited unless McAsey and Borlase come on in leaps and bounds and soon.

 

[blaisee]

Is this a genuine assessment.

I have no clue at this early stage on the strength of the draft, but have read a few people say it is a strong draft.

Yes it is a genuine assessment

NO U16 development, bottom agers barely played

There are some promising talls, but I reckon 2021 draft picks > 2022 draft picks

 

[BORIS332]

First two rounds only.

1. North Melbourne - Horne-Francis
2. Collingwood - Daicos (Bid Matched)
3. Western Bulldogs - Darcy (Bid Matched)
4. GWS - Callaghan
5. Gold Coast - Andrew
6. Adelaide - Hobbs
7. Hawthorn - Ward
8. Fremantle - Erasmus
9. Richmond - Rachele
10. Fremantle - Amiss
11. St Kilda - Sinn
12. West Coast - Johnson
13. Essendon - Goater
14. Port Adelaide - Wangeneen-Milera
15. GWS - Gibcus
16. Brisbane - Van Rooyen
17. Richmond - Butler
18. Sydney - Wilmot
19. Melbourne - Sonsie
20. Brisbane - Taylor
21. Fremantle - Chesser

22. North Melbourne - Draper
23. Hawthorn - Howes
24. Geelong - Motlop
25. St Kilda - Owens (Bid Matched)
26. Hawthorn - Brown
27. Carlton - Knevitt
28. GWS - Fahey (Bid Matched)
29. Richmond - Roberts
30. Richmond - Clarke
31. Richmond - Bazzo
32. West Coast - Williams
33. Geelong - Conway
34. Sydney - MacDonald
35. Geelong - Sheldrick
36. Adelaide - Murley
37. Geelong - Alleer

If we took Motlop and Conway with our first two picks there'd be tears from a lot of Cats supporters.

 

[briztoon]

Yes it is a genuine assessment

NO U16 development, bottom agers barely played

There are some promising talls, but I reckon 2021 draft picks > 2022 draft picks

That’s not the general consensus of the actual draft watchers here. Many have said it looks like a stronger first round next year.

There was an U17 Championships in early June for the division 1 states. And the QLD academies played a series of games, for recruiters to get a look at the talent available.

 

[theGav56]

If we took Motlop and Conway with our first two picks there'd be tears from a lot of Cats supporters.

Who would you take in this draft scenario?

 

[BORIS332]

Who would you take in this draft scenario?

In that particular scenario given who's left on the board, and going by the noise on the Geelong board, I think the supporters would want Brown and MacDonald at those first two picks. Wells says we're targeting MIDs at this draft, take out of that what you will.

Personally, I would probably take Knevitt with our first (22 or 24 after bids) even though I've been critical of him. With our picks in the 30s I'd just take best available at each pick - looking at the above list I'd say our p30 I'd use on Alleer/Butler.

 

[Big_Newon]

I think Hawks will trade pick 5 (7) and a future third to Freo for 10 (12) and 19 (21). This will leave them with picks 10,19,21,24. 4 top 25 picks is a good haul and freo still get probably Erasmus and maybe Hobbs, Rachele or Ward.

 

[theGav56]

I think Hawks will trade pick 5 (7) and a future third to Freo for 10 (12) and 19 (21).

We don't have 10(12), We have 8(10).

Why would we be interested in that trade? Who would we be valuing to pay that price for?

 

[pK75]

I think Hawks will trade pick 5 (7) and a future third to Freo for 10 (12) and 19 (21). This will leave them with picks 10,19,21,24. 4 top 25 picks is a good haul and freo still get probably Erasmus and maybe Hobbs, Rachele or Ward.

I think this is a dreaming Hawk fan, Freo more likely to trade 6(8) to Brisbane for 14(16) and 18(20) but that would only happen if Brisbane really like whoever available at 6(8).

 

[Blackhawk42]

I think Hawks will trade pick 5 (7) and a future third to Freo for 10 (12) and 19 (21). This will leave them with picks 10,19,21,24. 4 top 25 picks is a good haul and freo still get probably Erasmus and maybe Hobbs, Rachele or Ward.

I don't think we'll end up trading any of our picks unless somebody we love slides on draft night.

Then we'll come in hot at Brisbane or Richmond and offer 21 and 24 for one of their selections in the teens.

For example let's say we select Josh Ward but rate one of Rachelle, Hobbs, Erasmus or Andrew equally as high. If it gets to pick 14 and any of those boys are still on the board i'd say we'll look to move up.

If players seem to go where expected I think we'll just take our chances with the 3 selections inside 25.

 

[TylerDurden]

We don't have 10(12), We have 8(10).

Why would we be interested in that trade? Who would we be valuing to pay that price for?

Erasmus.

 

[Mutineer]

In that particular scenario given who's left on the board, and going by the noise on the Geelong board, I think the supporters would want Brown and MacDonald at those first two picks. Wells says we're targeting MIDs at this draft, take out of that what you will.

Personally, I would probably take Knevitt with our first (22 or 24 after bids) even though I've been critical of him. With our picks in the 30s I'd just take best available at each pick - looking at the above list I'd say our p30 I'd use on Alleer/Butler.

Butler I doubt will still be on the board at #30.

I reckon Sam Breuer might be on your blokes radar given his family ties to the Cats (Shayne Breuer), looked impressive late in the season when switched into the midfield after proving to be a very decent running back for the Rebels.

 

[Swiggy]

I think Hawks will trade pick 5 (7) and a future third to Freo for 10 (12) and 19 (21). This will leave them with picks 10,19,21,24. 4 top 25 picks is a good haul and freo still get probably Erasmus and maybe Hobbs, Rachele or Ward.

So freo trade up 3 sports and give a 19 for a future 3rd…. No chance

 

[theGav56]

Erasmus.

The club likely does rate Erasmus, so it could be possible. But when you look through the likely options and see names like Ward, Hobbs, Rachele, Andrew, Amiss and Johnson I'm doubting they will have such a premium on Erasmus.

 

[WilloTree]

I think Hawks will trade pick 5 (7) and a future third to Freo for 10 (12) and 19 (21). This will leave them with picks 10,19,21,24. 4 top 25 picks is a good haul and freo still get probably Erasmus and maybe Hobbs, Rachele or Ward.

Great deal for Hawks.

 

[Mikevk123]

1. North Melbourne- Jason Horne-Francis
2. Western Bulldogs- Sam Darcy
3. Collingwood- Nick Daicos
4. Josh Rachele- GWS
5. Mac Andrew- Gold Coast
6. Finn Callaghan- Adelaide
7. Josh Ward- Hawthorn
8. Neil Erasmus- Fremantle
9. Ben Hobbs- Richmond
10. Jye Amiss- Fremantle
11. Josh Gibcus- St Kilda
12. Matthew Johnson- West Coast
13. Josh Goater- Essendon
14. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera Port Adelaide
15. Josh Sinn- GWS
16. Jacob Van Rooyen- Brisbane
17. Tyler Sonsie- Richmond
18. Arlo Draper- Sydney
19. Zac Taylor- Melbourne
20. Campbell Chesser- Brisbane
21. Jack Williams- Fremantle
22. Darcy Wilmot- North Melbourne
23. Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

- Hawthorn
24. Matthew Roberts- Geelong
25. Blake Howles- Hawthorn
26. Jesse Motlop- Carlton
27. Marcus Windhager- St Kilda
28. Rhett Bazzo- Richmond
29. Judson Clark- Richmond
30- Connor McDonald- Richmond
31- Mitchito Owens- St Kilda
32- Angus Sheldrick- West Coast
33- Mitch Knevitt- Geelong
34- Ned Long-Sydney
35- Tom Brown - Geelong
36- Cooper Murley- Adelaide
37- Toby Conway- Geelong
38- Corey Warner- West Coast
39- Kai Lohmann- Melbourne
40- Leek Alleer- Sydney
41- Sam Banks- Brisbane
42- Charlie Dean- North Melbourne
43- Paul Curtis- Western Bulldogs
44- Lachlan Rankin-North Melbourne
45- Hugh Jackson-Collingwood
46- Brady Hough- Melbourne
47- Charlie Molan- Geelong
48- Jake Soligo- Essendon
49- James Tunstill- Western Bulldogs
50- Lukas Cooke- Collingwood
51- Hugo Stagg- Essendon
52- Tyreece Leui- Melbourne
53- Kade Dittmar- Collingwood

 

[billnats]

1. North Melbourne- Jason Horne-Francis
2. Western Bulldogs- Sam Darcy
3. Collingwood- Nick Daicos
4. Josh Rachele- GWS
5. Mac Andrew- Gold Coast
6. Finn Callaghan- Adelaide
7. Josh Ward- Hawthorn
8. Neil Erasmus- Fremantle
9. Ben Hobbs- Richmond
10. Jye Amiss- Fremantle
11. Josh Gibcus- St Kilda
12. Matthew Johnson- West Coast
13. Josh Goater- Essendon
14. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera Port Adelaide
15. Josh Sinn- GWS
16. Jacob Van Rooyen- Brisbane
17. Tyler Sonsie- Richmond
18. Arlo Draper- Sydney
19. Zac Taylor- Melbourne
20. Campbell Chesser- Brisbane
21. Jack Williams- Fremantle
22. Darcy Wilmot- North Melbourne
23. Sam Butler- Hawthorn
24. Matthew Roberts- Geelong
25. Blake Howles- Hawthorn
26. Jesse Motlop- Carlton
27. Marcus Windhager- St Kilda
28. Rhett Bazzo- Richmond
29. Judson Clark- Richmond
30- Connor McDonald- Richmond
31- Mitchito Owens- St Kilda
32- Angus Sheldrick- West Coast
33- Mitch Knevitt- Geelong
34- Ned Long-Sydney
35- Tom Brown - Geelong
36- Cooper Murley- Adelaide
37- Toby Conway- Geelong
38- Corey Warner- West Coast
39- Kai Lohmann- Melbourne
40- Leek Alleer- Sydney
41- Sam Banks- Brisbane
42- Charlie Dean- North Melbourne
43- Paul Curtis- Western Bulldogs
44- Lachlan Rankin-North Melbourne
45- Hugh Jackson-Collingwood
46- Brady Hough- Melbourne
47- Charlie Molan- Geelong
48- Jake Soligo- Essendon
49- James Tunstill- Western Bulldogs
50- Lukas Cooke- Collingwood
51- Hugo Stagg- Essendon
52- Tyreece Leui- Melbourne
53- Kade Dittmar- Collingwood

Surely WB won’t have 43 in this scenario