Analysis 2021 draft thread

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irel

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A little hard to judge the club on late pick fails.
Other than Ely the rest are late picks during a period where the club decided to trade for needs.
Who else did we get in during that period?
Neale, Lyons, McCarthy, Daniher, Charlie the year before, Cocky who really could be anything, Birchall, Adams and the best one of the lot in my eyes Hodge.
During the period you speak of, it has been a definite pass.
The draft is not everything.
Yes, I am aware the draft is not everything. I am enjoying our ascension to contenders the last three years. I too think our player trading has been successful, however this is the Draft Thread and the general consciences is it takes three years before we can make some sort of judgement on the current drafting team in relation to their drafting strategies and selections. So going back three years as of current status IMO 2018 draft is a fail.

Actually I believe the judgement on Conole is if he got it correct with his top picks. Generally there is only one round 1 pick and it is critical that that pick is successful. In 2018 we had four late picks. One is bound to make some impact so judging recruiters on late pick success means they failed the critical test..
 

spotthedog1

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On the bolded part, that’s not quite true.

We were expecting it, as it was rumoured before we made the trade that Collingwood might bid on Coleman. And then we traded right into the range where many draft watchers rated him.

There was palpable relief on here when Collingwood made their two first round picks, without bidding on Coleman.

Thought we’d escaped.

But the Collingwood traded back in, as they had openly discussed they were wanting to do.
Yep. And it's tough to know without knowing all the inner machinations. But if we were expecting it, then effectively, we saw a trap coming and still fell for it. I don't recall another team having a first round pick used as part of the matching process for a long time. We've seen some really shrewd trading from other clubs with [bid > trade out > match > trade back in] scenarios, or trading up to get ahead of the bid (getting a first round pick + Coleman), or trading back behind the bid and accruing points/future picks.

I actually think our player selection has been pretty decent in the last few years. We've ended up with some decent players from speccy picks. But our overall strategy has generally been lacking. So it's not surprising that when we take a player no one has heard of in the first round, people assume our positioning is wrong again.
 

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spotthedog1

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All these horrible trades and draft picks/strategies..keep it going Lions because I have really enjoyed playing finals the last 3 years
Very poor argument. Poor draft strategies hurt us in 5-10 years time. No one is saying a good draft pick will be the difference in the very next season.
Seems like a straw man to me. I don’t think anyone is saying we definitely got it right. They are just saying that those who claimed we could have traded back and got Lohmann at pick 41 were pretty much objectively wrong.
Might be wrong, but I don't recall anyone saying we'd be able to pick him up at 41. A few, myself included, suggested that if we liked a bolter (and all of the reporting on the night was that Lohmann was a bolter - Cal Twomey basically had to look at his notes), then surely we should've traded back a few spots. I think I suggested a late 20s pick, maybe package 20+41 for two of the Richmond ones. With more info, yeah, we probably wouldn't have got away with that, so fair enough, but given the media reporting, it wasn't an unreasonable suggestion...
 

Quigley

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A little hard to judge the club on late pick fails.
Other than Ely the rest are late picks during a period where the club decided to trade for needs.
Who else did we get in during that period?
Neale, Lyons, McCarthy, Daniher, Charlie the year before, Cocky who really could be anything, Birchall, Adams and the best one of the lot in my eyes Hodge.
During the period you speak of, it has been a definite pass.
The draft is not everything.

Hitting on the late picks is often the thing that gets a team right to the top of the tree and keeps them their when they get there. The Academy is a big advantage for us with later picks but lately we have not really taken advantage of that.
 

twhowler

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Let's go back to 2018 then and make a judgement on our drafting:
121Ely Smith - Trending towards de-listment
236Tom Berry - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
240Tom Joyce - Gone
242Connor McFadyen - Trending towards de-listment (Last chance saloon in 2022)
355Noah Answerth - Fringe 23

Looking at above my judgement so far abysmal fail.
Ely Smyth, Tom Berry, McFadyen and Answerth have 2022 to redeem this draft.
Come back this time next year to make a more definitive judgement.
Looking at recent drafts, there seems to usually be a pretty good top 30, and it drops off after that. It can vary year to year.

For that reason the big disappointment in this draft is Ely Smith. He was a reach nobody was interested in, and is yet to play a game. One year left but yes at this stage poor.

Tom Berry at 36 - yes it looks like last chance saloon. But he's about what you get at 36. Some chance of success. He has not been a complete dud.

Tom Joyce - gone but pick 40.

McFadyen - a bit unlucky given did a knee. Always makes it harder

Answerth - see what happens with form and injury. but at pick 55 you would take him every day of the week

So not a great draft

But we didn't have a flush hand

If we get the Ely pick right it would have been on balance a good draft. We didn't so it wasn't.
 

dlanod

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The other consideration that you need to make some calls on who else could have drafted? Were there others after that would have been better options?
That is not my call because I would be drafting with hindsight and will have 100% success. :)

It's also worth limiting yourself to the next five picks or so in this exercise. You can always find a winner at some later pick, e.g. Rockliff going in the PSD, but if no one else rated them either is it really a specific failure of our team?
 

Lions1024

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If we get the Ely pick right it would have been on balance a good draft. We didn't so it wasn't.

Who would you pick? I don’t think anyone selected after Ely would be best 22 in our team and would probably be in the same situation as Ely pl reserves for the past couple of years.

Best option is probably Nick Hind. But even he got delisted before showing some good form with Essendon.
 

KissKiss

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Tom Sparrow was the only other real highlight from my quick glance
 

bungalow_bill

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Dev Robertson is looking like an astute pick up for our 2019 first rounder. Wilmot and Lohmann also look the goods. Most likely Ely is our only major first round misstep since Schache in 2015.

Even then Ely is not a write off as yet
 

Quigley

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Rayner is an interesting one for me in the sense that he has underperformed his draft position by a long way to date. He might still come good but it is hard to argue that virtually everyone would have rightly expected more from a number 1 pick. On the flip side, and from the outside looking in, I think he has had an enormous cultural influence on the club. He has bound the younger group and the place seems like a fun place to play. We are no longer losing guys we wanted to keep but are rather a destination club. That sort of player is invaluable to a group and especially one like the Lions. So whilst on paper he is looking like a poor pick I do think that is only half the story and I am not willing to classify it as such.
 

Nunez

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Rayner is an interesting one for me in the sense that he has underperformed his draft position by a long way to date. He might still come good but it is hard to argue that virtually everyone would have rightly expected more from a number 1 pick. On the flip side, and from the outside looking in, I think he has had an enormous cultural influence on the club. He has bound the younger group and the place seems like a fun place to play. We are no longer losing guys we wanted to keep but are rather a destination club. That sort of player is invaluable to a group and especially one like the Lions. So whilst on paper he is looking like a poor pick I do think that is only half the story and I am not willing to classify it as such.

He's the type of pick that'll best be judged when he hits his prime. He was never going to peak early. I think we'll get a really good idea of the type of player Can will be this year.
 

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briztoon

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Conole has been with us since 2011.

Ambroglio since 2017.

Seems relatively logical to judge drafting and trading from those dates respectively.
I thought Conole started here as a junior recruiter, under the previous head recruiter. Maybe 2013 was his first year as boss??

However, my thinking was that Conole would have received his current instructions from Noble, about the type of players to recruit.
 

briztoon

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Looking at recent drafts, there seems to usually be a pretty good top 30, and it drops off after that. It can vary year to year.

For that reason the big disappointment in this draft is Ely Smith. He was a reach nobody was interested in, and is yet to play a game. One year left but yes at this stage poor.

Tom Berry at 36 - yes it looks like last chance saloon. But he's about what you get at 36. Some chance of success. He has not been a complete dud.

Tom Joyce - gone but pick 40.

McFadyen - a bit unlucky given did a knee. Always makes it harder

Answerth - see what happens with form and injury. but at pick 55 you would take him every day of the week

So not a great draft

But we didn't have a flush hand

If we get the Ely pick right it would have been on balance a good draft. We didn't so it wasn't.
Every year there’s talk about the comparative strength of a draft class, based on their U16 Championships.

I know for the 2018 draft, it was considered to have a very deep elite top end, but no depth beyond the late first round.

This year was supposed to be be a very strong top end, and very good depth. But Covid ruined their last two years, and a lot of top Vic prospects being injured, meant it was hard to judge the top end talent.

We did have an U17 Championship last year, and the general consensus is that it’s got a good top depth, good depth through the first round, but not the overall depth of this years group.
 

briztoon

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Rayner is an interesting one for me in the sense that he has underperformed his draft position by a long way to date. He might still come good but it is hard to argue that virtually everyone would have rightly expected more from a number 1 pick. On the flip side, and from the outside looking in, I think he has had an enormous cultural influence on the club. He has bound the younger group and the place seems like a fun place to play. We are no longer losing guys we wanted to keep but are rather a destination club. That sort of player is invaluable to a group and especially one like the Lions. So whilst on paper he is looking like a poor pick I do think that is only half the story and I am not willing to classify it as such.
Pretty much was the consensus number 1 player that year.

Not really a great draft from the early players selected.

We picked the wrong year to bottom out.
 

The Flying Belgian

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Rayner is an interesting one for me in the sense that he has underperformed his draft position by a long way to date. He might still come good but it is hard to argue that virtually everyone would have rightly expected more from a number 1 pick. On the flip side, and from the outside looking in, I think he has had an enormous cultural influence on the club. He has bound the younger group and the place seems like a fun place to play. We are no longer losing guys we wanted to keep but are rather a destination club. That sort of player is invaluable to a group and especially one like the Lions. So whilst on paper he is looking like a poor pick I do think that is only half the story and I am not willing to classify it as such.

If I can ask, who would you have picked had you been making the pick?

I was big on Brayshaw, but mainly because of the low floor. None of the other guys in the top 10 outside Naughton and possibly Cerra have really been much to write home about. In hindsight and with four years to judge, 2017 looks to be a particularly weak draft.
 

M Malice

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Cam Rayner only recently turned 22, I have enormous confidence that injury permitting he is going to have a great career.

It was common knowledge pre his drafting that he had an enormous amount of work to do on his endurance but his skill level was never doubted. The penny dropped for Cam during the 2021 preseason and he threw himself into working on his endurance, cruelly injury prevented us seeing the results of that hard work. The start of Cam's peak years are still a couple of seasons away, it's a big call but I wouldn't be surprised if Cam is near to Petracca/Dusty levels as an explosive midfielder/fwd when in his prime ie. 2024 onwards... bookmark it.:D
 

Quigley

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If I can ask, who would you have picked had you been making the pick?

I was big on Brayshaw, but mainly because of the low floor. None of the other guys in the top 10 outside Naughton and possibly Cerra have really been much to write home about. In hindsight and with four years to judge, 2017 looks to be a particularly weak draft.

I didn't have a massive issue with the pick at the time but personally I wanted LDU.
 

dlanod

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I thought Conole started here as a junior recruiter, under the previous head recruiter. Maybe 2013 was his first year as boss??

However, my thinking was that Conole would have received his current instructions from Noble, about the type of players to recruit.

Conole joined under Hadley, but Hadley transitioned to our WA/SA recruiter after Conole's hire. Conole was in charge by the 2012 draft.
 

Nunez

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If I can ask, who would you have picked had you been making the pick?

I was big on Brayshaw, but mainly because of the low floor. None of the other guys in the top 10 outside Naughton and possibly Cerra have really been much to write home about. In hindsight and with four years to judge, 2017 looks to be a particularly weak draft.

If the 2017 was drafted again today, I wonder who'd go #1. You'd have to think on exposed form it would be one of Bailey or Naughton.
 

The Flying Belgian

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If the 2017 was drafted again today, I wonder who'd go #1. You'd have to think on exposed form it would be one of Bailey or Naughton.

Probably Naughton for mine. Finding a dangerous KPF is a godsend. Still has plenty to work on, but for what he’s shown and what he could still be, that’s who I’d choose.
 

The Flying Belgian

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I didn't have a massive issue with the pick at the time but personally I wanted LDU.

There’s plenty of pick early in that draft that look “poor picks” but on the whole we’re probably on the positive side of the ledger with Rayner.

LDU continues to underwhelm. Thought he was due to take a massive step this year, but it never came.
 

bungalow_bill

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Cam Rayner only recently turned 22, I have enormous confidence that injury permitting he is going to have a great career.

It was common knowledge pre his drafting that he had an enormous amount of work to do on his endurance but his skill level was never doubted. The penny dropped for Cam during the 2021 preseason and he threw himself into working on his endurance, cruelly injury prevented us seeing the results of that hard work. The start of Cam's peak years are still a couple of seasons away, it's a big call but I wouldn't be surprised if Cam is near to Petracca/Dusty levels as an explosive midfielder/fwd when in his prime ie. 2024 onwards... bookmark it.:D

Remembering that until recently many felt that Petracca was not going to live up to expectations. If he stays injury free Cam has the potential to get to that level
 

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