Analysis 2021 draft thread

[Lions1024]

If we get the Ely pick right it would have been on balance a good draft. We didn't so it wasn't.

Who would you pick? I don’t think anyone selected after Ely would be best 22 in our team and would probably be in the same situation as Ely pl reserves for the past couple of years.

Best option is probably Nick Hind. But even he got delisted before showing some good form with Essendon.

 

[KissKiss]

Tom Sparrow

32

Tom Sparrow

Age

25

Ht

183cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.0

4star

K

6.0

2star

HB

9.0

5star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.0

4star

CL

3.0

4star

D

15.0

4star

K

6.0

2star

HB

9.0

4star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.0

3star

CL

3.0

4star

D

15.0

4star

K

6.0

3star

HB

9.0

5star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.0

4star

CL

3.0

5star

was the only other real highlight from my quick glance

 

[bungalow_bill]

Dev Robertson is looking like an astute pick up for our 2019 first rounder. Wilmot and Lohmann also look the goods. Most likely Ely is our only major first round misstep since Schache in 2015.

Even then Ely is not a write off as yet

 

[Quigley]

Robertson was second round

 

[Quigley]

Rayner is an interesting one for me in the sense that he has underperformed his draft position by a long way to date. He might still come good but it is hard to argue that virtually everyone would have rightly expected more from a number 1 pick. On the flip side, and from the outside looking in, I think he has had an enormous cultural influence on the club. He has bound the younger group and the place seems like a fun place to play. We are no longer losing guys we wanted to keep but are rather a destination club. That sort of player is invaluable to a group and especially one like the Lions. So whilst on paper he is looking like a poor pick I do think that is only half the story and I am not willing to classify it as such.

 

[Nunez]

Rayner is an interesting one for me in the sense that he has underperformed his draft position by a long way to date. He might still come good but it is hard to argue that virtually everyone would have rightly expected more from a number 1 pick. On the flip side, and from the outside looking in, I think he has had an enormous cultural influence on the club. He has bound the younger group and the place seems like a fun place to play. We are no longer losing guys we wanted to keep but are rather a destination club. That sort of player is invaluable to a group and especially one like the Lions. So whilst on paper he is looking like a poor pick I do think that is only half the story and I am not willing to classify it as such.

He's the type of pick that'll best be judged when he hits his prime. He was never going to peak early. I think we'll get a really good idea of the type of player Can will be this year.

 

[briztoon]

Conole has been with us since 2011.

Ambroglio since 2017.

Seems relatively logical to judge drafting and trading from those dates respectively.

I thought Conole started here as a junior recruiter, under the previous head recruiter. Maybe 2013 was his first year as boss??

However, my thinking was that Conole would have received his current instructions from Noble, about the type of players to recruit.

 

[briztoon]

Looking at recent drafts, there seems to usually be a pretty good top 30, and it drops off after that. It can vary year to year.

For that reason the big disappointment in this draft is Ely Smith. He was a reach nobody was interested in, and is yet to play a game. One year left but yes at this stage poor.

Tom Berry at 36 - yes it looks like last chance saloon. But he's about what you get at 36. Some chance of success. He has not been a complete dud.

Tom Joyce - gone but pick 40.

McFadyen - a bit unlucky given did a knee. Always makes it harder

Answerth - see what happens with form and injury. but at pick 55 you would take him every day of the week

So not a great draft

But we didn't have a flush hand

If we get the Ely pick right it would have been on balance a good draft. We didn't so it wasn't.

Every year there’s talk about the comparative strength of a draft class, based on their U16 Championships.

I know for the 2018 draft, it was considered to have a very deep elite top end, but no depth beyond the late first round.

This year was supposed to be be a very strong top end, and very good depth. But Covid ruined their last two years, and a lot of top Vic prospects being injured, meant it was hard to judge the top end talent.

We did have an U17 Championship last year, and the general consensus is that it’s got a good top depth, good depth through the first round, but not the overall depth of this years group.

 

[briztoon]

Rayner is an interesting one for me in the sense that he has underperformed his draft position by a long way to date. He might still come good but it is hard to argue that virtually everyone would have rightly expected more from a number 1 pick. On the flip side, and from the outside looking in, I think he has had an enormous cultural influence on the club. He has bound the younger group and the place seems like a fun place to play. We are no longer losing guys we wanted to keep but are rather a destination club. That sort of player is invaluable to a group and especially one like the Lions. So whilst on paper he is looking like a poor pick I do think that is only half the story and I am not willing to classify it as such.

Pretty much was the consensus number 1 player that year.

Not really a great draft from the early players selected.

We picked the wrong year to bottom out.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Rayner is an interesting one for me in the sense that he has underperformed his draft position by a long way to date. He might still come good but it is hard to argue that virtually everyone would have rightly expected more from a number 1 pick. On the flip side, and from the outside looking in, I think he has had an enormous cultural influence on the club. He has bound the younger group and the place seems like a fun place to play. We are no longer losing guys we wanted to keep but are rather a destination club. That sort of player is invaluable to a group and especially one like the Lions. So whilst on paper he is looking like a poor pick I do think that is only half the story and I am not willing to classify it as such.

If I can ask, who would you have picked had you been making the pick?

I was big on Brayshaw, but mainly because of the low floor. None of the other guys in the top 10 outside Naughton and possibly Cerra have really been much to write home about. In hindsight and with four years to judge, 2017 looks to be a particularly weak draft.

 

[M Malice]

Cam Rayner only recently turned 22, I have enormous confidence that injury permitting he is going to have a great career.

It was common knowledge pre his drafting that he had an enormous amount of work to do on his endurance but his skill level was never doubted. The penny dropped for Cam during the 2021 preseason and he threw himself into working on his endurance, cruelly injury prevented us seeing the results of that hard work. The start of Cam's peak years are still a couple of seasons away, it's a big call but I wouldn't be surprised if Cam is near to Petracca/Dusty levels as an explosive midfielder/fwd when in his prime ie. 2024 onwards... bookmark it.

 

[Quigley]

If I can ask, who would you have picked had you been making the pick?

I was big on Brayshaw, but mainly because of the low floor. None of the other guys in the top 10 outside Naughton and possibly Cerra have really been much to write home about. In hindsight and with four years to judge, 2017 looks to be a particularly weak draft.

I didn't have a massive issue with the pick at the time but personally I wanted LDU.

 

[dlanod]

I thought Conole started here as a junior recruiter, under the previous head recruiter. Maybe 2013 was his first year as boss??

However, my thinking was that Conole would have received his current instructions from Noble, about the type of players to recruit.

Conole joined under Hadley, but Hadley transitioned to our WA/SA recruiter after Conole's hire. Conole was in charge by the 2012 draft.

 

[Nunez]

If I can ask, who would you have picked had you been making the pick?

I was big on Brayshaw, but mainly because of the low floor. None of the other guys in the top 10 outside Naughton and possibly Cerra have really been much to write home about. In hindsight and with four years to judge, 2017 looks to be a particularly weak draft.

If the 2017 was drafted again today, I wonder who'd go #1. You'd have to think on exposed form it would be one of Bailey or Naughton.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

If the 2017 was drafted again today, I wonder who'd go #1. You'd have to think on exposed form it would be one of Bailey or Naughton.

Probably Naughton for mine. Finding a dangerous KPF is a godsend. Still has plenty to work on, but for what he’s shown and what he could still be, that’s who I’d choose.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I didn't have a massive issue with the pick at the time but personally I wanted LDU.

There’s plenty of pick early in that draft that look “poor picks” but on the whole we’re probably on the positive side of the ledger with Rayner.

LDU continues to underwhelm. Thought he was due to take a massive step this year, but it never came.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Cam Rayner only recently turned 22, I have enormous confidence that injury permitting he is going to have a great career.

It was common knowledge pre his drafting that he had an enormous amount of work to do on his endurance but his skill level was never doubted. The penny dropped for Cam during the 2021 preseason and he threw himself into working on his endurance, cruelly injury prevented us seeing the results of that hard work. The start of Cam's peak years are still a couple of seasons away, it's a big call but I wouldn't be surprised if Cam is near to Petracca/Dusty levels as an explosive midfielder/fwd when in his prime ie. 2024 onwards... bookmark it.

Remembering that until recently many felt that Petracca was not going to live up to expectations. If he stays injury free Cam has the potential to get to that level

 

[bungalow_bill]

There’s plenty of pick early in that draft that look “poor picks” but on the whole we’re probably on the positive side of the ledger with Rayner.

LDU continues to underwhelm. Thought he was due to take a massive step this year, but it never came.

Dow looks a bust as well

 

[Nunez]

Probably Naughton for mine. Finding a dangerous KPF is a godsend. Still has plenty to work on, but for what he’s shown and what he could still be, that’s who I’d choose.

Agreed. Would think Bailey would go pick 2. We really lucked out with him.

 

[dlanod]

Dow looks a bust as well

He was my mildly preferred option as a pure mid over a burst mid/forward, not that I got too attached given Rayner was the obvious pick.

 

[Tom14]

Probably Naughton for mine. Finding a dangerous KPF is a godsend. Still has plenty to work on, but for what he’s shown and what he could still be, that’s who I’d choose.

Naughton clear 1, Brayshaw clear 2 at this stage I think. I personally would take Bailey over Brayshaw for us given the goal upside and speed and we have enough inside mids currently, but he's better performed to date.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Yep. And it's tough to know without knowing all the inner machinations. But if we were expecting it, then effectively, we saw a trap coming and still fell for it. I don't recall another team having a first round pick used as part of the matching process for a long time. We've seen some really shrewd trading from other clubs with [bid > trade out > match > trade back in] scenarios, or trading up to get ahead of the bid (getting a first round pick + Coleman), or trading back behind the bid and accruing points/future picks.

But we did trade back to accrue points to match that bid, with Fremantle. We didn't use a first to match.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Naughton clear 1, Brayshaw clear 2 at this stage I think. I personally would take Bailey over Brayshaw for us given the goal upside and speed and we have enough inside mids currently, but he's better performed to date.

Yep at the moment perhaps but Bailey with the higher ceiling

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Naughton clear 1, Brayshaw clear 2 at this stage I think. I personally would take Bailey over Brayshaw for us given the goal upside and speed and we have enough inside mids currently, but he's better performed to date.

I'd agree with that. I think.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I think people are judging young players too quickly in this thread. Sure, you can make an interim evaluation at any point, but there's still a lot to play out for Rayner and Ely. Their careers aren't over yet. I don't feel a player can be judged properly after three years if they've suffered numerous injuries and have to beat out All-Australian calibre players to win a place in the side at their best position.