Analysis 2021 draft thread

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mattsmob

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I'm really hoping Geelong's Clark trade falls off, leaving Freo with both 19 and 22. Not sure how many spots Freo have to fill but they could take our 14 for 19+22. Works out to be a pick 30 equivalent trade in our favor, but they get the benefit of having 3 first round picks 6/8/14. Leaves us with 18/19/22.

We won't be taking more than 3 this year so if we could somehow land 27 from pies, we can palm it off to Freo as well if needed.
I feel like that trade would pretty much take away any chance of getting a kid with really elite traits that could fall to 14. It's probably unlikely any of these top 25 players we get could make a big impact on our team as we don't have many spots to fill in the 22, for that reason I'd be trying to get 1-2 of the highest rated kids we can rather than 2-3 in the next tier down.
 

mpal6

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I feel like that trade would pretty much take away any chance of getting a kid with really elite traits that could fall to 14. It's probably unlikely any of these top 25 players we get could make a big impact on our team as we don't have many spots to fill in the 22, for that reason I'd be trying to get 1-2 of the highest rated kids we can rather than 2-3 in the next tier down.
Agreed but the reason I'm open to this idea is beyond top 4 this year they've thrown a blanket on the next 30 at this stage. Lack of big exposed form due to COVID affected nationals is playing into this theory as well. We don't have major glaring holes in the list, so if we draft based on talent I'd rather pick all 3 of ours in first 30. It'll avoid us taking a punt at 50s somewhere.
 

mattsmob

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Agreed but the reason I'm open to this idea is beyond top 4 this year they've thrown a blanket on the next 30 at this stage. We don't have major glaring holes in the list, so if we draft based on talent I'd rather pick all 3 of ours in first 30. It'll avoid us taking a punt at 50s somewhere.
Yeah I see it a little differently with 3-4 guys that we could get at 14 being clearly better than the rest of the 10-30 players. Which is the main reason I wouldn't be against using our future first to get pick 18 into the top 10 potentially.
 

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briztoon

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Agreed but the reason I'm open to this idea is beyond top 4 this year they've thrown a blanket on the next 30 at this stage. Lack of big exposed form due to COVID affected nationals is playing into this theory as well. We don't have major glaring holes in the list, so if we draft based on talent I'd rather pick all 3 of ours in first 30. It'll avoid us taking a punt at 50s somewhere.
I think it was briztoon who quoted someone who disagreed with the blanket theory. Multiple tiers from memory so I'd prefer we kept our highest pick (14)
Twomey for a start has said he has 3 tiers. A top 4, then the next 8, then from 13 to 30.

But the thing with Twomey’s (and every other draft watcher) rankings is that he has the two father son kids in his top 4, so the top two tiers are effectively 10 players.

Twomey doesn’t have Sinn or Goater in his top two tiers, but that doesn’t mean every other club will see it that way either.

A couple of the AFL Draft Central writers, and other draft watchers have also put up their own tiers.
 

mattsmob

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Pick 41 opens up a few things that might not have been available before the Fort trade. Obviously the pick has more points attached to it so better for trading but also there should be a few nice players there. Sam Banks and Ronald Fejo Jr are two outside classy wing/half-back options if we take a KPP with our first picks. Leek Aleer and Jack Williams are two KPP that offer different things as players that could compliment a draft with two mids in the first round. A very small part of a small trade but a pick upgrade in the 3rd round has opened a few options which is nice.
 

blueiris

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Twomey for a start has said he has 3 tiers. A top 4, then the next 8, then from 13 to 30.

But the thing with Twomey’s (and every other draft watcher) rankings is that he has the two father son kids in his top 4, so the top two tiers are effectively 10 players.

Twomey doesn’t have Sinn or Goater in his top two tiers, but that doesn’t mean every other club will see it that way either.

A couple of the AFL Draft Central writers, and other draft watchers have also put up their own tiers.
Top 4 then from 5 to 9 then 10 to 20 is apparently even and pretty hard to judge on best players available is what I heard Twomey say a few weeks ago on Road to the draft
 

briztoon

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Top 4 then from 5 to 9 then 10 to 20 is apparently even and pretty hard to judge on best players available is what I heard Twomey say a few weeks ago on Road to the draft
I believe there’s a few more in that second tier. Twomey did list them in one podcast, which is why I thought I remembered it as 8 players.

Also believe that third tier extends beyond 20. there’s some players outside his top 20 that I’d prefer to have over players he has inside his top 20.
 

Jason mp

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I believe there’s a few more in that second tier. Twomey did list them in one podcast, which is why I thought I remembered it as 8 players.

Also believe that third tier extends beyond 20. there’s some players outside his top 20 that I’d prefer to have over players he has inside his top 20.
If we go to the draft with pre bid 14, 18 and 41 and don't trade them out who are the ideal 3 you would want and think could realistically be available to us?
 

briztoon

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Top 4 then from 5 to 9 then 10 to 20 is apparently even and pretty hard to judge on best players available is what I heard Twomey say a few weeks ago on Road to the draft
I just hope Twomey is right about where he has Sinn and Goater.

Listening to him today talk about how Rachelle would be a good fit for Adelaide at their first pick, I hope that happens. Can’t see it personally, but he was a top 5 prospect coming in to the year.

We’ll need players like Rachelle and Sonsie going top 15 for the kids I like to slide to us.
 

mattsmob

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I believe there’s a few more in that second tier. Twomey did list them in one podcast, which is why I thought I remembered it as 8 players.

Also believe that third tier extends beyond 20. there’s some players outside his top 20 that I’d prefer to have over players he has inside his top 20.
Agreed, outside of kids already attached to clubs there's probably 14 guys that i'd be happy to add at our pick 14, chances are the clubs above us take at least one that isn't in my list of 14 so I'm pretty happy with where that pick is.
 

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mattsmob

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I just hope Twomey is right about where he has Sinn and Goater.

Listening to him today talk about how Rachelle would be a good fit for Adelaide at their first pick, I hope that happens. Can’t see it personally, but he was a top 5 prospect coming in to the year.

We’ll need players like Rachelle and Sonsie going top 15 for the kids I like to slide to us.
Yeah I'm really surprised by the lack of talk about Goater at this stage particularly from Twomey who usually gets his information from clubs themselves, haven't even heard him talk about Goater as a top 10 pick which is good news for us.
 

briztoon

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If we go to the draft with pre bid 14, 18 and 41 and don't trade them out who are the ideal 3 you would want and think could realistically be available to us?
Realistically available to us, I have no idea at this stage.

I’m confident Van Rooyen and Wilmot will be there at 14. One or both could be gone by 18.

I believe some of the SA kids will slide, but I’m not interested in them.

I can see Chesser being there at 18.

Hobbs might slide out of the top 10 if teams shy away from a pure inside mid who lacks speed.

Honestly it’s hard to gage because a lot of the Vic kids missed most of their games due to injury, so there’s only a real small sample size on them.

My gut feel is that outside of Horne-Francis, Erasmus, Amiss and Johnson, teams will go the Vic kids, Johnson to go at the Eagles pick or maybe Sydney.
 

mattsmob

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If we go to the draft with pre bid 14, 18 and 41 and don't trade them out who are the ideal 3 you would want and think could realistically be available to us?
Realistically for me taking into account KPP as a need at some stage in this draft is probably Goater at 14, JVR at 18 and Banks at 41.
Could argue Goater and JVR might not be realistic at those spots so alternatives for me are Johnson/Sinn/NWM at 14 and although he may be a reach at this point Bazzo at 18 assuming in an ideal world Banks is there at 41.
 

blueiris

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Realistically available to us, I have no idea at this stage.

I’m confident Van Rooyen and Wilmot will be there at 14. One or both could be gone by 18.

I believe some of the SA kids will slide, but I’m not interested in them.

I can see Chesser being there at 18.

Hobbs might slide out of the top 10 if teams shy away from a pure inside mid who lacks speed.

Honestly it’s hard to gage because a lot of the Vic kids missed most of their games due to injury, so there’s only a real small sample size on them.

My gut feel is that outside of Horne-Francis, Erasmus, Amiss and Johnson, teams will go the Vic kids, Johnson to go at the Eagles pick or maybe Sydney.
Chesser Goater and Sinn could all be available in our 2 picks range and can all play at half-back/midfield which is apparently what we’re looking at
 

blueiris

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Realistically for me taking into account KPP as a need at some stage in this draft is probably Goater at 14, JVR at 18 and Banks at 41.
Could argue Goater and JVR might not be realistic at those spots so alternatives for me are Johnson/Sinn/NWM at 14 and although he may be a reach at this point Bazzo at 18 assuming in an ideal world Banks is there at 41.
NWM Cal Twomey has in that top 10 range mentioned Essendon or StKilda as possibilities
 

mpal6

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Pick 41 opens up a few things that might not have been available before the Fort trade. Obviously the pick has more points attached to it so better for trading but also there should be a few nice players there. Sam Banks and Ronald Fejo Jr are two outside classy wing/half-back options if we take a KPP with our first picks. Leek Aleer and Jack Williams are two KPP that offer different things as players that could compliment a draft with two mids in the first round. A very small part of a small trade but a pick upgrade in the 3rd round has opened a few options which is nice.
Leek Aleer has been really impressive. Videos show he has a good read of where the ball drop is usually and does some things in general play which are more instinct based, hard to teach those things. Has a fair bit to work with, will be exciting if we get him.
 

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